Putin Orders Preparation Of Retaliatory Sanctions, Expands Trade With Iran

44 Comments on "Putin Orders Preparation Of Retaliatory Sanctions, Expands Trade With Iran"

Plantagenet on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 4:20 pm 



Clearly Obama and his Treasury Sec. Jack Lew are lying when they claim there will be zero effect on the US economy from the sanctions they have set in place against Russia. Obama promised he would “reset” relations with Russia when he took office in 2009—what he did’t tell us was that he would “reset” things back to a new Cold War.

MKohnen on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 4:29 pm 



I think Obama’s latest comments re: Russia (doesn’t produce anything, etc.) have shown the complete abandon of all international norms between countries. His words are emblematic of a leader pushing his people to trivialize another nation, which is either a prelude to war, or incomprehensibly delusional.

Bob Owens on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 5:21 pm 



We invade Iraq and Afghanistan in the name of National Security. Russia wants to bring Russian speaking areas back into its sphere that lie along its border. And we complain that they are the aggressors! Russia has every right to be concerned about Ukraine. What are we and the EU doing over there?

MSN Fanboy on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 5:24 pm 



Does American foreign policy ever stop to ask… why are we doing this?

What purpose does this serve, a trade war.

I do not know who runs America, but they are cleary arrogant unwise fooslish idiots.

Luckily their hubris will be the downfall of them.

bobinget on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 6:55 pm 



So far, because of slacked demand* oil is holding below $98.
* Myopic, American-centric, manipulative, denialism…

Russia and Iran have been planning these joint ventures for months if not years.

I’ve said it so many times on this venue, V.Putin has a special vision for Russia. Watch how Russia screws Exxon.

News from Iraq is nothing if not terrible:

(you need to look for this news it is so bad)

Islamic State takes control of Sinjar, Mosul Dam in northern Iraq

Iraqi and Syrian towns and cities seized by the Islamic State and its allies. Map created by The Long War Journal. Click to view larger map.

The Islamic State is reported to have taken control of the city of Sinjar as well as the Mosul Dam, at least one oil field, and a handful of towns in northern Ninewa province after Kurdish forces withdrew from the area this weekend.

Islamic State fighters first took control of Zumar, a town east of the Tigris River and about 50 miles south of Mosul, after attacking today “from three directions in pick-up trucks mounted with weapons,” Reuters reported. Kurdish forces withdrew after fighting for 24 hours. On Aug. 1, Kurdish military officials claimed to have killed 20 Islamic State fighters and captured 20 more in Zumar, and also said the Peshmerga are reinforcing the area after receiving “advanced weapons” from the US. On Aug. 2, a Kurdish official said that 14 Peshmerga troops and more than 100 Islamic State fighters were killed during the fighting.

After seizing Zumar, Islamic State fighters today reportedly took control of the city of Sinjar, which sits near the Syrian border and is west of Tal Afar and Mosul, two cities currently under Islamic State control. In Sinjar, Kurdish forces retreated after putting up “little resistance.” Islamic State fighters also took over the Mosul Dam, after “Kurdish troops had loaded their vehicles with belongings including air conditioners and fled,”Reuters reported.

In addition, the Ain Zalah and Butmah oil fields, as well as four oil wells, lie just north of the dam and are thought to be under the control of the Islamic State. The jihadist group controls dams and oil infrastructure in both Iraq and Syria, and uses the resources to fund its operations.

The Islamic State is also said to be fighting Kurdish forces in Rabaih, a town on the border with Syria.

The Islamic State claimed to have killed “dozens” of Kurdish Peshmerga and to have seized “a large quantity of weapons and equipment” during the takeover of Sinjar. The jihadist group made the claims, which could not be confirmed, in a statement released on the Ninewa Division’s Twitter page.

The United Nations’ envoy to Iraq, Nickolay Mladenov, warned that “[a] humanitarian tragedy is unfolding in Sinjar,” as more than 200,000 people are thought to have fled Sinjar to the nearby Jalab Sinjar mountains to escape the Islamic State’s advance. “The humanitarian situation of these civilians is reported as dire, and they are in urgent need of basic items including food, water and medicine,” a UN statement said, according to AFP.

It is unclear if the Peshmerga are abandoning the areas, which have been held by Kurdish forces for years, or withdrew temporarily to organize their forces. A Peshmerga spokesman said today that Kurdish forces are preparing to go on the offensive after receiving heavy weapons. One official said the Peshmerga are preparing to retake Sinjar by attacking “from four different directions.”

The Islamic State’s takeover of Sinjar, Zumar, and the Mosul Dam constitutes the group’s first major gains after a blitzkrieg offensive launched on June 10 in conjunction with allied groups that put it in control of Mosul, Tikrit, and a number of cities and towns in Salahaddin, Ninewa, and Diyala provinces. That offensive stalled on the outskirts of Samarra, just north of Bagdad. Meanwhile, the Islamic State controls most of Anbar province and much of northern Babil province. The fighting has largely stalemated as Iraqi forces backed by Shia militias, including many supported by Iran, have failed to regain lost ground but have held most areas under their control.

Across the border in Syria, the Islamic State has taken control of most of Deir al Zour province and has made gains in Homs province as well. Large areas of Raqqah, Hasakah, and Aleppo provinces are also under Islamic State control.

The Islamic State, which was previously known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham, declared the establishment of its caliphate on June 29, and appointed Abu Bakr al Baghdadi as Caliph Ibrahim. Baghdadi appeared for the first time in public at a mosque in Mosul on July 4.

The declaration of the caliphate is controversial in jihadist circles and among Islamic State allies such as the Baathists and other insurgent groups in Iraq. Several al Qaeda affiliates as well as well-respected jihadist ideologues have denounced the Islamic State’s announcement as premature and said the group did not properly consult leading clerics and jihadist groups.

8/3/14 Long War Journal

bobinget on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 7:31 pm 



Only Iran in the region is ready to take on “The Islamic State”. IMO, rather then destroy oil fields, Iran (and Russia) will buy former Kurdish and Iraqi oil.

To deny oil money to ‘The Islamic State’ the West will need to bomb pipelines and choke points needed for export. Doing this will raise oil prices beyond affordability. I’m guessing we, the US, will simply cave
and pay the pipers.

This long war is making for interesting twists and turns. New alliances old, very old superstitions.
A typical Mideast mantra reads: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend”.

Russia, Iran are not ‘on the ropes’ as some commentators would wish.. Iran and Russia did not just come off TWO costly wars that brought nothing in the way of security OR greater oil.

In point of fact “The Islamic State’ are no worse then their progenitors, Saudi Arabia, and everyone does business with them. The Islamic State needs to sell their oil and who better to buy it then Iran and Russia.
Currently ‘The Islamic State’ loaded with captured American made weapons and US cash. In time however they will be buying weapons from Russia and Iran.

As long as Russia and Iran control Iraqi oil the three
producers can bypass USD’s and deal with China who
never, never worries about matters of ‘Human Rights’
or internal repression.

I said it three years ago, Syria is to be the the next leverage point. Who ever controls Syria holds the keys.

Now as it happens “The Islamic State” armed to the teeth, flush with oil and stolen cash will control much of Syrian oil production. Deals will be made.

bobinget on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 7:41 pm 



The Islamic State Vowed to Destroy Israel.
(hence need for more weapons)

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has asked the Palestinians to be patient and stressed that the group will come to fight the “barbaric Jews”.
In a statement released on Twitter, through an account affiliated to the ISIS, it stated that it was aware of the “massacre” of Muslims in Gaza.
“As for the massacres taking place in Gaza against the Muslim men, women and children, then the Islamic State will do everything within its means to continue striking down every apostate who stands as an obstacle on its paths towards Palestine,” the group said.
The statement from ISIS seems to be a response to critics who have questioned why the group and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi aren’t coming in support of the Palestinians.
Replying to that, the statement said: “It is not the manner of the Islamic State to throw empty, dry and hypocritical words of condemnation and condolences like the Arab tawaghit do in the UN and Arab League.” The ISIS militants instead promised that actions speak louder than words.

Perk Earl on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 8:03 pm 



Well, uh, back to the situation with Russia, I think O got embarrassed by his backing down from Russia over Syria when all those ships from both sides were just off of Syria. Then the Crimea was taken back into the Russian fold, apparently by way of a vote by their people.

So O appears weak from those events and has lashed out with sanctions against Russia to regain some face (as the Asians would say) by not just folding on the Ukraine, but we will have to wait and see the repercussions of this partial division between super powers.

I think it’s all reflective of the current raised value of what is left at the bottom of the FF barrel. Like China’s aggression in the South China Seas, or the fight for oil in Iraq or over oil in Libya, side deals made for Iran’s oil, it’s just another sign things are beginning to unravel. We talk about peak oil and argue about it, but it’s unmistakably obvious geopolitically.

Makati1 on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 8:51 pm 



Washington is nothing but hypocrites. I wonder how O would handle the Russians toppling the Mexican government, then putting Moscow’s puppets in and setting up Anti-missile defense positions on the US border? Would O be as restrained as Putin? I doubt it. He would be foaming at the mouth and threatening nuclear war.

There is no diplomacy left in the US. Noone is intelligent enough to be a true diplomat. Look at who they have runnig around the world being hypocritical every time he opens his mouth: loser Kerry. And before him, Hillary “I want to be President” Clinton. It’s guns or nothing, and ‘nothing’ is not on the US table.

The world is watching and is not as dumbed down or brainwashed as Americans. They see what is happening in the places the US touches. They all turn to chaos. Even the US itself is starting to churn and roil.

Putin still has the four aces in this game of poker and O has the joker. Nothing on TV could be as exciting and suspenseful as reality.

Davy on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 9:06 pm 



If you read here and there you see how the sanctions are putting the hurt on Russia. Russia’s plans to trade with Iran are nothing new. They have been trading with Iran and planned more trade even before the latest crisis. Russia will suffer significant economic hardships if these sanctions continues. Russia is turning risky and uneconomic for companies across the board to trade with and invest in Russia. Russia’s plans to cozy up to the Brics especially China will not happen overnight. You don’t just ramp up trade in a few months. These changes take time and there is no guarantee this Bric focus will amount to much. I am not saying it won’t but I have seen nothing impressive yet out of this Bric talk. The big question is can Russia hunker down and weather this storm until it can diversify its trading partners. The west is just too big and Russia too small for much pain from Russian sanctions. The energy weapon and a lesser extent metals may be used but that will also hurt Russia significantly with a resource dependent economy. The energy weapon use may sink the Russian economy beyond a resilient recovery. Russia has all these issues to add to other long term issues of declining oil production and lack of oil sector investment to stem that decline. Russia is starting to follow the failed Chavez economics of using their oil revenue to cover increased adventurism, dangerous economic policies, and large defense increases at the expense of the oil sector that pays the bills. Putt’s days are numbered if he doesn’t pull a rabbit out of his hat.

keith on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 9:36 pm 



If Putin wants to hurt Obama. He just has to give all the natural gas the Ukraine and Europe needs now and throughout the winter.

Makati1 on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 11:12 pm 



Davy, wishing doesn’t make it so.

You seem to think negatively of anyone not on the Us payroll. Perhaps you need to read some articles not approved by the US Ministry of Propaganda … alias, the MSM.

Try: http://www.onlinenewspapers.com/

As for Brics, with half the world’s population and economy, I think they are on the right track taking down the dollar and the Us. More countries are lining up to join them in the near future, but you will not read that in the Empire’s MSM rags.

They are also not bankrupt countries like ALL of the West. Three of the five are nuclear countries and will not be easy to push around.

But, you will just disagree. Time will tell who was correct. I can wait.

dissident on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 11:18 pm 



The regime in Kiev is not interested in paying Russia for any gas. It wants it for a price it pulls out of its a**. So Russia is not going to supply the regime. This means the regime will steal transit gas going to the EU. The EU is run by retarded monkeys, the same ones who are blocking the construction of the South Stream pipeline, and will howl like a mad dog that Russia is cutting off the gas flow.

Naturally, as on every previous occasion, no western media drone will bother to visit the transfer stations on the Russia-Ukraine border to see what the meters are showing. As with the Malaysian airline all that will ever be heard from the precious west is blood libel.

Makati1 on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 11:38 pm 



BTW: SCO To Admit New Members: Iran, India, Pakistan and Mongolia.

http://macedoniaonline.eu/content/view/25830/53/

And the Eastern beat goes on…

Makati1 on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 11:41 pm 



FYI: RUSSIA: Moscow blocks Polish fruit, veg imports, mulls EU ban.

http://www.just-food.com/news/moscow-blocks-polish-fruit-veg-imports-mulls-eu-ban_id127451.aspx

Hmmm… Is Putin sending back some boomerangs?

Makati1 on Tue, 5th Aug 2014 11:56 pm 



Sanctions? What sanctions?

“Russian Theme Park A Go For French Firm Despite EU Sanctions Link”

“… French company Puy du Fou will press ahead with plans to build a family-oriented theme park near Moscow that aims to bring to life periods of Russian history despite its key partner, Russian billionaire Konstantin Malofeyev, being placed on a European Union sanctions list last week….”

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-amusement-park-sanctions-malofeyev/26515050.html

And: “Russia’s LUKoil Pulls Out Of Three Central European States”

“…LUKoil said in a statement on August 4 it was selling its gas stations in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia as part of an “optimization” plan…LUKoil had earlier announced it was pulling out of Ukraine…”

I wonder who is going to supply the gas to the new owners?

Putin is laughing.

MKohnen on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 12:44 am 



Davy,

You often make the argument that the West is just too big compared to Russia for Russia to be effective, but I find that argument spurious at best. Your argument says that an elephant will always vanquish a rabbit. But in times of drought, as long as the rabbit keeps out of the way, it’s the elephant that has the slimmest chance. Most informed people can easily tell that the US is in big trouble! Let’s say Russia’s FF production continues to fall. How long until they don’t produce enough oil for their own needs? Now, let’s say the “shale revolution” starts to sputter and turns downhill. How long until the US doesn’t produce enough FF’s for their own needs? That’s a simple answer, they already don’t! The US will go from papered-over stagnation to full-out crisis in very short order. And what would make the Russian economy do that? It’s true that Russia’s economy is heavily dependent on resources. That used to be a very bad thing when there was a smaller population and a huge excess of resources. But I think that all of us (barring the few who live in a cornucopian fairy tale) would agree that those days are behind us. If a price crash big enough to crush the Russian resource economy occurs, what would happen to the US’s shale miracle? So I think it’s time to drop the “Russia’s a basket case” line that Obama has started to promote, and start to take the Russian situation a lot more seriously. They are the hare, the US is the elephant, and the drought is upon us!

Arthur on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 12:58 am 



Russia now contemplating to block all airtraffic over Russia. Russia is a very big country.

There are one million refugees in zrussia as a result of the Nuland coup. Would not be surprised if Russia will invade soon.

Oh, and yesterday I spend many hours summarizing what happened with mh17. There can’t be a shred of a doubt that it was a false flag, organised by the gang that now has Kiev under control. Conclusions at the bottom:

http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2014/08/05/speculations-about-what-happened-to-mh17/

Arthur on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 5:41 am 



If NWO commies like bobinget are in despair, you can safely conclude that everything is moving into the right direction.

NWO commies want a world without borders, with everything mixed and no local identity. The horror vision of a globalized, mongrelized world with 9 billion Obama look-a-likes, all visiting the local MacDonalds, listening to CNN, with Wulf Blitzer rambling about the holocaust. A world owned by the banksters, to avoid another term.

For people such as myself, who want an indentitarian multipolar world, with a Chinese China, a Russian Russia, an islamic Caliphate and a European Europe, these ISIS clowns are a God-sent. Everything that sabotages the NWO is good. Palestine should be an Ottoman province again, like it was before WW1.

Meanwhile things are heating up. It is very well possible that Russia is going to intervene soon in Donbass. If NATO dares to respond, oil and gas deliveries to Europe are going to be cut off, causing a dire situation in Eastern Europe, playing into the hands of the local nationalists, who will attempt to go Moscow direct and kick out NATO. Expect US business interests to be smashed everywhere in continental Europe by nationalists. Just like Eastern Europeans went at the throat of Moscow oriented communist satrap regimes in 1989, western Europeans could go at the throat of the Washington oriented multicultural satrap regimes. Greater Europe will join the BRICS, which will mean the end of the UN, IMF, Worldbank and all the other globalist institutions.

In the US, after world has dumped the dollar, the GOP will openly morph into the white party, and will try to break up the Union. The imported third world proletariate, led by the bankster regime will try to prevent to let the goose with the golden eggs/white atm escape and CW 2.0 will be a fact. Expect Greater Europe to intervene, just like France and Holland intervened in 1776 and make the difference, again. La Raza will take over Mexican majority territories and merge with Mexico, just like Crimea merged with Russia. The US global empire will evaporate and the troops will come home. Turkey will take over the entire ME, including Palestine. China might be tempted to double it’s territory and take over Australia, now that it is no longer protected and solve it’s overpopulation problem.

Davy on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 5:59 am 



MK, Spurious? No sorry, there is nothing fake about the size of the Russian economy compared to the rest of the G7. There is nothing spurious about the fact that Russia relies on a significant amount of FDI and vital replacement parts for its economy to run. There is nothing spurious about the fact that Russia needs western service firms of all kind. It is not like these connections will disappear that is unless this trade war becomes a spiral out of control. Sure the Chinese and the other basket brics can take up some of the slack eventually. Russia can start selling its oil to the basket brics especially China. Since oil is an international market, what will China do with the oil it is already getting? It will just be a trading partner swap. As for gas, Russia and the west are connected like mating dogs until such time the infrastructure can be built to supply China, LNG for export to other basket brics, and or tird world countries. Infrastructure takes years to construct fully and effectively. Economic changes take time. Relationships need to be established, infrastructure put in place and there must be a need. Much easier to end the relationship then to power them up. There is no doubt the energy weapon (mainly gas) is very strong indeed with really no options for Europe other than to manage supply (rationing) as needed to various sectors. This may mean industry will need to shut down during a time residential and power needs are greatest. Risk management is a high priority now for Europe I am sure it is being discussed behind the scenes. Europe is better prepared than any other region globally for energy disruptions. As for the longer term comparing Russia and US, well, you really need to compare North America. North America’s position should not be discounted. There are still significant resources in NA. There is huge lifestyle changes and attitude changes that will happen when decline sets in. My thoughts are when the decline for whatever reason sets in the financial repercussions will end BAU everywhere. Russia production will falter from being undiversified and dependent on the rest of the global BAU for necessary parts, services, and markets. Don’t expect China to step in. China is in an economic spiral that has yet to fully hit. If global BAU declines so will China’s export dependent markets. China is in the worst possible position of the large economies being export dependent and dependent on virtually all resources. Does China have many resources “YES” but not enough to maintain a growing 1.3BIL population and vital economic growth. The west will also suffer as this anti-American website constantly preaches with both posts and comments. This Russian trade war is really a short term and long term phenomenon. Short term Russia may not survive without significant and irreversible pain. Longer term is difficult to estimate because can Russia diversify trading partners in time to transition away from the west. I doubt it. The same is true for Europe. Can they diversify away for Russia. “OR” is Art right, Russia and Europe will be forced to mend fences in common interest and go back to “Canine intercourse). I imagine UKr mafia will fold by winter so that is a first step to reconciliation.

Davy on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 6:06 am 



Art, collapse will happen before your scenario plays out. Your scenario does not include consequences and unintended consequences. Basically you are talking ultimately famine and food insecurity because that is what awaits almost 7BIL people in a collapsed BAU. This famine and starvation will be felt first in Asia, Africa, and the ME. ISIS will be eating their captives instead of dumping them in a ditch. I believe they will need to be a Fatwa from their new leader to allow this.

Arthur on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 6:22 am 



Davy, you are right about ‘collapse’ (of BAU) *** everywhere ***… in the US, EU, Russia, China, the lot. But… nobody is going to evaporate or beamed to Mars. Naked survival does not require much… 2 liter water and a few potatoes per day suffice for a long time. Famine, yes. War, yes. But civilization will carry on… in the 2nd rather than the 5th gear.

Davy on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 6:43 am 



Civilization, Art, requires complexity. I do not think 2 liters and a few potatoes constitutes complexity.

pinger on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 7:05 am 



http://m.rbth.com/news/2014/08/06/chinese_microelectronics_will_replace_us_microelectronics_in_russian_spa_38790.html

and then
http://m.rbth.com/business/2014/08/02/how_did_russia_power_your_smartphone_and_shape_your_car_38703.html and
http://rt.com/business/167272-russia-national-payment-system/

Davy on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 7:24 am 



What is your point P? Good, bad, balanced?

Arthur on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 8:06 am 



Davy, I am not suggesting that we all are going to live on two liter water and a few potatoes per day, far from it.

The car will be largely gone, plane travel to Farawayistan, Walmart. If you need a ‘new’ chair, go to ebay.

The train will return, the tram and long aprons. I am sorry to say that the bicycle will continue to dominate over the horse.lol

The way NWR lives will become the norm. Btw, many people in Russia and Ukraine already live like NWR and have a garden like him. Surviving on veggies and chicken eggs is no rocket science. We won’t fall lower than that, after society has found a new equilibrium and a new balance of power has been established. The later could take decades.

Davy on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 8:17 am 



Art, good luck with that transition in a broke world. These thing don’t happen by osmosis. When complexity goes in reverse complex things stop working. As for the Russia and garden plots what about the urban Russians especially Moscow? Hell, the rural poor here in American do the same thing you talk about the Russians do. The welfare payments buy luxuries here. Everyone I know on the many farms here locally has something in the till. I think what many people here believe you can survive on welfare in America. Forget it! I live around poor people and they do what they can because food stamps cover a week at best. BTW Europe is the welfare state capital of the world. You are losing me Art, Please explain how you are getting from here to there.

JuanP on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 8:19 am 



Art, I hope you are wrong about Putin sending the Russian military into Ukraine. I think that is what the USA government wants him to do, IMO. Putin has to let Ukraine go for some time and split Russia from it as much as possible, and focus on maintaining Russia’s territorial integrity and preparing his country for POD. I suspect he knows this. I think Putin has decided to let Kiev destroy the Donbass region. Smart move, sacrifice Ukraine to save Russia, classic chess move.
If I were Putin I would let the USA and EU get the Ukraine and keep it for the next few years. Ukraine is facing the worst years of its history, IMO, and they have had a terrible history. They are a fast collapsing failed divided state. Whoever controls it the next few years will be blamed for the national economic, political, and social collapse. The smart thing for Putin to do is to let the Western world pay and get blamed for it.
By the way, have you heard of the problems developing in Northwestern Ukraine? The Romanian, Gypsy, and Hungarian minorities in the Transcarpathian region are blocking roads, refusing military conscription, and kicking the Kiev representatives out of the region and attempting to close the mountain passes that separate them from Kiev. It looks like Ukraine could split three ways in the long term!

JuanP on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 8:34 am 



Davy, you are right that North America, and not the USA is the important entity in a post peak world. Geography will rule the day after BAU is gone, old political borders will be a lot less important, eventually meaningless.
I think all the Americas have an advantage there, except a handful of Central American and Caribbean nations that are too overcrowded, and will probably disperse across the continent or die.
The problem with North America is Mexico. I think Mexico is becoming a failed state, slowly, but surely. You, in MO, are pretty safe!

JuanP on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 8:45 am 



Davy, the Russians have a unique history of urban residents having access to small plots of land to grow food in their cities’ peripheries that they visit on weekends and vacations. It is very effective. Many more Russian urban residents grow their own food in these Dachas than we do here in the USA. In Russia it is part of their culture for city people to grow their own food. An example worth studying.
Dacha Wiki
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacha
Being someone who has never owned land, I have always found the old Russian Dacha tradition fascinating, and worth copying.

Davy on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 8:45 am 



Juan, UKr is already a failed state by most measures. Russians are indirectly supporting the east. The west the remaining area. Russian cannot turn its back on a failed state on its border with its ethinic brothers. This is not chess it is systematic collapse with associated contagions. Putt is stuck with his offspring and his adventurism. Generally leaders choose conflict when things are going bad for them. IMO this is what is happenning to Russia. Putt is in a panic. He has too many irons in the fire. Russia is engaging too many problems with an economy in decline. Do you think China is going to give Russia a modern version of the lend/lease ww2 economic support? I doubt it. Russia is in a spiral and since they are TBTF for the global BAU this spells the end of BAU including the west. This is not ww2 USSR that throw millions into battle against Germany. Russia can’t decouple and it’s population is in social decline with little will to fight.

JuanP on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 8:58 am 



Davy, Putin is a smart, cold hearted, nationalist SOB, and he will do whatever he feels he must do to save Russia, I would never underestimate what someone like him is capable of doing, he does not have the limits that you have.
I disagree with most people on the matter of how much support East Ukraine is getting from Putin. This is how I see it: Putin wanted Ukraine, but has accepted the loss, he is happy with Crimea. Putin provides a lot less support to the rebels than most people think. He doesn’t want them to win, because they can’t, so he wants to benefit as much as possible from their loss. He will only provide them with the weapons necessary to defend themselves to the point that Lugansk and Donetsk end up totally destroyed. The point being that if Russia has to give up control of those areas, then their total destruction is the next best choice for Russia. That is what is happening now as I see it. These are the two cities and regions that made the most money in Ukraine, without them Ukraine becomes a peasants no man land.

Davy on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 9:08 am 



Juan, what you talk about is fine but insignificant compared to what faces Urban Russia. The Russia of today is no different than elsewhere the old has been allowed to wither the new is the usual global BAU pursuits. The Russians have integrated with BAU and consequently turned there back on subsistence. Not completely of course but enough to make them vulnerable. Moscow is one of the most expensive mega cities in the world.

Arthur on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 9:08 am 



Juan, I hope I am wrong too, but as we speak, Russia is mobilizing large numbers of troops along the border. The strategy of the zionist Poroshenko-Yatsenyuk-Kolomoisky gang that has captured Ukraine earlier this year is doing everything it can to provoke Putin and the strategy is to terrorize the population of Donbass as much as possible. There are already more than 100,000 Donbass refugees in Russia, so what is Putin to do? Wait until there are 500,000 refugees? The point is, if A wants war with B, then it is very difficult for B to avoid war in the long term. Currently it makes sense for Russia to postpone until the approaching winter and destabilize Ukraine and Eastern Europe with halting fuel deliveries. Let’s see how pro-Nato and pro-EU they will be if they freeze in their beds with no end in sight. I hope the economy crashes, so the conditions here in Europe will enable a ‘European Spring’ with the aim to liquidate the West and save European civilization before it is too late from the cultural marxists, the third world and Washington. And I predict that France will lead the way and the German population will be keen to follow.

About Ukraine… the more blood flows, the less likely it will become that Ukraine (‘Borderland’) can be reconciled. I hope that the Carpathians will refuse to fight Washington’s war and attempt to secede. If the Nazis from Lvov will manage to kill thousands of Donbass people and/or attempt ethnic cleansing, the country will be broke beyond repair and entire Novorossia will eventually merge with Russia, even if they are not ready yet.

Btw, it remains to be seen if Washington can mobilize its own people for a major conflict with Russia and China. I don’t think all these Mexicans from the US SW can be motivated. They came to the US to make money, not to loose their lives.

JuanP on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 9:17 am 



The reason for that is that, IMO, the Dniepper river is the last defensible strategic military borderline on Russia’s Southwestern border, and all the territory East of the river is essential for Russia to defend its own territory, and we must remember the long, terrible history of invasions that Russia has suffered in its long history, and their very reasonable sensitivity on this matter.
If Russia can’t control Eastern Ukraine, then it must become a no man’s land as far as the Russians are concerned.
We wouldn’t put up with nobody setting Mexico against the USA, either.

JuanP on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 9:19 am 



Davy, I take for granted that most people will die everywhere faster than they hope.

JuanP on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 9:23 am 



I also believe there will be very few cities with more than a million people left in the world in a few decades

Arthur on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 10:05 am 



Russia denies Nato reports that it is amassing troops along it’s border.

When was the last time the US was amassing troops along its own borders? Lol

Davy on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 10:22 am 



Juan, with NUK weapons invasion is mute. A conventional US force in Ukr is grounds for NUKs to be used. If the Russian make the Euro’s cold this winter that will be the end of a Euro/Russian relationship with nationalistic public opinion. Euro’s will look to Russia for that pain. BTW, Russia is making headway with Euro public opinion although no European trusts the Russians. The Russians lie and deceive and always have. This is part of their nature. This is the reason the mafia is so strong there. Not unlike elsewhere it is just that the Russians are good at it. The DC mafia in reality is the smart one. A clarification of smart ones “with the conventional thinking that all world leaders who are by necessity cornucopian think by”. The DC Mafia has succeeded in destabilizing Russian and thrown water on the Russian/Euro economic/social ties. If one accepts systems theory on this whole Ukr crisis then the DC mafia will also lose in the end. You cant’s destabilize a TBTF node let alone two TBTF nodes. Both Europe and Russia are descending into instability. IMA at a time the Euro economy is a mess with de-facto sovereign default in most of southern Europe, huge exposer to emerging market debt (including Russia), deflation, disguised federal Reserve style QE, and now an energy crisis a few months away. This is a perfect mix for war both hot and cold. The cold is playing out now with the trade war and the proxy fight in eastern UKR. Juan, this may be a chess game but the reality of the situation is a hyper complex interconnect global BAU economy in severe disequilibrium. This global BAU economy supports all locals now that it has evolved into a dominant system for all other human social and economic entities. We are now all delocalized locals codependent with a hyper complex global BAU. If you want to get away from this reality then go to North Korea. If this crisis continues it will end BAU and complex society, Bau has only one way to go and that is increasing complexity and energy intensity. Any deviation from this path is collapse. A hyper complex society cannot go in reverse. We are not unlike Easter Island cutting the last great Palm down.

JuanP on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 10:41 am 



Davy, there will never be a ground invasion. I am on the record in that much. Convincing the russians of this while the Ukrainians keep shelling them is something else, that was my point. With their history, I understand their paranoia about it.
I have to go, I’m going fishing with my wife.

Arthur on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 12:55 pm 



“If the Russian make the Euro’s cold this winter that will be the end of a Euro/Russian relationship with nationalistic public opinion.”

I think the opposite will happen. The public will think: “we are sitting in the cold because our governments found it necessary to meddle in Russia’s backyard. Please make up with Ruskies to they will send us fuel again”

Davy on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 1:30 pm 



Time will tell Art. Much will happen by this winter. Should be exciting for us all really. Europe is too big to fail and an energy war is financial suicide. Great combination for a winter blockbuster.

dissident on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 8:45 pm 



The ones making the EU cold this winter will be the regime in Kiev by stealing transit gas. I see that the White House propaganda narrative is being peddled here already. Gotta condition the lemmings to swallow the sh*t.

Makati1 on Wed, 6th Aug 2014 9:24 pm 



World War III is on the way, so all of the above is meaningless. It is the only way the US can take the last step to a Police State and Dictatorship. I suspect we will experience it before 2020.

I don’t see the “economy” lie lasting much longer. The strain is showing in the Us’ desperation. Not even an attempt at diplomacy or negotiations, just weapons and war. And so many lies, that it even becoming obvious to the ‘blind and deaf’ in the US.

For my kid’s sake, I hope I am wrong…