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Page added on March 17, 2014
Peak Oil: The Military Seems Concerned … Just Sayin’
An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Dr. Nafeez Ahmed (quoting Lieutenant Colonel Daniel L. Davis):
‘A lot of high-ranking officials are starting to ask exactly these hard questions about the sustainability of the current energy system. You’ve got to remember that for the military, it doesn’t matter what you want to do. What matters is what you can do, and it’s our top priority to make sure we understand potential limits to our operational capability. Even the EIA is forecasting that we could see a peak of shale production by 2018 followed by a plateau and decline, and the Pentagon knows this. But our transport infrastructure is totally dependent on liquid fuels. How are we going to sustain that infrastructure with these decline rates? That’s why serious questions are being asked by high level US military officials as to what exactly the Army, as well as American society in general, is going to do to address this challenge.’
Is this a problem? If it is, thank goodness it will only affect the military and not the rest of us!
The military may be worried about how to transport all of its equipment and fuel along with its broad array of weaponry systems, but here in the general population, we have our transportation concerns pretty much under control. Visionary leaders in both government and industry working hard each and every day to provide citizens with all the information they’ll need to properly adapt to the energy challenges our military leaders are concerned with, and plans are this very moment taking shape to allow us all to seamlessly transition away from fossil fuel dependency and its assortment of costs and risks. Better still, industry leaders aware of those impending difficulties are plowing profits into every feasible research project designed to maximize alternative energy supplies.
So that’s what’s it’s like to spin a fact-free, feel-good story! That can be addicting for anyone who benefits from withholding information at the expense of so many others.
Three years ago, I wrote about this issue [here].
In that piece, I cited these observations:
The impact of peak oil on markets, lifestyles, and even national solvency deserves our very highest attention – but, it turns out, some important players seem to be paying no attention at all. [Chris Martenson] [1]
What Chris suspected, and as was confirmed in a presentation (by Rick Munroe) cited in his article, is that while our military (among other nations’) is definitely concerned about Peak Oil and its impact on the operations and responsibilities it’s currently charged with and will likely face in years to come, nothing is being done at the national political level. (Munroe himself, in another article, offered this: ‘This author has yet to encounter a study conducted by a military analyst which dismisses peak oil as an implausible, alarmist issue.’) There are no governmental departments and no bureaucrats who’ve been assigned the task of figuring out anything about what we should do.
Acknowledging as have others that electoral politics hampers our officials from dealing with long-range planning and problems, Martenson added:
‘So I came away from the ASPO conference pondering two completely polar trends that combined to create a lasting discomfort. On the one hand we have more and more private and military organizations coming to the conclusion that peak oil is imminent and will change everything, possibly disruptively. On the other hand there appear to be no plans within the civilian government to deal with a liquid fuels emergency.’
More than a bit disappointing that not much has changed. Maybe it’s just me, but starting to plan after the big problems make their presence felt seems not the wisest choice.
5 Comments on "Peak Oil: The Military Seems Concerned … Just Sayin’"
Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 1:05 pm
Well, civilian government has no answers and further, does not have the ability to address these issues. Politicians live and die by feel good news. They are short term planners by nature. They are reactive and not proactive. The military I can assure you has tested scenarios. I am sure that martial law is a part of the planning scenario. I have often wondered why we don’t see more studies here on rationing of energy for transport, heating, and critical industry. I save great articles. I have one from several years ago that dealt with the effects of 10% reduction in liquid fuels on discretionary transport use. The effects are enormous because of the need to allocate liquid fuels to critical areas of our support system and security establishment. The ratio is around 5 to 1 reduction in discretionary liquid fuel use. Hirsh had a report on rationing policies and tools. These were very difficult to apply and all scenarios had unintended consequences. I wish we would deal more here on this site with these possibilities. Now that we have hard evidence of a contraction coming with respect to oil, resources and financial instability we need to start focusing on answers to basic life support issues
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 4:00 pm
The more analytical and fact-based conclusions point to severe oil/fuel shortfalls in the very near-term future.
The less analytical and more hope-based conclusions point to the possibilities of fusion energy, electric/NG-based transportation and the “glut” of shale play fuels being produced.
We see examples of both on this site every day, both in the articles posted and in the comments posted.
Davy wrote: “I am sure that martial law is a part of the planning scenario.”
That also seems obvious to me, as it should to anybody who is paying attention and has the ability to logically process information.
Boat on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 4:06 pm
I plan to make large profits from bolt cutters around FEMA camps.
GregT on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 4:15 pm
Davy,
You have already found the only viable solution. “WE need to start focusing on answers to basic life support issues”
When one takes into consideration that government “has no answers” and “does not have the ability to address these issues” it should be very clear as to who exactly WE are. Waiting for others to step up to the plate and solve “basic life support issues” is more than likely not going to happen. While I agree that a dialogue is necessary, most people are either completely unaware of the situation, or if they are, believe that ‘somebody else will come up with a solution’.
Stay the course, keep preparing for the inevitable, and try your best to get through to as many people as you can at a local level. Solutions are going to come from the bottom up, not from the top down.
J-Gav on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 5:05 pm
Davy and GregT – Agreed. Getting down to basics in a lucid, rational but still open-minded way is the path that holds the most promise over the coming decade.