In a rare split, crude is cheaper in the spot market than in the futures market, where bets are made on where prices will be in the months ahead. By buying physical stocks of oil and immediately selling futures, traders can lock in a profit.
The storage trade isn’t without its pitfalls. If interest rates or storage costs rapidly increase, the costs of the trade could eclipse the money earned from the future sale. Also, some traders say the window to put on the trade could close if demand picks up while supplies wane. The risks were on display Thursday when a late move narrowed the price gap between contracts for near-month delivery and the following month to below the level needed for the strategy to be profitable.
The tankers, weighing as much as 550,000 tons and stretching up to 1,300 feet long, store the oil until the trade is unwound. So do land-based storage facilities, which are filling up as well.
The amount of oil tied up in the strategy has risen to between 25 million to 50 million barrels of crude from almost zero as of April, oil-market traders and analysts estimate, based on trading and ship-chartering data. That amount represents more than one to two days’ worth of U.S. demand.
More than 70 million barrels were stored as part of the trade in April 2009, the last time spot prices stayed below futures prices for a sustained period, according to Energy Aspects, a London-based research and consulting firm.
The spike in oil being stored on the high seas has caught the attention of many investors, who say it is the hallmark of a global supply glut and signals that oil prices—already at two-year lows—are likely to keep falling.
“It shows that there’s oversupply in the market due to weak demand,” said Amrita Sen, an analyst with Energy Aspects.
In recent weeks, Mercuria, one of the world’s largest commodity traders, chartered tankers to haul crude to storage facilities in Saldanha Bay, South Africa, traders and analysts said. Sinopec, the world’s third-largest company by revenue, leased the 3.2 million-barrel supertanker TI Europe, anchored off the eastern coast of Malaysia on Wednesday, to hold crude in storage and is planning to pick up more cargoes in the coming days, traders said. Also last week, Vitol offered a cargo for sale directly from a tanker, rather than from a port, a sign that the trading firm had used the oil to conduct a storage trade, a London trader said.
Mercuria and Sinopec didn’t respond to requests for comment. A Vitol spokeswoman said the firm doesn’t comment on trading activities.
Brent crude oil, the benchmark for world prices, has slid 14% in the past three months amid rising production in places like the U.S., Libya, Iraq and West Africa—and the belief that supplies will continue to outstrip demand.
In July, the spot price of Brent contracts fell below the price of Brent for delivery in later months for a sustained period for the first time since early 2011. When this price pattern emerged, the gap between contracts for near-month delivery and the following month was five cents. On Thursday, the difference was as much as $2.04, surpassing the 70-cent gap analysts and traders say is necessary to make a profit on the trade, taking into account storage and capital costs. The gap shrank to 66 cents at Thursday’s close.
While buying and storing crude is a trade available mostly to companies steeped in physical-oil markets, some investors have started trying to replicate it in financial markets, rather than making simple up-or-down bets on the direction of prices.
Michel Salden, co-manager of $600 million at Harcourt, an asset manager in Zurich, is wagering that gap between short- and long-term Brent prices will continue to widen as oil demand stays sluggish.
“In this environment, it’s hard to play the directionality of the market,” Mr. Salden said.
Some analysts say excess oil supplies already are reflected in the current price of front-month Brent, which settled down 1.3% on Thursday at $97.70 a barrel. Brent for delivery in the next month, December, settled down 1.2% at $98.36 a barrel.
Mr. Salden said he has profited from his positions but declined to disclose details.
Although it is a boon for physical traders, the higher price of Brent for delivery further out can punish many money managers who invest in commodities through passive index funds. Managers of these index funds sell futures contracts before they expire to avoid taking physical delivery of the commodity. To maintain steady exposure, they then buy the more-expensive contract for later delivery, which erodes returns.
“If it does persist, it will be a meaningful incremental drag on returns,” said Nicholas Johnson, who oversees $25 billion in commodity investments at Pacific Investment Management Co., a division of Allianz AG. Pimco is placing bets on the price gap between Brent and U.S. crude, which, unlike Brent, is cheaper for delivery in several months.
Companies are seeking to take advantage of the unusual prices in oil market while they can.
“Crude-oil storage is once again happening in the Eastern Atlantic, South Africa and Asia,” said Stephen Wolfe, senior analyst with commodity-trading firm Trafigura Beheer BV in Houston. “Regional surpluses arose in Asia, Africa and the North Sea at times over the last two months, placing pressure on prices and making [the] storage [trade] profitable.”


markisha on Fri, 19th Sep 2014 12:26 am
when all the facilities are full. Good time for an attack on Iran
Davy on Fri, 19th Sep 2014 5:40 am
What is new. The oil market is among the most corrupt, manipulated, and rigged in the world. There are multiple ways to speculate and influence oil prices. This ship stored oil strategy is standard procedure used for many years now.
rockman on Fri, 19th Sep 2014 10:57 am
Davey – Is it any more corrupt then Apple in the way they manipulate their new product releases? Is the US “hoarding” more then 10X times the amount of oil floating storage in the SPR any different? All the oil belongs whoever owns it. It’s not subject to anyone else’s desires. If I put some extra tanks on my lease so I can hold my production there for an extra month hoping for a higher price later it’s no one’s business but mine. Of course, prices might drop and I’ll get paid less. But, again, that’s my business and no one else’s. Dodge could greatly increase the number of minivans they produce and flood the market putting downward price pressure on the market. By not doing so aren’t they also “manipulating” the market?
Not trying to be mean or rude but the oil doesn’t belong to the consumers. They have no right to say how it’s marketed. Just as the oil producers have no right to insist consumers buy more oil when demand drops, right? After all, when consumers reduce oil purchases aren’t they manipulating the market by restricting how much oil companies can sell?
As I always point out: it ain’t personal… just good business. LOL.
Davy on Fri, 19th Sep 2014 11:45 am
Well, Rock, being an oil plebe I can’t argue with you like I know what I am talking about. When I am off the tractor and in my cabin I will reference the TOD article from it may have been Rembrant??? Any way it was very critical of the transparency of the oil markets both paper and physical. Yet, you are right the whole system is rotten to the apple core!
Davy on Fri, 19th Sep 2014 7:10 pm
Rock here is the article I was referring to when I commented on the corruption of the oil market. Rock, I read the article again and found your comment I put bellow.
#6 – Naked Oil
Posted by Rembrandt on December 28, 2012 – 7:40am
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9742
ROCKMAN on January 1, 2013
Alfred – “…really believe in the perfect market nonsense.” You really lost me there buddy. Being a petroleum geologist for 37 years I’m probably one of the biggest technogeeks here. And as a result of that background I understand just how imperfect the market can be. I’ve seen more examples than I can remember. In fact can you point to any perfect system in our economy? Typically it’s not a systemic problem but a people problem. We have speed limits and drunk driving laws. It seems you would be as critical of those rules given the reality of that situation. The problem isn’t so much with the free market system IMHO but how some folks cheat and abuse the system. And no system, not matter how properly followed, will benefit everyone equally. The free market system says that if you have enough capital you can buy the commodity you desire . Don’t have the bucks you do without. If that’s an indication of an imperfect market how would you fix it? Give the commodity to those who can’t afford to pay? A nice sentiment but how can such a system be sustained? There is no system one can’t find shortcomings in…that’s easy. Now describe the “perfect system”. Go ahead…make my day. LOL.