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Orlov: Business as usual
Thinking about collapse is very useful because it allows you to prepare for it. And preparing for collapse is very useful too—from the pragmatic perspective of risk management. Consider the possibilities.
- If you prepare for collapse and it doesn’t happen, then you look a tiny bit foolish.
- If you don’t prepare for collapse and collapse does happen, then you look a tiny bit dead.
Now, which would you prefer to be, foolish or dead?
This type of reasoning is very basic, and is used for such things as calculating the amount of insurance to buy or the amount of cash to keep in reserve in order to avoid being bankrupted should the worst-case scenario unfold. In order to do that, you have to have some idea of what the worst case scenario is. People seem comfortable with this kind of reasoning.
There is, however, a problem: most people don’t seem to be able to wrap their minds around the concept of collapse in the sort of unsentimental, dispassionate way that is required for engaging in practical risk management activities. They can think of a nuclear accident, or a tsunami, or a hurricane, or an earthquake, or a pandemic. They might be able to think of all five at the same time, but that’s a stretch for most. But the scenario that few people can react to adequately is the sort of gritty reality that is quite probable. Let’s try a couple of scenarios, and see how you react.
Scenario #1. You live in a major city. Banks are closed and ATM machines are defunct. There is no electricity. Shops are closed and looted. Gas stations are burned out. There is no pumped water and toilets don’t flush. There is no heat or air conditioning. Garbage isn’t being collected and there are piles of it everywhere. Roads are impassable and neighborhoods are barricaded from each other with concertina wire and piles of burning tires and patrolled by armed gangs. Home invasions occur with gruesome regularity, especially in the wealthier neighborhoods where there is more to take. Police are nowhere to be found, but there are army checkpoints on all the major roads leading out of the city where people are turned back.
Scenario #2. You live out in the country. There is no electricity, no heating oil or propane deliveries. Gasoline is no longer available, and you can no longer drive 30 miles to the nearest supermarket or Walmart. In any case, these stores are no longer open for business because merchandise is no longer being delivered to them. You used to be on friendly terms with some of the neighbors, but now everybody is afraid of each other. In any case, it’s too far, and too dangerous, to walk anywhere. Your drinking water used to come from a deep drilled well via an electric pump, which no longer works. There also used to be a sump pump and a dehumidifier in your basement, which is now permanently flooded and filling with black mold. Armed gangs are filtering through the landscape, looking for caches of food and other supplies. They are increasingly expert at what they do, and most people either give up their stockpile voluntarily or die trying to defend it.
Presented with such scenarios, most people react in one of three ways: denial, paralysis or panic.
Denial is where you tell yourself that these scenarios are so incredibly unlikely where you live that thinking about them is a complete waste of time. You may be right about that, but who is to say? Subjective judgments of likelihood are not particularly useful in risk mitigation.
Paralysis is where your gut feeling tells you that this could, in fact, happen, but you can’t think of anything constructive that you could do about it—beyond trying to not think about it, to avoid distressing yourself to no purpose.
Panic is where you decide to act—by stockpiling food and weapons, or by developing plans to flee in some direction. Once you’ve done your shopping and planning, and the panic attack is over, you go back to paralysis (nothing more to be done) and then drift back toward denial (since it is mentally the most comfortable).
There is a fourth reaction worth considering, even though it amounts to an ad hominem attack on me as the messenger of doom. It goes like this: “Dmitry, your collapse scenarios are crap. They are depressing, distressing, and none of us can do anything about them except be depressed and distressed, or panic and go shopping for spam, shotgun shells and machetes. Would you please cut it out and stop bothering people with this collapse nonsense?” Sure, got me there, I’ll stop.
Let’s do something else instead: let’s consider that nothing will particularly change, and that things will stay on the same trajectory. Let’s define some scenarios that seem pretty likely to most of us, because it’s the sort of gradual change we’ve been seeing already: the economy will continue “recovering,” meaning that the rich will continue to get richer, the poor—poorer, unemployment will hold steady (as more and more people drop out of the labor force), debt levels will continue to explode, food and energy prices will continue to creep up and so on.
Security theater. We had the shoe bomber and the underwear bomber, so now the TSA makes us take off our shoes and gropes our genitals (or irradiates us with the naked body scanner). We had the wannabe jihadis who got entrapped into trying to smuggle a two-part liquid explosive on board (which, according to chemistry Ph.D.’s, wouldn’t have worked anyway) so we can’t bring liquids through the checkpoint (except for mother’s milk, but even that has to be tested for explosive potential). Next step: somebody tries to smuggle a bomb in their rectum, and the TSA forces everyone to strip naked and subjects them to a body cavity search, prison style. Even if you can still afford to fly somewhere, would you want to?
Note that this security theater insanity only applies to flights originating from or terminating in the US, and that it has nothing to do with stopping terrorists. You stop terrorists by spotting them, and you do that by interviewing just the promising candidates. Testing for exploding breast milk is just plain idiotic.
Debt slavery. In the past year, student loan debt has grown from 1 trillion to 1.2 trillion. More and more students are realizing that they will never be able to pay back their student loans. Instead, the government, which guaranteed the loans, will garnish their wages, and eventually even their social security payments (should these still exist by the time they reach retirement age) for the rest of their lives.
Borders locked. More and more of these students will realize that their only real option is to leave the country forever. Facing a massive outflow of college graduates, the government introduces exit visas, which require a credit check, and refuses to grant them to entire families, so that a hostage is always left behind. The government also refuses to renew passports for expats who are in arrears on their government-guaranteed debt, creating a refugee crisis. Just as this happens, more and more countries, increasingly fed up with US State Dept. meddling in their internal affairs, decide that they’ve had enough Americans for now, and close their borders to US nationals.
Retirement cancelled. The already dire demographics, coupled with the flight of educated people mentioned above, mean that there will only be a couple of working-age unskilled workers supporting each retiree. Desperate measures, such as rolling IRAs and 401k’s into the Social Security Trust Fund, postpone the inevitable somewhat. Eventually the government finds that it has no choice but to raise the retirement age to 100. The vast majority of the baby boomer generation, which did not save for retirement in any case, will find itself destitute.
Medical confiscation. Thanks to ObamaCare, people between 55 and 65 are being forced into the Medicare system. At the same time, Medicare covers fewer and fewer services, with higher and higher deductibles. Since most people lack sufficient cash savings to cover them, they are covered by placing liens on property. Adult children living with their parents (an increasingly common situation) are then forced to sell the house as soon as they inherit it (or walk away from it). The other, increasingly popular option, of course, is to forgo medical care.
Demise of the dollar. So far, because of the US dollar’s reserve status, the US has been able to fleece other countries while taking on debt at an artificially low rate of interest. As more and more countries (China and Russia especially) are moving away from using the dollar for international settlements, especially in buying and selling energy, the status of the dollar continues to erode. As this process runs its course, the US government will be forced to resort to fleecing its own people. Raising taxes is politically difficult, and so instead lots of other measures will be put in place. There will be lots of so-called “bail-ins,” where depositor funds are used to bail out insolvent banks. Those who own precious metals will be forced to sell them for a fraction of their market price, as has happened before. There will be a low limit on daily cash withdrawals, as has recently been the case in Argentina, Cyprus and Ukraine.
Corporatization. The trend is to concentrate more and more wealth and power in the hands of fewer and fewer corporate entities. To this end, the government will clamp down on small businesses (which are already suffering because of, among other things, onerous health care insurance regulations). Eventually the government will outlaw self-employment, herding all owner-operators and freelancers into minimum-wage corporate farms. It will be made illegal to buy and sell products or services except through a major corporation (good bye Craigslist). All property transactions will automatically be taxed: sales tax plus capital gains tax. The limit on gift taxes will be dropped to zero: the giver will pay the gift tax on the value; the receiver will have to pay income tax on all gifts received, plus capital gains if they are ever sold. Together with the low limit on cash withdrawals, this will make it virtually impossible for people to directly give each other money without being taxed, or breaking the law.
As the cost of living continues to go up and salaries continue to stagnate, corporations will negotiate special corporate discounts with each other in order to make it possible for their employees to continue functioning. People without a corporate job will find their access to products and services severely restricted. But what really makes it possible for more and more corporate employees to survive is the increasing use of food stamps (EBT cards). Now at 50 million, participation in the food stamps program will grow until it becomes virtually universal, while at the same time the nutritional value of the food it makes available will continue trending down, nurturing the trifecta of obesity, diabetes and heart disease.
Criminalization. With small businesses and private enterprise made illegal, most people will be forced to resort to illegal activities, under the watchful eye of the NSA. But since putting even more people in jail will be prohibitively expensive, a new, streamlined process of dispensing justice will be put into place: the NSA and the Justice Department will link computer systems, and verdicts of fraud and suspended sentences will be issued by a computer program, in absentia. In keeping with current practice, both the charge and the evidence will be kept secret. The newly minted felons will be dropped from voter rolls, their passports cancelled, their bank accounts confiscated, and their employment (if any) terminated. They will receive form letters informing them of their sentence but most of them will be unable to read it because functional illiteracy rates will go from the current 40% to 80-90%.
Paragon of democracy. The effect of dropping much of the population from voter rolls will paradoxically result in much higher voter participation. After a while the only people allowed to vote will be the politicians themselves, their families, government workers and contractors, corporate functionaries and, of course, the ever-richer 1%. Since those barred from voting will not be counted as voters, it will look like voter turn-out is much higher than ever before. Everyone will celebrate the health of American democracy.
Demise of public education. Public schools will become dumping grounds for mental and physical defectives—junior prisons, if you will, where students are endlessly frisked and strip-searched by heavily armed security personnel and train for life under lockdown. The more promising students will be shunted to highly profitable charter schools, many of them virtual, where students get sit in front of computers all day, training to take standardized tests, and a single unaccredited teacher oversees more than a hundred of them. Beyond studying for tests, the students will become increasingly resistant to remembering anything at all—why know things when you can Google for them?
What should our risk management strategy be in light of such probable, predictable, and rather un-apocalyptically boring developments?
Do nothing? Well, you might not die, at least not right away, but then will your life be worth living? Even if you can’t think of anything good to do, you might still consider doing something—like drinking a lot.
Prevent them? You’d have to start with some sort of grass roots political campaign to change the entire system. Suppose you are amazingly successful at it, and manage to change the entire system. And it only takes you 30 years. Oops! Too late.
So, what do you do?
I have an idea, and it’s really, really simple. What’s more, it’s quite cheap, and it totally works… for the time being.
Here it is:
Get the hell out of this country!
34 Comments on "Orlov: Business as usual"
Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 11:37 am
ORLOV SAID – If you prepare for collapse and it doesn’t happen, then you look a tiny bit foolish.
Look, preparations can be fun and feel good. I have been doing this since 2000. In the beginning for different reason then what I know now. I made a big effort in 2006 to prepare and the collapse was very close in 2008 so I had egg on my face. I committed to a preparation policy. It didn’t happen and it cost me money. It did give me experience though. Many of the actions were a rehearsal for what is coming. Currently I am in a two tier preparation lifestyle. One leg of this is the short term. I have several months of supplies of many kind. My feeling is the transition to a landing and reboot is the most dangerous time. You need to have some items. If you have nothing you will be overwhelmed with the scramble to find vital support items. There is no guarantee what you have will not be confiscated nor that will you run out. Yet, your mind will be clearer if you have the basics at hand when all this starts. The second leg of this effort is long term. I am involved in a permaculture grass fed cattle farm. Every month I invest in hardware and education in a post carbon world or reduced carbon world. The hardware, education, and money are present today for many of us. They may not be tomorrow. I suggest at least research a little these two legged policy I mention. I find it enjoyable and it is now a hobby. I have no 401K. I will not have much savings in the traditional sense but I may be able to feed myself when the SHTF. If not I gave it my best shot. I am a mild doomer. Don’t rush completely into preparation unless the situation presents itself. Some people can withdraw from society and join groups dedicated to off grid living most can’t. Most must continue to live in status quo BAU. Instead of that vacation to the Caribbean spend that money on some “collapse insurance” That’s what I call my two legged effort at preparations. If you choose to not accept your mission good luck enjoy your life now. Live life to its fullest now because it will never be so full of resources for the picking. If you are already a victim of the collapse sorry, I wish it were different. One consolation none of us will get out of here alive.
dsula on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 12:09 pm
It’s always funny to read how people think they can prepare to make it thru the “bottleneck” and come out on the other side to a brave new world.
How naïve.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 12:20 pm
Dsula, your naive in your claiming doomer naiveté. It is not about making it through that will not be in our hands. What is important is in the very beginning having a handle on a situation of quickly deteriorating life support. You remind me of a smoker who says “well we all die of something” Us doomers are not naïve it is the cornucopian or the “doomer bashers” who think there is no need to prepare either because there is no problem or there is no use. That sounds like hubris or stupidity not risk management. I wonder how cocky you will be after 3 days without food.
rollin on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 12:26 pm
Dsula has it right. Although the prepared have a higher chance of surviving the initial onslaught, that now puts them into the next category. The next category makes survivors a target since they actually have food, water and actual stuff that works. So unless you can get at least a small village to work together to survive and protect itself, survival will be a toss of the dice as armed predatory gangs and “authorities” raid the landscape.
Orlov did a good job on covering some scenarios here but seemed to skip the disease and medical end of things. As civilization collapses quickly or even tries to continue, medical services fail or diminish greatly and death walks the streets.
Davey on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 12:37 pm
Who died and made you knower of the future of collapse Rollin. I claim a range of outcomes you already have preconceived ideas generalized about something as big as the globe. I guess this is what is in store for you and dusla. My situation and many others are not cut and dry. This is a complex scenario that could play out in multiple ways. I disagree with both of you.
Dave Thompson on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 1:20 pm
The nuclear power stations will melt down within days of non-grid tied power.
R1verat on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 1:24 pm
Risk management is the gist of this article. Can one prep for every possible situation? Does preparing guarantee success? Of course not. But everyone should try to be as self-sufficient as possible, no matter where they live. One only has to live through a crisis (in my case Katrina in NOLA) to “get it”. To me, its just plain foolish to not do anything, saying it doesn’t matter anyway. Good luck with that attitude!
rollin on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 2:02 pm
Davey, it’s ok to be afraid. Just don’t let your fears limit your vision.
Davey on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 2:16 pm
Yeap afraid for the kids. I won’t be afraid until a gun barrel is pointed at my head or starvation causes my teeth to fall out. Remember Papillon? A doomer practices fear and rehearses death as part of his workout. But make no mistake in those last moments of life any man not scared is crazy or has dementia!
ghung on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 2:46 pm
For me, prepping isn’t “prepping”; it’s a lifestyle of giving self-reliance priority over utter dependence on top-down complex systems that are doomed to fail; reducing one’s exposure to things one can’t control.
Jeff on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 3:00 pm
You can’t prepare for a situation like this….just read the article above again…but the article is ripe with contradictions it stinks…..you have no government—-but then you are still obligated to bank loans…even though you have no banks! You have no government but then you have a military? You have no currency but then cash is important?! Oh and buy my book so I can feel important and make money!!!???? If the plane is going to crash isn’t it better to enjoy the first half thinking about your vacation rather than freaking out the whole trip?
Jeff on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 3:01 pm
Oh and what the F is up with that picture..?
GregT on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 3:37 pm
I love Orlov’s dry sense of humour, he certainly knows how to rile people up.
J-Gav on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 4:09 pm
Good approach, Ghung. I wish more people, including myself, were in a position to go that way more thortoghly, more quickly …
J-Gav on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 4:10 pm
Good approach, Ghung. I wish more people, including myself, were in a position to go that way more thoroughly, more quickly …
Arthur on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 4:20 pm
Get the hell out of this country!
Bet Orlov is staying.
J-Gav on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 4:21 pm
I took Orlov’s advice long ago – before he ever even posted an article anywhere. I left the U.S. and lived in 3 other countries, whilst scouting out a few more. Where I ended up, France, has had its advantages but at the end of the day, may not have been the wisest choice as the Unraveling approaches. I live in the city and have only a few contacts in the country, no network. Changing countries in itself guarantees no improvement unless the groundwork has been laid previously for integration into a lucid, progressive community.
chilphil1986 on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 4:24 pm
Personally, I would think that it’s instructive to look at history, specifically colonial history for tips on how to live without high density energy. Obviously, the world did not have 7 billion human inhabitants and slavery still existed regardless of that fact, so the analogy won’t extend very far socially or politically. Practically speaking, however, the method has been lived and written down. I think governments will become far more localized but will perform roughly the same order-keeping functions. Whether or not one is a have or a have-not will come down to land ownership. More disputes will be settled face to face purely for logistical reasons, but horseback transportation will probably make a huge comeback.
While I do think that
chilphil1986 on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 4:28 pm
Oops. Cut off. While we’re having fun with speculation, the big oh sh*t moment will come when one or all of the major integrated oil & gas companies goes bankrupt. The federal government will probably nationalize chevron and or exxon when they go and start taxing the stuffing out of anyone with a drivers license.
After that it’s anyone’s guess until the whole mess stabilizes.
Davey on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 4:34 pm
Guys, I know many agree with Orlov and his critique of the US. It would be far better of Orlov and others to clarify which part of America to leave. This is a huge country with allot of open spaces still unlike Europe. Naturally get out of the Northeast corridor, Florida, LA/San Diego belt of California , and any very large American city. Get out of those location that due to climate or location have energy intensive support systems I.E southwestern cities. Here in the ozarks of Missouri we are BAU poor but we have good suppor structures post collapse. Let’s face it there is nowhere to hide from adversity just some locations better than others. I recommend you research your local support system and ask yourself am I safe post collapse.
Trent on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 4:55 pm
Davey,
Have you ever seen the documentary on Hillbillies on PBS? You might enjoy it…Washington said if he only had a regiment of these people he would easily win the war….They are tough people—-my family is from the hills of Tn…..and while I don’t live there any more I miss the land…I think it is wherever you connect with the people and the land…And while I am a religious I am not saying you better get religion but you better get something because hell is coming soon.
J-Gav on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 4:55 pm
Correct Davey – it’s less a matter of what country you live in than HOW and WHERE you live in that country.
Stephen on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 5:21 pm
There is one advantage to San Diego though. It’s winter is far survivable without heat than say North Dakota or some of the cold mountain regions.
DC on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 5:47 pm
The idea of going ‘somewhere’ else in the event of a breakdown in amerika is an idea as old as the country itself. In fact, that is the very same tactic people use *now*. When the ‘economy’ gets bad in a particular area, what are most amerikans method of dealing with that? They put all their plastic trinkets and big-screen TVs in a U-haul, put their current matchstick and PVC hovel up for sale-and move to an area thats doing slightly less worse. Rinse-repeat. How viable does one think this is going to be once things really start to contract? Does anyone really think the Jewish-amerikan princesses of NYC are going to say, “lets all move to the wide open spaces of Montana?”, lol. Or more to the point-look at all the poor people in the appalachian regions and other ‘have-not’ areas. Did they all migrate? Well, those that could did-the rest, had no real choice but to stay put-so they did.
A similar example would be the maritimes in my country, also a perennially ‘poor’ region. Those that could, or wanted to, also left for greener pastures, but most just stayed put. In a collapse-like scenario, it will be no different. Except most people will have little choice or opportunity to migrate to North Americas ‘boundless open spaces’. Anyone thinking this represents reality, I suggest you scroll over N.A. using Google Earth. Its nowhere near as empty or boundless as some still believe. Or alternately, next time your on a $99 flight to disneyland, look down the whole way. You’ll be amazed how ‘full’ N.A. is, and how little does not bear extensive utilization by humans.
Arthur,Mr Orlov, for his part, does have better plan than 99% of us. And hes said what he intends to do. If things really go for pot-hell just weigh anchor and sail to…wherever he can. Suburban slob North America with their swarmy, barely literate 2.5 kids, the dog, the obese TV watching soccer mom? What are they going to do? Besides waste the fuel in their Mini-Van sitting@Wall mart waiting for the food trucks to arrive?
Arthur on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 5:56 pm
Naturally get out of the Northeast corridor, Florida, LA/San Diego belt of California , and any very large American city.
Translation: stay away from ‘diversity’, as gruesome examples like Yugoslavia, Iraq, Syria and now Ukraine have clearly illustrated. Always stay with your own kind if survival is important.
I’m going to stay in Holland, even if that’s the 2nd most densely populated country in the world (admittedly a negative), after Bangladesh. First of all I’m living in still mostly Dutch south-east, meaning little chance of ethnic violence, unlike the Rotterdam-Amsterdam area. Furthermore, the Dutch harbors are the largest in continental Europe (because of location in Rhine-Maas river delta), providing for much of the European hinterland, meaning we are the gate keepers of international trade, meaning we are going to starve last. On top of that: house and large garden are bought and paid for. And family and friends are nearby. And there is still natural gas for decades, at least for agriculture, although not enough for heating. But you can survive indoor during the Dutch ‘winter’ (with rare frost) without heating, under a blanket, if necessary. The Dutch government has stated that in case of a calamity the Netherlands can provide food for all citizens from Dutch soil.
http://www.foodlog.nl/artikel/dijksma-aan-kamer-nederland-kan-zichzelf-voeden/
Needless to say that the food palette will not be what we were used to: ‘here is your four potatoes, now be content with it’
I’m going to follow the demise of the world (if any) in my armchair, covered under a blanket, with my iPad. I’m already used to one meal a day in order to prevent looking like a walrus. 5 minutes intense workout like on a rowing machine is also useful for staying warm for an hour, but requires more food.
Trent on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 6:23 pm
No you have it backwards…you need to fatten up now on cheap calories…I am envious of some of these fat people I see…and say damn I bet they got at least 7 months or 12 of fat on them!!!!
Stilgar Wilcox on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 7:04 pm
“My situation and many others are not cut and dry. This is a complex scenario that could play out in multiple ways.”
I completely agree, Davey. A complex civilization has developed and the way down may be a simple collapse, but it could get very complex. TPTB and their billionaire friends we can be sure will come up with all sorts of alternative scenarios based on the justification of keeping some reduced BAU going (and their power and wealth status alive and well) by finding interesting ways to ‘USE’ the indigent surviving masses to their advantage.
Situations that entail in so many words slavery in return for a subsistence survival. People will do anything to survive, so why wouldn’t those in a position to take advantage of that not do so? Probably there will be mix of different situations taking place in different regions. For example in one area may be a sort of corporate slavery situation, with another area being based on barter of drugs/food/sex/water (alluded to in pic at top), and of course permaculture communes. Take your pick or test out all of them to see which one fits you best.
Joe Clarkson on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 7:31 pm
My wife and I are 65, so when collapse comes we may very well be already dead. If so, there will come a day when someone will stumble on our little farm with its fruit orchard, fertile gardens, fenced paddocks and house with a still-functional solar power system. Their first reaction will probably be, “This is sweet! I could live here”.
Preparation for one’s self and family is also preparation for future generations. None of us will live forever. Think of creating something valuable for those few who will come after us. And even if those few are the same people who take what we have created by force, at least they will have a chance to make good use of it. If there are even a few who survive thanks to what we do now, that’s motivation enough.
Beery on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 8:21 pm
“Home invasions occur with gruesome regularity, especially in the wealthier neighborhoods where there is more to take.”
I’ve been in a similar situation, and I can assure Mr. Orlov that when society breaks down, people don’t go out of their neighborhoods to commit crimes. Why? Because the risks outweigh the benefits. When civilization crumbles, the thieves steal from their neighbors, because they know their neighborhood.
Jimmy on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 8:37 pm
In the 80’s I was a ‘survivalist’. Now I’m a prepper I guess. My ‘survival kit’ used to be something I could carry in a duffle bag. Now I can hardly fit it into a double car garage that I have on 267 acres in the mountains of British Columbia. Trout in the stream and the lake, deer moose and elk everywhere, walnut trees, fruit trees, grape vines, timber etc…. It’d be all for naught if someone took it or killed me. Hence my extensive social connections, enough rifles for a large platoon, and enough ammo to beat down a Mexican cartel. Plus mountains favour the defender (I learnt that in Battle School)
Dsula might be right about some of ‘you’ but he’s dead wrong about me.
GregT on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 8:53 pm
Lots of places to get ‘lost’ in BC. I don’t foresee many trying to find them, there is simply too much ground to cover. Besides, there would be plenty to ‘do’ in the cities for quite a while.
penury on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 10:23 pm
There are a lot of places to get lost in. The problem that most people have is: If you or a member of your family needs medications, there is no where. if during your setting up for survival and become seriously injured, then what? Food is a problem for most people, the majority of under thirties thing food comes from the Safeway. The art of survival is hard, long and fraught with perils that no one thinks of: if you want a primer see if the Army has any old manuals for survival which might separate the inedible plants from the edible for you. If you plan on growing your own food. Good Luck, remember GMOs are not fit for seed saving.
Makati1 on Wed, 9th Apr 2014 1:10 am
Some touched on two big killers:
The 400+ nuclear power plants that will go critical in days when the collapse happens and the electric goes off. Imagine 400+ Fukushimas (100 in the US alone) where no one is even trying to keep them under control. Slow death for anyone near or down wind.
Diseases that will finally be unmanageable because the meds are all gone and none are ever going to be available again. All the obese become diabetic. Malaria moves north due to the warmer climate. Not to mention the many tens of millions using drugs to keep their sanity. Rats and flies will be a plague with the dead bodies laying everywhere. No, they will not be buried. Take NYC and the fact that in the first month, many if not most of the millions of inhabitants will die for one reason or another.
If the SHTF today, you would be stuck where you are. Is that where you want to be? Better think about it and make your choices today. We do not know what tomorrow may bring.
GregT on Wed, 9th Apr 2014 3:54 am
penury,
The same problems will present themselves in the cities, as will occur in rural areas. The biggest difference? More hungry people, with less available land to grow food, in the cities. Food and water are the basic necessities for survival. In a collapse scenario, the 1500 mile diet comes to an end, and most water infrastructure would become unreliable, or unfit for human consumption in a relatively short period of time. No sanitation or garbage pickup, would lead to major health concerns as well. Oh, and did I mention rats? Their numbers all already on the rise in many largely populated areas.
Human beings have grown their own food since the beginning of time, and hundreds of millions still do so today. Nothing new here. The time to relearn how to do so is now, while there are still markets to fall back on. Learn how to fish and hunt. If you are not in a location to do the aforementioned, it would be wise to give some serious thought into making a move now.
Like Makati said above; “If the SHTF today, you would be stuck where you are. Is that where you want to be?”