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Page added on January 9, 2014
Peak Oil: Clear As Mud
The U.S. will surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s top oil producer by 2015, and be close to energy self-sufficiency in the next two decades, amid booming output from shale formations, the IEA said. (links in original) [1]
The International Energy Agency has sounded the alarm about a potential oil supply crunch…. (links in original) [2]
The boom in oil from shale formations in recent years has generated a lot of discussion that the United States could eventually return to energy self-sufficiency, but according to a report released Tuesday by the International Energy Agency, production of such oil in the United States and worldwide will provide only a temporary respite from reliance on the Middle East. [3]
[A]n analysis of a few key global oil production factors exposes the unstable foundation upon which hopes for North American oil independence are built. [4]
CRYSTAL CLEAR EXCEPT FOR THE MUD
That clears it all up! We have no more concerns about future supplies of oil except for all the concerns that we do.
As is by now all-too familiar in discussions about the supply of fossil fuels in years to come, what you believe depends on what you choose to believe. All good and well, human nature being what it is (“Man seems psychologically hardwired to prefer good news to bad,” as Daniel Davis and Jeremy Leggett observed in the Huffington Post article cited above).
But facts and geology are annoying in that their existence, impact, and ramifications aren’t swayed by emotions and preferences and denials. That sucks, of course, but there’s no getting around the truth. Postponing it is an option, but that tactic has a limited shelf-life when dealing with resources which likewise have a limited shelf-life. Changing the meaning of “finite” is another consideration, but….
So who and what to believe?
GONE, JUST LIKE THAT
Just as quickly as readers and industry cheerleaders may have seized on the opening line of the first quote mentioned above as proof positive that our energy worries remain figments of peak oil’s doom-and-gloomers’ imaginations, the realities of conventional and unconventional oil production slapped that feel-good moment down. Facts continue to screw up the happy-talk stories, and it’s way past annoying at this point!
The IEA, a leading international advisory group to oil-producing nations, has now once again gone on record with forecasts for increasing U.S. oil production in the years ahead—largely if not exclusively due to the recent uptick resulting from hydraulic fracturing technology applied to tight oil formations in North Dakota and Texas. The IEA has likewise predicted a decline in production by both Russia and Saudi Arabia. That’s rarely good news.
But as the Grant Smith article noted midway through, exuberance and feel-goodism likewise have short shelf-lives. The often-quoted chief economist for the IEA, Fatih Birol, offered this take on the U.S. production rise:
‘We do not expect this trend will continue after 2020s….It will come to a plateau and decline as a result of the limited resource base of light tight oil.
Damn! This close to a fairy-tale ending….
If that was enough cold water to toss onto the Happy Talk story, in the second article quoted from above, Mr. Birol also noted that shale resources glowingly-referenced by fossil fuel industry cheerleaders as the production answer to oil supply prayers are “a surge, rather than revolution.” So much for crossing energy supply concerns off the United States’ list of challenges.
The Matthew Wald article referenced above also quotes the IEA’s executive director, Maria van der Hoeven on the same topic:
‘There is a huge growth in light tight oil, that it will peak around 2020, and then it will plateau’
She then offered an important additional observation, echoed by others, that the shale formations which the oil industry is now feverishly working to extract here in the U.S. carry some additional caveats when discussing their long-term impact:
‘Light tight oil is not low-cost oil.’
Industry execs don’t mind that fact. Consumers, on the other hand, aren’t nearly as thrilled. Facts still suck, but they matter.
More on this next week.
11 Comments on "Peak Oil: Clear As Mud"
rollin on Thu, 9th Jan 2014 3:20 pm
Doubling the mpg of vehicles and applying a few conservation practices would make the US energy independent in a short time, at least for a few years.
It would also lessen the impact of future oil production declines.
So why are we not pursuing the simple cures on a massive scale?
Northwest Resident on Thu, 9th Jan 2014 3:34 pm
This article highlights a basic reality in the world today. That is, there are two directly opposing narratives being generated for consumption by the masses. One of those narratives is that “all is well”, BAU will continue into the distant future with plenty of oil to keep us going and don’t worry because technology will solve all our problems anyway. The other narrative is that “we are rapidly approaching the end of the world as we have known it”, that we will soon find ourselves in a global economy that is shrinking and undergoing massive convulsions due to lack of sufficient fossil fuel energy input. One narrative is fantasy-based and meant to pacify the teaming masses. The other narrative is fact-based and meant to inform and caution the small slice of the population who are able to see the forest through the trees.
J-Gav on Thu, 9th Jan 2014 4:53 pm
Northwest – Good overview! To which I might add a psychological component that, unfortunately, will probably keep the two narratives on hostile terms for the foreseeable future. Fear of change, cognitive dissidence and confirmation bias on the part of the cornucopians will be hard to overcome.
Meld on Thu, 9th Jan 2014 6:51 pm
@Northwest resident – Both narratives are fantasy, one for the people who like life how it is and want it to continue and the other for people who despise modern life and want it to end as soon as possible. The true narrative runs in the middle as always.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 9th Jan 2014 7:53 pm
Meld, The Joint Operating Environment of 2010 — published by top military strategic planners — envisions a “shortfall” in oil production in 2015, which is described as a dire situation where military forces may need to be deployed to in America to assist and backup local enforcement agencies. Police are militarizing in America. The NSA is locking down the electronic communications. THEY are getting ready for what is described as “narrative number two”. Embrace the horror, Meld, or stick with your semi-fantasy of “somewhere in the middle”. Your choice.
dsula on Thu, 9th Jan 2014 8:34 pm
The true narrative runs in the middle as always. That’s true.
Meld on Thu, 9th Jan 2014 9:06 pm
@Northwest resident – Military forces will almost certainly be deployed in certain areas, rations will be enforced, 3 days weeks will ensue, hospitals will crowd over and close, the young and old will become more vulnerable . But people will moan and then accept it because they will still be living a better life than the 99% of other humans that have existed throughout history. Humans adapt and just pretend that everything is getting better. We are already in a slow collapse scenario everywhere you look, but the new phones, Tvs, tablets and games consoles keep the illusion of progress on track. The rich will get much richer and the pour and middle class will get very poor. Our grandkids will wake up in a neofeudal system where Bill gates’ grandkids kids fight it out with the zuckberg family line. Which side will you choose 😉
Northwest Resident on Thu, 9th Jan 2014 9:20 pm
Meld — In answer to your question, the winning side, of course! Now I see what you mean by middle of the road — the “middle of the road” scenario you describe may end up being not far from what happens, but it will only be a plateau at best, beyond which worsening collapse scenarios lie in wait. But my own point of view is that once economic contraction hits hard the first time, faith and trust will vanish instantly, to be replaced by wide-spread panic, dread and dog-eat-dog mentality. And I’m an optimist! 🙂
Meld on Thu, 9th Jan 2014 9:45 pm
@Northwest Resident – You may be right about the panic and Nihilism. It might be a good idea to get involved with a local religion (and I say that as an atheist) I have begun training as a druid and hope to have started some kind of grove within the next 5 years with like minded people.
Why is religion a good idea you might say? well effectively it gives everyone practising it hope and a simple strong (mostly)moral narrative. The tecno-utopianists are going to be a f*cking scary bunch when the soft glow of their phones fade and flicker for the last time. They will be without meaning and more importantly without distraction.
I encourage all atheists to get involved with religion as quickly as possible, they don’t have to know you’re faking it 😀
Northwest Resident on Thu, 9th Jan 2014 10:28 pm
My religion is Mossberg 500 — the “double odd buck” denomination. Unlike most religions, when I “pray”, I don’t do so silently. And unlike most religions, when I “pray”, I get instant and expected results.
But seriously…
Another good reason to join up with a religion and pretend to “be one of them” is because then you’ve got an instant built-in support group. That’s good, but also potentially bad. What happens if one or more members of the “church” happen to not have prepared as well as you did, and now they are leaning on you along with others for “support”. Time to renounce your faith? Like my brother says, today’s best friend may end up being tomorrow’s blood-sucking zombie, so choose carefully…
Overall, it looks like we’re on the same wavelength, Meld. I’ll look forward to your future posts here.
rockman on Fri, 10th Jan 2014 3:09 pm
As cold blooded as it may sound I have to go along with my NWR bud: The folks that can get thru bad times on their own are very few. Communities can be the answer. The question is what community (i.e. religion) do you align yourself with? Obviously that depends where you are and what’s available. The Catholic religion have a proven supportive structure. So does the Muslim religion. As well as the religion of the US Marines. Different gods but the same goals. In Texas we have a lot of members of another tight knit religion: rural well-armed deer hunters. In Houston we’re dominated by the religion of the “I’ll lock my door, avoid talking to my neighbors and hope nothing happens to me in my unarmed home” religion.
The simple answer: pick your “religious” community carefully.