Peak Oil is You
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Page added on July 4, 2014
Highly Motivating Facts About Resource Depletion
Coal production in Britain peaked in 1913. World War I began the very next year. This is also when the Reserve Currency status of the British Pound Sterling began to fade as the world began to prefer the US Dollar. This is also around the time that the Federal Reserve was created and the US went mostly off the gold standard.
Coal production in Britain decreased rapidly again in the late 1920s after coal miners went on strike due to long hours and brutal work conditions. Only a few years later the world was sliding towards economic depression.
In 1971 US oil production came to a peak and began to decline. The following decade saw two energy crises and extreme economic stagflation. This is also the time when the US went off the gold standard completely.
In 1987 oil production in the Soviet Union peaked and began to decline. By 1991, after political and economic collapse, the country became the Former Soviet Union.
In 1998 Argentine oil production peaked and began to decline. In 1999 the country experienced a violent economic and political collapse.
In 1999 UK North Sea oil production peaked and began a sharp decline. This was followed closely by the popping of the tech bubble, 9/11, a massive war for resources (oil) in Iraq and lots of money printing.
In 2005 global conventional crude oil production peaked (led by Mexico) and began to decline. Since then we’ve seen a great recession, more resource wars, food price inflation, food riots, the Arab Spring, Occupy Wall Street and unprecedented amounts of money printing. The Federal Reserved Printed more US Dollars in the last 45 days than existed in 1980.
According to the press none of that matters now because of the newly profitable oil resources in Texas and North Dakota. The one in North Dakota is called The Bakken and is said to contain about 167,000,000,000 barrels of oil (or more). That is enough to keep the US economy running for 24 years at current rates of consumption.
24 years doesn’t really sound that great but at least it is something.
Unfortunately it isn’t going to work out that way.
The Average Bakken Oil Well
A single Bakken well costs upwards of $10,000,000.00 to drill, frack and re-stimulate (by re-fracking).
Once this is complete that well can continue producing oil for up to 45 years.
In that 45 years the average well produces 665.000 barrels of oil.
Now that we have the facts we can begin asking questions.
Q: How long does it take for the world to consume 665,000 barrels of oil?
A: 643 seconds.
That doesn’t sound good but all we have to do is drill enough wells and we’re set, right? If we do some math here we can calculate that we will need to drill 1,177,000 wells to reach that target. So now we ask more questions.
Q: How many wells can be drilled per square mile?
A: 4
Q: How big is The Bakken?
A: 14,700 square miles.
If we do the math at this point we realize that we can only fit 58,000 tight oil wells in The Bakken.
If each of those wells produces the average then we can expect no more than 39,102,000,000 barrels of oil.
Q: How long does it take for the world to consume 39,102,000,000 barrels of oil?
A: 438 days.
Plan Ahead – Plant A Garden
11 Comments on "Highly Motivating Facts About Resource Depletion"
rockman on Fri, 4th Jul 2014 10:31 am
“How big is The Bakken? 14,700 square miles. If we do the math at this point we realize that we can only fit 58,000 tight oil wells in The Bakken.”
Even when they knock the potential of the Bakken they make utterly foolish projections. The vast majority of the Bakken boom has come from just a handful of counties. The production isn’t anywhere close to being evenly distributed across the Williston Basin to allow for the estimate they offer. There have been wells drilled that didn’t just fail to produce the average recovery: they didn’t produce anything because the Bakken formation wasn’t even present in that area.
So even when a critic spouts off they expose their ignorance. Can we elect any better from the Bakken optimists?
Plantagenet on Fri, 4th Jul 2014 11:03 am
Where does this article get the 39 BILLION bbls of oil?
The current USGS estimate is that there are about 7 BILLION bbls of oil in the Bakken.
Dave Thompson on Fri, 4th Jul 2014 11:40 am
Reality? Check.
DMyers on Fri, 4th Jul 2014 8:42 pm
On a second reading three hours after the first, I come away with a different message. The writer, who goes by the moniker, The Universe, is perhaps making two points in the second half. He’s actually illustrating “Rockman’s Theory of the Overly Extended Average”, and the absurdity it reaches, and he’s showing that even if it were all the proponents promise, and much more, it really wouldn’t be shit in the scheme of things.
The first half is an interesting presentation of various cases where peak oil preceded decline or economic turmoil. These coincidences may not prove cause and effect, but they strongly suggest the need for further research.
Makati1 on Fri, 4th Jul 2014 8:46 pm
The closer we get to the end, the bigger the lies.
rollin on Sat, 5th Jul 2014 12:06 am
The writer has discovered that crude oil is a limited resource. What next, that the resource is also economically dependent?
Such cutting edge writing.
Actually the maximum number of wells for the Bakken in ND was determined to be about 37000.
Not too sure about the 45 year range of fracked wells, they drop off fairly fast. Could be more like 20.
Norm on Sat, 5th Jul 2014 1:45 am
Hope everybody had a great 4th of July ! This the day we celebrate that Jesus Christ discovered America, and began the first government, called Wal-Mart. The first president was Ronald McDonald, who put in the ruling system of government, consisting of 3 houses of Congress, which are McDonalds, Burger King, and Denny’s. Rush Limbaugh designed the rockets that put a man onto the moon. And then along came evil Obama, who ruined it all with his food stamp and welfare programs. That’s why you have to vote for Mitt Romney for President, to make America mighty again. Happy 4th !!
GregT on Sat, 5th Jul 2014 5:49 pm
Hmm,
And here I thought the 4th of July was the celebration of independence from Mexico? Way back when Jack Daniels was still president, and Bud Weiser was vice?
Arthur on Sat, 5th Jul 2014 6:42 pm
Fortunately the writing of the Declaration of Independence could be outsourced to the cloggies:
http://www.news.wisc.edu/3049
The original was two centuries older
#actevanverlatinghe1581
DMyers on Sat, 5th Jul 2014 10:35 pm
Arthur,
We all know the Jews stole some of their religious stories (e.g., Noah and the flood) from the Sumerians. The story of Jesus was plagiarized from other civilizations (e.g. Egypt). There is historical precedent for stealing this type of archetypal material and making it one’s own. The Dutch copied it from someone else.
There’s been nothing original in the past five thousand years.
Let America feel special. That’s the least a cultured European could do. We don’t know any better. We think it was our idea. I lit a firecracker last night (illegally), in the furtherance of that belief. I’ll probably go to jail for doing so and admitting it in this public forum, but it’s worth it to defend an illusion so dear.
Makati1 on Sun, 6th Jul 2014 2:37 am
DMeyers, yes, you could be labeled a ‘terrorist’ for having explosives. Or even catching rainwater for your garden…lol.
Here in the PS, New Years is like nothing I have EVER seen in the US. The fireworks here are as dangerous as any in the US but the only thing the government does is warn people to be careful. Of course, there are still accidents and it is obvious why. The city covers about 20 square miles(8+ miles X 20+ miles) and has over 15 million people.
About 11 PM New Years Eve, the fireworks begin. For the next two plus hours there is a constant war sound in the air as millions go off all over the city. Yes, millions. A photo will capture hundreds every second and if you do the math, it is a fantastic amount of fireworks. Everything from strings of firecrackers to the high air bursts, constantly, for over two hours. When dawn breaks there is still the haze of gun powder smoke over the city. THAT is a New Years celebration! Then there is a lessor one on the Chinese New Years, also celebrated here.
The Filipinos enjoy more real freedom than Americans.