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Page added on February 22, 2014
Transition Towns: The Solution To Peak Oil?
Peak oil is the ever approaching, if not already passed point in which the world’s crude oil production rate reaches its maximum output, and then falls into decline. 86 million barrels of crude oil are produced everyday, however as a planet, we are using around 88 million barrels a day (Transition Culture 2007), showing an uneven consumption rate which will aid the decline of available oil. The International Energy Agency stated that there could be as much as 20,000 billion barrels (Transition Culture 2007) of oil under the planet’s surface but that much of it will remain undiscovered. Additionally, a considerable percentage of oil has been found under protected sites such as reindeer sanctuaries in Alaska and the newly found oil in the Arctic; the question is whether the value of this oil is worth the destruction of these ecosystems and environments as well as threatening species.
A large amount of oil in our globalised societies is wasted, for example as the article from Transition Culture shows, carrots grown in Cornwall are driven to the Midlands for washing, then to London for pricing and then back down to the West for sale in a local supermarket. This is because oil is currently cheap, explaining why fruit, vegetables and meat are flown in from all areas of the world for sale in our supermarkets instead of sourcing them more locally. Oil remains the lifeblood of our economy and lifestyles; it heats our homes, fertilises our food, and fuels our travel, so how will we live without it?
The Transition Movement is a possible solution. Transition is recognising that small is inevitable and that we will move from a global community to a more local one as we reduce our addiction to oil. The movement shows a future with increased agriculture and smaller local businesses, and possibly a better quality of life by creating sustainable development in urban environments. Peak oil may be a chance to rebuild our social capital and community cohesion, creating closer-knit societies with increased food security and reduced carbon footprints. There are currently 278 schemes worldwide, 20 in Britain and 90 more expressing interest (Transition Culture 2007).
Rob Hopkins, a teacher of permaculture at the University of Sheffield, started the movement by creating an Energy Descent Action Plan that involves practical solutions such as a localised food system, renewable energy sources, permaculture gardening, sourcing building materials locally and strategies such as working out how much well-managed woodland it would take to heat a town. He published The Transition Handbook in 2008 (Guardian 2011) which covers these ideas and sets out a plan for the future. However, not everything can be sourced locally, transition is not turning towns into completely self-sustainable hubs but is making them more resilient to economic and oil shocks from the outside. 
Hopkin’s theory is that if we wait for governments to take action on issues such as climate change it will be too late; this has been seen with world leader meetings in the past, such as the G8 Summit on climate change in 2012. They recognise the issue but fail to make changes towards a solution; the transition movement is a bottom up response that is trying to address issues such as peak oil and climate change and to make positive changes now for the future.
Hopkins moved to Totnes in Devon in 2005 and worked with Naresh Giangrande to try and bring these plans into reality. Since then the town has made progressive changes and has become known worldwide as Transition Town Totnes. Over 300 people have visited to undertake transition training in the last five years and transition town status has brought £122,000 to the local economy (Transition Culture 2007), benefitting the locals and future projects.
Totnes is a small town with a population of 4,000 people (Transition Culture 2007), however the residents have become engaged in a variety of projects helping to build their resistance for the future. The transition movement has several projects in operation such as the Totnes pound, a currency particular to Totnes which keeps money within the local economy rather than leaking it out to multinational companies. The pound gives the spender 5% off every purchase of local goods and is used in 70 businesses around the town. This builds economic resistance and gives more money to the locals and surrounding farmers as this example shows; if a euro is spent within the community 50-60% goes back into the community, whereas if a euro is spent in a supermarket only 10% goes back into the community, showing the large amount of money that leaks out from local economies.
The transition network has also been set up to facilitate 
developments and help other towns to set up their own transition programmes. This builds connections between communities as well as within them and promotes the growth of the movement outside of Totnes.
Local food sourcing is a big part of the transition movement, helping local farmers and reducing food miles that contribute to climate change. The food hub project allows residents to order their weekly food shops online and collect them on Saturdays from the local school, this is therefore the same as ordering your weekly shop from Sainsbury’s or Asda but from a local farmer instead, increasing the profit he gains from his crops than if he had sold them to a supermarket. The prices are comparable to supermarkets and helps residents to save money as when stock is low, or in the future when oil is expensive, supermarkets charge a 30-40% mark-up whereas farmers increase their prices by just 10% (Guardian 
2011). The transition network’s garden share scheme also increases the amount of food generated by the local community as residents can grow crops and flowers in other residents’ gardens. There are 30 gardeners and 16 gardens in the scheme (Guardian 2011), solving the problems around a shortage of allotments and providing more locally grown produce. One of the towns car parks is also under planning to be converted back into a market garden by 2030 (Guardian 2011), offering the community a weekly market and social space. 186 hybrid nut trees have also been planted around the town (Guardian 2011), allowing people to help themselves to free communal nuts, building a sharing aspect and community cohesion.
The transition street scheme aims to increase energy efficiency and was one of 20 projects to receive funding from the Department of Energy and Climate Change in 2011 (Guardian 2011). Renewable energy systems have been installed in more than 500 households, 70% of which are on limited income (Guardian 2011), showing their affordability. Every household has cut their carbon usage by an average of 1.2 tonnes, saving £600 a year (Guardian 2011). There have also been 74 solar panels installed on the roof of the civic hall and two applications have been made to build wind turbines on Kingsbridge Hill, utilising the natural capacity for energy production available.
There are however some criticisms of the transition movement such as the question of whether it is too over-optimistic and naïve, and whether this community cohesion is possible. It has also been questioned whether there is a limited size of community in which transition can work, is it limited to villages and small towns or could it scale up to apply to larger towns and cities across the globe. Government reductions in grants for renewable energy systems such as solar panels and wind turbines are restricting those on lower incomes from purchasing them and possibly making renewable energy accessible to only the middle classes and above. Similarly, the systems take years to pay for themselves and so require a large investment. 45% of the residents of Totnes are still unconvinced of the relevance of the Transition Movement, showing not only a barrier to its success but that the problems and future impacts of climate change are not shown in the media frequently enough or to a large enough scale.
Changing mind-sets, lifestyles and culture is the biggest barrier to the transition movement and movements like it, as people continue to be passive about the environment and the issues around them rather than acting upon them and for their own futures. The idea of ‘it doesn’t affect me’ or believing that the impacts won’t be seen until far into the future is naïve, devising a plan to continue life to the quality that we know it and to live after all oil reserves have been depleted is the opposite of this. Hopkins and the transition movement is a smart solution to peak oil and climate change and an idea for our future.
Creating a more localised existence, sourcing local food and energy sources can only be a smart and sustainable solution to climate change. As peak oil approaches it is sensible to start to change our lifestyles, reducing our carbon footprints and effects on the environment. Recycling and reducing our heating usage helps but arguably not to a great enough standard. The transition movement is spreading worldwide and offers a solution where there previously wasn’t one. It may not work in every community and will need to be adapted in each case to make it suitable and sustainable but the movement is at least a solution to the coming problems and future impacts of peak oil and climate change. Rob Hopkins has devised a plan, and one that seems to be working.
13 Comments on "Transition Towns: The Solution To Peak Oil?"
Nony on Sat, 22nd Feb 2014 1:41 am
The entire history of man since the savages has been one of growing trade. Now, these people want to revert to little feudal manors.
Makati1 on Sat, 22nd Feb 2014 2:43 am
If you notice on the map, the idea is only popular in 1st world countries that cannot consider any way of life that is not wasteful. They want to pretend that they can keep some BAU and their comforts after the SHTF. Not so in the rest of the world where ‘transition’ is still a way of life and culture. Not much will change for those billions of families.
Transition is like ‘renewable energy’. It may stretch the wasteful life style for a bit longer, but they will eventually give in when oil goes away. Meanwhile, books will be sold and seminars held for those who still have money they think they can waste on such things. At least, that is my take on the idea.
Ham on Sat, 22nd Feb 2014 3:46 am
In what way is a garden sharing scheme a feudal manor? Secondly, trying to enhance energy efficiency is hardly wasteful is it?
Your golden smile would shame a Politician, this misconcieved cynicism is ridiculous, it is an attempt to work through the problems we face through localism, and such movements should be applauded.
noobtube on Sat, 22nd Feb 2014 4:07 am
Did they fly their jets to discuss sustainability?
Stilgar Wilcox on Sat, 22nd Feb 2014 8:36 am
“…it is an attempt to work through the problems we face through localism, and such movements should be applauded.”
Think about it – how are 7.2 billion people going to transition to localism? There are 20 million people in LA. How will that work? Where will they spread out into the country? How will all the people in cities live in this new manner?
It’s math. No matter how you divide, subtract, multiply, or add the fact is this many people has been achieved over a long period of time due to cheap energy. On the descent of crude from peak price will rise, the economy will contract – you know the drill. And at some point it will become musical chairs as hoards will take what they need from the weak, undefended masses, until the dust settles and some percentage of the previous whole will emerge.
Once that occurs any kind of localized community will surely develop. But to localize from this lofty height is a no go. Even if some people develop localized communities prior to collapse, they will just as subject to pillaging as any other segment of society.
MSN fanboy on Sat, 22nd Feb 2014 9:02 am
lol, so lets say 100 people set up a transition town. If ever collapse occurs, 1000 people are going to come for them and their food. Do they agree and run short on food (die), or refuse and be killed. lol lol stupid idea.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 22nd Feb 2014 11:15 am
The challenges facing our complex global human society are insurmountable. Our system will break to a new equilibrium soon. If that break to the downside to a much lower standard of living (or worse) is going to work it will need these bottom up grass roots efforts. There will also have to be some top down effort. We can expect very little from the top down. If the top down could just not harm the bottom up efforts it would be a start. The current system is brittle to these efforts. Currently all the niches are filled so there is little resources left for these initiative. Even if they succeed the shear amount of overshoot to our carrying capacity will wash out these efforts like a tsunami. “But” there is hope in these type of initiatives. It is possible an awakening can occur in this process of contraction or collapse that will plant the seeds of a rebirth later. I am doubtful much will be left of humanity mainly because of all man’s industrial poisons and weapons that will be left to their own devises when the management ceases.
J-Gav on Sat, 22nd Feb 2014 1:46 pm
I may be a skeptic but I don’t think I’m a cynic so, though at first I had doubts about Transition becoming a collapse-time toy for rich kids, I really have no major gripe with the movement. Particularly insofar as it adheres to permaculture principles and relocalization.
As for the chances of it going viral, the obstacles are real and, as Davy says : “If the top-down could just not harm the bottom-up efforts it would be a start.” The street and neighborhood programs look more promising to me than biting off more than can be chewed by trying to implement change on a town-wide basis right away. I’ve never been to a transition town but I say good luck to those involved.
indigoboy on Sat, 22nd Feb 2014 3:43 pm
Transition Towns is still a bit ‘fledgling’, and I have a lot of admiration for the people motivated to TT, eager to learn or re-learn the skills required to for ‘life simplification’.
That said, I joined a local group in my town, here in NW England. The group were all very nice people, but I got the feeling that a good 90% did not really grasp the consequences that lay ahead. I still attend meetings now and again, just to touch base.
I think Transition Towns is a good start, and its main plus, is in its recognition that communities will have to solve this together, rather than individuals. The argument that ‘Transitioners’, will be at the mercy of those hordes coming down the road who didn’t bother to plant potatoes, is a valid one. But, so it is with the individual, who has a huge store of beans, rice, guns and ammo, but who haven’t worked out how to manage 6 hours sleep without waking to find a sharp knife at their throat.
FuManChu on Sat, 22nd Feb 2014 10:07 pm
I’m an active member in a Transition Town group.
I’m working on getting an urban garden this year, close to town center and involvment of the neighbours. I’ll do a bee keeping course and I am active in trying to increase the population of urban bee’s.
There are other projects I’m not directly involved with, like recycling projects, sharing of tools and clothes. A community repair shop.
Lot’s of stuff really.
I’ve been suprised by the work done, the feedback we get. It seems to me it’s growing pretty fast.
All in all, tho, I agree with the other commenters. It’s too little, too late and most of the people I meet either belive peak oil is far away or can be managed without too much trouble.
At this point I really dont care tho.
It wont matter in the great scheme of things but it does help me. It’s one of the places I can talk about peak oil and its effects. I get to know people with simliar attitudes. It’s good (for me at least if nothing else) to keep bees and increase the population.
I’ll plant an apple tree right in the middle of town.
Sure, it won’t help much. But at this point in time, what will?
Ham on Sun, 23rd Feb 2014 3:15 am
‘Once that occurs any kind of localized community will surely develop. But to localize from this lofty height is a no go. Even if some people develop localized communities prior to collapse, they will just as subject to pillaging as any other segment of society’
Hollywood doom. Nature in red tooth and claw. My guess is that with so many unaware of the consequences, there is hardly likely to be the mass rampaging you suggest, granted, the susceptibility to autocracy is real. It is surely more positive to realise the potential for co-operation that exists. To say it all going to end up like The Road ain’t necessarily true.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 23rd Feb 2014 12:31 pm
My view on transition town initiatives are they are a wonderful idea in preparation for a power down. I believe our only hope in navigating the power down from a global society point of view is many many localized efforts at resilience and sustainability. We will need the lifeboats as examples of a plan B’s to draw on when the fallacy of the current BAU system fails. Our only hope at a peaceful global power down where by globalism ends and we return to a very local society is having a bottom up base of plan B’s to fall back on. We will need established plan B seeds spread across the globe. The top down is brittle and cannot address these challenges. The top down is too preoccupied with maintaining the status quo. All the top down resources are dedicated at the moment to addressing insurmountable problems with the status quo. There is no resources for the top down to throw at these bottom up sustainability efforts or resilience efforts. Do I think this will work ultimately, well, the odds are against it. A systematic crisis to the global support system has a whole host of short and long term dangerous outcomes globally for all global “locals”. This means everywhere the dangerous aspects of the global will threaten and destroy many local effort. We all know what these are. Yet, if there is going to be any hope or a short term existence for many it will be these and many many more efforts in groups or by individuals. Tell me if you could live 6 months more would you. These efforts may be short term survival efforts instead of their intentions of long term survival. I am like @Ghung it will be very interesting times to watch so I want front row seats. Do I expect all my prep work to allow me to live out my natural life, well, likely not.
Patrick on Tue, 25th Feb 2014 1:50 am
Towns cannot exist, with the level of comfort we now know, without oil. Just look at towns two hundred years ago: no electricity, no bathroom, no toilets, no central heating, no washing machines, no running water, etc. Those who want to transition to towns with same quality of life without oil are very naive indeed. If people want to live like in the middle ages it might be feasible, with a knowledge, like e.g. instead of throwing shit in the street we can use dry toilets, but there are still many problems that will be faced with great difficulty: fires, security, hospitals, roads, to name a few ones. Plus everyone speak about food, that can be grown locally. OK, let’s pretend it’s possible, even for one million inhabitants… but what about water, clothes, shoes? If we talk about a village with 100 people it seems OK, but a 1,000,000 city,imagine the number of tanks you would have to build to collect rain water? Running water at the tap/faucet needs a lot of oil to be able to function, as electricity, roads, hospitals, fire brigades, windmills, solar panels, etc, etc. According to me there are three top priorities: water, food, heat. Because if I don’t have those three, I simply die (unless you live in Cuba for the third one). Heat includes heating and clothes. Then there are three ‘if’ priorities: fire, security, health, e.g. if there is a fire and if there are no firemen, then I might die. If anyone think that TT can meet these priorities without oil then they’d better stop dreaming and wake up. Soon. Or maybe that’s what transition towns is: just a dream