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Page added on February 5, 2014
Future food; We can grow enough, but how will we distribute it?
When we talk about the future of food, we usually start with world population growth. Estimates say we’ll pass the 8 billion-people mark around the spring of 2024. The worry for decades has been if we will be able to feed all those hungry mouths.
The number of hungry mouths may not be the problem. A 2002 United Nations study showed that global agricultural production would exceed the population’s needs just six years after we hit the 8 billion mark. How we distribute and sell food in the future could be far more important – and more interesting.
Moving it
“Oil isn’t cheap,” Katie Camden says when asked about the future of food distribution. “Plus, over the next 10 to 20 years, it’s not going to get any cheaper.”
Camden started her career in neuroscience, but then she moved into the food business. She and her husband, Micah, have a string of successful and unique restaurants in the Pacific Northwest. He’s the chef; she’s the brains. She refines and iterates each operation like a ruthless engineer, optimizing each step in the production and the distribution chain.
Camden is the go-to person when it comes to the future of food. She’s all business. Her no-nonsense perspectives always provide a clear vision for where she sees things going. She has strong opinions.
“The cost of just moving food – especially over long distances – is always going to be expensive,” she explains. “It’s really the limiting factor. It’s not a food problem. It’s not even a farm problem. It’s an oil problem.”
Even with the recent shale gas boom in the U.S., the long-term cost for oil is not projected to drop. On the contrary, it has risen from around $25 a barrel in 2002 to $100 in 2013. The race to renewable and alternative energy will continue over the next few decades.
So if oil and transportation are the real limiting factors, then what should we do? What are the opportunities?
“More food retailers and restaurants will look to local farms and food producers,” Camden believes. “I don’t just mean small farms but all farms that are nearby. Retailers will base their operations on what’s available locally,” she says.
One of her most popular chains is Little Big Burger, a series of purposely small take-out restaurants that serve high-quality hamburgers from only locally sourced beef. “We’ve looked at opening our hamburger restaurants in Texas and Colorado because of their amazing local beef,” she says.
In Camden’s view, the next 10 years will see more local businesses working with local farmers to source food. She says it will go beyond that to the very issue of what’s available from those producers. “That will drive those businesses,” she predicts.
Selling it
The business of food retailing is just plain hard, with notoriously low profit margins and stiff competition. Retailers are always looking for the newest innovation that will differentiate them. Because of this, hints to the future can be found in the aisles of your local market, as well as in your email in-box, in your smartphone, and in the mass of data being created.
Affinity card programs are nothing new. Those little cards are scanned at supermarket checkouts to get special discounts. Soon, those cards will be paired with high-tech data analytics and real-time shopper tracking. Something really different is emerging: a hyperpersonalized shopping experience.
It isn’t complicated. With your permission, an affinity card tracks everything you purchase. The store offers up coupons that fit your habits. The deals land in an in-box or smartphone app, giving automatic savings at checkout.
It gets interesting when stores cross their data with other information about you. They not only can give discounts on what you are about to purchase but also can make suggestions based on other activity. You might be tracked in real time as you move through a store and are offered suggestions based on health history, social network, and your favorite movies.
Tomorrow Belongs to the Shopper
Most of us don’t realize the power we have when we make those seemingly mundane decisions in stores. Long before crop shortages plague the global supply chain, consumers will vote with their purchases. That sentiment will drive the future, and the real opportunity lies in the imaginations and aspirations of average people all over the world. The interesting question is how can farmers start to participate in that conversation?
35 Comments on "Future food; We can grow enough, but how will we distribute it?"
Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 12:40 pm
I think it is a great idea to promote local in the context of the capitalistic society we are in. We need 1000 silver bullets. Yet, these things cannot even begin to scale to the challenges ahead. There appears to be no way to increase food production much. We are quickly ruining or depleting many of the vital inputs. 19th century agriculture can only support 1 billon at best. I have seen articles on how we should quit meat, eat algae, and insects. Come on, human nature is not like that. We are not going to change our diets much in a global sense to make our overshoot more sustainable. Big Ag is not going to go away until it is bankrupt. We will have to learn how to do less with less. In ever increasing circumstances we are going to see our food choices diminish. We will see things like ocean fish and fresh vegetables unavailable. Our choices will narrow. If the coming contraction is gentle enough many of us will start the process of eating seasonal and local by necessity. Time is of the essence to learn the skills to do this. The dumb trip to the grocery store will end eventually. Laws of thermodynamics say so not the market laws. I would say now start collecting any knowledge you can for this transition because nothing will prepare us for how dramatic and challenging this will be. We have a monumental challenge ahead to rediscover sustainable food and the local markets. These skills that we developed as a species for the last 1000 years are being lost very quickly. Each generation has lost knowledge and skills at an exponential rate. Time is short and hunger will be knocking at many of our doors. Maybe not famine but definitely great depression food choices
Dave Thompson on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 1:32 pm
Global climate change is going to be the tell.
ghung on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 2:11 pm
It’s OK, Dave. The Government has their top men on it… TOP. MEN. –
USDA Regional Climate Hubs
What are USDA’s Regional Climate Hubs?
USDA’s regional hubs will deliver science-based knowledge and practical information to farmers, ranchers and forest landowners within each region of the US to support decision-making related to climate change. These hubs are needed to maintain and strengthen agricultural production, natural resource management, and rural economic development under increasing climate variability. The Hubs will build capacity within USDA to deliver information and guidance on technologies and risk management practices at regional and local scales.
http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/regional_hubs.htm
ghung on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 2:17 pm
From the article: “….those cards will be paired with high-tech data analytics and real-time shopper tracking….
….Something really different is emerging: a hyperpersonalized shopping experience.“
So that’s what they call tracking your movements, your habits, and your purchases these days, eh?
meld on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 2:39 pm
“a hyperpersonalized shopping experience”
HA! good luck with that , my interests change on a whim day by day cockers!
Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 2:56 pm
ghung on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 2:11 pm
It’s OK, Dave. The Government has their top men on it… TOP. MEN. –
I feel so much better now. I was just having a panic attack!!lol
1. ghung on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 2:17 pm
Something really different is emerging: a hyperpersonalized shopping experience.“
So that’s what they call tracking your movements, your habits, and your purchases these days, eh?
Bastards going to monitor my bowl functions soon. OK, but what will they do when grid flickers and their big MF computers blink and smoke and I don’t mean the good stuff. I guarantee they have nothing written down on paper. Pooof there goes all that data. Do you think a smuck at NSA will remember his hug list of subversives? I hope I am one so I can tell my kids I fought Goliath.
Northwest Resident on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 3:42 pm
Speaking of food and farming, there is nothing but bad news or worse than bad news. For example:
A new study out of Iowa State University confirms that industrial agriculture (please don’t call it farming) continues to squander the precious topsoil on which its existence — and ours — depends. This is a problem that has nothing to do with global climate change, or peak oil, but that may hit us all harder and sooner than either. The bad news in the study is that the losses of topsoil are stunningly large. The other bad news is that they are getting worse, despite billions of dollars’ worth of “conservation” efforts. There is no good news.
http://www.dailyimpact.net/2013/02/04/industrial-agriculture-losing-ground-faster/
Or this:
Her (World Bank’s vice president for climate change) own bank predicts “potentially catastrophic” disruption of food supplies with the approach of 2100; Oxfam foresees a 20 per cent increase in hunger by 2050; other recent academic studies predict a 35 per cent failure rate of Chinese harvests, a decline in wheat production in India and Pakistan of 20-40 per cent by 2020 (!) and so on.
http://www.dailyimpact.net/2014/02/04/world-bank-agriculture-faces-havoc/#more-2053
I’ve always been a “grow your own” type of guy, and now is an excellent time for me to expand my green-thumb tendencies to other crops. Everybody should be thinking about doing the same, soon.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 4:06 pm
Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 2:56 pm
Do you think a smuck at NSA will remember his hug list of subversives? I hope I am one so I can tell my kids I fought Goliath.
OK, maybe that statement was on the cocky side. I watched “zero Dark Thirty” we all have our breaking point. I best be on good behavior so I don’t get my butt kicked
Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 4:29 pm
Northwest Resident on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 3:42 pm
I’ve always been a “grow your own” type of guy
lol me too but have not touched any for 8 years that was back when they would take your farm!!
ghung on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 4:31 pm
NR- Not to burst your grow-your-own bubble, because we won’t have much choice, IMO, but it’s getting harder. Case in point: The last few years we’ve been battling “super pig weed”, or Palmer’s Amaranth, a devastatingly prolific invasive that is the direct result of factory ‘farmers’ spraying Roundup on their crops. It’s tough, has deep roots and spiny thorns and is resistant to just about everything. Good news? The seeds are edible.
Oh,, and then there’s the fairly recent invasion of the Asian Stinkbug….
Northwest Resident on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 4:51 pm
ghung — It sounds like you’re battling some real pests where you’re at. Fire ants too?! In the Pacific NW, we haven’t been invaded by such nasty critters and weeds — yet. So far, so good. My not-industrial-scale garden and my brother’s and my co-workers all got good and expected results. Pick a few weeds, thin out the weaklings, keep an eye out for bugs, let the rain and sun do the rest. Hopefully nothing changes in that regard, but with climate change, it probably will. In preparation, my plan includes completely enclosing my raised planter beds in clear plastic — and I have lots of big rolls of clear plastic — and duct tape!! I’m “good to go!”.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 5:59 pm
Ghung/NR, battling invasives here on my pasture restorations for grass fed cattle. Many were introduced around 1940’s like sericia others like cheat grass were early invaders following the steamboats. My options are burning/spraying regimen. It is a never ending battle and what is coming yet????what GMO monster is lurking. Monsanto is just up the road and Fort Wood Chemical training site down the road
As for gardening it is going to be tough to feed ourselves. Gardening will only cover 30% or less of our needs. Unless we are going hunter gather and following Buffalo herds we will need grain, meat, and dairy. Grass fed cattle will work but it is not as easy as it sounds to run cattle post hydrocarbons. I am in the country so there are deer, berries, and birds. These things in the past were quickly depleted when times were hard.
For the past two years I have been serious about a garden. It is not cheap. I do things right and I like quality. After deer fence, seed grow lights, tiller, tools, seeds/plants, fruit trees, and my time you are talking a few thousand $$$. Now over time that will average out but it will not be easy for a population to en mass go to gardening. This is why many regions will have a leg up in a collapse over developed nations because they are already struggling and have gardens or food growing by necessity
Northwest Resident on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 6:50 pm
Davy — It looks like you’ve put a lot of planning and thought — and hard work — into your self-sufficiency setup. It IS expensive (relatively speaking), which is why most people don’t stand a chance in hell of getting set up, even if they wanted to. I just got a huge delivery of materials that cost about $2000 — all to build out my raised planter bed and chicken/rabbit coup design (yeah, I have it plotted out on graph paper). A huge part of maximizing limited grow space is to use lattices and get upwards-growing vegetables and fruits, so I have a lot of material for that. Can’t raise cattle here and don’t want to try. But I’ve taken a few chicken-raising classes and read up a lot on it. I’m starting with just a few “layers”, but can quickly ramp that up to a couple dozen or more chicken. A significant portion of home-grown crops will be oats, rye and other “chicken feed”. Eggs and the occasional BBQ chicken (and maybe mix in a few rats and bugs) will be all we need for protein — I hope. Not that I won’t be growing a few crops that have high protein content. We’ll see how it goes. Hopefully I get a year or two of experience in full-mini-farming practice (and preserving) before I have to actually depend on what I grow for survival. If I can get the same proportional yield out of my full-scale mini-farming setup that I got out of my little veggie garden the last couple of years, I’m thinking it will be enough. Especially since I have bags and bags and bags of wheat berry, rice, beans, salt, sugar, etc… stored up along with the multiple boxes of Spam and assorted canned goods. I figure I’ve got enough food saved up to last through a year — not including what I grow or catch. If I can make it a year on my own, then there should be plenty of wild deer, dogs and rats/squirrels roaming around to supplement the veggie diet (knock on wood). Or, a zombie could bite my head off on day one, but hey, at least I tried.
ghung on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 8:07 pm
Davy: “Grass fed cattle will work but it is not as easy as it sounds to run cattle post hydrocarbons…”
Goats? That’s our plan; primarily meat goats (“Kikos”) and maybe a milk goat or two, perhaps run a couple of cows with them. We had cattle for 35 years, so I know how much trouble they are. Goat meat is healthier, and our place has the potential for a couple of dozen goats without external inputs. They’ll also do most of the mowing on a post-petroleum farmstead.
I just didn’t relish the idea of handling 1/2 ton cows in my later years. There’s also a growing market for goat meat (that changing demographic thing). We’ll need guard dogs for the coyotes (and likely coywolves in the future), but we already have dogs; always will. Feeding the dogs will be problematic, so any dogs will have to earn their keep. People managed to have dogs long before there was commercial dog food.
We also have lots of deer, wild turkey and wild pigs in the area (14 deer on the front lawn this morning), but that could change pretty quickly. Squirrels, ‘possum, and rabbits all make great taco meat; not sure about groundhogs 😉 and plenty of cattails and lotus in the ponds; both edible, nutritious and prolific. Also looking at ducks for the ponds, if the Canada geese don’t bully them. Feral game hens are also a possibility, but they can be a pain. Lots of possibilities if one has a little land and good water.
We’ve stockpiled over 10,000 rounds of .22; fine for small game and dispatching smaller livestock. ‘Homeland security’ is another matter.
andya on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 8:20 pm
Those stinkbugs have ruined my tomatoes for the second year in a row. Not sure what to do, I’m not overly bothered atm, hence I’m not spraying. Still it’s a problem for the future.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 8:28 pm
NR/Ghung, sounds like we are on the same page. I am following Joel Salatin’s polyface farm ideas. And yes, goats, rabbits, and chickens are in the plans. I need goats not only for meat but as tools in grassland management on my 400 acres. I recommend NR you check out Thrive foods. The #10 cans generally have 30 year shelf life if stored properly. The can be in addition to all the other things mentioned you stocked away. As for ammo. I have lots of ammo stored up. I can always trade and batter it if nothing else. I also collect Kentucky bourbon and vodka. Naturally gold is a good idea in the 10th oz size. Hand tools of all kinds are good ideas. There are so many things to get going and collect in a post hydrocarbon world. This is why I hope I have a few more years to take care of odds and ends while I can still count on Amazon and UPS to deliver to my door. I might mention I have two strategies. One track is for short term life boat in case of a crisis. The second track is something on the lines of an Amish farm but not afraid to includes so good tech ideas that may have a future.
J-Gav on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 8:33 pm
NW – some very pertinent comments there, as usual. However, when you say that topsoil degradation has nothing to do with climate change, I beg to differ. A mere 5% topsoil regeneration program (worldwide, and there’s the catch) would make C02 practically irrelevant.
Northwest Resident on Wed, 5th Feb 2014 9:15 pm
J-Gav — that topsoil statement was a copy-and-paste from the linked article, I actually am not informed enough to make my own statement on the subject. I’m curious now — how would a 5% topsoil regeneration program worldwide make CO2 practically irrelevant?
ghung on Thu, 6th Feb 2014 12:19 am
Ha! I mentioned above that we have wild pigs in the area; certainly a good source of food. I have a trap I keep set up in a cove below the house and went to check it this afternoon. Score one fine young wild boar, about 150 pounds and meaner than timber rattler. I’ll probably trade him to a friend for a sow since hormonal young boars aren’t the best for eating. In a pinch, we would castrate him and feed him out for a few months (not exactly legal, but who cares if one is hungry). My buddy sets them free in the remote forest to hunt later with their dogs. The meaner, the better.
Food is where you find it, if it doesn’t find you first. These are dangerous and destructive non-native beasts, but suitable for the smoker. The young sows are absolutely delicious.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 6th Feb 2014 12:40 am
Good job ghung. I Hunted pig in south TX years ago. I also hunted in Spain north of Madrid. I have eaten the pig and it is delicious.
energyskeptic on Thu, 6th Feb 2014 1:36 am
Famines ended when railroads could move food from regions of abundance to areas where crops failed. The problem now in America is that the majority of people live a LONG way from where their food is grown, and hungry people between the midwest and east and west coasts can blow up railroad tracks and hijack trucks. distribution is the big issue. There’s not enough water or land to grow food in most local areas. In the past, the best bottomland often remained unfarmed after collapse because people pillaged whatever farmers had grown, or tried to enslave them. Only farms near towns that offered defense of the farmers could grow food. People living in isolated homes on farms or ranches are going to be incredibly vulnerable. And with such a huge percentage of the population owning guns, and so many other factors, I have never figured out a bulletproof way to navigate all the hazards ahead, good luck to all of you!
Makati1 on Thu, 6th Feb 2014 1:51 am
Lots of ideas and actions in the comments above.
Deer fence? Deer will be extinct the first winter there is no grocery stores full of food or money to buy what there is. Ditto any other edible animal or bird.
Tiller? It’s called a rake, hoe and shovel in my garden. Never owned a power garden tool. Never will. Muscle is cheap, using them keeps you fit and you don’t kill as many worms and other necessary wildlife in your soil.
Meat? You will be eating a lot less and should start cutting back now so you get used to not eating it. Here in the Philippines only the wealthy eat meat often. Ground beef (regular) is P300/kilo. ($3/lb.) and the average laborer makes P400 ($10) per day. How much meat does his family eat?
Want to raise a steer? Do you have a few acres of good year round pasture or at least 5 lb of grain, per day, to feed them to make them grow to a butchering size? By the time they are approaching that size they are eating 10 lb. of corn or equal, per day, or more. So, that is 2-3 tons of corn or equal per 800 lb steer, not to mention thousands of gallons of water. Still want to eat meat? Why do you think corn is so popular in 3rd world countries? Or rice?
And on and on…
GregT on Thu, 6th Feb 2014 3:47 am
“Future food; We can grow enough, but how will we distribute it?”
In the future, there will be no need for transport in food distribution.
Build a tall barbed wire fence around the farm, fortify it with guard posts, and then wait. If the farm is within a few days walk from the cities, people will show up, eventually. Distribution can be done easily enough, simply by tossing the food over the fence. No need for the 2000 mile diet and oil for transport, those that want it badly enough, will come looking for it.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 6th Feb 2014 1:25 pm
Makati1
Do you think everywhere will lose their natural resources. The Philippians is way past their carrying capacity. Just look at the deforestation there. We don’t have that here and there won’t be people on my 400 acres killing deer. The same is true for my neighbors. I have no garden without a deer fence. Animals are my single biggest problem in the garden
Tiller? It’s called a rake, hoe and shovel in my garden. Never owned a power garden tool. Never will. Muscle is cheap, using them keeps you fit and you don’t kill as many worms and other necessary wildlife in your soil.
Makati1
Makati, I have 400 acres to rehabilitate and work 12 hour days when conditions allow so I have a tiller. I am investing and have the hand tools for collapse
Meat? You will be eating a lot less and should start cutting back now so you get used to not eating it. Here in the Philippines only the wealthy eat meat often. Ground beef (regular) is P300/kilo. ($3/lb.) and the average laborer makes P400 ($10) per day. How much meat does his family eat?
Makati1
Its all about local, here in Missouri we are one of the largest cow calf producing areas in the world. We have good pasture. We grow them then they get shipped to feed lots. I am going to keep them here and raise them on grass. It is our comparative advantage. Tell a Maasai to not eat meat.
Makati1 on Thu, 6th Feb 2014 2:09 pm
Davy, I can only laugh at your lack of understanding. You will not own any land after the crash. Try to keep our armed hunters and you may be the first one shot. 400 acres is about a 2/3 of a square mile. It WILL be hunted bare and you will not be able to stop it.
As for the Philippines… think about the drought in California and the frost in Florida and think about what you can physically grow that will not be taken from you by any well armed gang. You cannot get far enough into the woods to get away from 10,000,000 armed killers out to feed their families. The Ps are better than any place in the US for food after the oil wells stop. GMO seeds will stop flowing, then what? When you cannot go to the local farm supply, then what? Not that problem here. The land may be poor in some places, but it still grows the stuff you really need to live.
Missouri is going to be the first places to go belly up when it happens. You will have no beef unless you stand guard 24/7/365 with enough firepower to keep the gangs at bay. I doubt that you do or will. When the pasture drys up, you will be one that is moving on … and climate change is going to do that to most of the US. Especially the south.
Makati1 on Thu, 6th Feb 2014 2:11 pm
Oops! 13,600,000+ hunters as of 2012 and that number will quadruple when the SHTF.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 6th Feb 2014 2:40 pm
makati1 all I can say is your cockiness is regrettable because you have been doofed by the MSM you are following to draw conclusions about Missouri. The very same MSM you rant and rave about. I doubt you have ever been here to Missouri. If so you were passing through to a tourist destination. I am sure you heaped criticism on us heathens. You are high and mighty may I bow at your knees and kiss your ring of infinite wisdom. If you insult my land you best think about how bad your homeland is. Talk about a mess.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 6th Feb 2014 3:58 pm
Davy — Makati1 has vivid and frequent fantasies of Americans killing each other off in a collapse scenario. I recall one of his previous statements on the subject was “should be interesting to watch.” Its one of those situations I think where dark minds can only perceive darkness. I tried to engage in logical debate Makati1 via this posting board a couple of times, but you know, it takes two to tango.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 6th Feb 2014 4:44 pm
NR, agreed, I may of reacted with passion instead of reason. I just live here and know my people and my land. He was out of line. Maybe his darkness is for the crimes of his countries former colonial masters. I can understand the hatred because of this yet, it does not advance our quest to be closer to the truth!
Northwest Resident on Thu, 6th Feb 2014 5:01 pm
Makati1 and Davy (and whoever) — I don’t believe that in a collapse and total breakdown of society situation that there will be a lot of armed gangs pillaging and looting — except for in the big cities. Reason: No gas, dudes. I ask you, how the f**k are a bunch of mostly fat dudes with their plethora of guns and ammo going to get from point A to point B to do their pillaging and looting IF more than a few city blocks separate those two points? In order to pillage and loot and murder on the scale that Makati1 envisions, the armed and dangerous murdering gangs would have to be organized, determined and of a single mind and purpose — otherwise, they’ll all just shoot each other, end of story. To think that armed gangs are going to be roaming the countryside, walking miles and miles and miles unimpeded to find your little 40-acre spot out in the trees is, uh, not well thought-out to say the least. — Another note. My brother has one of those places way out in the country, with a house perched on a hilltop overlooking all possible approaches. He also happens to have a 50-cal sniper rifle dialed in to hit a bulls eye at a mile. My brother dreams of the day when he can zap a zombie raider or two. And there are LOTS of guys just like him out in the countryside. Sorry, Makati1, your fantasies of Americans murdering each other in one big gun battling orgy is not going to happen. More likely, the hoardes of starving Philippinos will eat you after there are no more snakes or bugs to be found.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 6th Feb 2014 6:02 pm
Makati has a point with certain city blocks in certain cities that are already violent. NR’s point is still valid because these dudes are basically lazy, unhealthy, and lack grey matter. They do not stock up on ammo or fuel. Within a week or two of their shooting and looting orgy things will quiet down. In small towns, rural areas at least around here the cohesion and tradition will deal with outsiders trying to move in and take advantage of neighbors. Unless we have a civil war (possible) we will not see murder and mayhem on a Makati mentioned scale
ghung on Fri, 7th Feb 2014 12:40 am
I’ll cast my vote on the reality that North America produces and exports massive amounts of food, especially grains. Canada exported over 26 million tons of grain in the 2011-2012 season, and agriculture in the US uses less than 2% of total energy. Since the PTB certainly don’t want roving bands of starving people, or food riots, I’m confident these systems will be given priority for fuels and transportation. 25%+ of Canada’s grain exports go to Asia. Not sure what the Japanese and Chinese will do, but North America will have the ability to provide enough calories for most of it’s residents for some time to come, IMO.
Of course, it will be seasonal and there won’t be the variety most people expect, but I doubt anyone will start a revolution because they can’t get fresh blueberries in March, or because there aren’t 150 types of bread in the store. Just-in-time will become obsolete.
Cities will be given priority, and rural areas will become more self-sufficient, exchanging whatever goods they can produce for staples that they don’t. I’m betting the folks in the Appalachians will still be able to sell their ginseng to the Chinese for a long time, just as silk, spices and cocoa managed to make its way around the world 200 years ago.
Get out of the ‘burbs in most areas. Not dense enough to be efficient, and too dense to be anywhere near self-sufficient. Most suburbs will be jungles. JMO…
ghung on Fri, 7th Feb 2014 1:02 am
Correction to the above: Canada exported over 32 million tons of grain and wheat flour, 2011-2012.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 7th Feb 2014 2:37 am
ghung, lets hope the climate cooperates with your projections
ghung on Fri, 7th Feb 2014 3:02 am
Davy – That’s why I pointed out that North America has so much over-capacity. I expect that the effects of climate change will be unevenly distributed. Of course, if things play out like Guy McPherson expects, this whole discussion is pointless, eh?
I’m not bargaining since I’m making my own plans building in redundancy and figuring out how to do less with less 😉