Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on June 10, 2014
Canadian Oil Producers’ Group Cuts Oil-Sands Production Forecast
A lobby group that represents Canada’s oil industry is still expecting the output from Canada’s oil patch to almost double over the next two decades, but the growth is a little lower than previously forecast.
The Calgary-based Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said in its annual forecast Monday it expects Canada to produce 6.4 million barrels of crude oil a day by 2030. That’s almost twice as much as the 3.5 million barrels a day the country produced last year, but not as much as the 6.7 million barrels a day the agency previously thought would be produced by 2030.
The drop of 300,000 barrels a day represents a reduction of 4.4 per cent.
The agency is still expecting growth in both segments of the market — the largely untapped oilsands, and also conventional oil deposits. While increased activity from the Athabasca oilsands basin is no surprise, an increase in output from conventional oil in the coming decades is a bit unexpected.
But the agency credits new technologies for the uptick.”Conventional oil production continues to reverse its previous long decline because of the continuing use of horizontal and multi-fracturing drilling techniques.”
Activity in Canada’s oilsands is expected to expand drastically, but CAPP says the pace of growth is slowing as companies run into much higher costs, attributing the slowdown to “cost competitiveness and delays in project schedules.”
French multinational oil conglomerate Total SA last month shelved its Joslyn project, an $11-billion oilsands development that was supposed to come online by 2020, because of cost overruns.
Projects in Western Canada are also dealing with a recent spike in natural gas prices, which is the energy source that’s powering much of Alberta’s oil activity.
As it stands, Canadian oil sells at a discount to its U.S counterpart because of supply issues, and the fact that Canada’s oil is largely dependent on being shipped to refineries abroad for processing.
All that new oil may only exacerbate a growing mismatch between the oil being pumped, and getting it to market. As politicians, corporations and environmentalists clash over building new pipelines, oil-by-rail has quietly grown to be a shipping alternative, causing its own set of bottlenecks as other shippers say all the railcars are being diverted to carry crude.
In its report, CAPP says that trend won’t abate any time soon, as it expects the rail industry to ship 700,000 barrels of Western Canadian oil a day by rail by 2016. That’s an exponential growth rate from the amount of crude that has historically been moved by train in Canada.
17 Comments on "Canadian Oil Producers’ Group Cuts Oil-Sands Production Forecast"
shortonoil on Tue, 10th Jun 2014 10:34 am
In our report we predict that unconventional sources will be phased out before conventional. That is because they are closer to the breakeven point to start with, and they have to bare the same increased production cost rate as conventional. That is now about 3% per year. The likely hood that the tar sands will double their production is likely approaching zero.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Northwest Resident on Tue, 10th Jun 2014 10:46 am
shortonoil — I love your posts, always informative, to the point and obviously coming from a very knowledgeable person. But “likely hood”??? Being a journalism/public relations graduate where even one punctuation, spelling or grammar error would result in an automatic drop from “A” grade to “B”, or “B” to “C” (etc..), it pains me to see “likely hood” instead of “likelihood”. Just saying… 🙂
Davey on Tue, 10th Jun 2014 11:01 am
N/R give him a break my grade would be a D- I am going to have to watch for some NR weaknesses…lol
Northwest Resident on Tue, 10th Jun 2014 11:15 am
Davey — I’ve been cutting all kinds of slack!! It is just that “likely hood” instead of “likelihood” broke my will to refrain from critiquing! It is one of those big, throbbing, bold-font, red-blinking errors that just has to be made an example out of!! Sorry… 🙂
Mike999 on Tue, 10th Jun 2014 11:59 am
Solar will be cheaper then coal, in just 2 years.
For China and the US.
No fool would ever invest another Penny into TARSANDS GARBAGE at that point.
Even now, no one on Wall Street is stupid enough to finance a capacity increase.
TAR SANDS is D-E-A-D.
Unless Capitalism is run by Idiots who like to Lose Money.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 10th Jun 2014 12:39 pm
Yeap Mike, but for how long will your solar renaissance last. I doubt much longer. The real cost will shoot up once the cost of money goes up and the loss making manufacturing excess capacity dries up. Still I hope it lasts as long as possible it is a great bottom up addition to a lifeboat prep. Lights are essential for productivity. It will allow this needed productivity as the grid destabilizes.
poaecdotcom on Tue, 10th Jun 2014 1:06 pm
Solar is simply an extension of the ff paradigm in my opinion, a footnote at best.
Unless Solar energy can produce solar panels (think: mining, transport, electrical infrastructure, financing etc.)then it simply an extension technology.
We are going after low quality tar sludge simply because it is the bottom of the barrel ff and sadly we will be scraping that barrel as long and as hard as we can.
With or without solar.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 10th Jun 2014 1:47 pm
Very true POA, It amazes me the groups falsely promoting an AltE future. We can link the AltE fantasy folks up with the Star Trek folks and Robot lovers. I want to ask them “Where’s the “BEEF””” or where are you folks going to find the energy to make your fantasies realities? How are robots going to advance and replicate themselves? How are outposts on Mars going to happen?
Solar is a very important bottom up addition to any prep plan. Folks get some solar. Forget trying to run your modern life on solar. Just get enough to run some LED lights and small draw devices. It will be very important addition when the grid goes unstable. Lighting is an important key item to post industrial productivity.
shortonoil on Tue, 10th Jun 2014 2:22 pm
To NR,
My majors and masters were in engineering, and mathematics. In engineering when you got to your junior year they tested you. If you could spell, or write they kicked you out!
I had to learn the little I know about writing later!
Northwest Resident on Tue, 10th Jun 2014 2:33 pm
shortonoil — I’m just giving you a hard time in a joking kind of way. I’m glad to see you’re taking it that way. Actually, for a scientifically-minded engineering and math guy, I think your writing skills are very good… 🙂
dissident on Tue, 10th Jun 2014 10:48 pm
BS from a lobby group. The only credible forecast is for 3.5 million by 2025.
http://www.financialpost.com/sands+double+output+2025/3132332/story.html
Norm on Wed, 11th Jun 2014 1:44 am
Its very likely, that you are a hood !!
Norm on Wed, 11th Jun 2014 1:45 am
Hey, when is the motor oil gonna run out? I got my popcorn popper going, melted salt an butter, and sunglasses and a stash of guns ammo and boxes of snickers bars buried in plastic pipe in the backyard, now bring on the main event !! definitely impatient.
rockman on Wed, 11th Jun 2014 6:35 am
Technically nothing wrong with the article but the spin effort still bothers me a bit. “…Cuts Oil-Sands Production Forecast”. They currently forecast an increase in oil sands production from 3.5 mmbopd to 6.4 mmbopd. Yes…they did lower the previous forecast but that’s not relevant given that neither number means anything IMHO. To be accurate one not only has the have the geologic model nailed down but, more important, the future price model. And no one can convince me they can accurately predict the price of oil from 2020 to 2030. Thus changes in an unpredictable number are as meaningless as the number itself IMHO.
Now the just silly: “…an increase in output from conventional oil in the coming decades is a bit unexpected.” No…it was very predictable. As mentioned many times every geologist has folders in the back of his file cabinet containing conventional prospects that did not reach an acceptable economic threshold at the time it was generated. Oil prices increasing 300%+ gets those prospects dusted off. I‘m back to the rig tonight to finish drilling my horizontal well in a conventional oil reservoir tonight. I generated the project 10 years ago but the economics didn’t work back then. Last year I drilled 3 exploration wells in the same conventional oil play which would not have been drilled if oil was still less than $40/bbl. I just completed a new Smackover (a 50+ year old play) oil well in Mississippi drilled on 3d seismic that would not have been shot had oil prices remained low.
“…All that new oil may only exacerbate a growing mismatch between the oil being pumped, and getting it to market.” Every bbl of oil sands being produced today is being sold…there is no mismatch. And in the future? Many tens of $BILLIONS are currently being spent to open the production up to more markets…especially overseas. IMHO I think I would wait for the first report of any oil sands producer cutting back his production before I started using words line “mismatch”.
bobinget on Wed, 11th Jun 2014 9:37 am
There’s more tech room for improvement, making solar cells cheaper, without cumbersome panels,
doubling of efficiency, you know ‘Moore’s Law’ kinda stuff then mining oil sands. I’m not saying there won’t be some cost efficiencies found… but the notion of imbedding solar cells in south facing windows, PV roof tiles etc will be tough to beat.
Even today, lousy 17% PV efficiency beats the crap out of a poisonous cloud of coal burning.
bobinget on Wed, 11th Jun 2014 9:40 am
EIA Repore for last week, sweet as Apple Pie
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending June 6, 2014
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 15.5 million barrels per day during the week ending June 6, 2014, 510,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 87.9% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging about 8.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging about 4.9 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 7.1 million barrels per day last week, up by 23,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.1 million barrels per day, 8.1% below the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 560,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 106,000 barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 386.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week, and are in the middle of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels last week but are below the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 3.4 million barrels last week and are in the upper half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged about 18.8 million barrels per day, up by 1.6% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged about 9.1 million barrels per day, up by 2.8% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 1.1% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up 5.5% compared to the same four-week period last year.
bobinget on Wed, 11th Jun 2014 9:59 am
I always read the final paragraph first.
But start from the first anyway.
Note, refineries operated below 88% but still, there was a deficit of 2.6 M B/p/d. Last week was gonzo because we honored our war dead by driving.
Hey guys we are still importing over seven million barrels 24/7. Let’s talk export raw crude when we are importing only a million a day.
The import/export of finished products balances..
news flash: Islamic Militants have overrun Tikret on their way to Baghdad. (no joke) More soon.