Peak Oil is You
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Page added on July 11, 2014
Are We Running Out of Oil?
For many years, a number of industry experts have been sounding the alarm that America, and the world, are about to run out of oil.
This is nothing new. In 1914, the Bureau of Mines said that U.S. oil reserves would be exhausted by 1924. The Interior Department said global reserves would last 13 years… and that was in 1939. In 1956, Shell Oil geoscientist Marion King Hubbert advanced his peak oil theory, which said that world oil production had peaked and would begin to decline until all of the oil was gone.
Every expert who’s predicted “the end of oil” has been wrong in the past. But with global energy consumption at an all-time high, and much of the world’s economy dependent on oil, the question needs to be asked:
Are we running out of oil?…
The Peak Oil Theory
Hubbert (shown at left), whose distinguished career also included stints as a senior research geophysicist for the United States Geological Survey and professorships at Stanford University and UC Berkeley, believed that oil production looked like a bell curve.
Just as the production from an individual oil well will peak and then decline, so, he theorized, would global oil production. He called his bell curve “peak oil” – global oil production had peaked in the 1950s, he stated, and would begin a slow, but inevitable, decline to zero.
Most readers of Oil & Energy Investor know that I don’t subscribe to the peak oil position. Hubbert argued that we were running out of crude oil and would be moving to bicycles in short order.
Let me explain why I disagree.
Now don’t get me wrong, oil is a diminishing commodity. It has taken millions of years to provide what we are taking out of the ground. Aside from the occasional algae or biofuel farm, you can’t just grow an oil alternative in a matter of weeks.
Even if we could, current technology can’t provide more than a fraction of what would be needed if oil disappeared.
Yet that “disappearance” isn’t going to take place anytime even remotely soon.
Granted, 10 years ago I might have been more sympathetic to the Chicken Little (“The sky is falling”) approach when it came to the amount of crude oil remaining. In those days, I did say (and wrote) that we had about enough oil to possibly last one more generation.
But what I saw as the real issue back then was not the amount of oil remaining, but the reliability of the supply. I foresaw unpredictable disruptions, spot shortages, and a lot of uncertainty in the market.
One factor changed all of that.
19 Comments on "Are We Running Out of Oil?"
bobinget on Fri, 11th Jul 2014 10:36 am
Add “affordable” to the question and we have an entirely different dialog.
Add “peaceful” and we’re talking current events.
Try “conventional” so techies can have a say.
Introduce old question; “Can humanity outlast oil?”
rockman on Fri, 11th Jul 2014 10:48 am
One more total idiot or liar: “…Hubbert… he theorized…global oil production had peaked in the 1950.” No, he didn’t. In FACT, he didn’t even predict the US would see peak production from the fields his statistics were based upon. At least that statement allowed me to stop wasting my time reading this piece of crap.
And yes: global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve…an undeniable FACT. Unfortunately many folks think the term “bell shipped curve” implies a symmetric curve. It doesn’t and never has. It just means the statistic increases at some rate to the max and then decreases at some decline rate. Which, unless one believes in infinite oil reserves, will describe exactly the path of global oil production. In fact, symmetric distribution is virtually unknown in nature…anywhere.
forbin on Fri, 11th Jul 2014 11:16 am
seems another troll article
are we running out of oil ?
Answer – no dont be silly
so does Peak oil theory predict we will run out of oil ?
answer – no , don’t be silly , it predicts only a peak of oil production.
Oil will still be produced after this event.
that you ,personally , will not be able to afford what oil is left depends on you income bracket and staying in that bracket
and as rockman pointed out – bumpy up and bumpy down – roller coaster style
enjoy the ride folks !
Forbin
Nony on Fri, 11th Jul 2014 1:31 pm
The article has the mistakes that Rock says, but Hubbert still screwed up and too many here idolize the man.
Hubber underestimated the role of technology and economics in increasing production. He ignored previous (wrong) predictions of scarcity. Every single one of his predictions of total extraction has been wrong (US oil, US gas, world oil). And they were wrong in a CERTAIN DIRECTION.
I’ve actually read the Hubbert paper and far from making the caveat that Rock repeats (just the trends I am looking at), Hubbert clearly tries to estimate all future production. And makes encompassing statements about all the sedimentary basins, etc.
He screwed up. You all should love the truth more than you love being right. Don’t be a dead end die hard. TOD is dead for a reason…
meld on Fri, 11th Jul 2014 2:26 pm
Another poopunmink who doesn’t understand PEAK oil. Stop posting this shit.
meld on Fri, 11th Jul 2014 2:27 pm
TOD is “dead” for the same reason you don’t see people writing about why the earth is round.
Northwest Resident on Fri, 11th Jul 2014 2:47 pm
meld — Touche!! Sliced and diced.
The object of your ridicule has also claimed that there are more searches for “shale oil” than there are for “peak oil”, as evidence that interest in peak oil has died. But I haven’t done a Google search on peak oil for at least a year — I bet you haven’t either. On the other hand, trying to figure out what shale oil is or isn’t and what it’s implications are, I have done many searches on “shale oil”. None of which proves that my interest in peak oil has declined — exactly the opposite. The more I learn about shale oil, the more certain peak oil becomes. But don’t tell that to you-know-who or any of his sidekicks. He probably wouldn’t understand anyway.
Bob Owens on Fri, 11th Jul 2014 3:38 pm
Why is this article being posted? There is nothing here that is remotely related to logic. Move along.
GregT on Fri, 11th Jul 2014 4:07 pm
Are we running out of oil?
No, of course not.
Are we running out of the cheap oil needed to run modern industrial society?
Yes.
Are we running out of human stupidity?
No. Apparently that is something that we will never run out of, as long as our species is still around.
Nony on Fri, 11th Jul 2014 7:15 pm
Fascinating to read some of the old peaker prognostication. Here is a paper from Art Berman on how the Marcellus will fall short:
http://www.oilandgaslawyerblog.com/Arthur%20Berman%20on%20Marcellus.pdf
Amazing how bad it is. Most of it isn’t even discussing the MArcellus. Totally thin. Doesn’ make any definitive statement on what expectation will fall flat (e.g. EIA). And EIA, etc. predictions have been blown out of the water by Marcellus. I guess he can go say we don’t have 100 eyars of supply or something. But all complaining about how development won’t happen below $8 has been blown out of the water.
Oh…and natural gas is at a record low for the year. So much for the running out of steam and low inventor and all that.
REally the Marcellus has crushed Berman. Funny reading that TOD thread and everyone riding Art’s jock too. And then the facts have shown how wrong he was. And he still runs around laying his rap out there. What a joke. No wonder the industry thinks he’s a joke.
Makati1 on Fri, 11th Jul 2014 9:26 pm
Thanks for the chuckle, GregT.
Human stupidity seems to be on that hockey stick graph we frequently see. It is the steeply climbing line on the right. I don’t think there is a limit or peak.
Perk Earl on Fri, 11th Jul 2014 10:04 pm
It’s amazing how simplistic some people are when it comes to spectrums of possibilities. It’s like their brains only understand the light switch is on or it’s off, but if a dimmer is wired in they cannot comprehend increments of full illumination.
For them either there is an infinite source of oil or we have run out, therefore any available oil means we will never run out.
Either there is an ice age or normal fluctuating weather, and therefore no gradual increase in energy input into the weather system via GHG’s is conceivably a concern.
The basic viewpoint is on/off, right/wrong, good/bad with no apparent ability to perceive positions within a spectrum. I would say this is a 2/3 human, in which only the first two brain layers, reptilian and mammalian are active. Only those capable of comprehending a spectrum of possibilities has an active neo-cortex (3rd brain layer) and is a full human (albeit still evolving greater usage of that layer).
Therefore we live amongst homo-mammalians and homo-cortex’s. You make the call as to which one’s you want to interact with.
Dredd on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 6:01 am
What rockman said, plus some religion for the magic crowd:
So Elijah went to Zarephath, and as he came to the town gate, he saw a widow gathering firewood. “Please bring me a drink of water,” he said to her. And as she was going to get it, he called out, “And please bring me some bread, too.”
She answered, “By the living LORD your God I swear that I don’t have any bread. All I have is a handful of flour in a bowl and a bit of live oil in a jar. I came here to gather some firewood to take back home an d prepare what little I have for my son and me. That will be our last meal, and then we will starve to death.”
“Don’t worry, “Elijah said to her. “Go on and prepare your meal. But first make a small loaf from what you have and bring it to me, and then prepare the rest for you and your son. For this is what the LORD, the God of Israel, says; ‘The bowl will not run out of flour or the jar run out of oil before the day that I, the LORD, send rain.’”
The widow went and did as Elijah had told her, and all of them had enough food for many days. As the LORD had promised through Elijah, the bowl did not run out of flour nor did the jar run out of oil.
(The Peak of The Oil Lies – 7). Oil-Qaeda got magic.
dashster on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 7:01 am
No surprise that if you comment below his article it doesn’t get published.
Meld on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 8:49 am
@ Peak Earl – In Druidry we call that binary thinking and we try to overcome it by using ternary thinking, which is pretty much as you just explained. The whole world is obsessed with binary thinking, Good/Evil, God/Devil, Liberal/Conservative, Black/White, On/Off, infinite/depleted. It’s a pretty good rule of thumb to ignore anyone who thinks in Binaries as they are probably making decisions based on emotion rather than clarity.
Dredd on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 9:33 am
@Meld,
“It’s a pretty good rule of thumb to ignore anyone who thinks in Binaries as they are probably making decisions based on emotion rather than clarity.”
Descarte started the false “mind vs body” meme in the 17th Century.
That meme is now considered to be false: “Probably 98 percent of your reasoning is unconscious – what your brain is doing behind the scenes. Reason is inherently emotional. You can’t even choose a goal, much less form a plan and carry it out, without a sense that it will satisfy you, not disgust you. Fear and anxiety will affect your plans and your actions. You act differently, and plan differently, out of hope and joy than out of fear and anxiety.
Thought is physical. Learning requires a physical brain change: Receptors for neurotransmitters change at the synapses, which changes neural circuitry. Since thinking is the activation of such circuitry, somewhat different thinking requires a somewhat different brain. Brains change as you use them-even unconsciously. It’s as if your car changed as you drove it, say from a stick shift gradually to an automatic.” (The Toxic Bridge To Everywhere, quoting from “What Orwell Didn’t Know”). Subconscious fears get to help form and shape our thoughts before they are then handed off to our ~2% conscious mind.
Peak oil and global warming denial are examples of that operation.
Sudhir Jatar on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 11:00 am
No doubt these people are in denial not only about peak oil and global warming but also about the shortage of water and the resultant conflicts that would accrue.
Water is at a premium for unconventional petroleum, which literally sucks the earth potable water but also contaminates it so that our future generations will be at a loss to assess the remedy
Meld on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 4:12 pm
@Dredd- Ternary thinking is the understanding that in general the best mind state or course of action is that which is between two vices. IE. Bravery exists between foolhardiness and cowardice. Basically it’s moderation, which is sadly becoming crushed among our current cultures desires for extreme opposites. One sees it everywhere, from those who think that either
A) peak oil and climate change will be solved by tech and that humans will shoot off into the stars
or
B) Peak oil and climate change will bring about the extinction of the human race within decades
Neither of these outcomes is likely to be true and a more likely scenario is a muddling through decline that lasts several centuries until a new dark age is reached. A few centuries later a new civilisation will once again rise from the ashes and the cyclical nature of history continues on.
Dredd on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 5:59 pm
@Meld,
Toynbee chronicled that: “In other words, a society does not ever die ‘from natural causes’, but always dies from suicide or murder — and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown.” – A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee
Our only choice is to choose which method at our disposal we shall use, or instead choose to dispose of both of those methods (nuke or fossil fuel).
History counsels that we will make the wrong choice.
And that wrong choice will be cheered on by Oil-Qaeda.