Nicole Foss: We Need Freedom of Action To Confront Peak Oil

22 Comments on "Nicole Foss: We Need Freedom of Action To Confront Peak Oil"

Nony on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 10:04 am 



yawn…just look at the 2005 peak production with 2% drop yearly. Where are ace and Campbell and deffeyes to eat their crow? Hiding.

dolanbaker on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 11:29 am 



We’ve been living with the “Peak Oil Dynamic” ever since the early 1970s when US oil production peaked in 1970. It took until 1973 for the shortfalls in production and the inability of OPEC nations to ramp up quick enough for the “supply crunch” to materialise.

Then the “Arab Oil Embargo” was invented to hide the shortfall and to allow for drastic measures to be introduced without panicking the population to the real issue. At that time peak oil was confronted very successfully as almost everything changed almost overnight with speed limits, people turning down thermostats & insulating houses, substituting oil for other fuels where ever possible. Plus the trump card, oil prices rising enough to make previously “too expensive” fields viable. We recently had a repeat run in 2005.

Just imagine what the global oil consumption would be like if those crisis’s had never happened (assuming infinite supply), I would guess at at least four times the consumption figures of today and at a price of about $10 a barrel. The real issue for consumers is the fact that the cost is too high to allow for any more consumption.

Perk Earl on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 1:25 pm 



Not sure when this video first came out, but I saw it some time ago.

Nony on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 1:49 pm 



peak oil: such a dying meme, that reruns are needed. 😉

bobinget on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 2:13 pm 



Ms Foss runs up against an old enemy for predictors,
‘time’. If I could give predictors one piece of advice:
Never, I mean NEVER, offer dates. Ms Foss made this video in 2010. One wonders how, if she were able, would she change her talk.

Did MS Foss completely overlook effects of advanced E&P technology? Would she as many others on these pages insist “Fracking shale, like Rock and Roll is only a phase and will in time also pass”. Of course, she was correct about cost structure. Instead of deflation however, we get inflation. Wages for working people remain static while food and energy costs rise.
Living costs continue to rise along with oil prices.

As it turned out finance isn’t as big an issue today in oil markets. Events surrounding the year 632 seem to be a bigger moving force behind oil prices.
Once, it was considered smart to keep poor people uneducated, at subsistence levels. Offer superstition gift wrapped in religious tissue and the ignorant will run with it.. In ‘enlightened’ USA being an atheist
or scientist make a person ineligible for high public office.

American slave owners, as a whole insisted on keeping
their chattel uneducated. Post Civil war the custom
continued almost to this day while hand labor slowly became devalued by machine.
Now we have billions stuck with religious dogma thousands of years out of date without the ability to make proper moral judgments.

Ms Foss like many totally involved in a chosen field
overlooks climate change. To be fair, CC was not the overriding issue five years ago, it is today.

I have friend who will not call any woman pregnant unless he sees a head and two shoulders.
Now, there is a wise predictor.

Northwest Resident on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 2:35 pm 



Nony — Actually, peak oil is such a well proven, accepted and thoroughly documented fact of life that there just isn’t much more that can be said about it that hasn’t already been said.

Of course, there are those (and plenty of them) that either have never heard of peak oil, or who have heard about it but still know nothing about it. For those people, older vids like this one prove to be very informative. The fundamental facts haven’t changed at all since the vid was produced. Kind of like a video on how to compute the surface area of a triangle created several years ago is still just as valid today as it was back when it was created — nothing has changed the fundamental science between now and then.

Right?

Northwest Resident on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 2:40 pm 



dolanbaker — I think you may be on to something. Then, a couple of years or so after the gas lines and radical changes brought on by that oil embargo, Jimmy Carter was elected president. And who was the first (and only?) American president to clearly explain to the American people that we faced national security level issues with energy supplies (oil) in the future? Jimmy Carter.

dolanbaker on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 3:01 pm 



NW, yes, If Carter had been able to actually follow through on what he had started, then phase two (in 2005) of the peak oil saga may well have been delayed by several years. As it was he was replaced by Presidents who totally reversed his plans and caused a rapid increase in consumption by promoting the “cheap & plentiful oil” card and people ran with it.

bobinget on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 3:12 pm 



With all that World Cup excitement we forgot about Yemen. Yemen won’t be exporting average 100,000
B P/d for some time due to bomb inflicted pipeline rupture.

Nony on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 3:45 pm 



NWR: read the API links you were given.

Northwest Resident on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 4:58 pm 



Nony — What API links was I given?

Nony on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 5:24 pm 



http://peakoil.com/production/tech-talk-of-longer-wells-and-drawdown-pressure

They have been given to you previously.

Also Rockman reprimanded you for the “the oil is crap” meme.

Northwest Resident on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 5:55 pm 



Nony — Still hanging your hat on shale plays and fracked oil, I see. It figures.

“They”? I see one link there, not many. Also, if that link had been “given” to me previously, who gave it, when was it given, and why would I even remember being given it if I noticed that I had been given it at all?

rockman did not “reprimand” me for the shale oil is crap statement (meme?), at least I definitely didn’t feel reprimanded. WTF Nony? My original oil was “compared to conventional oil, shale oil is crap” — go look it up. And it is for many reasons, not least of which is because of the amount of energy it takes to get that barrel of shale oil versus the typical barrel of conventional oil — and the environmental cost of getting that barrel of shale oil — and the energy required to convert that shale oil into something useable — and the list goes on and on.

Your point that peak oil is a “dying meme” and that is why “reruns” are needed is totally false, as is so much of what you post here.

And furthermore — let’s look at the definition of “meme”:

an element of a culture or system of behavior that may be considered to be passed from one individual to another by nongenetic means, especially imitation

Given that standard definition, how is my saying shale oil is crap compared to conventional oil a “meme”? Answer: It isn’t, you just like using the “meme” word because it makes you feel smart — just guessing.

And given that definition, how is peak oil — a concept based on fact — a “meme”?

Take a break Nony. You’ve used up your hourly allotment of bullshit mistakes and false statements.

Nony on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 6:07 pm 



You still have not read and responded to the comparison of a Bakken assay to WTI.

Northwest Resident on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 6:27 pm 



Nony — I take rockman’s word for it that the quality of shale oil coming from certain parts of the Bakken is comparable to WTI in terms of producing transportation fuel. And I don’t doubt but that other shale oils coming from perhaps other places in the Bakken or in other plays might also be reasonably decent quality for producing transportation fuels.

But how does that relate to your statement that “peak oil: such a dying meme, that reruns are needed”?

Is the Bakken going to last forever? Or for just another few years? Maybe just another year or two before inevitable significant declines kick in?

I know your point of view, Nony. You believe that shale oil — or more specifically, shale NG — is going to be around in the quantity and at the price needed to power the world far into the future. They just need to keep fracking, spend the trillion$ required to build out the infrastructure and convert everything to run on NG — all will be well — peak oil is dead in the water. After all, just look at those NG futures!

Sorry to burst your bubble Nony. Peak Oil is not a dying meme, it is more relevant today than ever before. The U.S. Government is preparing for it, the U.S. Military is preparing for, Homeland Security is preparing for it — and everybody who can add two plus two together is preparing for it.

I don’t mind that you do the cheerleading section for shale oil/NG, I just have to counter your fantasies posted on this board with the realistic perspective in case some newbie comes along searching for info — wouldn’t want an open mind to get misled by your optimistic predictions for NG which have no connection to reality.

Nony on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 7:13 pm 



I just wanted to nail down the Bakken oil thing. We can fight about the other stuff elsewhere. I am fine with you having a different opinion on a broad qualitative subject which has no “right” answer. It’s a little strange that you go off of Rockman versus wanting to look up some studies. I think he, despite his big frog in small pond act, is very much of a data driven guy. He would want you to look at the study, not just go off of appeal to authority.

Peace, brah.

rollin on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 7:50 pm 



She makes a lot of sense, but who is listening? Way less than 1 percent.

Calhoun on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 8:22 pm 



So many posts from Nony. None of them that I have seen contain his prediction of future oil production. It’s easy to criticize, so much harder to put your own neck on the line.

Calhoun on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 8:51 pm 



ps, I’m no fan of Foss. Of all the PO opportunitsts/self promoters, she’s in a class by herself — even compared to Chris Martenson, and that’s saying something

Makati1 on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 10:29 pm 



EVERYTHING depends on the current world economy holding together. There are no ‘peaks’ that will not happen when that system crashes. After, when we try to pick up the pieces, it will be a very non-hydrocarbon world, I think. I read Nicole with a grain of salt. She is still BAU oriented.

steve on Tue, 15th Jul 2014 12:24 am 



Makati “I read Nicole with a grain of salt. She is still BAU oriented.” And how does that differ from your opinion? Oh yeah, your opinion is death to America and the Philippines will thrive and do great….you are an naive narcissist….

steve on Tue, 15th Jul 2014 12:26 am 



Oh yeah and how are her comments any different from Gail the actuary…. they both seem to be selling the same story…although they would disagree….gail seems to have come to the game later…has to up the ante so to speak….” collapse in 2015!”