Photo: Getty/David McNewThe world may be nearing the upper limits of agricultural production, raising questions about how we will feed a more crowded planet.
US researchers say yields of about 30 per cent of crops, including rice and wheat, have decreased abruptly or have plateaued in recent years.
Most future projections that would ensure global food security are typically based upon a constant increase in yield.
However, this new research reported in Nature Communications, suggests this may not be possible.
Past trends have been dominated by the rapid adoption of new technologies which allowed for an increase in crop production.
Kenneth Cassman and colleagues at the University of Nebraska characterise past yield trends for cereal, oil, sugar, fibre, pulses, tuber, root crops, rice, wheat and maize, as evidence against a projected scenario of crop yield increase.
Their data suggest the rate of yield gain has recently decreased or stopped for one or more of the major cereals in many of the most intensively cropped areas of the world, including eastern Asia, north-western Europe and the US.
They calculate that the stagnation in yield gain affects around 33% of the global rice and 27% of the global wheat production.
In China the increase in crop yields in wheat has remained constant, but maize yield increase has decreased by 64% for the period 2010-2011 relative to the years 2002-2003.
This decrease has occurred despite an increase in investment in agricultural research and development, education, and infrastructure, suggesting that in many areas a maximum potential of yield production may have been reached.
The research was published in Nature Communications.
J-Gav on Tue, 17th Dec 2013 11:31 pm
A constant increase in yield “may not be possible?” Was I really waiting for Business Insider to fill me in on that one?
Dwight Eichorn on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 1:21 am
That yield increase in many areas has plateaued or is decreasing is not hard for me to believe. Considering all the soil degradation, that has resulted from ignoring soil health and then using chemicals including fertilizers,pesticides, and fungusides to to destroy it even more.
I`ve been learning a lot from some folks with a whole different mind set and implimenting those consepts on my farm. I `ll just mention Joel Salatin, Allan Savory,Dr Jill Clapperton, Gabe Brown,since they have presentations on youtube. But the short of it is we need a lot more farmers on the ground, working on soil health, mitigating things like drought, disease,flooding, and water quality. And as the soil gets better, increased food production naturally follows. All with far less chemical and petroleum inputs.These farmers are far better prepared for high oil prices and their models can feed a lot more people than the industrial model that is article is focusing on.
PrestonSturges on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 1:24 am
“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
-economist Herbert Stein
dissident on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 1:31 am
I am waiting for some drone to invoke the name of Malthus, the cornie’s favourite whipping boy. Since technology increased yields in the past, it will surely increase yields in the future. LOL.
Stilgar on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 1:31 am
Peak oil, peak water, peak debt and now peak food. Seems like we’re reaching the top of the mountain. Better ease up or we’ll go right down the other side. Can you see, is it steep?
BillT on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 2:39 am
Stilgar, I think it is a shear cliff. We shall see. Either way, it is going to be painful to the western, ‘developed’ countries most of all. The rest are used to pain.
DMyers on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 3:14 am
The real issue now is what is food? Here in the land of four patty hamburgers and Easter basket fries, how could there be starvation? If all that “food” has no nutritional value, you could just as well eat cardboard. Does it have nutritional value? Who knows? You can’t see nutritional value. You can only trust that it’s there.
But it isn’t. We are starving, very slowly. The healthcare system can’t help this. It’s “natural” death.
Industrial agriculture does not produce food. It produces empty calories, with some herbicide and insecticide thrown in for good flavor. Eat to your heart’s content, but it ain’t gonna save you.
Stilgar on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 3:19 am
Yeah, most in the West aren’t use to doing without or any kind of discomfort. I’m curious to see what happens when people can’t make a cell call (to comfort their insecurity), use an app (because it’s so techie) or the heater doesn’t work.
Cornucopian: “I can’t get a signal, this app isn’t working and I’m cold. Oh my gawd, what’s happening to us?!!”
Realist: “Everything’s going to be alright as soon as we get to the rural commune to work as farm laborers (in this post collapse society), that app isn’t necessary and just put on a jacket.”
Cornucopian: “How cynical! You know everything is going to be just the way it was. They’re fixing things so we can go back to the way we were living before. You’ll see.”
Realist: “I got to stop here and get some shovels, picks and rakes. Want to give me a hand?”
“Do what?!”
Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 7:37 am
Yea, pretty easy to figure out now. A financial crisis any month now with no bullets left for the big gunfighters. We will then see Catastrophic bifurcation where once a financial tipping point has been passed, a series of positive feedbacks drives the energy system to a contrasting state. This starts with above ground effects of financial crisis triggering further reinforcing bellow ground depletion issues. Then watch out food system when the all critical inputs to industrial agriculture become unstable and further drive Catastrophic bifurcation in the food system. This initiates general collapse. Wow, we are almost there. “Gather the rose buds while thee may:)
I give the first stair step to the end of industrial civilization 9 years. I don’t know how the financial show will play out but I do forecast the energy brick wall starting in 5 to 9 years. Since food is basically oil derived we will have a food/fuel brick wall and energy trap.
The optimism I have is we have maybe 9 years. We can do allot in that amount of time. Despite all the problems, peak everything also mean allot of stuff to cannibalize and allot of system momentum. Yet, entropy will quickly eat away at years of investment until little is usable for business as usual. Oops, climate change, I forgot that too.
Arthur on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 8:56 am
Finally some good news for a country that is a lot in the news lately, the Ukraine. A lot of extremely good soil, once the bread basket of Europe, but ruined by communism. Good opportunity to rise like a Phoenix from the ashes.
BillT on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 12:45 pm
Arthur, Russia thinks so too. I understand they decided to go with Russia instead of the EU. Am I wrong?
Arthur on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 3:18 pm
The Russian dominated leadership of the eastern Ukraine (Yanukovitch) accepted a deal from Putin that is far better than what the EU offered (basically an association treaty, nothing more). The western Ukraine is traditionally Europe-oriented (Poland, Habsburg-Austria); it were they that were seen protesting in the streets of Kiev during the past few weeks. In reality the current Amserican oriented EU is not ready (yet) to accept the Ukraine as a full-member, but who is going to tell that to the poor Ukrainians? The Ukraine is very big and very poor. For the moment we in the EU have enough problems with Romania, Bulgaria, etc. and subsequent large immigration patterns.
But Putin has also said that the Ukraine can do what it want, short of NATO membership. For the moment, neither Russia, nor the EU are ready to take full responsibility for the Ukraine, as aptly described by this Israeli-based think tank:
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20101129_geopolitical_journey_part_6_ukraine
Russia and the EU both value a good mutual relationship more, than trying to draw the Ukraine to either side. Poor Ukraine is like an orphan, looking for parents.
Newfie on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 3:58 pm
@BillT: “sheer”, not “shear”.
GregT on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 6:01 pm
“I give the first stair step to the end of industrial civilization 9 years. I don’t know how the financial show will play out but I do forecast the energy brick wall starting in 5 to 9 years. Since food is basically oil derived we will have a food/fuel brick wall and energy trap.”
I would have to agree with this outlook. My forecast has been for sometime between 2020 and 2025. So between 6 and 11 years. That could be accelerated by any number of factors, climate change, financial collapse, or war, to name a few.
I’m sure that everyone here remembers 911. That was over 12 years ago. 12 years go by very quickly.
The time to prepare is rapidly running out.
Whether the cliff we are about to careen off of is sheer, or shear, is pretty much irrelevant at this point.
BillT on Wed, 18th Dec 2013 11:25 pm
LOL … so blame spell check, Newfie. I type quickly and often just glance for underlines to correct. I can’t help it if it doesn’t recognize the correct word. But then, most Americans would not even know it is wrong. ^_^
As for timing, I too believe that the SWHTF in less than 10 years. Probably in the next few. Too many black swans in the flock to count or to know which one or ones will land and when. Be patient and prepare. Enjoy these last days of the old world as the new one will not be pretty.