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Page added on February 17, 2014
Will Future Food Shortage, Swine Flu Pandemic Or War Stem World Population Growth?
This is a particularly unpleasant subject to write about and I thought long and hard before deciding to write about my findings in the hope it will prompt others to take note and raise the issues within their families, communities and with those whom you have elected to power, so we can do something constructive about it before it is too late.
By way of coincidence the Government has just announced its response to findings that as a nation we ‘must quickly’ find ways of growing more of our own food and to waste much less as the world’s population grows and acknowledging we will not be able to rely upon imported food to meet our needs.
Yet it concerns me deeply when, in the face of overwhelming evidence, the world’s Governments, Major Charities, Health Organizations and News Media all appear to be silent or very timid in dealing with the impending worldwide catastrophe that will almost certainly occur within the next two generations, unless bold and difficult decisions are made and adhered to.
Upon examining objectively the wealth of evidence, (summarized below), I believe it is reasonable to assume, without such intervention, only a natural disaster such as the global spread of a virus, like a more aggressive mutated strain of Swine Flu to deplete the world population by at least 1 Billion people if we are to avoid otherwise inevitable global wars. (Please bear in mind in 1919 the Spanish Flu was conservatively estimated to have killed somewhere between 20 to 50 Million people at a time when the world population was just 2 Billion and far less mobile).
This is a chilling and rather unpleasant prediction, which you may feel to be far fetched but it is a rational one, made after careful study of the available evidence.
Whilst I am unable to provide the evidential links within this article,
Here are a few basic statistics from respected sources:
1. The World population is set to grow from circa 6 Billion to 10 billion by 2050.
2. Almost all of that growth is expected in the developing nations.
3. In the UK the ‘natural’ population is growing by circa 187,000 per year, largely due to an ageing population, (that is population growth excluding immigration)
4. To put that into perspective the population of Milton Keynes is circa 185,000. Thus our natural population growth in the UK is a town the size of Milton Keynes every year.
5. By 2050 the UK is expected to have a population increase of 17,000,000, (it is already have one of the most densely populated countries in the world).
6. In the developed world we are experiencing a rapidly aging population. In the US the average age is expected to increase from 34 to 43 by 2025.
7. In 2008, those over age 65 numbered 506,Million. By 2040 that is forecast to increase to 1.3 Billion. Going from 7% to 14% of the world’s population. Most of that growth will be in the developing world.
8. New entrants into the labour force in the developed world are set to fall by circa 33% by 2025.
9. It has been predicted that by 2030, we will need ‘two earths’ to live on and provide the necessary food to feed the expected population
10. 1 in 5 of the world’s population has no access to fresh water.
11. The UN expects the major conflicts in Africa over the next generation will be over water supplies.
12. The growing population will place an ever increasing demand upon the available water supplies, expected to be a 40% increase in demand over the next 20 years
13. Only 2.5% of the world’s water is not salty.Of that 70% is frozen, leaving only 1% of the world’s water as accessible for consumption
14. By 2020 the world’s fresh water supplies are only expected to meet 17% of the demand for consumption, industry and farming.
15. In China the ground water table is shrinking by 1.5 Metres per year.
16. Changing weather patterns are resulting in dry regions becoming arid, forcing migration of the population.
17. Over consumption of the ground water supplies in many countries is causing salinization of the ground as salt water pushes in to take over the space, leaving it no longer able to support the growing of traditional crops, live stock and wildlife.
18. With current technology, we have circa 50 years worth of economically accessible fossil fuels.
We see on a daily basis the desperate attempts by those eager to come to Britain and other developed countries, as their lives in their home countries becomes ever more hopeless.Based on the evidence I have seen, this is set to increase on an exponential scale and it is this I believe will lead to major conflict.
I do not purport to have all of the right answers but I do know we are going to have to take decisions that, as caring and compassionate people do not sit well with our consciences. As developed nations we will also have ever increasing pressure on our financial resources to provide improved medical and social care. This is already barely sustainable and in the near future, as the balance shifts between those younger people in employment paying most of the taxes and those in retirement using most of the social care budget, it will simply not be sustainable.
I suspect we will have to say no to medical help that extends the life of the elderly still further. As we will have to limit other life saving medical help to others who need it. I have no doubt this is not acceptable to most of us who are seeing a loved one suffer. We are also likely to have to reduce aide to developing countries, yet we will be reliant upon immigrants to staff many of our service sector posts, including the care sector, if we are to have enough staff to look after our ageing population. This will place even more strain upon farming land, housing supply, water supplies, transport infrastructure, etc.
If not carefully addressed, it may to lead to age related prejudices and conflicts as the young come to begrudge being excessively taxed to provide for those who want to live longer and be provided for at the expense of the working tax payer.
Green, fruitful countries with good harvests, good water supplies and a benign climate, may well may become the focus of aggression to secure the new world wealth, ‘Fresh Water and Food’.
In short, I believe we are left with three unpalatable options:
1. Make the tough decisions, which I doubt we will do, as it is too upsetting and there will be a lack of political and social will. In short, the population of the developed world will continue to bury their heads and hope the problem will go away.
2. We can hope for nature to step in with one or two enormous natural disasters, such as viral pandemics. Very tragic for so many of us who will lose loved ones but at least we did not have to make the uncomfortable decisions.
3. We can wait for various nations to start attacking those countries on their borders and further afield to secure their food and water supplies, for these will be the new oil. Then we will have the ultimate catastrophe!
I would like to think I am wrong in what I have stated and would dearly like someone to prove me wrong but following extensive research, all of the information I have gathered has simply compounded my initial concerns.
Validation of all of the above statements, can be found on my website, where the article is reproduced with all of the links to the background research.
29 Comments on "Will Future Food Shortage, Swine Flu Pandemic Or War Stem World Population Growth?"
Makati1 on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 1:39 pm
Obviously, several of the above possibilities will happen. If nothing else, food and water shortages will start WW3. Financial collapse could also take out a large percentage of the developed world population in short order. Maybe I missed that one in the above article, but it is usually not mentioned while being the most likely and soonest disaster. It would precipitate most of the other events in short order.
meld on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 1:47 pm
All three at least haha
Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 1:55 pm
Makati – food and water shortages will start WW3
“Will” is a strong word Makati
I guess this is why you can label me a collapsnik or doomer. The tipping points and potential feedbacks in a range of different areas physical, nonphysical, and natural are overwhelming. Food is of the highest order tipping point as far as a quick game changer. If you are a critical thinker how can you not find doom and collapse around every corner. “Tell me some Frigin good news guys. Let me feast glutinously upon it like hungry wolves on a fresh elk kill. Now, with that said in a complex global interconnected world ruled by a small group of connected, flourishing, and motivated groups and individuals there is momentum to maintain BAU. We are also at Peak Everything with a climate that is still relatively stable. It is within the realm of possibility to keep this racket going for a few more years. Many many potential monkey traps but so far we seem to be getting by. I still forecast the energy brick wall or glass ceiling (9 years<) as the game ender for BAU. I am just praying for a soft landing so we can manage the worst that will be left by our BAU world.
rollin on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 2:22 pm
We will meet the horsemen and eat their horses. Beware the barbarians.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 2:27 pm
@Rollin –
Grandpappy told my pappy
Back in my day, son
A man had to answer
For the wicked thing he done
Take all the rope in Texas
Find a tall oak tree
Round up all of them bad boys
And hang ’em high in the street
For all the people to see
And justice is the one thing
You should always find
You gotta saddle up your boys
You gotta draw a hard line
When the gun smoke settles
We’ll sing a victory tune
And we’ll all meet back
At the local saloon
We’ll raises up our glasses
Against evil forces
Singing, “Whiskey for my men, beer for my horses!”
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 4:34 pm
Even back in the good ol’ days when peak oil concerns were still on the back burner and the economic good times were rolling, pandemic was still a real and viable concern. Now that we’re doing face-plants into all kinds of brick walls — energy, water, food, climate — the risks of pandemic grow even larger. As people’s nutritional intake degrades in some of these hardest-hit developing nations, don’t be surprised if a “super bug” of one sort or another evolves and starts spreading. Just do a google search on “chances of worldwide pandemic” and you’ll find that we are overdue for a big one, and that the experts are giving such an event a “high probability”. Also consider that there are probably very nasty bugs being developed in secret by biological warfare researchers. If you want to put your conspiracy theory hat on and think about it for a while, what better way to thin the global herd to sustainable levels?
rollin on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 4:56 pm
I wouldn’t depend upon pandemics, unreliable at best and only reduce population enough to make a dent. Easy to overcome by having more babies.
GregT on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 5:18 pm
“Will Future Food Shortage, Swine Flu Pandemic Or War Stem World Population Growth?”
Well if they don’t, there’s always ocean acidification, climate change, soil degradation, water shortages, and resource depletion. Or we could just keep burning fossil fuels for another decade or two………
Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 5:43 pm
Guys, a breakdown of the mechanism of global and local distribution system along with the loss of confidence in trade, money, and financing will surely be a possible bottleneck maker. All this talk about feeding ourselves post BAU misses the point that we no longer have the skills in any critical mass to scale. Locally here and there maybe but globally no. No part of the globe has not become interconnected in some critical way and subject to BAU economics in food, fuel, and GDP. Even if there are pockets of food stability they too will come under pressure by armed “have nots”. We definitely don’t have a shortage of military capabilities global and local. Maybe luck will allow a slow decline without tipping us over the edge. A quick collapse means quick hunger which means a nonfunctioning global economic system within weeks. The degree and duration are the key. Yet, I have seen numbers that say a 10% reduction in fuel can bring a country to its knees. If that country is a critical node in the global system then the global system locks up. It is anyone’s guess if it can be rebooted in time. The longer the reboot takes the less will be left. This is comparable to a stroke.
MSN fanboy on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 5:47 pm
“I would like to think I am wrong”. Lucky I am here to sort this out.
You are wrong as your argument is based on prescriptive assumptions on the future which may be invalidated.
Permit me a fourth option.
4: The combination of Renewable tech, advances in robotics, computing and sustainable management come to the forefront.
Take agriculture for example, build a giant greenhouse (Maybe such as a BIO-Sphere) with vertical hydroponic garden farms in cities.
Bio-Tech, We hijack the genetics of such viruses, making them impotent.
Renewable self replicating tech to sort this out ( Solar panels producing enough energy for the manufacture of more solar panels)
Air condition for the warmer climate, Live in metropolis cities around the globe.
Space colonization.
Need I go on?
oh wait, the doomers favourite: DESALINSATION for any water issues providing limitless water. (BTW they have more efficient cheaper permeable membranes being PRODUCED NOW)
If you still lack understanding (Happens a lot on this site)Look at osmosis, if you still find it difficult I advise a picture book.
MSN fanboy on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 5:48 pm
The beauty of my argument is you cannot prove me wrong with the same mechanism used to destroy yours.. good day.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 5:59 pm
MSN fanboy — You’re pretty far out there, aren’t you MSN? How’s the weather in your corner of the universe?
MSN fanboy on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 6:09 pm
Northwest: As a “gifted child prodigy” with 180 IQ apparently I am.
Most normal humans (100 IQ) especially (my fellow Americans) are ignorant and dumb. Sheeple.
The weather.. hot dry sticky. California. apparently were in a drought. Still my pool gets filled everyday with fresh water 🙂 so I don’t mind.
DC on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 6:17 pm
The author needs to consider the spanish flu, devastating as it was, didn’t slow population growth globally in the slightest. Even losing a billion today to some as yet hypothetical ‘superbug’ would be a big deal for sure, but were more than capable of replacing even loses on that scale in a mere decade or so. I am with rollin on this one, dont pin your ‘hopes’ on any pig-full to come along and trim much fat off this worlds bloated population. I dont see it happening.
Davey on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 6:25 pm
Hunger is the handmaiden of genius
Mark twain
Davey on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 6:35 pm
@dc – pandemics do have the potential to cause systematic disruption significant enough to freeze up our global economic engine much like a fuel shortage. Critical individuals can’t work or die
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 6:52 pm
Good point Davey — I meant to mention that pandemics have a strong possibility of severely impacting the global economy. And with the global economy on the verge of crumbling into pieces anyway, a pandemic — even a “minor” one — could be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Travel, tourism, people not showing up for work or going shopping/movies/school, etc…
Flu-conomics: The next pandemic could trigger global recession
“(Reuters) – A high body count is not the only meaningful number attached to a pandemic. The potential cost of a global outbreak of the flu or some other highly contagious disease, however ghoulish to calculate, is essential for government officials and business leaders to know. Only by putting a price tag on such an occurrence can they hope to establish what containing it is worth.
The financial damage by itself can be devastating. The expense of major epidemics is evident every time a health agency totes up the cost of treating infected people — the outlays for drugs, doctors’ visits, and hospitalizations. But that spending is only the most obvious economic impact of an outbreak.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/21/us-reutersmagazine-davos-flu-economy-idUSBRE90K0F820130121
DC on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 6:58 pm
They could indeed, but remember, most of the people alive today are really not critical for much of anything.It may sound mean, but its true. Again, looking at the spanish flu, the losses were pretty significant at the time, and there were disruptions, but society was resilient enough to compensate and carry on. Humanity shook off that pandemic like it was nothing more than a bad cough. Unless you get hit by some super-selective bug that selectively targets the most highly skilled and valued members of society, then no, we likely have enough resilience to shrug off even a major pandemic, just like 1919. It wouldn’t be fun for anyone-but humanity itself is in no real danger-even from superbugs.
Rome, China, Europe all faced major pandemics, multiple ones in many cases, yet were still here. Even the mother of all plagues, the black death, 1/3 of the entire population-did not cause any widespread breakdown of civilization. If anything, in Europe’s case, the black death ultimately did more good than harm. Unless you and yours were one of the unlucky 1/3 of course….
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 7:42 pm
Hey all you doomers and preppers — This article may seem off topic at first, but since “pandemic flu” is mentioned prominently, I thought it wasn’t too far off.
I’m beginning to see these “prepper” and “doomer” type articles show up on websites and in places that never paid a second’s notice to the subjects before. This particular article is from none other than “The Guardian” in U.K. — not exactly a doomer’s rag. I consider it a public service announcement, for anyone smart enough to pay attention.
“We are getting close to what might be called The Noah Scenario. Last month was the wettest January in Britain since records began in 1767. So far this month has been no different, and the Met Office expects the wind and rain to continue until March. Climate change may be a gradual process, but people who live on the Somerset Levels or the banks of the Thames are getting a very sudden education in the value of arks.
It’s unlikely that these floods will be the last such catastrophe, or the worst. Climate scientists expect bigger and more frequent extreme weather events throughout the coming century – not just wind and rain, but droughts as well. Nor is weather the only danger: pandemic flu, nuclear weapons, antibiotic resistance, environmental catastrophe and chronic food shortages could also offer dire threats to civilisation as we know it. You might not want to panic just yet, but you might decide that it is time to join the “preppers” – people who are secretly preparing to abandon modern life when the apocalypse, in whatever form, does arrive.”
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/02/17/is-it-time-to-join-the-preppers-how-to-survive-the-climate-change-apocalypse/
Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 8:07 pm
@N/R – Well in general we are all preppers that buy insurance. We prep financially against disasters when we buy insurance. I try to tell friends and family buy some “contraction insurance” I am talking the basics for survival. I try to tell them that even a small preparation will leverage a much bigger ability to be prepared if crisis occurs. If you have some food set aside that is one worry off your plate to focus on another problem. You know we will be up to our armpits in alligators. A little preparation has another benefit of some piece of mind. It also can be interesting and fun. Many people don’t have much money but if nothing else prepare mentally. Have a plan. Know what are good choices and bad ones. I am talking little things. These Hollywood prepper clowns are what they are and that is reality show consumption. What I am talking out is too boring for TV but it won’t be boring when your kids says he is hungry!
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 8:48 pm
Davy — About the time all those insurance policies expire due to the fact that the insurance companies that issued them are no longer solvent, that’s about the time we’ll be needing the “insurance policy” of bags of rice and beans and cases of water bottles (or other source of water).
I did find it significant that the UK Guardian came out with such a pro-prepper article. I think a lot of people have thought about the need to prep, but considered it a waste of time or a little goofy given the fact that we have oil to last forever and climate change is just some political scheme to get votes. But when the UK Guardian comes out with an article that “makes it okay”, you have to wonder if maybe there aren’t some people at a very high level saying to the editor of that paper — time to start preparing the masses, ’cause we’re going down.”
rollin on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 8:48 pm
MSN fanboy, what are you doing on this site? With 180 IQ I would think you would be smart enough to spend your time in a better way.
That aside, how long do you propose before the actual renewable energy production (solar, wind, tide) reaches a 50% penetration of the world energy use?
Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 9:06 pm
@n/r – Possibly some cognitive dissonance. We strive for internal consistency so when our world view is shaken we tend to get stressed. Well, when I was growing up it was global assured mass destruction. I mean n/r that is not very appetizing either! The MSM is discussing the collapse issue more and more. People tend to filter these things out and prefer the moment. Things are good in the moment until they are not. I find my family and friends will listen a little to what I say but there is an underlining optimism that things will be OK despite the dark clouds. The bigger problem is how long these good times have been the normal. Few people remember global hard times like WWII or depression. That is in the developed world. Plenty of misery in 3rd world. People in my life just don’t want to dwell on these collapse topics. I wonder how much good it is for a critical mass to consider it on a regular basis. Confidence is all important now in maintaining our support system. I admire communities who do a minimum of preparations like transition towns types.
Meld on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 9:21 pm
Just goes to show that a high IQ doesn’t mean one has any sense, just a fantastic ability to delude oneself. MSN shouldn’t you be working at nasa or google…..hang on maybe MSN is Kurzweil??!, hence all the technofix cult babble.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 9:22 pm
“The MSM is discussing the collapse issue more and more.”
Yep. You can only keep a big elephant in the room hidden behind the drapes for so long. After a while, people begin to notice. But rest assured, no matter how many signals get “sent out” to the masses, warning of imminent doom and apocalypse, when “judgment day” finally arrives a majority of the people will tweeting on their IPods, or watching Dancing With the Stars reruns, or sitting in front of their computer mesmerized with the latest video game. That is actually a sad statement on the condition of humanity today — a majority are not adapted for survival, just for consumption, like cattle in a pasture oblivious to the encroaching circle of wolves. Man, it is going to be really ugly when it goes down.
MSN fanboy on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 11:17 pm
MSN is Kurzweil??!, Well. That lasted long.
Makati1 on Tue, 18th Feb 2014 1:31 am
MSN, when you realize that you will be sidelined/ignored here if you keep up with your techno rants, you might actually prove your claimed ‘intelligence’. None of the above are uneducated or unintelligent. Most are likely to be above average, maybe way above even you. I don’t see them bragging about it.
High intelligence does not prove that you are actually better at thinking than someone with a normal I.Q., just as a PHd does not necessarily indicate an educated person. Often it indicates a drip under pressure, i.e. an ‘expert’. Who is usually a conceited, arrogant person you would not want for a friend or to marry your sister. Anyone who waves their supposed I.Q. like a flag is one of those.
Join in the discussion if you want, but do so with an open mind and rational, logical thought. I enjoy someone who makes me think. All your comments make me do is skip over them like I usually skip over RIGZONE articles.
I’m 69 and don’t waste my time on things/people I am not likely to learn something from. I also like to play the devil’s advocate sometimes, to get a rebuttal that might make me think in another direction. A closed mine is more deadly than any of the above threats.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 18th Feb 2014 11:53 am
@Makati – profound words my friend!
RICHARD RALPH ROEHL on Tue, 18th Feb 2014 12:59 pm
All of it… and more.
The sustainable carrying capacity of the Earth, the HOST ORGANISM that supports human civilization, has already been exceeded.
The future looks rather bleak.