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A Gift From The Collapseniks
Of what possible use is it to imagine the end of civilization or even of the species? Is it simply a pessimistic indulgence or can it contribute to progressive and other positive results?
When I was a child, my family’s pastor used to elbow into almost every sermon an admiring reference to “St. John languishing in exile on the rock-bound, sea-girt island of Patmos.” He was referring to the author of the grisly Book of Revelation , the dominant Western source of apocalyptic imagery.
We chuckle at cartoons of robed men on city sidewalks carrying placards that claim, “the end is nigh,” and at bumper stickers that declare, “in case of Rapture, this car will be driverless” (which sounds more dangerous than driving under the influence). Since St. John’s fiery prose, there have been many predictions of the end, including the modern cult studied by social psychologist Leon Festinger in When Prophecy Fails (1956).
Those who see danger tend to accuse others of “denial,” of “refusing to listen.” Perhaps a tincture of denial has given humans an evolutionary advantage. Speaking positively, psychologists refer to “optimism bias.” Most of us tend to imagine that things will turn out better than they do, a common mental pattern studied by such authors as Tali Sharot. While this trait arguably encourages enterprises, some of which succeed, it may also, on occasion, blind us to the possibility of avoidable loss, even terminal loss.
In A Year to Live (1997), Stephen Levine asks readers to pretend they have the awful privilege of knowing when they will die (in 52 weeks) and challenges them to review their histories honestly and to live abundantly in the remaining time. As my wife and I know, from working through Levine’s book with another couple, the result can be an enhancement of life.
During the Cold War, Joanna Macy gave us Despair and Personal Power in the Nuclear Age (1983). Before writing on ecology, on general systems theory, and on hope, Macy taught that a fuller life, including activism, could be approached through uninhibited expression of the deep feelings that led us to be concerned. More recent examples are the grief work of Carolyn Baker, author of Sacred Demise (2009) and Collapsing Consciously (2013) and of Francis Weller, author of Entering the Healing Ground (2012).
Still, it’s going against the grain to ask people to imagine extreme loss. Unlike some so-called primitive groups, our society is not set up for it, apart from isolated workshops. According to both Baker and Weller, working through grief requires the support of a community and the additional safety of a ritual container. For all its virtues, U.S. culture is based more on individuality, the frontier, and risky enterprise, than on mutual support and safe space.
Nonetheless, a growing number of observers of climate change and other trends foresee disaster. We can describe them as collapseniks, a term with a suffix derived from Russian in honor of Dmitri Orlo*, who grew up in St. Petersburg (then Leningrad) and emigrated to the U.S. An engineer, sailor, and writer, Orlov believes that his adopted country will descend into collapse, and that the U.S. is less well prepared than the country where he was raised. If we define collapsenik as an observer who is conscious of the possibility of economic, political, and social collapse and who believes collapse is worth taking seriously, then Orlov has a parade of company, of which I will give chronological highlights at the end of this piece.
There are big differences among collapsenik authors and even in a single author at different times. A spectrum exists, from those who feel we could avoid the worst of climate change by changing our ways substantially (“we’re sleepwalking toward disaster but could conceivably wake up”) to those who believe our species is doomed (“it’s already too late”). For example, scientist Guy McPherson has come to believe that, as a species, we are headed toward “near-term extinction” (niftily abbreviated as NTE).
While pessimists predict NTE, optimists envision the triumph of a progressive politics that would render climate change survivable, perhaps shifting us toward a steady-state economy, slowing the sixth extinction of species, and fostering a network of local and democratic institutions. An optimistic scenario would resonate with what Macy, expressing hope, now calls “The Great Turning.”
In contrast, McPherson argues that it’s already too late for ad equate reform: humans have inadvertently created feedback loops that will keep making the situation worse. For example, the release of methane, caused (in part) by warming of the shallow Arctic ocean and the Siberian and Canadian tundra, will cause more warming because methane is a greenhouse gas even more dangerous than CO2. And so on.
Humans don’t have a very good record of predicting the future, in spite of various divinatory schemes. Whether developments are technological, political, or economic, we have proceeded without reliable forecasts. Given the surprises inherent in complex systems and in technical development, nobody can show that we face certain demise, though we can discuss probabilities.
Could we learn to regard collapse not as a firm prediction but as a scenario worth exploring? After all, the Pentagon has contingency plans for events that are arguably less likely and less devastating.
To return to our original question, what could be the use of taking seriously a scenario of collapse, especially the views that argue that it’s already too late or that changes could help, but probably won’t be made? If we feel grief at what seems to be happening, instead of simply seeming smug in a prediction of certain doom, if we invent ways to lessen the turbulence and create the best that is possible in the new circumstances, if we live intensely instead of habitually, then the scenario of demise might seem no worse than knowing that, as individuals, we each will die. Meanwhile, what are we capable of?
According to Rebecca Solnit’s A Paradise Built in Hell (2010), disasters can bring out the best in people. If the scenario of the collapseniks plays out, we will have opportunities to discover what kind of gardens we can create in the ruins of our present society. So what is the gift? That by responding fully to the scenario, we can meanwhile live more intensely and develop the elements of a society that, under new conditions as they develop, would work.
Now here are the promised examples of recent writers who are aware of the possibility of collapse and who, in various cases, are sketching alternatives. In this century, we’ve been given Tim Flahherty’s The Weather Makers (2001), Richard Heinberg’s The Party’s Over (2003), Jared Diamond’s Collapse (2005), James Howard Kunstler’s The Long Emergency (2005), Clive Hamilton’s A Short History of Progress (2005), Elizabeth Kolbert’s Field Notes from a Catastrophe (2006), George Monbiot’s Heat (2006), another assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), James Lovelock’s The Revenge of Gaia (2007), John Michael Greer’s The Long Descent (2008).
And in the past five years: Sharon Astyk and Aaron Newton’s A Nation of Farmers (2009), Hamilton’s Requiem for a Species (2010), Chris Martenson’s The Crash Course (2011), Guy McPherson’s Walking Away from Empire (2011), Dmitri Orlov’s Reinventing Collapse (2011), Paul Gilding’s The Great Disruption (2012), an even more dire IPCC assessment report (2014), Elizabeth Kolbert’s The Sixth Extinction (2014), and the National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society, Climate Change: Evidence and Causes (also this year). (With a few exceptions, I have listed only the first book in which each author shows a pervasive awareness of collapse.)
In addition, apart from the writers already listed, many of whom write blogs, you can find many provocative personal and organizational websites, some of which publish several writers, such as Arctic News (Sam Carara), Climate Progress (Joe Romm), Collapse of Industrial Civilization (xraymike 79), Collapsing into Consciousness (Gary Stamper), Culture Change (Jan Lundberg), Dark Mountain Project (Paul Kingsnorth), Grist, How to Save the World (Dave Pollard), Our Finite World (Gail Tverberg), Radio Ecoshock (hosted by Alex Smith), Speaking Truth to Power (articles gathered daily by Carolyn Baker), and Yale Environment 360 (edited by Roger Cohn Sr.).
We should of course judge not by the number of collapseniks, but by the quality of evidence these writers bring. It’s a conversation worth having.
12 Comments on "A Gift From The Collapseniks"
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 9th Mar 2014 2:09 pm
Article said – To return to our original question, what could be the use of taking seriously a scenario of collapse, especially the views that argue that it’s already too late or that changes could help, but probably won’t be made? If we feel grief at what seems to be happening, instead of simply seeming smug in a prediction of certain doom, if we invent ways to lessen the turbulence and create the best that is possible in the new circumstances, if we live intensely instead of habitually, then the scenario of demise might seem no worse than knowing that, as individuals, we each will die. Meanwhile, what are we capable of?
Article said – We should of course judge not by the number of collapseniks, but by the quality of evidence these writers bring. It’s a conversation worth having.
It is a conversation of ultimate importance. The number of collapseniks of all stripes and colors should say something about the risks facing us to the “lobby of plenty and human exceptionalism”. I need not mention again the many issues. There are really so many it is difficult to even speak of one without leading into another because none of them are mutually exclusive. We have an all-inclusive stay at the “Hotel California” You can check out in “denial” but you can never leave. I have spent 10 years in a mission of gathering the best of the collapseniks ideas. I have also collected multiple great ideas for the local and personal efforts at preparations and lifeboats. For me it is a hobby and a mission. After so many years the quality of the information on both collapse and the preparations are high. I have given up on the top down efforts. Some may work but most will just make matters worse. We have a choice to give to our friends, family, and community. We can be heroic in the face of adversity. Our actions now will make a difference later “if” nothing more than a small way locally. People will be crying out for answers and survival knowledge. Sure much is common sense yet, since there is so much, there is a need for a repository of information. A library of survival information is very important. I have collection of actual solid physical items. Finally a lifestyle of example is the highest step on the ladder. In your local area create a new way of living post-industrial. Do it in relation to the resources of your local area. We have so many possibilities that offer hope. Will they work? Who know but it is worth the effort. In the meantime live life to the fullest now!
eugene on Sun, 9th Mar 2014 3:42 pm
Doomers are only doomers if it turns out not to be true. There were a lot of doomers the first hour of the Titanic sinking.
Steve on Sun, 9th Mar 2014 5:25 pm
There are four pieces of evidence that have me convinced ‘collapse’ of industrial civilisation is inevitable. The first is the mathemtical concept of exponential growth (see Dr. Albert Bartlett’s definitive presentation for a great understanding; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umFnrvcS6AQ). The second is the concept of limits to growth (see Meadows et al. for the seminal work on this; http://www.donellameadows.org/archives/a-synopsis-limits-to-growth-the-30-year-update/). The third is the ecological observation of overshoot and collapse (see Catton, Jr. on this; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_R._Catton,_Jr.). Finally, I look to Marion King Hubbert’s work on Peak Oil (see this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil). Combine these four concepts and add it to the historical and prehistorical precedents outlined by such people as Jared Diamond and Joseph Tainter, and the conclusion seems fairly obvious. Collapse is a recurrent theme throughout human societies across both space and time.
There are plenty of reasons (sociological and psychological) that many deny what seems to some so obvious, not least of which is the ‘vested interest’ we have in seeing the status quo continue uninterupted. Just because we don’t like the facts, however, doesn’t change them.
How things will unfold is unknowable. We live within a complex, dynamical system that always surprises. Will it be a ‘slower descent’ or a ‘sudden collapse’? Even a long fall could be considered a collapse from a longer-term perspective. Either way it will happen; unless of course Zemphram Cochrane’s test flight of the Phoenix missile-turned-spaceship truly does attract the attention of that Vulcan survey expedition in 2063 and we’re saved from ourselves;)
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Northwest Resident on Sun, 9th Mar 2014 5:32 pm
“There are big differences among collapsenik authors and even in a single author at different times.”
The main division I see in “collapseniks” is in what they see as being the cause of collapse.
On websites like SHTF dot com and multitudes of similar websites, we are gifted with articles and comments from their adoring readers that point to one and only cause of collapse: (drum roll please) — OBAMA! It is Obama himself, that American-hating Muslim Communist Socialist destroyer of all good capitalistic and free enterprise systems that is the sole reason for America’s coming collapse. Every day we get articles that portray Obama as single-handedly engaging in plots to bring down America and enthusiastic supporting comments from the web site visitors. Of course, along with Obama, there are the gays, the liberals, the Mexican immigrants, the Jews and a myriad other collection of responsible parties for America’s decline and eventual collapse. These idiots tend to unanimously deny climate change and oil depletion. It is so much simpler for them to blame Obama and other groups they hate — and it fits their preconceived notions just fine. Count on these doomers to be armed to the teeth, stocked up with gold and silver and in possession of lots of long term food storage.
Then we have the group of collapseniks who realize that our finite world resources have been tapped to the max, that they are running out fast, combined with rapidly expanding populations and a global economy that contributes to everybody wanting a piece of “the good life” that Americans and Western Europeans have enjoyed for so long. We know who those collapseniks are because, in most cases, they are us.
Makati1 on Mon, 10th Mar 2014 1:44 am
‘Reality is a Bitch, and then we die.” Not sure where I first read/heard that but it holds true today. I have accepted my eventual death and when you have done that, you can enjoy life so much more. My first step was trashing the idea of a Heaven or Hell. Then the realization that the only ones who will know I died are those I leave behind, and in a few years, even they will forget. When my time comes, it may be a few moments of pain and then nothing. I will never know it happened.
As for the future, it would take pages to list even some of the black swans circling the earth these days. Climate change will likely take decades to become deadly enough to wipe out all homo sapiens but ice ages have happened rather quickly in the past. Then there is the possibility of a solar flare taking out the electronics and destroying the production/communication systems of the world in a few minutes. OR even a nuclear war that may finish us all off before our next birthday. So many possibilities, so little time.
PrestonSturges on Mon, 10th Mar 2014 2:18 am
There are doomer who foresee an eventual collapse, there are pessimists who don’t put much hope in human nature, and there are nihilists who want destruction for its own sake. On the political right there are nihilists, egged on by the wealthy who see this whole “civilization” thing as a waste of resources.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 10th Mar 2014 3:18 am
Reality can indeed be a Bitch. Much more so for some people than others though — that’s the catch.
GregT on Mon, 10th Mar 2014 4:27 am
“There are doomer who foresee an eventual collapse, there are pessimists who don’t put much hope in human nature, and there are nihilists who want destruction for its own sake.”
And then there are realists, that look at all of the available information, and do their best to come to conclusions based on facts.
It’s all Obama’s fault, and his gay, liberal, Jewish, Mexican immigrant buddies. 🙂
Stephen on Mon, 10th Mar 2014 1:01 pm
Certainly infinite growth cannot go on forever, when we are running out of resources and beyond sustainability. However, as to the existing infrastructure and how much of current society can be saved in some way or another and for how many years into the future, this is a very debatable question. I guess this depends on several factors, depending on what the public wants to use its supplies of remaining resources to preserve, what it considers essential and non-essential, and how much stuff we can run on renewable resources while producing the renewable energy from renewable sources. For example, if everyone stopped driving their cars in the world, airplanes might be able to fly for many more years with the remaining oil supply, as some of the oil that went to cars would go to planes.
Simon on Mon, 10th Mar 2014 2:41 pm
‘Reality is a Bitch, and then we die.” Not sure where I first read/heard that but it holds true today. I have accepted my eventual death and when you have done that, you can enjoy life so much more.
And yet here you are 🙂
J-Gav on Mon, 10th Mar 2014 5:23 pm
The original expression I remember from years ago is : “Life’s a bitch (not ‘reality’ though it is too) and then you die.” It was used in a derogatory fashion in attempts to silence someone viewed as excessively negative.
My take is that it depends on the old ‘who, when, where’ trio. Even excluding war zones and extreme poverty-stricken areas, where the bitchiness goes that extra mile and more, everybody’s life is still going to include some really crappy moments. Everybody’s gotta ‘roll with the punches’ on occasion. Doing our best to make each day as good as it can be is about the best we can hope for.
Makati1 on Tue, 11th Mar 2014 3:12 am
Simon, is that a hint that I should die for your sake? Someone else was reputed to have done that about 2,000 years ago and yet, here we are…
I was merely saying that after you come to grips with death, you stop worrying about it and enjoy life for what it is. You may think that you don’t think about dying, but you do. Do you have life insurance? Do you ever think about the needs of your immediate family if you died today? Do you have religious beliefs that control your life such as Heaven or Hell as your eternal destination? If so, you do think about death and probably several times a day. I don’t. I know it will come someday but I do not fear it. I am not anxious to end this life experience so I do not do anything stupid or careless, but I do not worry or even think about it.