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Page added on March 25, 2014
Revisiting the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2013
I was going over the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2013 and noticed a few things you might find interesting. Exactly what is their opinion on Peak Oil? Here, cut and pasted from the report.
Got that? The URR is great enough to delay any peak until after 2035. Here is one of their graphs that indicate how much they think is left, coal, gas and oil.
Okay 54 years of proven reserves. That puts the peak out to well past mid century. Likely well past 2100 if you count those remaining recoverable resources. And just who has all this oil?
2.2 trillion barrels of conventional crude oil resources. However only 1.7 trillion barrels of that has a 90% probability of being recoverable. Of this the Middle East has the lions share, 971 billion barrels of resources with a 90% probability of recovering 813 billion barrels of that.
The Middle East, of course, mostly OPEC. And if you count the four OPEC countries of Africa and the two in South America, the vast majority of the world’s oil reserves are in OPEC nations. In fact OPEC claims 81% of all the proven reserves in the world.
So with 81% of the world’s proven reserves what is the IEA expecting from OPEC in the future?
A word of explanation is needed here. New Policies Scenario: A scenario in the World Energy Outlook that takes account of broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, even if the measures to implement these commitments have yet to be identified or announced.
450 Scenario: A scenario presented in the World Energy Outlook that sets out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2°C by limiting concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million of CO2.
Current Policies is business as usual. Or, basically, we will keep on doing what we are doing. Which is of course exactly what will happen. However what the IEA sees as happening, above, is not exactly what will happen, far from it.
So, looking at Conventional Crude Oil Production in 2012, 2020 and 2035 we find this. All data on all charts below are in million barrels per day:
Well hell, OPEC production will be lower in 2020 than it is today. And non OPEC production will be lower in 2035 than it is today. But not to worry, total conventional crude production will be up 2.9 percent in the 23 years between 2012 and 2035.
But they are expecting Natural Gas Liquids to increase by almost 57 percent.
And let us not forget about Unconventionals. What are Unconventionals?
Unconventionals, Light Tight Oil and Oil Sands increase from 5 mb/d to 10.6 mb/d in 2020 to 17.1 mb/d in 2035. That is an increase of 242 percent in 23 years.
3 Comments on "Revisiting the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2013"
Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 25th Mar 2014 12:09 pm
Folks, I am not the expert discussion board geologist and we have very smart guys here so I will let you guys cover the geology of this article. I will say this the economy is not healthy and will not be able to produce the kind of supply their projections are projecting. If you see their projections it becomes plain as day seeing the decline of conventional sources and the rise of expensive alternatives. Our society is suffering diminishing returns in the situation of limits of growth. We are stuck in a predicament of resource production stagnation. Our climate is destabilizing and our vital direct human resources of water and food is under stress form a population in overshoot to carrying capacity. Our globalized system will not grow more with these conditions. All future growth is parasitic and in effect cannibalization through wealth transfer. Our financial system is a debt Ponzi scheme that has inflated our markets into a bubble. The only thing holding this show together near term is financial repression through central bank intervention, market manipulation, corruption, and legal disregard. The cost of money is set to rise either through deflation and or inflation. Interest rates have nowhere to go but up. Majors and Nationals are already facing diminishing returns on their production efforts add to that soon to be high cost of money. The writing is plain to see and all that is happening now is a lobby effort by cornucopians and technological exceptionalist. The health of this complex interconnected global system is not up to the task. Multiple problems are going to and currently present themselves and this system will not be able to solve them. The convergence of so many mutually inclusive problems will overwhelm the system and force a break to a lower standard of living or worse. Once this drop occurs it is game over for growing oil supply and all other resources extractions. It is possible financial repression and its resulting cannibalization of the global social fabric can continue for some more years but then the energy brick wall will hit within 9years and finish the job. I may be wrong on the energy brick wall but I know enough to know these energy cornucopians are pushing the limits of reality. Please guys prove me wrong!!!
GregT on Tue, 25th Mar 2014 5:27 pm
“Please guys prove me wrong!!!”
The silence is deafening………………….
Arthur on Tue, 25th Mar 2014 8:08 pm
Where is SOS when you need him.