What Peak Oil Means

11 Comments on "What Peak Oil Means"

rockman on Thu, 19th Dec 2013 12:20 pm 



I might have invested some time to watch but: “Predictions for when global oil reserves will run out vary…”. Given that PO has nothing to do with the amount of reserves left in the ground and everything to do with the oil production rate I’ll pass. Starting off with the standard straw man phrase does not bode well IMHO. Maybe he really does understand PO but if this is an indication of his communication skills it’s disappointing to see him taking up any space here. But I’ll let other who watch the vid cast a final word.

J-Gav on Thu, 19th Dec 2013 1:39 pm 



Rock – Your critique of the caption under the video is correct. I watched it, however, and not once did Heinberg use the word “reserves.” He spoke about ‘production,’ so I think he grasps the issue pretty well. On the other hand, whoever wrote the caption needs to pay more attention to subjects they pretend to be interested in …

GregT on Thu, 19th Dec 2013 1:41 pm 



Heinberg nailed it. Except that the economic fallout started in 2008, instead of in 2010, as he predicted. The description of the clip does not describe Heinberg’s views. He does not believe Peak Oil to be a theory, and he does not talk about oil ‘running out’.

Stoney on Thu, 19th Dec 2013 1:42 pm 



I don’t think Heinberg says anything about “oil running out”. It’s not right to judge him by a caption probably written by someone who doesn´t know anything about the issue.

mo on Thu, 19th Dec 2013 1:55 pm 



I think this video is right on, but dated

Dave Thompson on Thu, 19th Dec 2013 2:27 pm 



Peak oil, biosphere destruction, human disregard for our finite mother earth, whatever it is called, the small ones just getting started out will look at what has been wrought and cry, very angry tears.

Ron Patterson on Thu, 19th Dec 2013 3:39 pm 



Is there any new peak oil videos on the net? This one was made sometime during the last decade, likely 2006 or 2007, back when Indonesia was still a member of OPEC. He said some analyst predict a peak in 2010.

I love watching peak oil videos but it would be refreshing to find a new one once in awhile.

rockman on Thu, 19th Dec 2013 5:11 pm 



Thanks J-Gav et al. I was a tad suspicious that the attached text weren’t his words. Now I know. But if Ron is correct it would be great to see him update his presentation. Not that anyone other then us would pay attention to it.

Arthur on Fri, 20th Dec 2013 9:58 am 



Given that PO has nothing to do with the amount of reserves left in the ground and everything to do with the oil production rate I’ll pass.

That’s only true at first glance, since reserves do make a difference as technology can potentially make reserves accessible that were not earlier.

You can’t harvest fossil fuel that is not there, but perhaps you can harvest difficult to exploit fossil fuel later after all with developing technology.

IT, solar and wind are examples of fields of technology where spectacular progress has been achieved in a few decades time.

Heinberg is saying that PO could occur around 2010, so this is an old video. It did not occur in 2010 or 2013, because he completely missed the fracking developments. Now he desperately tries to cling himself to his old stories, or rather the ASPO-2004 stories, that made him big. Maybe it is time that Heinberg concentrates on his violin again.

I love watching peak oil videos but it would be refreshing to find a new one once in awhile.

There aren’t any. Peak oil is very real but not going to happen any time soon, think 2020 at the earliest. Most former PO luminaries have gone into the TOD silent mode. Besides, peak oil is not interesting, interesting is peak fossil, since most fossil sources are interchangeable.

I myself am moving away from the Energy Watch Group scenario (peak fossil 2020) to the camp of Michael Klare’s ‘Third Carbon Age’, with peak fossil not before 2030-2040, all with great uncertainties. If you are keen on witnessing big events (count me out), look for financial instability/reset and military conflict first.

rockman on Fri, 20th Dec 2013 2:59 pm 



Arthur – You’re certainly free to define PO as you wish. But for most of us it’s about the production rate and not the reserves in the ground. Yes…need in-ground reserves to have production. But it’s the production rate, regardless of how much oil is proven in the ground, that determines the price and availability of oil. I’ve watched more than one oil company go into bankruptcy when they had tens of $millions of reserves in the ground and insufficient cash flow to function.

And I’ll offer the point I’ve made many times before: I don’t know when global PO will happen. But more important, I don’t care. It’s just on more date on the calendar. What I care about is the production dynamics, how that affects oil prices and thus how oil prices affect the economy. We may not be at GPO yet but just in the last 5 years the world has paid about $8 trillion MORE for oil then it would have had not prices increased. And this has happened years before the GPO date. In fact, we are producing more oil today than ever before. A fact that many cornucopians offer as proof that PO isn’t an important consideration. I’ll ask what’s more important to you today: will GPO happen in 2020 or the fact that you’re paying 300% more for oil then you were less than 10 years ago? That’s a very easy answer for me. Of course, since I sell oil for a living, it’s important to me very a very positive reason. LOL.

And I fully agree with you regarding “big events”: we’ve already seen some major ones while still being years away from that magical GPO date.

Arthur on Fri, 20th Dec 2013 4:07 pm 



You’re certainly free to define PO as you wish. But for most of us it’s about the production rate and not the reserves in the ground.

Indeed, no discussion about the definition of ‘peak oil’… being the date of highest oil production in history, which can only established in hindsight, many, many years after the fact. See for instance what happened to US oil production, could reach all time high soon, making a mockery of ‘Hubbard’s Peak 1970’, 44 years ago.