Peak Oil is Here

13 Comments on "Peak Oil is Here"

Brandon on Thu, 22nd May 2014 11:27 pm 



Its only a matter of time until everyone sees that PEAK OIL is the TRUTH. ANd that we will and ARE going to deplete what oil we have left in the ground. It amazes me that people think we will never run out and that the oil just keeps coming. Look at the recent report of the Shale formation in California that was estimated to have 13.6 BILIION BBLS of Oil, and yesterday they come out and say we were wrong, there is only about 600 Million BBLS of recoverable Oil now at the current technology. So if we extracted all 600 Million BBLS at once that would only fuel the US needs for 33 DAYS. Come on people wake up and smell the Coffee. WE need to be planning ahead on what we are going to do when it finally sets in and People Start to Panic. Have you wondered why the US Gov. Is buying up Millions upon Millions of rounds of Ammo, and stocking up on Food and Water Supplies. They know something is up and that when the public finally catches on it will be to late. Its not that we cant survive without OIL, we have before. Its just that you don’t know how your neighbor will respond to it. Or what people will do when they begin to panic!

GregT on Fri, 23rd May 2014 12:18 am 



Brandon,

Make plans for yourself. Nobody else is going to do it for you. You are already far ahead of most, use this to your advantage.

pat on Fri, 23rd May 2014 2:07 am 



the world is desperately scraping through last barrels of oil, taking to highly negative eroei unconventional sources to hardly meet the unpredented rising demand. its only the world to see shortages as early as 2015, time start learn to grow food, make preparations….

HARM on Fri, 23rd May 2014 2:22 am 



Since the “Olduvai” population line starts going flat around 2010 and negative after that, we can say with confidence, this particular graph missed at least one mark. One thing human beings are fantastic at is making more of ourselves. And we don’t need fossil fuel to keep doing that.

J-Gav on Fri, 23rd May 2014 3:59 am 



The Olduvai Theory really caught my attention when I first encountered it around 1997. There are some weird things about it though.

For example, how do you figure that industrial civilization began in (even “circa”) 1930? That seems off by a century or more, doesn’t it?

Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 23rd May 2014 5:42 am 



I have reservations about anything smooth in the beginning decent phase of a systematic disequilibrium. I especially see the population curve as suspect. I see at a minimum a significant drop in population at some point in the first decent dip. A correction in population could be a 10% drop within maybe a 5 year period and a more significant 20% drop during the decent phase period until reboot. The decent phase period could be 10 years. The 5 and 10 is just a typical predictive period. There is actually no way to predict the period length because of the inclusion of chaos into this decent phase. This decent phase can be characterized by the systematic drop because of a break from an unstable disequilibrium in systematic position. The global system will never recover the level of complexity seen today. Without this complexity level the global system cannot support the level of population we see today. Once complexity is lost the system must return to its longer term cyclical nature of growth post decent. Currently the resources needed to reach the current BAU position are depleted. A new and different complexity may be seen but it will not be industrial, it will not be global, it will not have such a large population. The reason it will not be industrial, global, and populous is because of the end of productive fossil fuel extraction. This new and different complexity will take generations to recover. A very significant possibility is complexity will be completely lost since the skills, knowledge and resources to renew a post industrial complex society have been discarded in the name of growth, efficiency and industrial complexity seen in today’s BAU.

Our current BAU system is at limits of growth facing diminishing returns with a population in overshoot. All essential support structures and vital resources of food/water/energy are under stress. The all-important trade and exchange structure of our global system is in dysfunction and in a Ponzi arrangement. The current global system is making payments to past stake holders with funds collected from new participants and future generations. In fact this is more insidious because it is the wealthy 1%ers that are getting the payments at the expense of the bottom productive classes and increasingly disenfranchised poverty class. What is the poverty classes giving, well, they are giving up the opportunity to live normal productive lives by BAU’s definition. The global system can be characterized by complexity gone dysfunctional in corruption, manipulation, and disregard for laws with stake holder participants in a patronage system. A system in this state of corruption is in decay. Once in decay a system cannot recover healthy growth. It must fail. Since out system is so far out of a normal systematic equilibrium on nearly every level the break will be large, ugly, and painful. The break will be global with all dependent locals affected. There is little chance of our population avoiding a 10% drop and a significant probability of a 20% drop over the decent phase period. Decents are generally erratic because of chaos. Chaos in a system is characterized by bifurcation with randomness. There is no certainty. Randomness is not smooth. Population may level off smooth but population decline will probably not be smooth.

Pops on Fri, 23rd May 2014 11:14 am 



Brandon and all,

I invite you to come into the forum and talk about preparing for the future, share the actions you’ve taken and or ask your questions.

http://peakoil.com/forums/planning-for-the-future-f8.html

You have to register to post and that takes a couple of steps (spam! Argh!) but it is the oldest forum specifically about preparing for a PO future on the net – I know, I started it!

Come on in and share.

J-Gav on Fri, 23rd May 2014 12:42 pm 



Pops – Thanks for the invitation! Sounds like a real-world initiative.

If I haven’t gone there it’s because i’m not sure I’d have much to contribute. I’m one of those “stuck in the city” types for the time being and don’t have any opportunity to implement any of the things I’d like to try if I had a piece of land and a small house (plus a small barn and a greenhouse).

So I limit myself to modestly trying to keep up (on paper) with what you pioneers are doing, paring down my already comparatively low consumption habits and taking a peek at a potential new skill or two (Ham radio operation and using an old-style, hand-operated printing press would be two – in case the net goes down) but almost none of it is actually at a ‘hands-on’ stage yet so I have very little to offer.

J-Gav on Fri, 23rd May 2014 1:01 pm 



Davy – “Erratic” is probably the right word for the (little) ups and (somewhat bigger) downs we’re likely to be experiencing in the coming decade.

But you know, if some “ugly and painful” seems inevitable at this point, I don’t agree that randomness can never be smooth (or, at a minimum, productive)- it is, after all, what got us and all the other species going on this planet in the first place (unless you believe in ‘intelligent design.’)

Chaos, on the other hand, is a horse of a different color. And, as you suggest, if it comes to that, all bets are off.

dolanbaker on Fri, 23rd May 2014 2:04 pm 



Another one of those “Oranges are the only fruit” type of a story, if oil was the only fuel then we would be facing a catastrophe in the near future.

But substitution and efficiency improvements will push out the day of reckoning a few more years. Things will of course change and change in a big way, but we’re centuries away from the final collapse which will send human civilisation back to the dark ages.

All you have to do is look at oil consumption trends since the early 1970s to understand this, oil consumers have at least quadrupled while supply has less than doubled. The cost of oil relative to income will eventually force people out of long distance driving or into more fuel efficient cars in a continuation of a cycle that has been in progress since the mid 1970s

northwestresident on Fri, 23rd May 2014 2:10 pm 



Pops — I took your advice and posted just now in the “planning for the future” forum. I like the members-only area, now that I’m looking into it, because I don’t see any crazy whacked out or retarded posters there, which we seem to have a few of here in the guest section. Davy and others — it looks like a good place to compare notes on farming/food raising and related activities. Maybe I’ll see you all in there.

energyskeptic on Fri, 23rd May 2014 3:27 pm 



In terms of planning for the future, it’s time to bring back the 60s –turn on, tune in, and drop out. Some of us totally “got it” after the first 2 warning shots of oil shocks in 1973 and 1979. But it’s awfully hard to do, we’re trapped like insects in the silk web of infrastructure wrought by cheap and plentiful oil – how to wriggle out? It didn’t happen back then for many reasons — see my book review of Back from the Land: How Young Americans Went to Nature in the 1970s, and Why They Came Back at http://energyskeptic.com/2011/why-back-to-the-land-failed/

I also think that based on Turchin’s studies of the collapse of past nations and civilizations, the crisis phase lasts for at least 20 years if not longer, it’s very hard to restore order once it’s been lost. http://energyskeptic.com/2014/book-review-secular-cycles-and-war-peace-war/

Though maybe because so many Americans have guns and our architecture is so open and not defendable the die-off phase will be fast and the crisis phase shorter.

Or perhaps because most Americans are insanely out of touch with reality, they can be made to swallow the idea of sacrifice for solar and wind power and lowering global warming and not panic, be talked into giving up their cars so gasoline can be provided to absolutely essential agricultural tractors, trucks, etc. But reality can’t be held off forever. At some point, probably when massive food shortages strike, it will be clear that solar, wind etc can’t fill in for fossil fuels.

Kenz300 on Sun, 25th May 2014 6:39 am 



The fossil fuel industry will do all they can keep the world using fossil fuels and block any increase use in alternatives…….. Lies, half truths and misinformation are spread to make it look like fossil fuels will last long into the future.

It is time to speed up the transition to cleaner, safer and cheaper alternative energy sources.

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