Peak Oil is You
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Page added on November 9, 2014
The EIA’s International Energy Statistics
The EIA, a few days ago posted their International Energy Statistics. They publish lots of statistics here but on monthly basis I only follow their production of world Crude Oil including Lease Condensate.
The data on all charts below is Crude + Condensate production through July 2104 and is in thousand barrels per day.
World C+C production was up 168,000 bpd to 77,023,000 bpd. The high, so far, was in February at 77,409,000 bpd.
Non-OPEC C+C was down 135,000 bpd from it high so far. It has been on a 9 month plateau high.
That surge upward in world C+C production was, of course all US production. Without US production Non-OPEC production is 1,365,000 bpd below the peak in November, 2010 and is currently below the level hit on November, 2003. World C+C less US is 2,069,000 bpd below the peak of January 2011.
I believe that Non-OPEC production, less US, is well past its all time high. I think we will see considerable decline in Non-OPEC less US production in 2015. It remains to be seen whether US production will keep Non-OPEC production increasing. But I am predicting that US production will not keep Non-OPEC production increasing past 2015.
The EIA C+C data above is through July while the MOMR Crude Only data is through September. (The MOMR with October data will be out Wednesday.) I have predicted world C+C to peak no later than next year, World peak still depends on what OPEC does. I believe OPEC will decline after 2015 also but that is just my guess.
The biggest loser in July was China, down 175,000 bpd to 4,084,000 bpd.
The biggest gainer, outside OPEC was Kazakhstan, up 124,000 bpd to 1,641,000 bpd. The biggest OPEC C+C gainers in July was Libya, up 200,000 and Saudi Arabia, up 150,000 bpd. I will have the OPEC MOMR post on Wednesday, Nov. 12.
Russia is always of interest. Russia had a bad month in July, down 92,000 bpd to 10,003,000 bpd. Russia has since recovered and are producing around the same amount they produced earlier in the year. The Russian web site CDU TEK always has Russian C+C production about 400,000 bpd higher than the EIA reports. I have no idea why this is the case. Russia list daily production in thousands of tons per day. You must be registered to get their monthly and annual data. Their Registration Page is all in Russian with no translation button so I cannot figure it out.
Half the world’s crude oil production is in decline, down 2,834,000 bpd since the peak January 2011. The chart is starting to look like the classic bell curve.
And even the Middle East with 32 percent of world crude + condensate production may also have peaked, down 625,000 bpd since the peak in August 2011.
But North America is booming. With about 18 percent of world’s C+C production it is keeping peak oil at bay for perhaps one more year.
Other News:
Harold Hamm says oil prices are headed back up:
Oil Baron’s $433 million Bet that OPEC Blinks First
Harold Hamm called OPEC a “toothless tiger.” Now, he’s backing up that comment by unloading his company’s oil hedges in anticipation that OPEC won’t engage in a price war with American producers. In Wednesday’s earnings release, Hamm said:
We view the recent downdraft in oil prices as unsustainable given the lack of fundamental change in supply and demand. Accordingly, we have elected to monetize nearly all of our outstanding oil hedges, allowing us to fully participate in what we anticipate will be an oil price recovery.
‘Small oil’ could end up with a big debt problem
In order to fund the rapid growth, exploration and production companies have borrowed heavily. The energy sector accounts for 17.4 percent of the high-yield bond market, up from 12 percent in 2002, according to Citi Research.
“A lot of these smaller companies, in particular the smaller frackers, they rely on debt, and the debt markets have been wide and open for them,” Gregory Zuckerman, author of “The Frackers,” told CNBC’s “Power Lunch.” “It not clear it’s going to be (that way) going forward.”
The question is whether companies can keep their balance sheets healthy and continue to grow in the face of falling prices. U.S. oil futures have fallen about 24 percent from a high of $103.66 in June.
21 Comments on "The EIA’s International Energy Statistics"
Plantagenet on Sun, 9th Nov 2014 4:44 pm
I like that prediction —— “one more year to peak oil”. Ever since fracking pushed up production from the 2005-9 plateau I’ve been waiting for a new prediction of when peak oil (including fracking) would occur
MSN Fanboy on Sun, 9th Nov 2014 4:58 pm
Peak oil will be between the 2025-2035 timeframe.
Check out this link:
http://www.tonicmovies.com/en/popular/684/oil/1.html
As we can see it will be very slippy LOL
shortonoil on Sun, 9th Nov 2014 5:41 pm
I put this up at Ron’s site an hour, or so ago. I’ll re-post it here. Remember, we are talking about all liquids. Conventional (the most important of the liquid hydrocarbons) peaked in 2005, and total energy from petroleum peaked in 2000.
Ron said:
“I have predicted world C+C to peak no later than next year”
I think you may be a year early, 2016 looks like a more likely scenario. As you have said it is the US that is holding up overall world production, and the reason that US production is up is because of price. The shale plays have been known for a very long time, but it wasn’t until the price made them attractive that they began to contribute any significant production.
Shale production really began to grow in 2007, when WTI hit $66.52/ barrel for the year. We think that it is reasonable to assume that it will start to contract when the price hits that same level on the way back down. Our analysis puts WTI at $66/ barrel in 2016.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
Of course I’m splitting hairs here, 2015, 2016 not much difference. I can hear that old fat lady warming up in the background. We’ve had a century and a half of unparallelled prosperity because of petroleum, its a pity that we didn’t plan a little better for the day that it ends.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
JuanP on Sun, 9th Nov 2014 6:10 pm
Great work by Ron. Two thumbs up!
The time is here, guys. We are living in a unique moment, unprecedented in human history. After growing for tens of thousands of years, humanity is now facing a long term forced population and consumption contraction for the first time in human history. I got to buy more long shelf life popcorn!
Northwest Resident on Sun, 9th Nov 2014 7:01 pm
We may not have to wait for the actual moment of peak oil for JuanP and others to start popping their popcorn and sitting down to watch the show.
What we see coming are multiple runaway trains all converging on the same station due to arrive all at the same moment.
Energy shortfalls. A brittle and fragile global economy. Fresh water shortages. Climate change. Farmland rendered infertile by toxic waste. Food shortages. Excessive and rapidly growing populations.
As those trains near the station, racing toward the ultimate climatic crash, look for people to start jumping off in large numbers before that final moment. Panic, pandemonium, chaos. Here’s it comes! You can hear the loud whistles blowing and the thunderous chug-chug-chug of the train engines pounding so mighty in their combined chorus that it shakes the ground beneath us.
But for now, elevator music is playing. The fantasy illusion of all is well still holds sway for billions of little people scurrying about in their daily lives, unaware of the big train crash coming as they only now start to feel the distant rumbling and hear the faraway whistles blowing, wondering what is going on.
Davy on Sun, 9th Nov 2014 7:22 pm
I am in my early fifties and I remember when I was a kid thinking “what will happen when there is no more oil in the ground?” I remember plain as day asking my dad what we would do. I knew how important gas was and it came from the ground. I also remember as I got older and more into science wondering about where progress was going to take us. There was a time when it was believed nuclear power was going to transform the world. I remember society always having an unwritten understanding that we would grow, we would get more complex, and life would improve.
I remembering this all starting to break down in the mid 80’s when I took my ecology, philosophy, and geology electives along with my finance degree. In ecology class I got an in depth study of AGW. In geology a wild eyed eccentric geology professor turned me on to PO with a passion. I had a comparative philosophy class with a liberation theology catholic priest. I remember him asking during one of our tangents away from the basic study of the philosophers “why do we need 10 different kinds of food processors. Why do we even need food processors when so many people have nothing? I got my degree at a Jesuit University. My 1%er dad said the Jesuits ruined me.
The point of the above is the profound change we are entering right here right now is opposite of what society was telling me. We are staring into the abyss with multiple predicaments and peaks. Population growth is beyond control and all ecosystem in decline or collapsing. AGW is winding up ready to show something nasty and abrupt. Look where I came from and look what I am seeing right here right now.
When I was a younger space travel was discussed as happening around now. Now, in as little as 5 to 10 years we may be back to horses and maybe if lucky steam power. I imagine oil products will remain but the degree of their application to the economy certainly will be greatly diminished.
I just hope we can relearn vital knowledge that has been trashed in as little as two generations. The amount of changing needed to return to a postindustrial economy along with the problems themselves seems to me beyond comprehension. I just can’t imagine how we are going to adjust.
Humans will muddle through like we always have. Many will not make it that is clear. I see a halving of the population in a generation at a minimum. If I were to be clinical without emotions or a heart I would say 9 out of 10 will not be here in a generation. I pray I am wrong. I pray that I am mentally unbalanced and these feelings are excessive and unrealistic.
Makati1 on Sun, 9th Nov 2014 8:02 pm
Ah, homo sapiens, the intelligent creature…
About 200 years ago, we were given a huge hydrocarbon inheritance. We could have used it wisely and taken humans to the stars, but … we chose Walmart instead.
The years ahead are going to be very painful and deadly. What we have done, and are doing, will be visited on our kids and grand kids more than us ‘older folks’. That is the reason I have actual hate for the people who took us down this road to hell. They are, or will soon be, dead so they don’t give a damn. Greed … the number one human emotion.
dashster on Sun, 9th Nov 2014 8:20 pm
I am curious as to how the mainstream will react when a production peak occurs. There are several possibilities
a) They could say the Peak Oil people were right, we were wrong
b) They could say that Peak Demand has occurred and production is declining only because of lack of demand.
c) They could say that it really isn’t a peak but that political factors and limitations by environmentalists are keeping the oil producers from doing their thing.
d) They could start spinning a story that they had always been optimistic, but with caveats and their concerns had unfortunately come true.
e) They could say that they were wrong about Peak Oil but that so were the Peak Oil people since they had predicted a Peak a decade earlier (or they could use Campbell’s or Hubberts predictions of peaks in the 1990’s), even though 2005 was only the date for a few forecasts.
I think that a) is the least likely. As we saw after the Great Recession, the mainstream talking heads do freely admit that they were wrong about something.
dashster on Sun, 9th Nov 2014 8:21 pm
That should be that the talking heads “do not” freely admit that they were wrong.
Davy on Sun, 9th Nov 2014 8:34 pm
Dash, maybe something like this:
“First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win.”
― Mahatma Gandhi
pappadeux on Sun, 9th Nov 2014 10:21 pm
> Their Registration Page is all in Russian with no translation button so I cannot figure it out.
Имя: First Name
Фамилия: Last Name
Логин (мин. 3 символа): User Name (no less than 3 symbols)
Пароль: Password
Подтверждение пароля: Password confirmation
E-Mail: E-Mail
Введите слово на картинке: Type the word above (captcha)
Регистрация: Registration
GregT on Sun, 9th Nov 2014 11:25 pm
“There are several possibilities”
You forgot War. Let’s just hope that ‘all options’ STAY on the table.
Jared on Mon, 10th Nov 2014 12:33 am
^ this… mankind will not allow itself to slowly devolve into starvation… not with all that hardware available. … War is increasingly likely with each passing month.
MSN Fanboy on Mon, 10th Nov 2014 4:27 am
“Humans will muddle through like we always have. Many will not make it that is clear. I see a halving of the population in a generation at a minimum. If I were to be clinical without emotions or a heart I would say 9 out of 10 will not be here in a generation. I pray I am wrong. I pray that I am mentally unbalanced and these feelings are excessive and unrealistic”
Is this not why we all prep, so we can get through.
Davy on Mon, 10th Nov 2014 5:37 am
Yea, MSM, but remember there is no guarantees prep will succeed. I also know how difficult it is. Many people without resources and in a money trap just can’t. If you are capable and don’t that is the real tragedy. Prepping is good risk management policy. We have insurance today for a variety of reasons. Society has just not made the leap to collapse prep insurance yet. Collapse is considered fringe so no mitigation efforts are made towards the most dangerous of risks. It seems mad to me.
Ron Patterson on Mon, 10th Nov 2014 7:52 am
@ ShortOnOil who wrote:
“Remember, we are talking about all liquids.”
No, you are talking about all liquids, we are not. I am talking about Crude + Condensate. I have made that point clear many times over.
I have absolutely no idea when bottled gas will peak.
Nony on Mon, 10th Nov 2014 8:49 am
It looks like a lot of the comments about ‘Russia in decline’ have been reading too much into month to month variations. They seem to be at a plateau and no clear, strong downtrend yet.
Ron Patterson on Mon, 10th Nov 2014 10:26 am
Nony, I did not make any prediction about Russian peak based on any production charts. All predictions were made based on what the Russians themselves have been saying. The following link is just one example.
http://www.eriras.ru/files/2014/forecast_2040_en.pdf Titled:
Global and Russian Energy Outlook to 2040
I explain that in depth in my post here:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/russias-take/
One more time: The RUSSIANS themselves are predicting they will peak no later than 2016.
Davy on Mon, 10th Nov 2014 10:35 am
I am amazed lately with the honesty and transparency of the Russians with their currency and oil situation. They probably learned the hard way during the USSR that lies and deceit at least in business is counterproductive.
Nony on Mon, 10th Nov 2014 8:04 pm
Ron:
Your comments were not all caveated with “this is what the Russians say about themselves”, but were to the effect of “clearly in decline”. In addition, they were sometimes made in response to small monthly wiggles. Exactly what I criticize you of.
P.s. Miss me? 😉
Ron Patterson on Mon, 10th Nov 2014 10:08 pm
Nony, you are clearly making that shit up. You don’t make a very good liar.