Peak Oil: When Does Planning Begin?

[D]isputes over the precise timing of a global peak in conventional oil production are unhelpful. What is more relevant is the appropriate response to the risk of rising prices and supply constraints and the extent to which markets can be relied upon to mitigate those risks. Mitigation can be achieved through fuel substitution and demand reduction but both will prove challenging owing to the scale of investment required and the associated lead times. [1]

For oil industry officials and/or their media acolytes to pretend that all is well with our prospects for maintaining not just an adequate, but more importantly, an affordable and readily-accessible supply of the same quality fossil fuel supply (oil, specifically) is an understandable strategy—if maiming profits no matter what is the sole objective.

As a statement of respect for the public and social responsibility, it is wildly irresponsible. Then again, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to recognize the signs of respect and social responsibility accorded by those in positions of leadership (not just those in the fossil fuel industry). That’s a sad commentary on the manifestations of Business & Government As Usual, but that’s for another blog post….

Denying the realities of oil production challenges may work today, but as with most inappropriate strategies, it will soon enough outlive its usefulness. If the consequences were limited to just those in the industry and their spokespeople, most of us would offer a shrug of shoulders and a sympathetic word or two, and then move on.

If only….

While most may not give this any thought at all, just a moment or two of reflection about the world we live in, our own homes and businesses, our local communities, and the services we rely upon each and every day (likewise given very little thought—no blame for that) will make it quite clear that we owe almost every aspect of our daily existence to the energy derived from fossil fuels.

Another moment or two to consider that crude oil is a finite resource; that there’s a great big world out there with several billion people just getting started on their journey into a world filled with the amenities and technologies we’ve long enjoyed, and that rather extraordinary efforts are being undertaken to keep up supply should be more than enough to convince any reasonably intelligent person that there might be a reckoning someday. Most would understand that’s likely to be much sooner than later.

So what’s being done to prepare? Anyone?

Peak Oil Matters