Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on October 6, 2014
Kunstler: Must Be the Season of the Witch
As the Governor goblins at the Federal Reserve whistle past the graveyard of dead Quantitative Easing, and the US dollar magically expands like a prickly puffer fish, and Mario Drahgi does what it takes with Euro duct tape to patch all black holes of unpayable debt from Athens to Dublin, and Japan watches its once-wondrous economy congeal in a puddle of Abenomic sludge (with a radioactive cherry on top), and China chokes on its dollar-peg, and Russia waits patiently with its old friend, Winter, covering its back – and notwithstanding the violent chaos, beheadings, and psychopathic struggles across the old Levant, not to mention the doubling of Ebola cases every 20 days, which the World Health Organization did not have the nerve to project beyond 1.2 million in January (does the doubling just stop there?) – there is enough instability around the globe for the gentlemen of Wall Street to make one last fabulous fortune arbitraging the future before the boomerang of consequence circles this suffering planet and finally accomplishes what the Department of Justice under Eric Holder failed to do for six long years.
It’s the season of witch and you should be nervous. Especially if you live in part of the world where money is used. Pretty soon nobody will know what any currency is really worth — at least for a while — or what anything else is worth, for that matter. Perhaps the fishermen of India will start using their worthless gold for sinkers. Jay-Z and Diddy will gaze down on their bling in despair, thinking, perhaps, they should have invested in Betamax players instead. In the time of anything-goes-and-nothing-matters, it’s dangerous to expect anything.
Here’s what I expect: the surge of the dollar is the crest of an historic Great Wave. A Great Wave is an awesome event, and its crest is a majestic sight, but soon the foam spits and hisses and the wave breaks and crashes down on the beach — say, out at the Hamptons — where hedge funders stroll to catch the last dwindling rays of a beautiful season, and all of a sudden they are being swept out to sea in the rip-tide that retracts all that lovely green liquidity, and no one is even left on the beach to weep for them. Indeed their Robert A. M. Stern shingled manor houses up behind the dunes are swept away, too, and the tennis courts, and the potted hydrangeas, and the Teslas, and all the temporal bric-a-brac of their uber-specialness.
And, of course, it being the season of the witch, that’s where the zombies come out for real — the tattooed savages who all this time have been stewing in their own rancid juices awaiting their turn to get jiggy with the nation that left them restlessly undead. I don’t think you can overestimate the depth of ill-feeling that the American public harbors for the cravens who engineered their USA into the biggest booby-trap the world has ever seen. The trouble is, they lost their humanity in the process, so when they have their way with the feckless folks tweaking the dials, you might want to contemplate moving to Finland.
Who can feel confident about the tending of things just now? The diminishing returns of the Information Age are about to bite our collective ass like an army of Orcs. The sum of all that digital magic is a nation completely incapable of telling itself the truth or acting honorably. Unemployment is down without employment being up. Candy Crush is making the world safe for democracy. We have the finest health care system in the world. ISIS is trying to compete with our homegrown videogame industry for supremacy in porno-violence (actually, I thought we already won that) but now we will obliterate all the bad guys in the world by remote control from the drone bunkers of Las Vegas, and that will show them. Thank goodness the long holiday season is almost upon us to juice the so-called economy ever-higher.
There has never been a crazier moment in history. The weeks before the outbreak of the First World War seem like a garden party compared to the morbid antics of these darkening days. America, you’ve been wishing fervently for the Zombie Apocalypse. What happens when you discover you can’t just change the channel?
James H Kunstler via Kunstler.com,
32 Comments on "Kunstler: Must Be the Season of the Witch"
Plantagenet on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 2:08 pm
Kunstler is a big advocate of investing in gold, so the tumble in gold prices and the rise of the dollar must be making him unhappy. But its really not surprising—-the US economy is doing pretty good these days so the dollar is gaining strength. This is likely a temporary phenomena, but nonetheless surprising to people who expect everything to collapse sometime in the next 12 hours.
J-Gav on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 3:31 pm
Good writer! Now, as to whether that good writing meets up with how things actually are, I don’t doubt that some will take issue, including myself here or there. Nevertheless:
Can’t change the channel? Inconceivable! I never write “LOL” (ça me gêne) but I don’t really feel like saying “Ha, ha, ha” either.
Is JHK preparing a Halloween Special Edition?
Davy on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 3:44 pm
Planter, I am not seeing the advantages for dollar strength per this excellent article for the majority:
http://www.theautomaticearth.com/the-us-dollar-is-about-to-inflict-carnage-all-around-the-planet/
The US economy is doing pretty good in relation to an awful global situation. How good is a little better than awful. It is duct tape and cable tie global economy. I do recommend gold for collapse trade and barter. I recommend the tenth OZ gold coins. Don’t value it as an investment but as physical insurance. You don’t have to have much. A few thousand can tie you over for a few months. I say this because a collapse will leverage that gold up significantly in value.
Perk Earl on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 3:59 pm
“I say this because a collapse will leverage that gold up significantly in value.”
That fits with one scenario I was thinking may happen, i.e. fiat destruction via hyper-inflation, then compensating bank savings with pennies on the dollar in new currency. At which time gold/silver will have jumped considerably in value, with the option of exchanging it for the new currency. In this scenario those with gold/silver will be way ahead of the curve, while those without will sell their stuff also at pennies on the dollar to get their starving shaking digits on some new currency.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 4:18 pm
Davy — I read that article last night on theautomaticearth.
Meanwhile, just posted on ZeroHedge:
“Following Friday’s post-payrolls exuberance, the US Dollar crashed by the most in over a year today…”
“EUR strength led USD weaker and the plunge accelerated into the US close (eradicating all payrolls gains). USD weakness sparked commodity strength as gold (up most in 3 months), copper, and oil all rose and silver surged 3% (most in 4 months). VIX rose 0.8 to 15.3 as stocks closed ugly (not “off the lows” for Trannies and Russell) with a flush in financials.”
Ha! Just when you think everybody is going to drop the dollar, it starts surging. Then, just when you think the dollar is set to be the one ring that rules them all, BAM! The dollar crashes big time.
What in the hell is going on?! Good luck answering that one… 🙂
Davy on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 5:03 pm
Turbulence grasshopper, I mean NR. We see these things in a variety of dynamic systems. We are approaching many vital thresholds. We are consequently seeing dysfunction and irrationality in an abstract phase change. BAU is boiling but the temp is remaining at the boiling point. There is still water until there ain’t.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 5:11 pm
“Turbulence grasshopper?” It took me a while to understand that. As in, “Ah, grasshoppa, turbulence is the answer to the question you ask.” Yeah, when it comes to financial/investment news, I am indeed a grasshopper. But like any other grasshopper, I think I know when I’m about to get stepped on!
Kristen on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 5:32 pm
People have been warning of the dollar collapse for at least ten years and yet nothing catastrophic has happened. kunstler is guilty of crying wolf when in reality things aren’t that bad. I mean toilets still flush, houses are heated, lights are on, the list is endless.
Aaron on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 6:34 pm
Kristen – Like a stopped clock, one day he’ll be right.
Davy on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 6:50 pm
Kristen, that is what conditioning does. Kunstler biggest drawback is cryin wolf but he is fun to read and holds nothing back. He is a bit unkind to rednecks. His book “Long Emergency”. Really had an effect on me. It tied PO and BAU collapse together in 2005 for me. I have been prepping seriously since then.
Norm on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 6:50 pm
Ok the toilets still flush. Is that a good index of national economic strength ?
shortonoil on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 7:07 pm
“People have been warning of the dollar collapse for at least ten years and yet nothing catastrophic has happened. kunstler is guilty of crying wolf when in reality things aren’t that bad. I mean toilets still flush, houses are heated, lights are on, the list is endless.”
The average American household has a net worth that is 35% less than it had 10 years ago, and one half of the 2013 college graduates still have not found a job. Yep, toilets still flush in your neighborhood, of course not for Detroit, were they have shut off thousands of peoples water for non payment. Detroit, the highest paid workforce on the planet just a few short years ago. Of course that will never happen in your neck of the woods. /sarc off
Makati1 on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 7:49 pm
short, you see the picture. Just because what you see around your neighborhood is ok, does not mean that the artillery 50 miles away is not getting ready to crater your home.
Is the dollar high? Hmmm. I could list at least 10 recent articles by reputable authors that show the dark side of the US in detail with references and statistics. But I won’t. Either you see it yourself or you, like many here, would still deny it. The US is still living on past reputation, not future reality.
I plan to buy some tenth ounce gold coins soon to add to my preparations. It is only cheap now because the powers that be can still manipulate it. Asia is stocking up on the stuff while the price is suppressed. Gold has been a store of value for at least 3,000 years and is not likely to ever be worthless in a an economy where you can trade. It’s in our genes, so to speak.
marmico on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 7:57 pm
The trade weighted broad U.S. dollar index has been in secular decline since peaking in 2001 but one would be hard pressed to call it a catastrophic collapse.
Davy on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 8:14 pm
NR, do remember KungFu with David Carradine. His teacher, the blind bald headed monk called him grasshopper when he was teaching him. This grasshopper name is when the scenes flash back to Kungfu’s youth. Usually Kungfu is in his mind remembering some important teaching from his days as the young grasshopper that is pertinent to his latest challenge. Just trying to be funny with all this seriousness we deal with here.
MSN Fanboy on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 9:01 pm
If you buy gold you are prepped for a banking collapse, not a collapse of society.
Buy food n guns, there will be plenty to take from the corpses.
steve on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 9:10 pm
I plan to buy some tenth ounce gold coins soon to add to my preparations. It is only cheap now because the powers that be can still manipulate it. Asia is stocking up on the stuff while the price is suppressed. Gold has been a store of value for at least 3,000 years and is not likely to ever be worthless in a an economy where you can trade. It’s in our genes, so to speak.
Makati you are the biggest fool on here!! I wish I could be there to watch you trying to eat all that shit….
Northwest Resident on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 9:11 pm
Davy — Yeah, I got that after thinking about it for a while. I like your sense of humor, even if it takes me a while to “get it” every once in a while. I watched that show too! It was part of what inspired me to study karate for so long.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 9:32 pm
Kristen — You’re right. A lot of the dire predictions made ten years ago by the peak oil crowd have not come to pass — yet. They have been put on hold, postponed to a future date by massive infusions of debt, by fracking, by unprecedented stock buybacks, by ZIRP, and by a multitude of tricks and gimmicks that nobody could have reasonably anticipated. BAU, the dollar and practically every national government in the world is on life support, living on borrowed time. And the clock is ticking. I appreciate the time that has been bought, I’m glad that the doomsday scenarios were pushed out into the future, a ways. But the distinct feeling I get is that those desperate measures have run their course, for the most part, and it won’t be much longer before those predictions made ten years ago start coming true.
Makati1 on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 10:36 pm
steve, I am only buying a few coins as a hold of value for the future. I have all the rest that I need, or will in about a year. Now, if necessary.
The world has never totally crashed to the point that a few years after the dust settles, gold has not recovered its value as a trade medium. Meanwhile, it lays in a safe place waiting.
It neither corrodes not rusts nor evaporates. Gold coins dug out of the ground today still shine like the day they were buried thousands of years ago. Try that with that gun you value so highly. Or that can of beans…lol.
Makati1 on Mon, 6th Oct 2014 10:39 pm
Just a side comment. If you want to see America’s real side, read the comments on a variety of sites and get a picture of your neighbors. In most instances, it is not very pretty. Racism, illiteracy, and just plain stupidity is rampant. But what can you expect? The lifetime of brainwashing was successful.
Richard Ralph Roehl on Tue, 7th Oct 2014 2:52 am
Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad! And Old Coyote Knose… there is much madness in the land.
“Wow! I can’t believe it’s not butter!” she moaned in ecstasy.
“Wow! GMO soylant green for supper… again!” he wildly ejaculated. “And it tastes like chicken!”
Davy on Tue, 7th Oct 2014 4:41 am
There are those who feel exceptional and cast disdain and contempt down as if they are a god seated above looking down on the dirty masses. These people are but animals of insecurity and live in a constant fear of failure. Their life is a failure so they seek out other’s failure as solace to their tortured soul.
Apneaman on Tue, 7th Oct 2014 6:48 pm
” animals of insecurity ” My god is that ever judgmental and cynical. I love it. Wish I would have thought it first.
Davy on Tue, 7th Oct 2014 7:05 pm
Thanks Apnea just some more Davy word salad. That was for Yoda BTW.
GregT on Tue, 7th Oct 2014 7:56 pm
Kristen said:
“People have been warning of the dollar collapse for at least ten years and yet nothing catastrophic has happened.”
It always amazes me how short people’s memories really are. Does no-one remember ‘The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act’ of 2008? QE1, QE2, QE3, ZIRP, TARP, cash for clunkers, and 85 billion per month in ‘economic stimulus’?
The combined historical US national debt has over doubled in only 6 short years. Free market capitalism died when the government borrowed America’s future to bail out the uber-corrupt ‘Too Big To Fail’ corporate banking cartels, while the banksters turned around and awarded themselves hundreds of millions of dollars in ‘bonuses’.
Nothing catastrophic? The entire system has been compromised. While things may appear normal on the outside, in reality, it is all just a facade. It is nothing more than a confidence game now. Any one of a myriad of events can bring the entire system crashing down.
The catastrophe has already occurred, the consequences have not fully been realized, yet, but they will be. It is only a matter of time.
Makati1 on Tue, 7th Oct 2014 8:33 pm
GregT, The end began in the 70s when Nixon took the US off the gold standard and they started printing wealth. That it has taken so long to become obvious is because there are still suckers around the world who buy US paper wealth as a form of reserve. But, those days are coming to a close and gold is probably coming back. China first, I think, from what I see today. Asia is the gold magnet and only the West’ manipulation has keep the price down. The Chinese love it. They are buying it by the hundreds of tons every month while it is cheap.
Did you know that they could buy ALL of the gold in the world with their foreign reserves and still have over a trillion USD left? I just saw that recently. Gold is also a very limited resource that is more and more expensive to mine and refine.
Ralph on Wed, 8th Oct 2014 5:02 am
Of course Ebola will not suddenly stop when it hits 1.2M in January. However, if the rest of the world has avoided the inevitable leakage escaping control and becoming a separate epidemic , then the virus will be approaching its own limits to growth as a significant fraction of the population in the affected countries will have already been infected, and have either developed immunity or died.
However, by that time I expect breakouts on other continents.
Davy on Wed, 8th Oct 2014 6:25 am
Ralph, the danger of Ebola from what I have read is a mutation. I have read humans are not a great host for Ebola because we die relatively quickly upon infection. If the virus mutates with a longer incubation period we are in trouble. The other danger is the systematic risk of the loss of the critical elements of the population. A small fraction of the population play a critical role systematically in a population. The other systematic risk is production and distribution disruptions. The danger of production and distribution have the contagion effect of a financial crisis in an already financially stressed globalism.
Ralph on Wed, 8th Oct 2014 7:41 am
The danger from Ebola is that it kills about half the people it infects, and each infected person on average infects 1.5 more people. Once it gets loose into a large city then those are the only 2 numbers that matter. In a world where even the poorest countries have readily available high speed travel to a minority of their inhabitants, it is impossible to isolate a large outbreak as we now have. It will crop up and start new centres of infection in cities across the world. Some of these outbreaks will be controlled, although both the US and Spanish cases have been badly mis-handled, but the next one , or the one after that will not be. At that point, global panic will ensue, the financial system will collapse, and the resulting chaos will ensure that Ebola gets a free pass into all societies on earth,
GregT on Wed, 8th Oct 2014 8:23 am
The healthcare system in the US itself is the largest threat to an American outbreak of Ebola. Millions cannot afford health care, and will not seek assistance when flu like symptoms first appear.
In Canada, especially in the large cities, we have growing homeless, and drug addicted population problems. Many of these people are mentally ill and really should be institutionalized. If Ebola gets a foothold among these groups of people, it will quickly run rampant throughout our societies.
Davy on Wed, 8th Oct 2014 9:32 am
We could cold heartedly mention a benefit of a pandemic that it may relieve overpopulation limits of growth issues. The sad truth is it could initiate systematic collapse and the die off of perhaps more people than the virus itself through starvation and deadly exposure to uncontrolled migrations. This type of collapse could put us back to the Stone Age. Degree and duration could be too great for civilization to maintain itself.