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Page added on April 17, 2014
Energy Crunch: The end of business as usual for fossil fuels?
Image via Voice0Reason/flickr. Creative Commons 2.0 license.
Three things you shouldn’t miss this week
- Article: IPCC climate change report: averting catastrophe is eminently affordable – Landmark UN analysis concludes global roll-out of clean energy would shave only a tiny fraction off economic growth.
- Chart: Solar energy costs rapidly approaching those of conventional energy sources.
Business Insider – Data based on utility-scale solar costs in developing markets with lots of sun. - Article: Putin warns Europe of gas shortages over Ukraine debts – Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned European leaders that Ukraine’s delays in paying for Russian gas have created a “critical situation”.
It’s the end of business as usual for fossil fuels. That’s according to the latest report from the IPCC, released on Sunday. This third report in a recent series looks at climate change mitigation, and while the language around the release is fairly upbeat – keeping temperature increases below 2°C is still possible and affordable – the underlying message is dire. Global emissions are still rising (atmospheric CO2 levels hit a new high of 402ppm last week), fossil fuels are the main culprit, and current trajectories point to 3.7 to 4.8°C of warming by the end of the century.
Looking at the good news first, the IPCC report highlights the huge potential of maturing renewable power technologies to provide a low carbon energy transition. This point is made even more robustly in a recent note from AllianceBernstein on the cost of solar – see our chart of the week, which shows the cost of solar power plunging towards those of most conventional sources of energy. The writers point out that the chart reflects solar costs in developing markets with lots of sun but, as they say, this is exactly where much of the growth in energy demand is. Michael Parker of AllianceBernstein is so gung ho on solar that he sees rapid deflation of fossil fuel prices as the key risk to a solar future once investors realise the danger to their assets.
Of course, cutting emissions means not only ramping up renewables, but also ensuring fossil fuels are neutralised – either by capturing the carbon or not burning them in the first place. Scenarios to stabilise emissions at 450ppm by the end of the century demand enormous emissions reductions, yet figures from the International Energy Agency show that fossil fuels are at at 82% of the global energy mix, the same as 25 years ago despite the recent rise of renewables. While technology is moving fast, solar currently provides just 3% of global electricity, so other strategies such as energy efficiency and behavioural change are essential.
The worsening crisis in Ukraine is a stark reminder of how geopolitics could derail optimism about solar and the transition to low carbon energy. Russia’s warnings about the gas supply have spurred calls to get fracking in Europe for the sake of energy security – but this could only add to global emissions. The next pivotal round of talks on global climate measures is scheduled for Paris in 2015, and negotiations could be even more fraught than usual if the US, Europe and Russia are still at diplomatic loggerheads. For the rest of us, why wait for Paris? Take a look at what the folks at Wadebridge Renewable Energy Network (WREN) are doing to change the energy story where they are for some great inspiration of what you could take part in.
10 Comments on "Energy Crunch: The end of business as usual for fossil fuels?"
Makati1 on Thu, 17th Apr 2014 11:16 am
Of course it is over for hydrocarbons. We are heading down the other side with just enough left to complete the assassination of the planet, or at least most of the life on it.
But, ‘renewable’ energy is also a myth so it is not going to save us.
meld on Thu, 17th Apr 2014 11:27 am
it’s never over for fossil fuels.
Methane Hydrates next!
there is more energy in methane hydrates than in all the world’s oil, coal and gas put together.
It’s our moral duty to mine this shit out of these!
/sarc
Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 17th Apr 2014 11:52 am
ARTICLE SAID – International Energy Agency show that fossil fuels are at 82% of the global energy mix, the same as 25 years ago despite the recent rise of renewables. While technology is moving fast, solar currently provides just 3% of global electricity, so other strategies such as energy efficiency and behavioral change are essential.
Well this article is what it is and that is the AltE lobby of “technology and clean energy” to the rescue. At least they admit we are at 3% market penetration and have a long way to go. They also mention efficiency which in reality is nearing diminishing returns in a broke global economy at limits of growth in macro diminishing returns. The last mention is the most important but the biggest predicament behavioral changes are needed. Yet, even these behavioral changes can only go so far without the corresponding collapse of status quo bau. The collapse of status quo bau would quickly lead to mass starvation and dislocation. A predicament cannot be solved and predicaments only have tradeoffs. We can continue with status quo bau to the bitter end destroying the world then collapse or we can drink the “KoolAid” of drastic changes now with a corresponding natural culling of the global human population through immediate status quo bau collapse. The renewables will save the world is a joke and a farce. AltE people quit feeding the world a line of crap and realize AltE sources are only a niche in the bottom up effort at a lifeboat for status quo bau transition to postindustrial man. Renewables will quickly degrade with lack of replacement parts and maintenance. The grid will destabilize and the huge AltE investments will be stranded. The variability of these huge AltE sources will never make more than a 20% penetration except in certain locations that have the ability to draw power from other sources to mitigate variability an example being the likes of tiny Denmark. A broke global world cannot afford a transition to a renewable world and all the infrastructure build out like the sources themselves then the grid upgrades. This AltE shit is Sci-Fi fantasy. If they would admit to impending collapse for multiple reasons and say we need AltE sources in local and end user locations to mitigate collapse then I would cheer them on. Instead the AltE folks are as bad as the fossil fuel lobby by blowing smoke up our asses that there is a warm and fuzzy future ahead if we just embrace renewables. Please AltE folks face reality and face collapse when you do this you then go to the next stages of death eventually ending up at acceptance.
sunweb on Thu, 17th Apr 2014 12:38 pm
Hopium strikes again. I challenge them at their website but I doubt they will respond. Too committed emotionally and financially.
Solar and wind capturing devices are not alternative energy sources. For the renewable devices – wind, photovoltaices, solar hot water, hot air panels – the sun and wind are there, are green, are sustained. The devices used to capture the sun and wind’s energy are an extension of the fossil fuel supply system. There is a massive infrastructure of mining, processing, manufacturing, fabricating, installation, transportation and the associated environmental assaults. There would be no sun or wind capturing devices with out this infrastructure. This infrastructure is not green, sustainable, or renewable.
I invite you to view these essays.
This essay has diagrams and pictures of how we get copper, aluminum, glass, black chrome – the chemicals, heavy machinery, and industrial processes that are necessary to make the devices to capture the energy of the sun and wind.
http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2011/12/machines-making-machines-making.html
and
http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2014/03/reality-again.html
and
http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2014/02/solar-investing.html
Kenz300 on Thu, 17th Apr 2014 1:22 pm
The cost of fossil fuels and nuclear keep rising and causing environmental damage……..
The cost of wind and solar keeps dropping………
Easy choice.
Meld on Thu, 17th Apr 2014 1:32 pm
Exactly Sunweb, “renewables” are fossil fuel tech to capture renewable energy. There have been many other technologies in different ages to capture these renewable energies, many of which will still work after the age of fossil fuels. Current renewables won’t
John D on Thu, 17th Apr 2014 3:42 pm
The fact that fossil fuel has remained at 82% of global energy use for the past 25 years is quite telling. It says that ‘renewables’ are not a means of replacing fossil fuel, they are a means of supplementing fossil fuel use so as to increase economic growth. Has any solar installation ever caused a drop of oil to remain in the ground? The only thing that will keep fossil fuels in the ground is their becoming prohibitively expensive, not by being replaced by ‘renewables’.
Harquebus on Thu, 17th Apr 2014 9:18 pm
Without fossil fuels there would be no solar or wind generators. Building renewable generators with renewable energy alone is a concept that has yet to be proved.
Kenz300 on Fri, 18th Apr 2014 12:22 am
We Could Power All 50 States With Wind, Solar and Hydro Washington’s Blog
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/03/solar-wind-mix-baseload.html
Bandits on Fri, 18th Apr 2014 12:42 am
Kenz, how is the shill business going, do you get paid by the post or something? I’ve got a toy here that I pull out a string, it makes the same noises as you.