Americans Driving Down Their Driving Miles

We may be witnessing a historic change in our driving habits.

Americans love their cars and love to drive their cars. With each American traveling on average less than 10,000 miles a year and the country as a whole nearly three trillion total vehicle miles traveled per year (VMT), we are hands down the champs at racking up the miles. But of late, something remarkable and, for many, unexpected has been happening. It’s not so much that our automobile love affair has ended, rather that maybe, just maybe, it’s not quite as hot and heavy as it has been. (See related story: “U.S. Teenagers Are Driving Much Less: Four Theories About Why.”)

Driving Habits Switching Directions

And what is the evidence for this cooling of the passion between American drivers and their wheels?

Exhibit A is the graphic below showing U.S. data for total miles travelled and VMT per capita from 1988 to the present. Exhibit B is a similar plot from 1977 to 2003.

Exhibit A. Generated using data from the Federal Highway Administration’s Traffic Volume Report, October 2013 and U.S. population data from here.

Exhibit B: Highway Traffic Data. (Source: Federal Highway Administration)

Together, these two graphs provide a record of Americans’ driving habits over a quarter century. And the story they tell is remarkable. Between 1977 and about 2004, VMT and VMT per capita rose steadily at a rate of about 2.7 and 1.5 percent per year respectively. There were some minor reversals in the trend: for four years during the late ‘70s and early ‘80s, a slice of time that saw the oil shock and accompanying recession, VMT noticeably dipped; the impacts of the smaller recessions of 1990 and 2001 can also be discerned. But with those three exceptions, the trend in vehicle miles traveled during the 25-year period preceding 2003 was upward and pretty steeply upward.

And then something happened. Starting in about 2004, the growth in VMT slowed and VMT per capita essentially went flat. (See Exhibit A.) In 2006, VMT per capita began falling, and in 2008, when the great recession hit, VMT also took a hit. Since 2009, VMT has been essentially flat, bouncing up a bit one year and then down the next, while VMT per capita has continued to fall. (See related photos: “Cars That Fired Our Love-Hate Relationship With Fuel.”)

Clearly, the pattern we’ve seen since around 2004 is fundamentally different from the pattern of the 20+ previous years. The question is why.

Is It the Economy, Stupid?

One potential explanation is that people are simply responding to economic pressure — with a down economy and unemployment up, people drive less. And, historically, people have tended to drive less during recessions.*

But I don’t think we’re seeing a driver response to hard economic times. For one, the slowdown in the rise in VMT and the fall in VMT per capita began well before the great recession. Second, take a look at this New York Times graphic plotting VMT and gross domestic product (GDP) over a 50-year span through 2010. Over the first 35 years, VMT and GDP tracked each other year after year. Then around 1997, the GDP and VMT lines begin to diverge with GDP increasing more rapidly then VMT. To me this is rather convincing evidence that something more fundamental is going on — an unprecedented decoupling of American driving habits and macroeconomic forces.

(By the way, another thing that has been going on of late is that fuel economy has been increasing and electric vehicle sales have been climbing – see yesterday’s post — and all these things working together are really having an impact on emissions.)

Could It Be Pain at the Pump?

The economy writ large may not explain the change in VMT, but a specific economic factor could. A likely candidate: the price of gasoline. In support of that theory, I present Exhibit C — a plot of VMT and gasoline prices since 1970. Two things to note:

1. In inflation-adjusted dollars, the price of gasoline since 2008 (~$2.90/gallon in 2005 $s) is higher than it has ever been; and
2. Prices began climbing to this level at about the same time that VMT began to level off.

Sources: Travel data are from the Federal Highway Administration. Gas price data, which are in real 2005$ adjusted for inflation, are from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 1970-1975 prices are for leaded regular gas, 1991-2011 prices are for unleaded regular gas, and 1976-1990 prices are the average of both leaded and unleaded gasoline.

One interpretation: we have hit a price threshold; a price so high that people are forced to find alternative ways to get where they need to go. If this is the case, here again, what we are seeing may not be a permanent change in American driving habits; should gasoline prices fall, VMT will probably start moving upward.

But there is another possibility.

It May Be That We Are Changing

Another possibility (not mutually exclusive of the above) is that Americans are changing, finding new lifestyles that require less driving. For example, people are choosing to move from the outer suburbs to more centrally located, cars-not-needed urban areas; young folks are eschewing driving; more socializing and business travel are taking place virtually, and an aging population simply drives less. (See related story: “Driving the Limit: Wealthy Nations Maxed Out on Travel?“)

High gasoline prices might be forcing some of these changes on us to some extent, but the new trend in VMT illuminates a picture in which the change in driving habits is becoming internalized and may be becoming long-term. (See quiz: “What You Don’t Know About Gas Prices.”)

And on that note, here’s an interesting thought: with both U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and VMT running flat since 2008, it could be that we are seeing a profound change in the United States. A change in the American way of life that is less bent on both consumption and driving. And a way of life ready to embrace a low-carbon economy. Now there’s a nice idea for the New Year. (See related photos: “Rare Look Inside Carmakers’ Drive for 55 MPG.”)

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End Note

* Keep in mind that while recessions and miles traveled correlate well, this doesn’t tell us what initiated these recessions. Both recessions from the ’70s began with oil shocks where the supply of petroleum was curtailed and prices rose sharply.  And even the smaller recessions in 1990 and 2001 were preceded by an increase in energy prices.

15 Comments on "Americans Driving Down Their Driving Miles"

rollin on Tue, 21st Jan 2014 12:50 pm 



Let’s look at the factors. An aging population, a long term recession with a recovery that is actually below inflation, 25% of the population near or below the poverty level, gasoline prices increased 300 percent, lots of young people with low paying or no jobs, a slowing of population growth and a fear of the future. Also a general downgrading of salaries in many areas and increasing cost of owning cars.

No reason to drive less here. Or maybe it’s the internet that did it.

Meld on Tue, 21st Jan 2014 1:25 pm 



Weird. someone should come up with a name for this phenomenon… it seems miles traveled has peaked due to the cost of energy… Don’t know what to call it but I’m pretty sure it should have peak in the title

Makati1 on Tue, 21st Jan 2014 1:55 pm 



Too little income and too much debt = less driving, and I do not have a degree in economics.

Northwest Resident on Tue, 21st Jan 2014 4:07 pm 



It doesn’t take a genius to figure out why Americans are driving less these days. And it doesn’t take a genius to do some simple “mathematical” projections and figure out that as we head into the energy-deprived and jobless low-wage future that there will be even less driving.

The world economy is like a giant machine that crawls along and sucks up natural resources, spewing out gadgets and waste along the way. That machine works great as long as there is plenty of oil to lubricate and fuel it. But these days, the fuel is running short and the lubrication is insufficient — the machine is creaking to a halt slowly but surely, and will eventually freeze up entirely. Lower wages and no jobs result in lower demand for fuel and lubrication, which gives the machine more, for a while. A short while.

Kenz300 on Tue, 21st Jan 2014 4:29 pm 



Bicycle sales are up…….. bicycle rentals are up…..

Walk, take a bike ride or use mass transit. It is safer, cheaper and healthier…………….

Plantagenet on Tue, 21st Jan 2014 4:31 pm 



Good idea. People without jobs have lots of time for bike rides and it will help them feel better about being unemployed too!

rockman on Tue, 21st Jan 2014 7:03 pm 



And how’s the rest of the world doing: in 2010 auto production globally increased 26% from 2009. Fortunately production only increased about 3%- 5% in the last two years. Unfortunately in 2012 China produced almost twice as many vehicles (19.3 million) as did the US.

Around the world, there were about 806 million cars and light trucks on the road in 2007, consuming over 260 billion US gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel yearly. The automobile is a primary mode of transportation for many developed economies. The Detroit branch of Boston Consulting Group predicts that, by 2014, one-third of world demand will be in the four BRIC markets (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Other potentially powerful automotive markets are Iran and Indonesia. Emerging auto markets already buy more cars than established markets. According to a J.D. Power study, emerging markets accounted for 51 percent of the global light-vehicle sales in 2010. The study expects this trend to accelerate.

Good to know that the motor fuel Americans aren’t using is just sitting in some storage tank collecting dust. LOL

DC on Tue, 21st Jan 2014 7:48 pm 



I am curious, what kind of amerikan ‘loves’ cars, and ‘loves’ driving them? To where? To Wallmart?, Costco?, Best-buy? Cars dont love you back, nor do the corrupt US corporations that make them. Love has zero to do with the act of driving.

Even NatGeo is pumping the ‘efficiency’ lie. Explain Nat-geo, how does the miniscule # of EVs in the US, or mythical improvements in US ‘efficiency’ relate to less miles traveled?

Lets do a simple experiment. Amerikan sells there proudly made GM trash can that gets 7 MpG with a bleeding edge piece of amerikan know-how that gets, lets say, 15 mpg. Amerikan needs to drive 40 miles a day round trip(still has a job). He is know twice as ‘efficient’ (lol) as he was before. How does this translate to less VMT. Hint: its doesnt. ‘Efficiency’ nor EVs have anything to do with less travel.

High gas prices? LOL!? Seriously? Natgeo should know amerikans have long been sheltered from the true cost of gaz-o-leen and its costs are heavily subsidized. Amerikans have long had the lowest gas prices (retail) of all OECD nations. Sure they have climbed recently, but gas is still dirt cheap in the US empire, and nowhere near what it should be.

Nor do those amerikan car-free urban areas exist. ALL amerikan cities, center or suburb are designed for cars. Sure a few urban hipsters and the working urban poor dont have or need cars, but they are tiny sliver of the entire population. Or if your poor, official statistics just ignore your lack of car-edness. Nor are teenagers\younger people tweeting over commuting. Another urban\internet meme. They are not going anywhere because the road network is saturated, there is no place in amerika worth going *to* anymore and most importantly, they are either A) broke, or B) up to their eyeballs in state-sanctioned free-market debt.

So really Natgeo, Whats Love go to do with it? With any of it?

Northwest Resident on Tue, 21st Jan 2014 8:07 pm 



DC, a lot of Americans would argue that their cars DO love them back — just like their horses did from years past. The American “love affair” with cars has been a long and illustrious one. It is part of the American culture. It started out innocently enough, but we all see what it has become, and where it is going.

Yes, we do have a lot of wasteful “AmericKans” who drive four wheel double-axle gas guzzlers back and forth to work and to the store — sure, it is S-T-U-P-I-D, but hey, they were raised to be that way. Even Jesus said “forgive them for they know not what they do”. Given the opportunity and the resources, there are plenty of stupid people in every single populated square mile of planet earth who would do the same thing. Your contant usage of the term “AmeriKans” is a little on the insulting and disparaging side — but I’m sure you intend it that way. We aren’t all “AmeriKans” — I’m sure you realize that. If I knew your nationality, I’m sure I could make up an equally insulting moniker to use — but I wouldn’t do that, and I wish you didn’t either.

DC on Tue, 21st Jan 2014 9:05 pm 



If you dont mind, I would like to amend tyour ‘long and illustrious’ description to the more accurate, long and illusory. That illusion is the result of a multi-generational campaign by oil and automotive interests to convince amerikans that the gas-powered moblie garbage can was the ultimate in modernity. Love is to cars what love is to prostitution. Sorry

However, I find another of your comparisons equally revealing. The horse analogy. I dont know if you are aware, but when horses were the dominant form of urban transport they were quite literally worked to death. When delivery\carriage horses died in US cities, they were often just left to rot where they fell. IoW, they were treated as a disposable commodity\life-form. Fit to serve amerikans until they dropped dead from overwork and abuse. I have no doubt some people actually cared for their horses and treated them well, but in big US cities, and probably many smaller ones besides, they were simply a tool. You see, your people didn’t ‘love’ their horses anymore than people now think they love their cars. Unless things like traffic deaths, endless noise, air water and land pollution, pancake urban sprawl, wars-for-oil and endless public subsidies for oil and auto corporations are considered expressions of ‘love’ in the amerikan empire, then no. I cant agree with that…

Meld on Tue, 21st Jan 2014 9:08 pm 



@Northwest resident – I absolutely love that imagery of the giant creeping machine you just pumped into my head, I have this steam punk vision with millions of little beings jumping about on it trying to keep it going as it rolls through the forests and seas and leaves desolation in its wake. That’s going in next time I’m teaching the kids at my scouts and youth club about sustainability.`

DC on Tue, 21st Jan 2014 9:10 pm 



Edit:Sorry meant to include this link in above

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/when-horses-posed-a-public-health-hazard/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

inorbitt on Tue, 21st Jan 2014 11:47 pm 



Peak Car is not just happening in America but all over the Western World. The biggest drops have been seen in the large metros, London, NYC, Paris etc.

It is also generational, big drops in the 17 – 25 group, but small increases in 60+ and almost no change in 45 – 60. Women overall are driving slightly more, especially middle aged women, while overall men driving less.

Reasons are not exactly known but possibly include cars not being as core to being cool as they once were for the internet / smart-phone generation, more expensive relative to disposable income for a younger generation (high unemployment, high gas prices etc.), public transport improvements.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_car

Kenz300 on Wed, 22nd Jan 2014 12:28 am 



There is a limit as to how many cars you can cram on to a city center…………. at some point the traffic jams become parking lots.

mo on Wed, 22nd Jan 2014 2:05 pm 



DC. Just 2 questions. What part of the world are you from, and why do you hate’ Americans so much?