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Page added on March 25, 2014
Global polyethylene trade flows
Platts petrochemical analysis team have joined forces with our design & production department to produce what we think is a beautifully crafted infographic on global trade flows for polyethylene. It also details surplus and deficit totals and includes key trend points, statistics and forecasts going out all the way to 2023. Remember: we’d love to read your thoughts on the impact of shale on both petrochemical and oil markets, so join in on the comments section below.
Polyethylene analysis
- If China’s development of Coal-to-Olefins technology continues as planned for the next five years, the global polyethylene market is likely to be saturated with material through 2019, according to a new analysis by Platts.
- New plants are expected to add more than 10 million metric tons of ethylene to the Chinese market.
- According to the latest edition of Platts Shale to Polyethylene report, the amount of ethylene produced from coal-to-olefins in China is expected to match the amount of ethylene produced from new steam cracker projects in North America, tied to shale gas developments.
- China is also adding more than 14 million metric tons of additional polyethylene capacity between 2014 and 2021, much of which is being feed by the CTO-produced ethylene.
- The largest capacity gains in the Americas are expected in 2017 and 2020, when new shale-based production comes on-stream. And each of those two years will only see increases of about two-million metric tons. In 2015 and 2016 alone, Asian PE capacity could climb more than 7 million metric tons.
- This influx of Asian material is expected to increase global polyethylene surpluses by more than 50% between 2013 and 2015. Global surpluses of the plastic would climb above 7 million metric tons between 2016 and 2018. During that period, Asian polyethylene deficits could almost disappear, leaving polyethylene producers scrambling to sell excess material before they are forced to cut production rates.
- Based on the Platts analysis, global polyethylene run rates would need to be cut by 7% to balance the markets globally during the period of peak surplus.
- Middle Eastern producers, who globally have the most price-advantaged feedstock for ethylene production, would likely compete with Asian producers in South Korea, Singapore and Thailand during these periods of global polyethylene oversupply.
- This period of global oversupply also coincides with the largest potential polyethylene surpluses in North America, according to the Platts analysis. From 2018 to 2020, North America is expected to be long 4 million metric tons of material or more.
- The first outlet for that excess is going to be Latin America, and for the most part, Latin America will be happy to have it. North American polyethylene producers will need to find buyers in Europe and Asia to keep the market balanced, because Central and South America will not be able to absorb all of the surpluses.
- By 2020, though, the global markets are expected to be more balanced as demand growth continues. And if no new projects are announced, there would be a global polyethylene deficit by 2022.
8 Comments on "Global polyethylene trade flows"
Makati1 on Tue, 25th Mar 2014 2:01 am
More dreams of the financial/resource handicapped.
As if poly is a necessity. I remember the days before plastics very well. Somehow the world evolved and people managed with just paper and glass. I suppose we will again. although it will be a shock to the younger generations when they get their fish or meat wrapped in butcher’s paper and liquids in glass bottles. That is, IF there is meat and fish for sale then. I suspect many things will disappear and maybe by 2020.
GregT on Tue, 25th Mar 2014 4:03 am
The Earth needs more plastic human waste, like human beings need cancer.
Jimmy on Tue, 25th Mar 2014 4:47 am
Try running modern healthcare without plastic
GregT on Tue, 25th Mar 2014 6:14 am
Try running modern healthcare without oil, or a growing economy. Our healthcare systems are already in decline.
DC on Tue, 25th Mar 2014 7:55 am
Polyethylene-one of the more, if not one of the most persistent toxins we have in our arsenal of planet wrecking ‘technologies’. Buy yeah platts, chart is very pretty. The plastic gyres forming in the worlds oceans, not so much.
Plastics are a huge part of the reason so many people are sick and our bodies full of plastic related toxins in the first place. A post plastic health care system, will be a much HEALTHIER system than what we have right now.Been to a modern hospital lately? I was astounded by the sheer volume of single-use throw away trash even a single one generates-every single day. Even the goddamn ‘food’ the staff eats come in plastic dishes and with plastic utensils-good grief.That is, if the lingering effects of plastic compounds that will be around for 10s, if not 100s of thousands of years can be mitigated against by future health care systems.Or if there even will be a humans around to run any kind of health care. All open questions…
Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 25th Mar 2014 10:09 am
DC, we often don’t agree but I find we are on the same page in this discussion. Your description of plastic hit the nail squarely on the head. We can point to the widespread use of plastic and chemicals post WWII as a turning point for toxicity illnesses. We also witnessed the explosion of waste through unneeded packaging. I am astounded anew daily at the amount of trash that is thrown away by myself. I even make a big attempt to limit what I pitch. I try to efficiently eat everything I buy at the grocery store. I usually go once on my way to farm remaining on the farm without leaving for 10 days at a time. Every friggen item I eat seems to generate plastic! I have wondered in a postindustrial society when landfills are mined what will be the uses of plastic. Our food system will have to greatly change when the age of plastic draws to a close. We will have to preserve food in the old ways with canning and curing. Reusable wood and cloth for carrying the food. Much Food will be local by necessity because of the ills of spoilage
As a ex-1%er I get to ride coat tails of my 1%er family. I go to the Bahama’s every Christmas for a few weeks. This island we go to is a paradise. Very few westerners because there is little development except for a few small resorts. This large Island has maybe 1000 natives because it can’t support more. The extra population goes off to Nassau. The beaches are heavenly and the water among the prettiest I have seen in my world travels. Many without any homes for as far as the eye can see. On the Atlantic side the beaches are covered in ocean waste. It is amazing the stuff that washes up. A significant amount is from the fishing industry, then there is food related items, lots of glass too. The worst is the plastic. This stuff is from Europe and Africa but most of it from the Caribbean. It is amazing to me these beaches are like Columbus experienced but with modern man’s foot print.
GregT on Tue, 25th Mar 2014 4:40 pm
Ya Davy,
The same on the west coast of BC. As kids, we spent many a summer day beach-combing, seashells, sand dollars, tidal pools, and even the occasional Japanese glass fishing float. Last summer, my wife and I went back to one of the beaches of my childhood. No shells, no sand dollars, sick and dying tidal pools, and no more glass floats. The beaches are littered with driftwood from deforestation, plastic ropes, bottles, lids, toys, bic lighters, bags, etc.. Much of the plastic has broken down into little chunks, no longer recognizable as to what it was originally a part of.
We have certainly made a mess of nature, and I suspect that all of this garbage will endure, for a very long time after our species is gone.
steveo on Tue, 25th Mar 2014 6:30 pm
Davy, GregT,
I’ve seen a similar condition on the North Carolina coast, sans the Japanese fishing floats. Lots of poly rope, plastic trash and cigarette filters concentrated at the high tide line. Less fish and wading birds.