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Page added on April 7, 2014
US Oil Imports Seen Falling to Zero by 2037
Net oil imports to the U.S. could fall to zero by 2037 because of robust production in areas including North Dakota’s Bakken field and Texas’s Eagle Ford formation, according to a government projection released today.
The Energy Information Administration, the branch of the Energy Department that collects and analyzes energy data, said the once-chimerical goal of U.S. energy independence could be within reach in 23 years under a “high-production” estimate contained in an update of its periodic energy forecast.
“This is the first time that a case in the Annual Energy Outlook has projected that imports’ share of liquid fuels consumption could reach zero,” said John Krohn, a spokesman for the EIA.
The high-production estimate is the EIA’s most optimistic assessment, one in which production increases to 13 million barrels a day over the next two decades, based on more favorable assumptions relating to technological improvements and the productivity
Production levels never exceed 10 million barrels a day under a reference case, which assumes no dramatic changes to drilling activity.
Already net oil imports have fallen to about 5 million barrels a day from a peak of almost 13 million barrels in 2006, thanks in large measure to advances in techniques such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling in shale rock, which are also known as “tight oil” formations.
Hydraulic Fracturing
In hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” drillers shoot a mixture of water, sand and chemicals underground under high pressure to break apart rock to let trapped the oil and gas flow to the surface. Production from tight oil formations has increased from less than 1 million barrels a day in 2010 to 3 million barrels a day in 2013, according to the EIA.
The EIA also included a low-resource estimate where production rises to 9.1 million barrels a day in 2017 before falling to 6.6 million barrels a day in 2040.
In the EIA reference case, the net import share of petroleum and other liquids consumed in the U.S. falls to 25 percent in 2016 and then rises to 32 percent in 2040.
36 Comments on "US Oil Imports Seen Falling to Zero by 2037"
Plantagenet on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 6:35 pm
The Obama administration has gone utterly nuts on this one.
Its far more likely that oil production in the Bakken and Eagle Ford will be be below current levels by 2037, rather than continuing to rise from current levels..
steveo on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 6:47 pm
I don’t know what these guys are smoking, but I want some.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 6:56 pm
“US Oil Imports Seen Falling to Zero by 2037.”
Much sooner than that is my guess.
Pops on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 6:57 pm
In 2005 the EIA predicted $25/bbl oil and 25Mbopd consumption about now, and that was before their funding was cut for these types of reports. LOL
http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo05/
ronpatterson on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 6:58 pm
Plantagenet, the Obama administration had absolutely nothing to do with this prediction. It came from the EIA who’s officials are not elected nor are they appointed. Only the Secretary of Energy is a political appointment.
Dr. Ernest Moniz, the Secretary of Energy is a scientists and as about as non-political as they come. I doubt that he has any input on what the lifers that work for him put out.
I find it astonishing that some people would blame the silly predictions of the EIA on Obama.
However the EIA put out three scenarios for future oil production. Only one, their high one, predicts we hit zero imports by 2017.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 7:10 pm
“I find it astonishing that some people would blame the silly predictions of the EIA on Obama.”
When things start going bad, human nature is to find a scapegoat — someone to blame “it” on.
For hundreds of thousands if not millions of Americans, it is fashionable to blame Obama for just about everything. But don’t worry, once Obama is not around to blame any longer, there are plenty of others to blame and scapegoat.
Arthur on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 7:17 pm
If this is going to turn out to be the truth, most of us by that time would not care to be remembered to that short episode, back in 2012-2014, when a bunch of wannabee Nostradamusses were majestically missing the mark.
HARM on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 7:33 pm
“Plantagenet, the Obama administration had absolutely nothing to do with this prediction. It came from the EIA who’s officials are not elected nor are they appointed…. I find it astonishing that some people would blame the silly predictions of the EIA on Obama.”
American conservatives flat out despise Obama and scapegoat him for all sorts of imaginary crimes that have no basis in reality.
HARM on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 7:40 pm
I have had many *interesting* conversations with Tea Party Republican types where the dialog starts out with us both agreeing he is not a good President.
I start off by enumerating all the REAL issues I have with things Obama has or hasn’t done: lack of prosecution of Wall Street criminals, unwillingness to re-regulate financial sector, lip service to inequality with little or no action on tax policy, failing to pass Medicare-for-all while the Dems had a filibuster-proof supermajority, allowing the police state/NSA surveillance to grow like a cancer, etc.
At that point I usually get a blank stare from the Teapublican who hates Obama for all the imaginary transgressions they always hear on Fox/AM radio –being a Communist, being from Kenya/Indonesia, being a secret Muslim who eats Christian babies, hating white people, confiscating guns/Bibles, etc.
We truly live in separate worlds, where everyone is entitled to their own facts, not just opinions.
shortonoil on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 7:48 pm
“If this is going to turn out to be the truth, most of us by that time would not care to be remembered to that short episode, back in 2012-2014, when a bunch of wannabee Nostradamusses were majestically missing the mark.”
Nostradamus; is that what you call a bunch of engineers, mathematicians, and techs? Tell you what Arthur, go to our site, send us an email under comments, and we’ll send you a full copy of our 57 page report for FREE. We’ll even pay the postage! It tells you everything you will ever want to know about petroleum production. Where it’s been, and where it is going.
O Yea, if you don’t I’ll mention it every time I see you post here.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org
.
Plantagenet on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 7:57 pm
People who don’t think the Obama administration plays any role in the policies and viewpoints of the Obama administration are naive. Every policy and report from every branch of the Obama administration has to be internally reviewed and approved prior to publication. The EIA is no different in this from the BLS or the EPA or the IRS.
There is long history of estimates of oil reserves made by the USGS and the EIA and other government agencies going up and down depending on which administration controls the DOI or DOE at the that time. This is just the most recent example. Face facts—the Obama administration is putting out BS about ever-growing future US oil production—back here in the real world there is virtually no chance that these EIA estimates are realistic.
HARM on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 8:03 pm
@Plantagenet: Like I said in my second post (above), I am NOT an Obama fanboy or apologist. However, I part ways from American conservatives in precisely *why* I dislike him and his Administration. (Hint: my reasons are not imaginary.)
Re: the EIA report, assuming the Obama Administration *is* trying to bias the report in favor of BAU, they would be no different than any of the previous Republican or Democratic administrations. Both parties serve the .1% and want to keep BAU going for as long as possible and keep the public asleep.
Plantagenet on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 8:11 pm
@HARM
I’m not assuming anything. I’m simply pointing out the fact that this report from the Obama administration projecting ever-higher US oil production is incredibly wrong-headed. And yes, the DOE is part of the Obama administration.
Arthur on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 8:55 pm
Nostradamus; is that what you call a bunch of engineers, mathematicians, and techs?
Relax. I said that IF the 2037-story would turn out to be true.
I don’t believe that to be the case, otherwise I would not be here for more than two years already.
Jimmy on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 9:23 pm
It’ll be much sooner than that!
I foresee USA being unable to afford imported oil by 2025ish.
The USA will be self sufficient, but they won’t like it.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 9:39 pm
“I’m simply pointing out the fact that this report from the Obama administration projecting ever-higher US oil production is incredibly wrong-headed.”
Plantagenet, it isn’t just the Obama admin pumping out the false information when it comes to the economy and the dire energy shortages we are coming up on. The entire “TPTB” establishment is pumping out the misinformation, lies and propaganda non-stop, 24/7/365. Since the presidency and congress, senate and supreme court are all owned and operated by TPTB, it should be no surprise that the Obama admin is part of the disinformation campaign.
That disinformation, sinister though it may seem to so many people, is actually the only thing that is preventing panic and chaos from spreading like wildfire and bringing BAU to its knees. IF Obama or other high-level officials were to take the public podium and start telling the truth and nothing but the truth it would sound something like this: “My fellow citizens, you are totally and irrevocably screwed. Your life as you have known it will soon end, and you will descend into a hellhole from which there is no escape. God Bless America.”
The “herd” must be controlled, pacified, lied to as needed and manipulated for their own good. That’s how TPTB see it, and there is plenty of evidence to support that point of view.
rockman on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 9:55 pm
As I’ve pointed out before no one can project the future of any trend (EFS, Bakken, etc.) without mapping the geologic conditions that would favor such production. I haven’t seen any predictor offer such a map. And there’s the obvious financial side: at what price oil and what capex availability.
But forget all that and just stop to think: why the hell would anyone be happy if we stopped importing oil? Really…seriously. Think about it for a minute. US oil production has increased significantly along with some lower consumption. Are you happy…proud? Really: you’re happy that the US consumers have gone from transferring about $250 billion per year to about $650 billion per year to all the oil producers…domestic and foreign? You must be happy that it’s costing you 2 to 3 times what it did to fill up your gas tank…right? Oh…I know what you’re happy about: in a world with depleting oil reserves the US is using more of its domestic resources that those of foreign countries. Those countries are just going to be stuck with all that excess oil, right. Hmm…just remembered the world is currently consuming more oil than ever before in history. Guess those exporters aren’t choking on all that “excess” production. LOL.
Yeah…greatly reduced our trade imbalance and that’s at least one silver lining, right? I ought to slap you upside you’re freaking head if you agreed. LOL. We ship more $’s overseas for oil imports today than we did when we were bringing a lot more oil into the country. It’s not difficult to understand: we’re importing less but paying 300% more for what we do import. And don’t give me the theoretical BS about how much the trade deficit would be if we didn’t increase domestic production: we increased domestic production as a direct result of higher oil prices.
Easy numbers to understand when you see them all in one place. In 2003 we were paying $168 million/day for domestic oil production and $260 million/day for oil imports. With the increase in domestic production we are today paying $700 million/day for domestic production and $750 million/day for imports. Personally I couldn’t be happier since I sell oil for a living. How about everyone else: happier now or in 2003 when we were importing so much more of our oil consumption…and spending about $400 billion per year less the oil? Well, at least you can still have the bragging rights over increasing domestic production and decreasing the VOLUME of imported oil. LOL.
So rejoice in the EIA projection while you calculate how many $trillion the US consumers will be transferring to oil producers as we bear down on “energy independence”.
Stilgar Wilcox on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 9:56 pm
It’s so easy to take a graph and extrapolate the future based on current trends, but to do so in this case all the way to the year 2037 claiming the US will apparently be self-sufficient for oil is truly a remarkable leap of fantasy.
That would be the red queen syndrome on a super massive scale of constantly drilling 10’s of thousands of wells, with who knows how many billions of gallons of water to frack them. Just laughable.
ronpatterson on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 10:05 pm
Plantagenet wrote:
“People who don’t think the Obama administration plays any role in the policies and viewpoints of the Obama administration are naive.”
Good God! Of course the Obama administration plays a role in the political viewpoints of the administration. That is self evident. But no one is talking about political viewpoints of the Obama administration here. How much oil the US might or might not produce in the future is not a political viewpoint, it is a wild ass guess by low level bureaucrats at the EIA who have been doing that same job for many years under every administration.
Where you, Plantagenet, are extremely naive is believing that they White house reviews every paper that comes out of every government department in Washington. There are many thousands of them every day.
But I guess Obama must check each and every one of them personally. Yeah right.
Davey on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 10:38 pm
“O” is a political animal. If the sheoples need to be kept calm what do you think “O” will do…right! At least Obama is a smart guy. Honesty is another story but honest politicians died long ago nor do I think there as been more than a handful in modern history.
Beery on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 11:12 pm
“Honest politician” is, and always has been, an oxymoron. Anyone who believes there was a time where honest politicians could be found anywhere is likely to be taken in by the next politician who claims to be bringing honesty back into politics.
Plantagenet on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 11:12 pm
@ Northwest Resident
IMHO, your suggestion that the BO administration is consciously engaged in a conspiracy to hide the facts about oil depletion because people will panic if the true facts are known seems a bit too far out.
You may be right but I doubt a vast conspiracy lies behind this overly optimistic EIA report. I think the EIA authors and the BO people who run the DOE honestly believe what they are saying.
Plantagenet on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 11:35 pm
@ RonPatterson
Your suggestion that Obama personally reads every report that his administration produces is unlikely to be true. Obama is far too busy with his presidential workload, not to the mention the heavy load of golfing and fundraising, and the hour each day he devotes to watching ESPN sports. This EIA report was released by the DOE—Obama’s political appointees who run the DOE are the ones who reviewed the report and then approved the release of this report for publication by the government. I suggest you go read a government report— you’ll find that they typically contain a page at the front noting the approval for publication by the director of whatever agency is releasing it.
Dave Thompson on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 11:42 pm
This article is just the type low information people want to hear. My understanding is that these wells producing in these plays deplete very fast in the first year or so at 40-60%. I am not investing my money in US energy independence.
Boat on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 12:05 am
I like to be one of those cornucopians with a rainbow up my butt who can see a battery breakthrough and a 25% electric car market. Semis that get 12 mph instead of 5.5 by 2020. Another couple of breakthroughs in solar and wind that exponentially take over the electric market and is so cheap refinery costs are cut in 1/2. etc etc etc I could go on and on. I could pick 2030 and be much more optimistic than the chart.
Then again I can doom as well as the rest. Global war could start tomorrow and no tanker or any type of trade could exist on the oceans because of the high fatality rate of ships. Billions die as the result without a single nuclear bomb used.
Either one of these make believe scenarios could happen or a version of them which would drastically affect any chart or projection.
Makati1 on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 12:27 am
2037. 23 years into the unknown future.
The headline could and probably will be correct. After all, by then we will have regressed to a 3rd world country with much lower oil and NG needs. Does any of you actually believe that they can keep the economy alive that long? It is already on intensive care and failing daily.
No, I think we will stop importing long before 2037.
GregT on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 2:42 am
Meanwhile, back on planet Earth.
Our scientists are shouting louder than ever, that we cannot continue to burn fossil fuels. Is anyone actually listening? Nope, it certainly does not appear so……..
Nothing to see hear everyone, move along. Now back to your regularly scheduled programs.
Northwest Resident on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 3:25 am
Plantagenet — Obama or any president these days is just a cog in the machine. One of the bigger cogs, but a cog nonetheless. Consensus within the true power centers is what really runs the show — the true power centers being military, intelligence, financial and energy. Obama can’t get anything done on any issues unless he has that consensus behind him, or at least is given a green light by the power circles. I wouldn’t think of it as a conspiracy to keep the general population calm and unaware of the approaching hard times. It is more of a policy and a general understanding in politics that you never make public statements that might cause mass hysteria. If the general population knew the truth about our fragile energy supply, hysteria and civil disorder would surely result. Better to just keep them calm. Not a conspiracy, just sound policy.
Question: When the U.S. Military is fully aware of our approaching energy crisis and has been for quite a while, how is it that you think the top level politicians — especially the president — are ignorant of that impending danger? They KNOW, Plantagent, they KNOW.
Meld on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 6:08 am
US oil imports will be zero bu 2037, but not for the reasons they think it will
simonr on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 8:55 am
Lines of Responsibility and Authority run in opposite directions
If Obama has authority over the EIA. He by extension has responsibility for the output.
Kevin Cobley on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 9:29 am
It’s pretty clear that if the US is going to be self sufficient in Oil in 2037 consumption is only going to be a couple of millions of barrels per day, instead of todays 18.6.
dashster on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 10:32 am
I looked at their projections a few weeks ago and what I found was a graph showing tight oil peaking in 2019??
Arthur on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 12:31 pm
I looked at their projections a few weeks ago and what I found was a graph showing tight oil peaking in 2019??
Give us your preferred conclusion and we’ll provide the corresponding arguments, for a small fee.
shortonoil on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 1:05 pm
“Question: When the U.S. Military is fully aware of our approaching energy crisis and has been for quite a while, how is it that you think the top level politicians — especially the president — are ignorant of that impending danger? They KNOW, Plantagent, they KNOW.”
The US government employs many millions of people. The vast majority of them are just common, clueless joe’s like anyone else that you meet on the street. The real heart of the knowledge that runs Washington doesn’t come from them. It comes from the hundreds of independent contractors that surround DC in Virginia, and Maryland. They are called “Belt Line Bandits” and make up the technological elite of the country. They are responsible for the operations of everything. They keep the geosynchronous satellite system running, they keep the world information flow functioning. They watch virtually everything, and they are secretive beyond belief. Some of these people I’ve known for more than ten years before I even found out who they worked for. And yes, NR, they know!!!
Davey on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 1:16 pm
We’ll put short!
louis wu on Tue, 8th Apr 2014 3:36 pm
It is quite possible for US imports to fall to zero by 2037.It is more likely to be due to the dollar no longer being the world reserve currency and the US and everyone else being to broke to do much of anything but that would still satisfy this prediction.