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Page added on February 16, 2014
We Can Be Certain Of This
Just as the addict feels “I can’t live any other way,” so we continue clinging to a way of living that is equally self-destructive because we too see no other way to live.
Yesterday I discussed the intrinsic uncertainties in complex systems. (Certainty, Complex Systems, and Unintended Consequences). Amidst this sea of uncertainty we can be certain of this: humans will continue down an unsustainable path that inevitably leads to a tragic end until they succeed in destroying themselves or they reach a point of no return and abruptly change course.
That process of clinging to the present arrangement “because I can’t live any other way” until that arrangement collapses is the primary narrative of our era. It is truly remarkable how humans will cling to a visibly self-destructive, no-exit arrangement because they see no alternative, and then after the present arrangement crumbles and the wreckage is cleared, we somehow manage to find some other arrangement.
Sadly, we only rouse ourselves to change when there is no other choice, that is, after we’ve destroyed the previous arrangement. Take the seas, for example: we’re losing the oceans. The scale of our destruction of this resource is unprecedented and easily visible to all. The Consequences of Oceanic Destruction (Foreign Affairs) Over the last several decades, human activities have so altered the basic chemistry of the seas that they are now experiencing evolution in reverse: a return to the barren primeval waters of hundreds of millions of years ago.
Every trawler that goes to sea (often subsidized by governments anxious to maintain the employment and protein offered by wild fisheries) stripmines another percentage of a fast-dwindling resource, and as a result fisheries are collapsing around the globe.
This propensity to exploit a resource made a certain kind of sense when humans numbered a few tens of thousands. Find a tree with ripe fruit? Pick every one, and then move on.
Unfortunately there are no other blue-water planets teeming with edible fish within our reach. Once we stripmine and despoil our planet’s oceans, there is no “move on to the next one.” The same is true of fresh-water aquifers, soil, and so on.
We can print IOUs, credit and paper money, but we can’t print fresh water once the aquifers are drained. Yes, we can spend billions of dollars and build desalination plants, but this option is limited to small wealthy populations. It is not a solution, it is simply a work-around that consumes extraordinary quantities of energy and capital.
Those of us who are not addicted to heroin wonder how addicts can continue down such a visibly self-destructive path. But how different are we? Just as the addict feels “I can’t live any other way,” so we continue clinging to a way of living that is equally self-destructive because we too see no other way to live.
Just as the addict feels that the alternative is too frightening and painful to contemplate and shooting smack is by far the easier, more comforting routine than risking the pain and trauma of going clean, so we cling to the present arrangement, as doomed and self-destructive as it is, because we too are afraid of change and want to avoid the pain of adapting to new arrangements.
And so the addict continues to the inevitable fork in the road; he either succeeds in destroying himself, and the arrangement ends that way, or he reaches a point so close to the inevitable end that the recognition awakens his instinct not just for survival but for a better life.
And then a small miracle occurs. An alternative way of living becomes visible in the addict’s mind. His fear and desire to avoid pain (not just the pain of withdrawal but the pain of self-awareness and personal responsibility) are still present, but he finds the pain is bearable and the benefits of pursuing this alternative way of living outweigh his fear of change.
His certainty that there is no other way to live but addiction was false. It was always false, but in the mindset of fear and fierce devotion to the present arrangement, no matter how self-destructive, there was no alternative.
And so we continue clinging to the present arrangement, certain there is no other way and that we are powerless to change our circumstances, until the current arrangement collapses beneath us, and we have no other choice but to make another arrangement.
This is the second great narrative of our era. Our job is to describe and discuss another arrangement, a sustainable, non-addictive one that isn’t doomed to collapse from the start, so all those currently clinging to the path of self-destruction will have an alternative when the Status Quo comes apart and the smack they “need” to continue living is no longer available, or no longer available in sufficient quantity or quality.
There is no point in trying to take the needle from the addict when he is certain there is no other way to live; for him, there is no other way to live. The only point of change lies ahead, when he reaches the cliff edge and must decide to plunge to his death, clinging to the present arrangement to the end, or he stumbles away from the edge and musters the courage to seek some alternative arrangement that doesn’t lead to the abyss.
28 Comments on "We Can Be Certain Of This"
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 2:53 pm
@That process of clinging to the present arrangement “because I can’t live any other way” until that arrangement collapses is the primary narrative of our era
Every era has been this way. I can see in my mind’s eye that last tree on Easter Island coming down in the relentless pursuit of the religion of the extant monumental statues. Yet, we should know better with what we know!
@Sadly, we only rouse ourselves to change when there is no other choice, that is, after we’ve destroyed the previous arrangement
I agree we have done selective breeding and removed most of the traits of earlier times except the worst of our human nature unfortunately.
I don’t think the 12 steps would work for us at this point. Denial has to be overcome first!
Makati1 on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 3:10 pm
What ‘alternate arrangement’ will be available after? Extinction.
What ‘selective breeding’ Davy? We are hard wired no different than out prehistoric ancestors. We have outrun our ability to survive without the crutches of technology. How many of us, given nothing and turned out into the wilds of old Africa (or the gang jungle of our cities) could survive for more than a day? Maybe one in a million. Maybe less.
Those in the 3rd world could, and do. Our farm caretaker can. He provides for his family without modern conveniences. He makes charcoal, grows cassava, harvests coconuts and raises chickens. He can build a place to live with local materials, snare a monitor lizard for food and grow most anything edible. I expect to learn from him and in turn, teach him my carpentry and other skills.
Better to go into rehab now and not hope you can cope later.
rollin on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 3:19 pm
If you fully constrain a population and then force feed it to grow in numbers, that is not addiction. That is a population that has few choices and that is the evolution of the market and marketing.
Success for the market, end game for the species of this planet.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 3:29 pm
@Makati – Those in the 3rd world could, and do
Do I detect a fallacy in your argument? A naïve view of the 3rd world. Last I saw the majority of the 3rd world is going through mass urbanization. These urban areas are unsustainable and cannot be supported by indigenous populations in the countryside These rural farms, like you say eek out a humble living. If it were not the AG products from the large producing countries these so called 3rd world oasis of sustainability are toast! Nope sorry, no agreement here
rockman on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 3:29 pm
And all this time I mistakenly thought people made choices…choices made primarily for their personal benefit. I stand corrected. LOL.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 3:30 pm
I have this uneasy feeling that coming soon mother nature in collaboration with Darwin’s Law is going to run humanity through a filter, and those of us still remaining after the great filtering event are going to be few and far between. And even then, the few that are left are going to have a completely despoiled world to try and survive in. It will take ages for mother nature to rebalance herself and to purge the toxic poisons that BAU excreted these last couple of centuries. The only positive outcome of all this is that we’ll have many fewer simpletons and sickly specimens going forward, and there is a very good chance that humanity will have learned a lesson so monumental that it becomes etched into our DNA. See you on the other side — maybe.
Stilgar Wilcox on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 3:41 pm
“…or he stumbles away from the edge and musters the courage to seek some alternative arrangement that doesn’t lead to the abyss.”
That’s a good analogy for probably what will happen at some point. The question then being, what will initiate that epiphany? I imagine it could happen in the throes of panic when the stores are being pillaged. The national guard are then positioned around food centers and shipments are also guarded. Food is doled out in rations, and then there will be some kind of new plan? Not sure where things go from there in a world of declining EROEI. Just because we as a whole finally ‘accept’ our predicament, does not mean there is any feasible plan B for everybody because we can’t stop declining EROEI.
In other words, the current paradigm of the oil age supports our current population, but a plan B won’t even come close.
The more likely scenario is building economic pressure leads to panic and in the aftermath the numbers are culled by people going after each other’s food, down to a number for each country that is commensurate with a non oil age capability to support bottleneck survivors.
jimmy on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 4:05 pm
I’ve often thought the addiction model has been learned too well. We use fossil fuels because they are so useful. Nothing else compares in energy density, scalability, price ect. We haven’t built our entire civilization around them because of some strange irrational addiction. We have done this because they are so useful for solving problems.
MSN fanboy on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 4:09 pm
Hey guys guys, Renewable tech. (Hint-key is in name)
We don’t need to change, we are evermore superlative.
J-Gav on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 4:15 pm
Davy – I think Makati was referring to subsistence farming 3rd worlders, not urban-dwellers. I saw a docu on a Filipino who raises his own fish, chickens … grows cassava, rice, etc I doubt he ever needs to set foot in a supermarket. He looked very fit and well fleshed-out. Of course he’s not alone and other family members share in various aspects of the work. That’s what our Western rural populations need to be doing if the word resilience means anything. Not everybody will be lucky enough to have the right conditions to manage a major transition so, yeah, that filter you mention is unlikely to work on criteria we humans find palatable …
rollin on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 4:30 pm
rockman said “And all this time I mistakenly thought people made choices…choices made primarily for their personal benefit. I stand corrected. LOL.”
People make choices within the constraints of the systems that limit them. Choices outside the system are often met with violence or the threat of murderous violence. Do what the government says, choose what the market offers or pay the price.
Arthur on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 4:54 pm
Google just told me that per human there are 61 trees on this planet. When a human does not drive a car, fly a plane, and basically just IS…
http://www.columbusmagazine.nl/images/user_images11/71269/71269.jpg
…without doing much, like a two-legged tree, there is no problem whatsoever for this planet to harbor 7 billion people. What is the difference between a naked tree and a naked human?
Arthur on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 5:00 pm
To put things in historic perspective, the idea that world is about to end is, well, as old as the world itself. Here a Dutch book of ca. 1552, with interesting illustrations, made by a collapsenik of that era:
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/buch-der-wunder-endzeitstimmung-von-antike-bis-renaissance-a-952540.html
Bill’s ‘Four Horsemen’ look-a-likes can be seen in picture #4.
GregT on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 5:26 pm
Fanboy,
Renewable tech is an oxymoron. Human technology requires finite resources. There are only two kinds of resources available to us. Finite resources, and renewable resources. The only things on this planet that are ‘renewable’, are those that are alive, like trees, or fish. We have passed that point too however, we are now depleting ‘renewable’ resources faster than they can ‘renew’ themselves.
If we don’t change our ways soon, and decrease our populations dramatically, the renewable planet that we live on will no longer be able to renew itself, and we will cease to exist as a species. We are already a long ways down that path. 200 species are becoming extinct every day now, and that rate will accelerate.
PapaSmurf on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 7:18 pm
After 10 years of Peak Oil “imminent doom” predictions on this website, I think they only thing that we can be certain of is more of the same hyperbole from the internet “experts”.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 7:36 pm
PapaSmurf — after many years of predicting that there would be a cataclysmic civil war in America, it finally came true. After many years of predicting that there would be no more old growth forest left in Oregon for the loggers to cut, it finally came true.
And the lame point you are trying to make is, what?
rockman on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 8:23 pm
Rollin – And as you might expect my take: “Do what the voters say and choose what the people want from the market or pay the price.
Sorry but I can’t give up my requirement for personal responsibility. I just reject the proposition that, to a great degree, we have a system in the US that complies with what the majority demands. Trying lay the blame off on anyone else is just a self-justification ploy for many.
bobinget on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 9:00 pm
This American ‘Civil War’ NW Resentment speaks of,
1861 to 1865, was almost settled business till a majority of Americans elected a black guy to the Presidency. If one exists today, it’s far less bloody but even more uncivil.
As for old growth, its like peak oil in some sense,
unless lumber prices go higher, harvesting O Growth
is uneconomical given saws aimed with lasers and machines that cut and lay down more trees in one hour than grandpa chopped down in an entire season.
Technology saves energy, BTW.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 9:25 pm
“NW Resentment” — huh? Typo? Or if intentional, what am I resenting?
Otherwise, good point on the machines they use up here to slice down forests these days — not that there is much old growth left to cut even if they were allowed to cut it, and what old growth does remain is mostly in very hard-to-get-to places which is why it wasn’t mowed down a long time ago to begin with.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 9:33 pm
@Arthur – We are not really looking at the world ending in a sense of earlier times. Yet, I accept this could happen with all the modern earth ending inventions and wastes we have accumulated. I see the world ending as we know it. We are in a sense about to enter a new cycle. The cycle will likely be a break to a lower complexity. How, When, and where are beyond any predictions I have seen. I would not call me a doomer or a colapsenik. I would like to be looked at as a human systems ecologist.
@Gav – I know Makati’s romantic vision of the hardy 3rdworlder living off the land is all fine and good until the masses desert the mega cities into the country side. There is not enough food without imports for much of the 3rd world that is not also a food exporter. Even those food exporters including the US will have grave food issues due to economics of food shortages from a deindustrialized world. Ok, some areas will not feel the refugee pressure. Yet, most farms today rely on the green revolution baggage. All the inputs of the developed world ag have filtered down. The system was once strong and resilient but then the large Ag firms found their last market to break. So while I agree many areas will manage. The facts are the worst overshoot is occurring in the 3rd world at the moment with their once strong farming traditions broken by the AG industry pirates
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 9:50 pm
@PapaSmurf – After 10 years of Peak Oil “imminent doom” predictions on this website, I think they only thing that we can be certain of is more of the same hyperbole from the internet “experts”.
Papa, you are misguided here. It is not about us proving you or anyone wrong of vise versa. It is about an explorations of “what ifs”. It has been a journey of sorts of learning. Learning is about enlightenment through education. Learning also comes from mistakes. Our mistake here and elsewhere I have noticed is typical human nature. We are not good at being patient. I will interject this, 2008 was as close to a complete collapse as we have come in the modern age. We were days away from a “Minskey Moment” of economic paralysis. These situations can spiral out of control in a global interconnected complex world. This is especially the case when you have much of our personal survival relying on the global economic system with its far flung distribution systems. Food is the key to social stability of the 1st order. A few days without it in a widespread setting is a game changes. So Papa if you are here to make a bet and see who wins you are mistaken. We all want something good to come from this bad news. Our views differ on what is a good outcome but few are looking for the worst of the Bible.
DC on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 10:36 pm
I have always felt that the addict analogy has never been a very good one. Addicts chose there destructive lifestyle, I didn’t ‘chose’ this toxic industrial consume all society, I was born into it-as we all were. And we weren’t even given the option to say no to it were we? Our ‘choices’, such as they are, have mostly been limited to such hot-button ones, as, coke or pepsi, Ford, or Chev, or capitalism, or capitalism. Personally, I have no chemical addictions, I barely even drink alcohol anymore, I have that choice. What I dont have, is a choice between car-free, or Wall-mart free. Or locally grown food vs industrial ag. If meaningful choice truly did exist, I think a substantial segment of the population would voluntarily exit mass consumption-industrialism without much regret. And Im not talking about cliches like living in caves and eating mud pies. There are other modes of living besides top-down authoritarian corporate rule AND living in a cave. Of course, such options are not permitted, and anyone advocating them, are often targetted for official harassment and ridicule in the popular ‘press’.
So no, I think the addict analogy is a little over-used. It tends to trivialize the issue rather than clarify it. IMO.
In the third world, that mass migration is being orchestrated by the corporate neoliberal elites. To create an even larger pool of cheap labor-to inflate markets for cheap low quality goods, and to make people easier to contain and control. Mass globalization forces people to make unhealthy life-style choices-like move to large un-sustainable polluted urban centers.
ted on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 11:31 pm
I wish papasmurf was or is right…but I know he is not….we threw trillions of dollars down a black hole and have very little to show for it…except an inflated stock market and oil prices back up over 40 a barrel. The people in power know what they are doing right?!/ Just a sad state of affairs if you ask me…
Makati1 on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 1:17 am
I do live in one of the world’s largest cities, population over 12 million, but many of these people go home to the countryside when they can (weekends/holidays) and most will go back to those subsistence farms/homes when the SHTF. The non-survivors are the ones who own the big businesses and are, for the most part foreign stockholders and bankers, and permanent city dwellers, and many of those also have homes in the provinces to go to.
Of course there will be problems here, but they will not be food problems, for the most part, nor will they have to worry about cold or shelter as even in the rainy season, it rarely rains for more than the length of a thunderstorm. It is not cold rain. And the temps in most parts of the Ps is in the 70s and 80s F..
So, I will take my chances here and hope that we can get the farm finished before the SHTF. If not, I will be in no worse condition than if I still lived in Philly. Good luck in YOUR choice.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 1:56 am
Makati – in 2008 the Philippians was the top rice importer in the world.
Check this on Bloomberg (I know msm) but can you counter?
“The high cost of food is a politically sensitive issue in our country,” Philippine Senator Edgardo Angara said in a March 9 statement. About 80 percent of the nation’s population allots 60 percent of their expenditure on food, with half of that budget spent on rice, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-10/philippines-rice-imports-may-beat-target-amid-rising-global-food-costs.html
Makati, you are out to talk up the Philippeans and down grade the US. I am not buying into your argument.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 3:46 am
Makati — I read an article today on Yahoo “front page” that claimed four million Philippine residents were still homeless in the aftermath of Yolanda. I remember that typhoon. If the Marines hadn’t landed with boatloads of food, there would have been a very ugly scene and a lot of people dead. The family I know in the Philippines has to spend almost all of their money on food. You must know, there are way too many people in the Philippines. I have often considered getting a doomsday hideout in the Philippines — but way up on a mountain is the only place I would feel safe, and even then…
Arthur on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 8:07 am
We are in a sense about to enter a new cycle. The cycle will likely be a break to a lower complexity.
Davy, that’s the right way to see it. A new chapter of history will be opened.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 17th Feb 2014 12:52 pm
@arthur – We are in a sense about to enter a new cycle. The cycle will likely be a break to a lower complexity.
I find the Mayan calendar relevant here from the point of view of history and systems study. You all may get tired of my theoretical systems thought here. I sound like a broken record. This thought is airy theory and not concrete but where the Mayan on to something? They saw some math in the world’s cycles. The whole 2012 Hollywood thing was ridiculous as well as the religious loons predicting the end. It gives people like us a bad name for even discussing these issues. I have found what I read in system theories fits in good with ecosystems. Our global complex interconnect Anthropogenic world is systematic and cycles IMHO.