Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on November 4, 2014
Peak Oil: A New Paradigm Suggested
‘[P]eak oil’ is a global issue resulting from dependency on finite oil resources and associated vulnerability to changes in supply. The global economy must engage in changes and these changes must start with our misperceptions of prosperity as synonymous with capital. If we can transition to a paradigm in which equitable distribution of resources, social justice, the environment and pacifism are valued; energy alternatives and global agreements to mitigate the effects of peak oil may actually work. Fundamentally important is a shared global commitment to these aims (links/citations in original quote). [1]
The author, a graduate student at Queen’s University in Belfast, Ireland, offered a very nice, highly idealistic assessment of what must happen as the effects of and impact from a diminishing supply of fossil fuel takes hold worldwide. While some will surely scoff at the notion of revising every major notion of current national and international economic conduct and theory, absent such a monumental shift in perspective and belief, there’s little doubt that a great deal of needless hardships and unwelcome sacrifices await us all.
I rarely engage in anything approaching the doom-and-gloom forecasts which are more often attributed to peak oil advocates than is the reality. I’m an optimist and yes, an idealist at heart. That has always struck me as a better perspective than to approach a challenge half-defeated before I begin.
Those who choose to remain either clueless about or in denial of the energy supply challenges caused by depletion of finite resources will continue to do what they do: deny, dispute, mislead, distract as many others as they can recruit in order to preserve their own Business As Usual and the current rewards that may bring.
Understandable to an extent. Who readily volunteers to change so much, so drastically, and at such a perceived high cost with so few assurances of adequate “compensation” in return?
Like climate change, peak oil can have no positive outcome unless there is indeed a global commitment to make the significant changes and prepare for the widespread adaptations and transitions we’ll all have no choice but to accommodate at some point. (Which one hits us all hardest, first?)
That’s an easy solution to state. The complexities involved in lining all the ducks in a row to realize it is an altogether different matter.
But unless commitments are made from the ground up—individuals, local communities, larger groups, then nations and finally with international cooperation and agreement, at some point the bleak reality will be clear to all: a finite resource—despite all of the diligent efforts to sustain production or identify appropriate other finite resources to take its place—will have reached a point where it and its companion substitutes can no longer provide everyone with all they seek or need.
The contraction will leave few untouched. There are few if any assurances that the suggested changes or transitions will work. But what is assured is that doing nothing, or relying on those whose vested interests are best served by denying and then misleading others—without considering the facts and the evidence—will create scenarios with almost no “winners,” and imposed changes and adverse consequences few of us can properly envision.
The reality—as ardent deniers like to point out—is that virtually every aspect of our society depends in one way or another on fossil fuels, and that is not likely to change any time soon. Quite right! But therein lies the problem. Those wondrous fossil fuels are no longer as plentiful, accessible, or affordable as they were only a few short decades ago. That won’t change, and the hype about current unconventional resources saving the day is true only if the day is all that matters.
Some of us like to ponder and plan for the future. We even like to add in a bit of hope and optimism that that future will be a brighter one for our children.
Until we all come to the realization of how that might happen without the energy supply we’ve been drawing down for several generations now, those hopes will remain forever out of reach. Some might not think that’s such a great solution.
14 Comments on "Peak Oil: A New Paradigm Suggested"
Jerry McManus on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 7:33 am
To paraphrase:
“Yes, we’re all doomed, that much is obvious, but I’m an optimist! Won’t catch me being some sniveling doomer, I’m above all that.”
Gawd, what a sanctimonious idiot. Sounds just like one of those clueless eggheads from the Oil Drum.
Davy on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 7:35 am
Being a doomer and peaker and whatever else you want to call us is fine. We are opining with linear thinking on a 4 dimensional world. We are talking about the big world none of us nor science can begin to understand. How do you think we got to where we are right now? If there was any understanding of what is going on than we would be in a different place.
What we can do is locally make a difference. When I mean locally I mean down the ladder and up it at the same time: community, tribe, family, and your very heart and soul. I may opine doom in an abstract scientific or theory kind of way but that does not relate to actual life on the ground. I can talk all day long about prep but that is not the same as me getting my ass kicked trying to garden. Real life is much more than the spoken word. It is much more than the http://WWW.EVERYONEHASANASSHOLE.COM where will all have these vague ideas on what is right, good, and will save the world farting out.
We need to leave the big picture up to nature and worry about making our own bed at this point. If we have time help our neighbor. If we are lucky this we grow like a wild fire and positive things will come from the seeds we have planted locally. Forget the bigger picture accept to find enjoyment like Socrates and Aristotle did opining.
rockman on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 8:14 am
Let’s try this approach: who believes they won’t eventually die? Hmm… don’t see any hands. I suspect the author is also pretty sure he’ll die. So does that make all of us pessimists or realists? IOW exactly what level of idealism will remove death from anyone’s future? OTOH accepting this inevitability can lead you to making the best of your remaining years.
Likewise with respect to energy and the economy in general holding on to idealistic assumptions about the future won’t change the future. This is exactly how we got to here we are today: PO was just as real decades ago when folks like President Carter put forward their pessimistic/realistic bleak expectations of our energy future. But as has been the case forever the vast majority of the public rejects such “pessimism”.
One can “be happy” all they want. But they will still eventually die.
paulo1 on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 8:35 am
Rocky,
re: “OTOH accepting this inevitability can lead you to making the best of your remaining years.”
Well said. Worst thing that ever happened to me (besides the usual things that befall us all), was getting cancer. Best thing that ever happened? Getting cancer. There is no better way to sharpen your pencil than lying awake at night exploring the ‘what ifs’. Must have worked….being cut loose from surveillance 5 years early and PO preps doing well which was started for family. Now, each day is pretty wonderful. As soon as it is light I will be taking the dog for a walk and see what the weird noises were last night. Both elk and geese acting up at 4:00am. Maybe the elk wandered into a goose flock? Plus, rain has stopped!!
Paulo
Davy on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 8:51 am
Paulo, I had a near death illness and experience. I echo your words. If you read others near death’ers the same is true. I wonder if the world could have a near death experience and maybe change….naaa
yoananda on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 11:40 am
I we can, but we won’t !
Ask Obama.
Perk Earl on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 11:46 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
WTI –2.35 to 76.49
Brent – 2.29 to 82.49
Even the raging bull stock market that seems to have sequestered itself off into it’s own world recently, has apparently finally noticed dropping oil price and flattened out the past two days.
Maybe we need another article posted to discuss the continuation of oil price declining. Or was it presumed that it would go further down for reasons, A,B & C? I think it’s worth looking at again because these past few days have been substantial. If it’s concern over a recession coming then why isn’t the stock market correcting down?
Davy on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 11:52 am
Perk, it appears we have some converging bad news that may lead to a spiral of confidence. “OR” the same old dog and pony show with financial repression pulling us back from the brink. How long will that game work? Sooner or later a miss step will occurs. I am sure you will agree most of those in charge do not have clue where they are going with their policies. This is uncharted waters.
rockman on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 12:02 pm
Paulo – Good for you, bro. Sitting here feeling my MS slowing shorting out my neurons has had the same affect: stop f*cking around and take care of those dependent upon me. LOL. As you know so well you just make the necessary adjustments. Speaking of which I’ll be betting my handicap gan with electric ramp and power chair in a couple of weeks.
I’ll really be “hell on wheels” then. LOL.
rockman on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 12:03 pm
Paulo – Good for you, bro. Sitting here feeling my MS slowing shorting out my neurons has had the same affect: stop f*cking around and take care of those dependent upon me. LOL. As you know so well you just make the necessary adjustments. Speaking of which I’ll be betting my handicap van with electric ramp and power chair in a couple of weeks.
I’ll really be “hell on wheels” then. LOL.
steve on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 1:22 pm
Can anyone tell me what Saudi Arabia is doing pushing oil prices down today….it makes no sense
Perk Earl on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 1:52 pm
“I am sure you will agree most of those in charge do not have clue where they are going with their policies.”
Ya to that, Davy. It’s like that scene from the Seinfeld episode with Bookman the library cop when he says, “We didn’t know anything about the librarians life, and didn’t want to know anything about it.”
In the same vein TPTB are simply trying to steer the ship to calmer waters, but keep hitting stormy weather and the conditions are worsening. A sane state would dictate acknowledging (even if its just to themselves) that we are in an energy predicament with net energy declining and steer the ship into a controlled contraction. But their like Bookman – they really don’t want to know that much about it and just hope it all turns out good so they can stay in power and keep their billions to themselves.
nemteck on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 2:11 pm
Steve: I thought I had an suggestion and published it under another thread but the moderator put it on hold. I don’t know what the offense is:
Could it be a coincident, that, one day before an election, the Saudis announced a crude price cut for the US? Or was it arranged by Kerry’s recent visit to SA? It sure will be appreciate by the voters.
J-Gav on Tue, 4th Nov 2014 2:39 pm
New paradigms require paradigm “shifts.” Those can take place over some relatively long time periods, facilitating adaptation to new ways of doing things and thinking about the world.
Or, they can be more sudden and brutal, catching the vast majority unawares and making adaptation forced, awkward and unwelcome in most respects. Which version will it be next time around?