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Page added on January 6, 2014
Fearless Oil & Gas-Related Predictions for 2014
Well, it’s the end of the year 2013, and everyone and his or her brother is busy compiling a Top Ten Something-or-Other (take your pick: movies, songs, celebrity faux pas, football players, baseball players, basketball dunks, Miley Cyrus embarrassments, etc.) list for 2013.
Turns out I’m too lazy to compile my own Top Ten Energy Stories for 2013, because that would require going back through a year’s worth of stories and doing a bunch of time-consuming research. I figured instead I’d compile my own list of Fearless Oil & Gas-Related Predictions for 2014, since I can just make those up off the top of my head, throw ‘em against the wall, and see which, if any of them, stick.
So, here goes nothing:
Prediction #1: Every day during 2014, an earthquake will take place somewhere on the face of the earth. And every day, no matter where the quake occurs, no matter how remote its epicenter happens to be from the nearest oil and gas drill site, an activist will blame it on “Fracking”, and the allegation will be parroted verbatim by multiple media outlets.
Prediction #2: In January, congress will agree to renew the Wind Production Tax Credit, and Grist.org, Salon.com and/or the Huffington Post will publish pieces celebrating the act.
Prediction #3: In December, when congress once again drags its feet in renewing the Wind Production Tax Credit, Grist.org, Salon.com and/or the Huffington Post will publish pieces predicting the world as we know it will come to an end if the credit is not renewed.
Prediction #4: New York Governor Andrew Cuomo will make it through another year without making any decision related to allowing hydraulic fracturing in the rich Marcellus Shale that underlies the southwestern third of his state, thus denying property rights to land and mineral owners throughout the region. This is called ‘leadership’.
Prediction #5: President Barack Obama will do his best Andrew Cuomo imitation, and make it through yet another year without rendering a final decision on allowing the northern leg of the Keystone XL Pipeline to be built. Canadian oil sands oil that would otherwise be transported by Keystone XL will continue to make its way to market via rail and other pipelines anyway, so the President’s refusal to act will continue to accomplish nothing of any significance at all.
Prediction #6: Interested stakeholders will engage in a spirited debate throughout 2014 over whether the federal government should finally lift 1970s-era restrictions on the export of U.S. crude oil. At year’s end, congress will have done exactly nothing on the issue, although some loosening of administrative restrictions at the Commerce Department will likely have taken place. No one engaged in the debate will be happy.
Prediction #7: Overall U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide will continue to drop, as natural gas continues to displace coal in the nation’s power generation mix. All of this will happen without having to resort to tying the nation’s hands via a global treaty, and without having to resort to soviet-style command-and-control regulation by the EPA. Anti-fossil fuels activists and EPA bureaucrats will do everything in their power to ignore this happy development for the nation.
Prediction #8: Advances in technology and improvements in well-completion techniques will result in steadily-increasing expected ultimate recovery rates for shale oil and gas wells all over the world during 2014. Advocates of Peak Oil Theory will continue to ignore this enduring reality of the oil and gas business when making their doomsday pronouncements from on high.
Prediction #8-A: “Peak Oil” will not arrive in 2014.
Prediction #9: Colorado will continue to be ‘ground zero’ for anti-Fracking activists throughout 2014. The industry will become more effective at countering their efforts as the year progresses, and oil and gas wells will continue to be drilled in the state.
Prediction #10: Gasoline prices will go up in the spring, as EPA regulations requiring refiners to start making a wide variety of “summer blends” kick in. Anti-oil and gas members of congress will call for hearings on allegations of “price fixing”. Gasoline prices will ease in the fall, as refiners are allowed by EPA regulations to stop making “summer blends”. No members of congress will call for hearings as the prices at the pump go down. (Ok, this one’s too easy, since it happens every year.)
Prediction #11: C- and D-list celebrities desperate for attention will continue to issue really dumb, fact-devoid statements and appear in sophomoric advertisements in opposition to “fracking”. (Ok, this one’s too easy, too, but I had to throw it in.)
Prediction #12: The U.S. oil and gas industry will continue its role in creating and supporting millions of well-paying jobs, creating hundreds of billions of dollars in economic impact, paying billions of dollars in state, local and federal taxes and royalties, and being the main driver of this country’s economy throughout 2014.
Happy New Year, America.
10 Comments on "Fearless Oil & Gas-Related Predictions for 2014"
GregT on Mon, 6th Jan 2014 2:20 am
Prediction # 13: Forbes will continue to promote BAU, until it is far too late to save our sorry asses.
robertinget on Mon, 6th Jan 2014 3:13 am
Before I began posting here I had to go up against bitchier, less amusing, more sarcastic, classic sell-out guys like Steve Forbes.
It was great training, but depressing.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 6th Jan 2014 3:23 am
Prediction #8 (summarized): Shale Oil will cover our energy needs for 2014 — no problem. Technology will solve all our energy problems.
Take away: Ignore the peak oil and fracking doomsters. Don’t worry. Keep your money invested in shale oil stocks — nothing to worry about in 2014, nothing at all.
This article reminds me of the farmer who pets and soothes his little herd of sheep as he leads them through the gate and into the slaughterhouse.
Dave Thompson on Mon, 6th Jan 2014 3:50 am
The tone of this article is for the general masses of people that want everything to go on as if there were no problems with exploiting our finite planet into oblivion.
Arthur on Mon, 6th Jan 2014 8:42 am
The author David Blackman predicts that peak oil will not occur in 2014 and is right about that. But at the same time he refuses to estimate or even guess when PO IS going to happen. It is all short term thinking. It is like David jumping from the 110 stories WTC and while passing the 50th floor texts to his wife how wonderfull everything still is.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 6th Jan 2014 4:28 pm
“A society built on lies cannot endure but America is doubly dammed because the zeitgeist is that only a tiny few are aware that lies have become the true lifeblood of the land. America lives in fantasy. Lies and fantasy have become essential to keeping the social fabric from unraveling and we have learned to worship those who lie best.”
That’s a quote from K-Dog, a commenter on Kunstler’s site (maybe even Kunstler himself…).
This Forbes article is a prime example of the lies that K-Dog is talking about. The lies are not random or haphazard, or conceived of by individuals operating in a vacuum. They are well-orchestrated lies, developed in concert with other lies to implement a strategy of lying to achieve pre-determined goals. There is a purpose, a driving center of energy and intellect from which these lies are conceived.
Ralph on Mon, 6th Jan 2014 4:30 pm
Hard to disagree with any of the above, as they are all so much hot air, except No.s 7 and 8, because US NG prices are already rising, and a return to coal is a dead certainty for electricity within the next year or two, and peak US shale oil is almost certainly global PO (crude and condensate) unless spectacular peace and harmony breaks out in Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Syria, Libya, Nigeria…
rockman on Mon, 6th Jan 2014 6:26 pm
Even supposed supporters can’t get the facts straight: “…another year without rendering a final decision on allowing the northern leg of the Keystone XL Pipeline to be built.” The reality: the northern leg of Keystone XL is currently under construction. The southern leg of Keystone XL (600,000 bopd capacity) has been built and will begin flowing oil to Texas refineries this month. What hasn’t been approved are just those few miles of the border crossing section of KXL. The oil the southern section of KXL will be flowing will come from the Keystone Pipeline that crosses the US border and has been moving 600,000 bopd into the US since 2010. The original completion date of KXL was late 2015 so there won’t be a need for the border crossing permit for at least another year.
Arthur – As I teased you in the other post it depends on what you consider is THE important aspect of the PO dynamic: “But at the same time he refuses to estimate or even guess when PO IS going to happen.” Nor do I bother to waste my time estimating a date for PO. That simplistic statistic is of little relevance to me. What is relevant is that due to the change in the oil supply dynamics brought on by the approach of that global PO date (whatever it actually might be). And that change has the global oil consumers spending $6 TRILLION more per year for oil then they were paying just 10 years or so ago. That is the PO stat I focus on…not some spot on the calendar.
As I’ve preached for some years the date of global PO is no more relevant to me than was the US PO date. Since that date in 1971 oil prices (adjusted for inflation) have gone from $140/bbl to $10/bbl to $145/bbl and today to $95/bbl. Exactly how has the US PO date effected the price we’ve paid for oil? Not at all IMHO. And how is the future date of Global PO affecting the price of oil? In the last dozen years oil prices increased from $30/bbl to $145/bbl to today at $95/bbl. And all this happening with the same PO date in the cards…whatever that date actually might be.
In hindsight many years down the road we might look back and see that GPO happen in July 2XXX. And what will the price of oil that day be? History has already shown it might range from very low to very high depending on how the global economy is doing at that time. Which, again, is why the exact date we hit GPO isn’t very relevant to my view of the possible futures. In 1980 when oil was selling for $35/bbl in the US most were predicting $70+/bbl by the mid 80’s. Instead, thanks to the severe global recession, oil was selling for about $10/bbl by then. The price of oil and the condition of the global economy have never been dependent upon max rate of oil the world was capable of producing. Never has been and never will be IMHO. The relationship is far more complicated than some X on a calendar.
Ted on Mon, 6th Jan 2014 7:12 pm
Yes but if you take away cheap money and how are you going to finance all those wells….if we have deflation and push the price of oil down to $60 a barrel you can close up shop at eagle ford and baakan. They can only lose money for so long and without the FED handouts they are screwed. It really is a tenuous time people who can’t see it don’t want to admit the truth. Ted
physicsnerd on Tue, 7th Jan 2014 5:25 am
To the editors at peakoil.com. Why post such nonsense? Continue to propagate such madness and I will seek my information elsewhere. Ridiculous!