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Page added on March 18, 2014
Natural gas to outpace all energy sources until 2035
Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing energy source until 2035 as the global energy consumption is likely to grow by an average 1.9 per cent per year, according to a report.
“Between 2012 and 2035, natural gas demand is expected to grow by an average 1.9 per cent per year, outpacing all other energy sources. This is likely to lead to higher natural gas prices, including for LNG. Qatar is the world’s largest exporter of LNG,” the new BP Energy Outlook 2035 report said.
The report estimates that global energy consumption will grow by 41 per cent from 2012 to 2035.
It forecast that over 95 per cent of this demand growth is projected to come from emerging markets, including China and India, with the share of total of these countries accounting for about a quarter by 2035.
Meanwhile, energy use in the members of the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) grouping, all advanced economies, is likely to grow slowly and begin to decline in the later years of the forecast period.
The transition from industrial to service economies, increased global integration, the tradability of fuels across border and continued technological improvement, as well as the removal of fuel subsidies and policies geared toward fuel efficiency, all suggest that energy intensity will continue to decline, it said.
Non-OECD countries, led by China and India, are expected to generate 78 per cent of natural gas demand growth with industry and power generation accounting for the largest increments.
While fossil fuels will continue to remain dominant, oil, gas and coal are likely to converge on market shares of about 26-27 per cent each by 2035, and non-fossil fuels – nuclear, hydroelectricity and renewable – on a share of around 5-7 per cent each.
Natural gas is growing fastest as it is increasingly being used as a cleaner alternative to coal for power generation as well as in other sectors.
8 Comments on "Natural gas to outpace all energy sources until 2035"
Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 1:02 pm
I beg to differ with this prediction. If one looks at the capex needed to fund this build out of natural gas capacity it is daunting. Natural gas is very different from oil in its nature of transport and usage. It is extremely expensive to transport and build new end use infrastructure. LNG suffers high conversion loss. With oil in decline during this time frame I doubt the economy can sustain that kind of investment with all the other huge problems that will present themselves to a society in overshoot. In a different world sure it would be possible. The author is also pointing to an AltE build out when he mentions the makeup of energy sources in 2037 of around 20%. In a different world that could be possible also but in the current Ponzi scheme debt driven economy I do not see the solid foundation for the necessary capital to make that build out. One must consider the useful life currently of the AltE infrastructure. This equates to a 40% build out because of the replacement cost of the current AltE in 20 years. It would take 20 years for sure but with a healthy economy and a population not in overshoot at the limits of growth. It just does not add up and it is another example of the “lobby of plenty and human exceptionalism” claims that we have the abilities and resources to grow.
Papasmurf on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 1:16 pm
Davy, you lack the credentials to be taken seriously, write your own report, back it up with more than just your opinions, then submit it to be published and see if anyone gives a fuck.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 1:32 pm
PoopSmurf, from you that is a compliment that you even respond. Your opinion means little to me!
rockman on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 3:04 pm
I don’t fault BP or anyone else trying to make such predictions. Who I do fault are folks who believe such predictions (optimistic or pessimistic) have any reliable chance of being correct. It is an impossible task IMHO despite how critical it is for planning for the future. All one has to do is look at the volatility of NG prices, production and drilling activity along with economic activity in all the markets over the last 20 years to realize that while one is free to make assumptions about future conditions there’s no way to qualify the probability of those assumptions being correct. All one can assume is that any nice even linear increase/decrease projection will be proven wrong.
As I’ve crudely point out in the past: there’s nothing wrong with making models. It’s like masturbating…it’s OK as long as you don’t start believing it’s the real thing
rollin on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 3:23 pm
“Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing energy source until 2035 as the global energy consumption is likely to grow by an average 1.9 per cent per year, according to a report.
The report estimates that global energy consumption will grow by 41 per cent from 2012 to 2035.”
I think we can get better predictions from a crystal ball or a magic eight ball.
In the same vein, here is my prediction. The Earth biosphere will be running on sunlight in one thousand years.
bobinget on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 3:29 pm
Davy, Not to worry about development costs.
While governments will help with tax incentives as always, it will be private capital doing most of the heavy lifting.
For investors, I’ll recommend pipeline and gas bag service companies. Our natural gas city pipelines actually PREDATE natural gas. So called 19th century
‘Town Gas’ was made by heating coal. Pipes were
cast iron. Those pipes were buried in big cities
over one hundred years ago. A recent NYC gas explosion proved last week, those pipes need replacement. Newer pipes will last longer, made from oil.
This year 2014, may prove that point.
Every new industry in infancy, shows growing pains.
Problems with fracturing rock, excess water consumption, aquifer pollution, are solvable barriers to increased production.
Arthur on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 4:55 pm
While I don’t possess a gauge to verify the claims made in the article, I do tend to believe that the end of the oil age will see a follow-up in a ‘golden age of gas’, as predicted by the IEA, possibly until 2030-2035, giving us extra time to work on a renewable energy base.
GregT on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 5:47 pm
“The report estimates that global energy consumption will grow by 41 per cent from 2012 to 2035.”
Meanwhile, back on planet Earth………
“Developed countries must reduce their emissions by 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 if we are to have a medium chance of limiting warming to 2°C, thus preventing some of climate change’s worst impacts.”
http://www.wri.org/blog/developed-nations-must-reduce-emissions-half-2020-says-new-study-0
Written in 2011. (we have now already hit 400ppm atmospheric CO2):
“To have a good chance (not a guarantee) of avoiding temperatures above those levels, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide would need to peak below about 400 to 450 ppm and stabilize in the long-term at around today’s levels.”
“Currently, the atmospheric CO2 concentration stands at 382 ppm and is increasing by about 2 ppm per year”
ht tp://www.climatecommunication.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/presidentialaction.pdf
Every year that we continue to increase CO2 output, we leave ourselves less time for transition. The more CO2 we add, the sooner we must stop all together, if we have any hope of averting a catastrophic runaway greenhouse event.