The Olduvai cliff: are the lights going out already?

33 Comments on "The Olduvai cliff: are the lights going out already?"

Neil on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 9:26 am 



It could just mean there’s a war on.

paulo1 on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 9:32 am 



That would be my guess, too.

ghung on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 9:59 am 



Then, again, it could be part of a bigger, much more complex process. Be it war or some other factor, decline has many faces. I went to Ugo’s blog and some of the comments were interesting – Glow-in-the-dark kitchen magnets:

“Jason HeppenstallNovember 13, 2014 at 8:39 AM

Ugo, here in Britain we keep being informed that there is ‘no chance’ of blackouts this winter – despite the operating margin for electricity production being razor thin due to plant outages and shutdowns.

And then today, from the power distribution company, everyone in my area received a glow in the dark fridge magnet with instructions for what to do in case of a blackout.

Just in case …

————————

JudyNovember 14, 2014 at 1:55 AM

We received our fridge magnet yesterday in the Midlands. You can imagine how easy it will be to get through to that number in a blackout! And what will they say anyway? “Sorry you have no power” – yes really helpful! I just hope they are honest enough to allow planned power cuts rather than sudden blackouts.”

Looking at other indicators, demand and prices for coal have fallen off significantly. Demand for metallurgical coal is reaching a 7 year low, and prices for Australian thermal coal are way off of their highs (much like oil): most recent peak at $141.94 (Jan 20011), now at $68.45 (down $16.64, YOY). Much of this is due to the slow-down in China, and exchange rates are likely involved, but still, it’s starting to look like Steve’s ‘Triangle of Doom’ all over (see Economic Undertow).

Economies have a minimum operating level below which current systems can’t/won’t be maintained. The repercussions of this slow train wreck will play out in as many varied ways as there are reasons for decline.

meld on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 10:01 am 



The richer nations will keep the lights on while the poorer nations will slowly collapse. One day the poorer nations peoples will be so battle hardened and pissed off they’ll simply move in and take whats left of the richer nations. I’s say that won’t happen until the 2040s though at a guess.

J-Gav on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 10:08 am 



When Duncan’s theory first came out, it really grabbed my attention. Then, after revisiting it over the years, I found what I believe are a number of flaws.

A couple of examples: His making “Industrial Civilization” begin in 1930 seems arbitrary even though he justifies it by saying that’s when world oil production per capita (the ONLY indicator used in his model, by the way)reached 30% of its development and that the so-called ‘leading 30%’ is the definition of a ‘pulse.’

I’m no raging optimist by any measure but his cliff looks a tad steep to me too – and why does Industrial Civilization have to be squeezed into a very tidy 100 years in the first place?

ghung on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 10:22 am 



J-Gav: “I’m no raging optimist by any measure but his cliff looks a tad steep to me too…”

I think a lot of “steep decline” analysts, especially those with non-economic backgrounds, failed to understand economies’ ability to extend-and-pretend via financialization and market manipulation. Many of these systems are no longer paying their own way in a macro sense (haven’t been for a while), and ‘robbing Peter to pay Paul’ can only work for so long.

I’m with Gail on this one; the next black swan will again be financial in it’s origin. When all bets are called, our ability to support these complex systems will be insufficient since there’s no Plan B. That’s when the wild ride down begins, and it won’t be the smooth curve we see so often in these graphs.

Davy on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 11:20 am 



The modern global system has a brittle resiliency in its complexity, vast distribution networks, efficiencies of economies of scale. That is until energy intensity and systematic disruptions occure. There is considerable momentum in our global system. The problem is the brittleness. When it does break it will be “Katty bar the door”

JuanP on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 11:22 am 



I reread Duncan’s 2000 revision of his Olduvai paper. I hadn’t read it in a while. It is an interesting read, I find the historical data particularly useful.

I agree with his assessment that electricity is essential to industrial civilization. Places with renewable energy sources will enjoy an advantage in the future. Electricity is as important as oil to industrial civilization.

I think a renewable energy system and efficient appliances are a must for all preppers. The electric grid will become increasingly unreliable.

My Uruguayan farm will be off the grid. PVs and a small 400w wind gen with a battery bank. I have very good wind most of the year and my house is on the top of a small hill. My neighbors are connected to the grid and have medium and large gens and power tools I can borrow should I ever need them. I am using two of their diesel gens for the house’s construction.

JuanP on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 11:22 am 



Here’s the link, http://dieoff.com/page224.htm

ghung on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 11:39 am 



Thanks for the link, Juan. I don’t know about availability or prices in Uruguay, but these guys have great prices on PV (“world’s lowest prices”) and are experienced with international orders. They often quote prices for export only.They also have ‘blemished’ full power panels at a big discount:
sunelec.com

I have no affiliation with these folks, but have ordered from them with great results.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 11:39 am 



JuanP — Any chance that you could locate the general location of your soon-to-be most excellent doomstead using Google Maps and send me the link? I would be very interested to check out the general lay of the land in the area your property is in. Please? 🙂

JuanP on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 12:27 pm 



Thanks, ghung. NR, https://maps.google.com/maps?output=classic&dg=brw

Northwest Resident on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 12:34 pm 



JuanP — Thanks. But when I click on that link, it just shows me a non-satellite map of Oregon. ???

Here’s what I was hoping for:

https://www.google.com/maps/@-32.7826519,-60.9429362,4358835m/data=!3m1!1e3

Use your mouse wheel to zoom in on Uruguay. It is amazing how detailed it gets as you zoom in closer and closer. I’m not asking for you to pinpoint your location — maybe just the general area. Like — are you close to Lago Rincon del Bonete? Or Tacuarembó?

Looks like Uruguay has a lot of grassy plains with tree-lined streams/rivers flowing through. I found several very isolated ranches/farms already — doubt I found your place yet though…

JuanP on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 12:43 pm 



NR, If you go to the satellite layer, you will see my friends’ farm, all the forest area in dark green. If you follow the line that cuts the forest and goes ESE from the farm house, you will see a white square. That clearing has another one south of it with a lot of rocks in the middle. My lot is centered around the rocks.

I have my country’s most beautiful national park a half day hike or horseback ride away. And there is nobody around for miles. The place is desolate.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 12:49 pm 



JuanP — Sounds awesome. I wish I could see it! I swear to God, when I click that link you provided, I get a Google Maps page that is centered right over Oregon. I can click the satellite view, but it is still a satellite view of Oregon. That link you provided has no GPS coordinates — compare it to the link I posted. You probably have a cookie in your cache that enables Google to determine what exact GPS coordinates you want to see. I probably have a cookie in my cache too, but one that indicates Oregon is my “default location”. Aren’t Google Maps fun!

JuanP on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 1:05 pm 



I will try from a PC when I get my hands on one. I probably need an app for my iPad, but I don’t like installing any. Your link didn’t work on my iPad.

The place is in “Treinta y Tres”, on the East of the country. The forested area ESE of “Quebrada de los Cuervos” and west of road 8 is my friends’ farm. Then follow instructions above.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 1:13 pm 



JuanP — Is your friend’s land on the west bank of Arroyo Yerbal Chico river/creek? With a single rectangular structure on one side of the road and another circular structure on the other side of the road?

ghung on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 1:25 pm 



Nice, Juan. Does your friend let you use his pool? (looks like a nice place)

Is that a pond SSW of your rock pile? What kind of trees are those?

I spent a couple of hours a few days ago exploring Urugay; not many trees in most areas. Cut down by evil Europeans?

JuanP on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 1:28 pm 



NR, It is East of the arroyo and West of road 8. The dark forest area that is a pine plantation.

ghung on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 1:29 pm 



Juan’s rock pile:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Treinta+y+Tres,+Uruguay/@-32.9729538,-54.3535082,296m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x950be91bda63d345:0xc9dd5dc0cfb5e986

JuanP on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 1:33 pm 



Yes, I get to use the pool when I want once I get there. The place is a tourist farm and the family doesn’t live there, they only go when they have interesting guests to socialize. Not much of a social scene there.

That is a depression that collects water and will likely become a pond.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 1:40 pm 



JuanP — Very remote, like you say. Extremely cool! What kind of native wildlife do you have around there? Deer, for example? Rabbits? Anything worth eating? How about fish in that river or creek — any “big” ones?

JuanP on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 1:44 pm 



Thanks, ghung! The pine plantation is something called American Pine.

Uruguay had two kinds of native forests. Thin lines of hardwood hammocks along the creeks, streams, and rivers. And also, huge palm groves hundreds of miles long.

When the Spanish introduced cattle there in the 17th Century, those cattle grew feral and bred like crazy. In the next two centuries they ate all the palm sprouts, almost extinguishing what had been the most widespread tree species in the country.

The hardwoods were chopped down because they make the most delicious BBQs imaginable. In the seventies using hardwood for BBQs was made illegal and we started using commercially grown Eucalyptus nationwide.

JuanP on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 2:00 pm 



NR, There isn’t much wildlife left there, it is all very humanized. There used to be mountain lions and crocodiles, and boas but they were hunted to extinction. There are no large predators left. The most common are deer, armadillo, skunks, turtles, jackrabbits, wild boar, rattlesnakes, and very noisy parrots in some places. Many birds and small mammals.

My favorite thing of that place is the night sky. It is indescribable. There are so many stars and it is so, so dark on moonless cloudy nights you can’t see your hands in front of your face without a light. Not a light in sight anywhere around. I used to camp in that area a lot as a teenager.

shortonoil on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 2:09 pm 



Anyone who has taken a close look at our site, or our study is aware that we see 2012 as a key point. It is the point were one half of the energy content of petroleum is needed to produce the petroleum. It is also the point when petroleum prices began their decline. I read Duncan’s book many years ago, he is an excellent physicist, and I respect his analysis.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

Northwest Resident on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 2:31 pm 



JuanP — I’m expecting an invitation to the housewarming party once you get it all put together. A camp fire on a warm star-filled night, hanging with friends, maybe a few shots of tequila and a big cigar to puff on. It doesn’t get any better than that!

yoananda on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 4:00 pm 



we won’t be the first civilization to collapse in one night, of un-natural causes …

“we, civilization, now know that we are mortal” (Paul Valery)

I have listed many of them on my blog (but it’s in french).

Maybe it will be sudden, maybe it will take as long to decline as to build this civilization.
Maybe we will find a way out (biotech ? fusion power ? z-machine ? …)

But we have little time before the heart is touched and everything falls down.

Russie have sent an ultimatum to my country (France) to get it’s “Mistral” (warship). My government is silly and incompetent enough to play with that fire. Every month we have a risk of major worldwide collapse event like this one.

We are already pushing our luck !!!!

J-Gav on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 4:35 pm 



Yoananda – Pushing our luck is definitely something we are doing, and have been for some while.

“Le vent se lève, il faut tenter de vivre,” is another phrase from Valéry (“The wind is up, let us attempt to live.”)

yoananda on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 5:38 pm 



Like many (most) french, I’m ashamed of my government. They are so stupid they could trigger a war just to hide their incompetence.
Nobody ever imagined in our country to have such a bunch of coward and idiots runing the country.
That’s not reassuring in these troubled times.

I think it’s related to Olduvai theory. War is a logic consequence, and political decline or instability too …
It’s just the crisis finding it’s path in our society weaknesses.

ghung on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 6:08 pm 



yoananda: “Like many (most) french, I’m ashamed of my government.”

Wasn’t it Alexis de Tocqueville said; “In democracy we get the government we deserve”?

Seems we have a common problem.

Richard Ralph Roehl on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 6:15 pm 



Juan:

Your Uruguayan farm? Sounds cool. Tell us more about your survival plans. And exactly where is your farm located? We’d like to drop by and rob… ah… er… and pick up some survival pointers

respect-full-lie yours,

Mad Max

J-Gav on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 6:36 pm 



Yoananda –

I’ve given up being ashamed of ‘our’ governments for reasons of maintaining personal sanity. Incompetence, cowardliness and greed are all to be expected … virtually everywhere in positions of power within our present ‘system.’

Unfortunately for the Millennials (otherwise known as ‘Generation Y’), the really hard times are yet to come. What is to be said about Generation Z? ‘The powers that be’ obviously don’t give a fuck. So it’s up to the rest of us to try and salvage what we can …

By the way, what is your blog site? I’ll have a look, si vous permettez …

yoananda on Fri, 14th Nov 2014 7:05 pm 



J-Gav,
just click on my nickname here, there’s my blog link with it.
It isn’t just about peak oil. Last series of article was on jihad for example. I tried to (re)introduce “collective behavior” in the equation.

I recommend these readings :
http://yoananda.wordpress.com/2013/10/04/compilation-les-effondrements-de-civilisation-connus/

http://yoananda.wordpress.com/2014/06/11/non-pas-le-mais-les-pics-petroliers/

https://yoananda.wordpress.com/2014/11/02/de-la-fin-du-petrole-a-lage-des-low-et-light-tech/

(very) short summury of my “kondratieff like theory” :

we have a pattern about crashing civilisations :

pre-historic man : hunting lead population expansion then too much hunting lead to big animals disapear, then, we are saved by farming.

Then sumer : first cities & farming lead to salted land, lead to desert in previouly “fertile cressent”, crops disapear, and we are saved by moving else where.

Rome : roman roads, expanding by military conquest, lead to disminshing return, slow collapse, and middle age.

Middle age : invention of blast fumace, lead to iron plough, population expansion, then tree dispear, starving, black plague, and 100 year’s war

Then (I skip some parts) we “discover” coal and steam machine, lead to “peak coal”, and 2 world war.

Then oil replace coal, and lead to rapide expansion, and, as alway’s, we hit the limits.

Each time we found another solution, but each time it was painful.

7 billion of people, it could be very very painful this time !!!!

each time we have : technological innovation, prosperity for a time, rapid population growth, too much people, socialism to handle scarcity, and the collapse (sudden or slow, but collapse eitherway) … until a new discovery is made, sometimes a few centyries later.