Peak Oil is You
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Page added on January 10, 2014
A Future for the Rest of Us
A Guest Post by Bill Hays
Editor’s Note: Part 11 of this series discussed the concept of peak oil and our transportation system’s dependency on cheap and abundant energy. Part 2 explored some of the non-oil constraints on the future transport system of the US. Here Part 3 Outlines some of the options we have going forward.
Our Options for a Viable Future
If crude oil is in fact becoming more expensive and difficult to obtain both within our borders and on the international market, what options do we have and what future can we anticipate? Our choices may be limited, but choices (and solutions) do exist:
- Reduce the number and length of the vehicle trips we are making. This is already the choice for a significant number of Americans. Since 2007 the vehicle miles of travel, field-measured at permanent count stations nationwide, have been dropping across nearly all roadway classifications in both rural and urban areas. Long distance trips (100 miles or longer round-trip) make up only two percent of person trips, but they represent 29 percent of the total distance a person travels (1).
- Improve energy efficiencies in all areas, not just in transportation. Reducing electricity demand for buildings, for example, lowers overhead expenses for businesses, as well as making electricity more affordable for others. Any improvement in energy efficiency makes a small positive contribution to the overall economy. Improvements in transportation efficiencies enable consumers to have more disposable income available. Efficiency and conservation of energy offer a rapid and continuing return on investment and may be the most important near term action available to most people.
- Transition to alternative energy sources unrelated to carbon. As important as making more effective use of crude oil products may be, the longer term goal clearly involves use of alternative fuels, primarily electricity from solar and, where practical, wind or other sources. Transition, though, is not simply substitution; the actual total amount of energy used in transportation (including production of equipment) must be dramatically reduced. The capital cost of substituting an equal amount of alternative energy for that of crude oil is neither affordable nor sustainable.
- Plan, design, and construct a complimentary network of urban and intercity public surface transportation systems (bus, rail, and intercity trolley) operating on electricity and offering convenient intermodal transfers. A significant number of urban areas in the United States already are planning, designing, and constructing core networks of efficient public transportation systems offering high levels of service. While the technologies vary from commuter rail to bus rapid transit, the essential concept involves attractive and functional neighborhood stations offering a mix of residential, commercial, institutional, and public land uses within walking distance. These core networks will form the new urban arteries of the 21st Century.
The ideal urban rapid transit line on an arterial roadway would offer platform-level boarding at enhanced, permanent shelters spaced about a half mile apart. Service would be very frequent and offer convenient transfers along to the route both to other rapid transit lines and to neighborhood “circulators.” The areas surrounding each station would be oriented to transit use, with high density, mixed use development, easy walking, and limited automobile traffic or parking. - Rearrange our land use patterns to reduce the need for travel. The first casualty of higher oil prices beginning in 2005 was the traditional hundred-lot subdivision at the fringe of an urban area. Such places simply have no long-term future, and the units will be stripped of copper long before they are finally razed and the land returned to agricultural use. New development patterns already presage a pattern around future rapid transit stations or in gentrified neighborhoods close to workplaces and urban amenities. The concept of a 30-mile commute will become limited to a select number of higher-wage individuals.
- Leverage our advanced computer and communications technologies both to substitute for physical travel and to assist in negotiating the available transportation system of the future. Smartphone applications enable riders to know when a bus or train is due, and new applications will schedule a personal transport vehicle to arrive (without a driver) at a designated place and time. The current Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) protocols and the emerging Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communications systems provide the foundation. The emergence of information technology will be as important to the 21st Century as crude oil was to the 20th Century.
- Construct a 21th Century interstate transportation system consisting of fixed guide ways providing high(er) surface speeds than roadways; these guide-ways would provide stations about every twenty-five miles and interfacing with commercial airports (to be renamed travel ports) (2). The most recent high speed rail studies sponsored by the United States Department of Transportation consistently provide connections to airports, where parking, baggage handling, security, and retail amenities are already in place and secured by long term municipal bonds.
HSR-Network_small.gif1000x677 | 188 KBThose rail connections will leverage the existing public investment while freeing airlines from the expensive sub-500 mile routes. The new high-speed rails may use the rights of way of the existing Interstate System, or agreements may be reached with Class I railroads to operate their existing, upgraded track corridors. The project will take decades to complete, but it will be as defining for this century as the asphalt Interstate system was for the last century (3).
- Encourage electric-powered freight movement on arterials with grid-supplied power in central portions of urban areas. Freight and goods movement uses 30 percent of the total amount of transportation fuels, yet it is frequently an afterthought. Operating “right-sized” trucks on an urban electric grid can secure the essential supply chain to get goods to the individual “urban villages” surrounding rapid transit stations (4). That same grid can offer power for other vehicles, including public service equipment. Interstate freight will become more dependent on rail and waterways, with trucks providing the critical “last mile” linkage.
AM2050cargo_small.gif1000x741 | 238 KB
- Focus remaining roadway maintenance and improvement on strategic roadways, including state primary and secondary routes critical to rural America. Those three in ten Americans not living in urban areas will depend on the network of highways first established in 1921, a web of roadways connecting county seats (and agricultural producers) with urban centers. Those rural and small town residents may see the return of an occasional commercial bus, but most will share personal vehicles to reach nearby communities. Preservation of those roadways cannot be forgotten.
Each of these options is controversial. The urge is strong to ignore the problem, hope that “they will come up with something,” anticipate some imminent discovery that will postpone the need for change, imagine an opaque conspiracy to prevent us from finding more oil, or just call for someone, somewhere to invest in a rapid assembly of nuclear plants, solar power, wind farms, or whatever substitute one anticipates for the massive scale of oil-base energy. For the rest of us, however, these nine options will surely be on the list we consider in our near future.
Many more issues remain, from the future of airlines to long haul trucking to the support of agriculture and tourism. The nine points above are not exhaustive, and they require much more consideration than this brief introduction. The challenge of an energy-constrained future requires some sense of what will matter, and this is one of many possible perspectives on what that future may include.
Join the discussion and tell what your future includes.
21 Comments on "A Future for the Rest of Us"
rollin on Fri, 10th Jan 2014 10:17 pm
I agree that energy needs to be conserved, at least until we actually have viable energy sources that are not so constrained and toxic as fossil fuels.
This is a BAU offshoot dream set. In a truly sustainable world, everything needs to change drastically not just be band-aided and modified. We don’t have the time, materials or energy to waste on half measures or inefficient expensive solutions like high speed rail.
GregT on Fri, 10th Jan 2014 10:17 pm
Very good article, but once again, focused on some semblance of BAU. The assumption that there will still be a viable ‘economy’, complete with goods and services, is not a realistic view of a post oil society.
There may be some good thoughts on a transitional plan here, but nowhere close to the reality of where we are ultimately headed.
J-Gav on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 12:07 am
Number 5 looks like number 1 to me. Lacking a thorough re-organization of land use, we are F’ed.
Kenz300 on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 12:17 am
Quote — “Plan, design, and construct a complimentary network of urban and intercity public surface transportation systems (bus, rail, and intercity trolley) operating on electricity and offering convenient intermodal transfers.”
———————-
It is always good to have more options……..
Cities need to become more people centered and less auto centered.
action on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 12:41 am
10. Reduce population by diverting valuable resources away from the endless void that is the replicating poor and stupid, instead of continuing on the current path of supporting this type of society – sounds harsh but sacrifices now will enable many more to be saved in a better arrangement with more job opportunities and outlets for societal restructuring.
11. Population control through immigration reform.
12. Mandatory IQ requirement and permit for having children.
Dave Thompson on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 1:37 am
This will all come to pass when they pry my cold dead hands from the steering wheel. LOL.
Makati1 on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 1:45 am
This is nothing but capitalist techie dreams. As J-Gav said, #5 is the only one that will happen, and that will be forced by energy shortages. All of the others are highly flawed in one way or another.
The world of 2050 may not even have any humans in the cities and maybe not even on the earth. After all, radiation from all of the nuclear waste we have scattered around the world could easily end life as we know it.
rockman on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 4:49 am
Actually the plans sounds good. Just as good when I heard most it about 35 years ago. Will probably sound even better in another 35 years.
There seems to be an endless supply of solutions. Just wish some of these plans included a viable method of enacting them.
PapaSmurf on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 5:51 am
Unfortunately, there is no energy shortage. There are plenty of hydrocarbons for us to burn.
The real issue is frying the atmosphere because of the massive amounts of energy we can still burn.
Twin Performance on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 8:03 am
Global Warming is a Government Lie.
Arthur on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 9:38 am
I see that TOD sort of resurrected from the grave?
Point 1 and 6 should be swapped for a correct importance ranking. For the rest the usual reasonable recommendations.
Arthur on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 9:39 am
The frozen Niagara Falls were a news item in Holland. Did Al Gore respond to the event?
Kenz300 on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 3:20 pm
Over population makes every problem harder to solve.
We need to start by providing access to family planning services to anyone that wants it.
dashster on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 3:47 pm
@Kenz300 The US overpopulation is exclusively from immigration and births of immigrants since 1976. Family planning will not solve our population growth.
GregT on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 5:36 pm
“The frozen Niagara Falls were a news item in Holland. Did Al Gore respond to the event?”
Arthur,
You really should spend a bit of time getting up to speed on Climate Change. As I have mentioned to you before, Global Warming is so 1990s. There is a reason why the scientific community changed the name. All of the information is out there, for anyone that chooses to pay attention.
Arthur on Sat, 11th Jan 2014 6:33 pm
Greg,
My attitude is that there is nothing we can do about GW/CC, if any, other than build a new renewable energy infrastructure as fast as we can. And that is happening at the moment, at least in Europe.
edboyle on Sun, 12th Jan 2014 5:48 pm
In Europe anecdotally good fast trains at 300 mph and better gas mileage but everybody has a car to go the two blocks to the store so who is really smart here? People used to be so small town even in a big city. Then they built big subways so that people get everywhere and are expected to live, work and get around in the whole metro area unless lucky enough to get a job within a few miles. Really old people in nursiong homes say they never left their neighbourhood. The economy and expectations changed in transport just like with using internet and mobile devices to be in permanent contact. People expect to take long-distance vacations in trains, cars and planes annually too and to say nothing of the globally sourced goods we eat and wear, etc. A lack of energy will just mean locally sourced life will return and then seasonal food and local based jobs to make clothes and fix shoes and make machines for local use will reappear. No more 24 hour hotline to English speaking people somwhere on earth (India, etc.) on a 0800-service line. No more 1000 channels with nothing on.
Evweryone said all of this in the early PO days. It bears keeping in mind by maybe reading old detective novels or simple stories from pre 1950s or talking to still not seniule 90 year olds and recording it on tape for the future.
edboyle on Sun, 12th Jan 2014 5:56 pm
In Europe anecdotally good fast trains at 300 mph and better gas mileage but everybody has a car to go the two blocks to the store so who is really smart here? People used to be so small town even in a big city. Then they built big subways so that people get everywhere and are expected to live, work and get around in the whole metro area unless lucky enough to get a job within a few miles. Really old people in nursiong homes say they never left their neighbourhood. The economy and expectations changed in transport just like with using internet and mobile devices to be in permanent contact. People expect to take long-distance vacations in trains, cars and planes annually too and to say nothing of the globally sourced goods we eat and wear, etc. A lack of energy will just mean locally sourced life will return and then seasonal food and local based jobs to make clothes and fix shoes and make machines for local use will reappear. No more 24 hour hotline to English speaking people somwhere on earth (India, etc.) on a 0800-service line. No more 1000 channels with nothing on.
Evweryone said all of this in the early PO days. It bears keeping in mind by maybe reading old detective novels or simple stories from pre 1950s or talking to still not senile 90 year olds and recording it on tape for the future.
J.R. on Sun, 12th Jan 2014 6:15 pm
Good grief. How could the author leave out population? When I read stuff like this, I just shame my head. It means that their thinking is seriously flawed and therefore their “analysis” of the problem and root causes.
Let’s cut population down to 1 billion. Now THAT would make the most sense of all.
Then all of our “planning” on everything will make real sense, versus continued failure to address the only real and important issue – too many people consuming too many resources, particularly here in Amerika.
James on Sun, 12th Jan 2014 11:51 pm
With regards to the railroad plans. We had a better system back in the 50s – 60s.
We just let it all go to pot as we started using the Interstate system and aircraft. There was nothing wrong with the system that they couldn’t upgrade it. Now, they want to spend money building a system that just serves the Elite Eastern coast and West coast, forget about the needs of Mid-America. The old system did serve Mid-America very well. If there wasn’t a train going where you needed to go, bus was the way to get there.
Bob Owens on Mon, 13th Jan 2014 10:46 pm
How about taking action right now? Everyone reading this should reduce their speed on the Interstate system by 5 mph. If the limit is 70 set the cruise control on 65. Yes, that’s right! Do something by yourself, now! Guess what, you will feel better about yourself and will have accomplished more than all the grand plans being generated on planet Earth!