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Page added on July 17, 2014
Saudi Crude Exports Fell to Lowest Since 2011
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, shipped the least crude in almost three years in May as domestic refineries processed record amounts and power plants also increased consumption, official data showed.
The nation exported 6.99 million barrels a day in May, down from 7.45 million barrels a month earlier, according to data Saudi Arabia submits to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative in Riyadh. The shipments were the smallest since September 2011. Crude production rose to 9.71 million barrels a day from 9.66 million in April.
Saudi Arabian refiners processed 2.14 million barrels a day of crude in May, the highest since at least January 2002, the year when JODI started collecting data from member governments. Crude processing in May went up from 1.85 million barrels a day in April, the data showed.
“The record refining volume shows that Saudi Arabia is fulfilling its plans to become a major downstream player,” said Julian Lee, a Bloomberg oil strategist in London who writes for First Word and whose observations are his own. The nation’s 400,000 barrels a day Jubail refinery is running at about 80 percent of capacity and a new Yanbu plant of the same size should start operations before the end of the year, he said.
Saudi power plants burned 680,000 barrels a day on compared with 484,000 barrels in April, and 547,000 barrels a year ago. May crude burning was at highest level since August 2013, JODI showed.
14 Comments on "Saudi Crude Exports Fell to Lowest Since 2011"
westexas on Thu, 17th Jul 2014 4:25 pm
Based on BP consumption data, Saudi net exports of oil in 2013 were below the 2005 rate of 9.1 mbpd for the eighth straight year (total petroleum liquids + other liquids, EIA), as annual Brent crude oil prices doubled from $55 in 2005 to the $110 range for 2011 to 2013 inclusive.
This is in marked contrast to what we saw from 2002 to 2005, when Saudi net exports increased from 7.1 mbpd in 2002 to 9.1 mbpd in 2005, as annual Brent crude oil prices doubled from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005.
I estimate that Saudi Arabia, through 2012, had already shipped about 37% of their post-2005 CNE (Cumulative Net Exports), based on the 2005 to 2012 rate of decline in their ECI Ratio (Ratio of production to consumption):
http://i1095.photobucket.com/albums/i475/westexas/Slide21_zpsd1963fe3.jpg
Nony on Thu, 17th Jul 2014 4:45 pm
How much finished products are they shipping and do you consider this (net finished product trade) in your ELM model?
shortonoil on Thu, 17th Jul 2014 5:08 pm
“I estimate that Saudi Arabia, through 2012, had already shipped about 37% of their post-2005 CNE (Cumulative Net Exports), based on the 2005 to 2012 rate of decline in their ECI Ratio (Ratio of production to consumption):”
That may be a conservative estimate. According to reports from Aramco reservoir engineers several yeas ago, the water cut in Ghawar is 45%. That correlates to an oil seam of 30 feet or less. With an original oil seam of 350 feet, that also indicates that it is now over 90% depleted. Numerous reports are coming out of SA about the horizontal drilling they are doing to skim the last few feet off the top of the reservoir. This field is almost certainly going to go into very rapid decline sometime in the near future.
If Ghawar goes into a rapid decline, SA’s exports are almost certain to follow.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Nony on Thu, 17th Jul 2014 5:17 pm
Twilight in the desert! Oh, wait…we already played that movie. 😉
westexas on Thu, 17th Jul 2014 6:58 pm
I define net exports as total petroleum liquids + other liquids production less liquids consumption (EIA).
westexas on Thu, 17th Jul 2014 7:00 pm
Based on the seven year 1995 to 2002 rate of decline in the Six Country ECI Ratio, I estimate that they would have shipped about 68% of post-1995 CNE (Cumulative Net Exports) from 1996 to 2002 inclusive.
In reality, from 1996 to 2002 inclusive they shipped 84% of post-1995 CNE:
http://i1095.photobucket.com/albums/i475/westexas/Slide2_zps55d9efa7.jpg
Nony on Thu, 17th Jul 2014 7:44 pm
westexas: sounds good. I’m so tough on you, that when you do something right want to be fair and give you credit.
Makati1 on Thu, 17th Jul 2014 8:47 pm
Sounds logical.
Dropping recovery + increasing domestic use = less exports.
This is the future everywhere.
Calhoun on Thu, 17th Jul 2014 8:54 pm
Nony, still waiting for your vision of the future of oil production. (crickets chirp)
Nony on Thu, 17th Jul 2014 9:04 pm
I gave it to you a while ago. Read it. The whole thing. Stop. Think. Don’t retort. Give it some time to make sense to you. Read the whole thing. All the words. That is a square honest take on my Bayesian assessment, including some comments on level of (un)certainty.
Oh…and I don’t dance to your tune.
I have no problem with people who say they don’t know (e.g. Rockman). I don’t have a problem with people who take an honest guess. I have a problem with people who boost themselves up as prophets and DON’T face the bad predictions. Like Red Queen Rune. Like Campbell. Like Deffeyes. Like Ruppert. Like Ace. Like Gail.
Aire on Fri, 18th Jul 2014 8:44 am
All those people you’re bashing for being prophets you realize WILL be pretty much right at some given time. They at least have the courage to go against the norm and sound the alarm. All you’re doing Nony is making yourself unknown by not making a decision on any of your belief. Hubbert took the effort to predict .. and was one of the first of his kind. History will look back at these people, not people like you who stay uncertain and lean toward the “business as usual” status
shortonoil on Fri, 18th Jul 2014 9:52 am
“In reality, from 1996 to 2002 inclusive they shipped 84% of post-1995 CNE:”
That pretty much is in line with what we know about the world’s major fields. 60% of the world’s production comes from less than 1% of its fields, and those fields are more than 60 years old. Ghawar is only one example of that situation. I think you predicted (somewhere) that most exports would cease by about 2030. 2030 – 2035 is the date that our study puts on the end of the oil age. It makes sense that the end of exports will be the end of oil’s dominate role in the world’s economies.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Northwest Resident on Fri, 18th Jul 2014 10:03 am
“2030 – 2035 is the date that our study puts on the end of the oil age.”
That is, as I believe you have already pointed out in prior posts, as long as no geopolitical events, natural disasters, financial market downturns or assorted acts of God disrupt the relatively stable operating environment thereby allowing for a slow and steady playing out of all the factors which went into your study to their logical conclusion.
westexas on Fri, 18th Jul 2014 10:26 am
A rough, but consistent, rule of thumb is that about half of post net export peak CNE (Cumulative Net Exports) are shipped about one-third of the way into a net export decline period.
For example, it took the Six Country Case History 12 years to go to zero net exports, after their net exports peaked in 1995 and after their ECI Ratio started to decline. Four years later (one-third of the way) into the net export decline period, they had already shipped 54% of post-1995 CNE, even as production rose slightly from 1995 to 1999.
In other words, the largest volumetric depletion in post-net export peak CNE tends to occur early in the decline phase. I estimate that the (2005) Top 33 net exporters, have already shipped, through 2012, about one-fifth of their post-2005 CNE, based on the 2005 to 2012 rate of decline in their ECI Ratio. This methodology was too optimistic for the Six Country Case History, in regard to their estimated post-1995 CNE.