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Page added on November 13, 2014
IEA: Crises cloud world energy outlook
The International Energy Agency called on world leaders to take decisive action to stem future energy demand in its latest World Energy Outlook report released on Wednesday.
The Paris-based energy consultancy said that total energy demand is set to rise by 37 percent by 2040, and that annual investment of $900 billion (723 billion euros) in oil and gas development is needed by the 2030s to meet the projection.
The authors estimate that oil supply will increase from 90 million to 104 barrels per day over the next 25 years, but warn that a waning oil boom in the US could threaten energy security, as consumers will increasingly have to look to the conflict-ridden Middle East as the world’s number one supplier.
“A well-supplied oil market in the short-term should not disguise the challenges that lie ahead, as the world is set to rely more heavily on a relatively small number of producing countries,” said IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol.
The authors predict that China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest oil-consuming country by 2030, as Asia is on track to make up 60 percent of total global energy use.
Rise of renewables
It’s not all bad news, according the report, which predicts that renewable energies will leave coal in the dust as the leading source of electricity, accounting for nearly half of the global increase in power generation.
“The development path for a growing world population and economy is less energy-intensive than it used to be.”
11 Comments on "IEA: Crises cloud world energy outlook"
bobinget on Thu, 13th Nov 2014 8:56 am
Correction: that should read: ” authors estimate that oil supply (needs to) increase from 90 million to 104 barrels per day over the next 25 years.
We guess Greenland and Arctic Shelf are already kissed off for ice melt. Without this oil, there is no way we will be ‘keeping demand in check’.
What do we to do with 150 million Bangladeshi?
paulo1 on Thu, 13th Nov 2014 9:08 am
re commment: What do we to do with 150 million Bangladeshi?
and Floridians, ole Miss Gulf, La, every bay and estuary that has habitation including BC lower Mainland?
J-Gav on Thu, 13th Nov 2014 9:49 am
Renewables “nearly half of the global increase in power generation?”
Well, where’s the ‘more than half’ coming from then? Coal “left in the dust?” There is a crap-ton* of evidence which indicates it includes coal, nuclear, NG etc. Halleluia!
*In The Urban Dictionary, a crap-ton is described as equalling 4 shitloads.
ghung on Thu, 13th Nov 2014 10:22 am
“A well-supplied oil market in the short-term should not disguise the challenges that lie ahead, as the world is set to rely more heavily on a relatively small number of producing countries….
In other word, it ain’t happening. Seems they just can’t come out and say it: “It just ain’t happening”.
All the King’s horses
And all the King’s men (not even Nony) Can put the oil back in the ground again.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 13th Nov 2014 10:36 am
J-Gav — I’m pretty sure you meant to write: “a crap-ton is described as equaling 4 shitloads OF CRAP!”
🙂
Feemer on Thu, 13th Nov 2014 1:17 pm
How about instead of investing almost a $trillion a year in fossil fuels, we invest the same amount in renewables and energy conservation/efficiency. a trillion $ world wide would jump start a transition.
Harquebus on Thu, 13th Nov 2014 3:48 pm
It will be impossible to manufacture renewables when oil is in short supply. There will be higher priorities, people have to eat. Modern agriculture is the process of turning fossil fuels into food.
ghung on Thu, 13th Nov 2014 4:29 pm
Harq – Since preservation/refrigeration are a big part of industrial-scale agriculture, and solar/wind are great partnered with refrigeration, perhaps they’ll be part of that priority. Of course, without industrial-scale agriculture and all of its components, everything else comes apart with 7+ billion people to feed. No production/manufacturing of anything much at scale. We’re pretty much all in on this industrial thingy.
Davy on Thu, 13th Nov 2014 4:31 pm
Hark, that’s the truth especially considering the high upfront cost and the longish return on investment. When complexity and energy intensity compress so will the most capital and technical of industries. We are basically in an energy trap that will cripple the economy while crippling liquid fuels supplies causing an inclusive downward spiral. There is no way to change the declining value of oil and the systematic bifurcation that comes with lower complexity and energy intensity.
We can goal seek all we want hoping substitution, technology, knowledge, and the markets will save the day. There was a time when they did but exponential growth in a finite world hits limits. The approach to limits are called diminishing returns. Does anyone here besides marm and the NOo not see and feel diminishing returns?
ghung on Thu, 13th Nov 2014 4:47 pm
Lets see, Davy; oil was down almost 4% today; I just saw a story on TV claiming foreclosures are rising again (+7% in Sept.), but stocks are doing great they say.
WTI – $74.29. Diminishing returns?
Nony on Thu, 13th Nov 2014 6:34 pm
Hubbert, Deffeyes, Campbell and all the classic peakers looking dumber and dumber. Adelman looking smarter and smarter.