Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on December 9, 2013
Make Solar, Not War
Making the headlines recently has been China’s assertion of a no-fly zone over large parts of the East China Sea. The no-fly zone is a direct provocation towards Japan over a territorial dispute of a group of islands in a body of water shared by both countries. What’s flying under the radar of these headlines is what China and Japan are doing together: installing more solar capacity than the rest of the world.
In 2013, both Japan and China surpassed 10 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity. They join three other countries, Germany, Italy, and the US, as the only countries to surpass the 10 GW threshold. This milestone not only signifies the joining of a select group of countries by Japan and China, but also a shift in the global solar photovoltaic (PV) market.
From 2006 to 2011 the majority of global solar PV demand originated in Europe and was as high as 80% in many years. However, as the chart below indicates, European demand began waning and at the end of 2012 demand from the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region overtook demand from Europe. Approximately 50% of the global demand for solar PV in 2014 is expected to come from the APAC region.
Reasons Behind Shift From Europe to APAC
In 2010, the German, Spanish, and French governments unexpectedly cut subsidies to renewable energy, and the demand for solar PV in Europe began to fall. The negative and still sluggish growth of the European economy from the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis did not help the growth of solar either. The onset of a trade dispute with China over the illegal dumping of solar panels at below cost on the European market also created an atmosphere of policy uncertainty that prevented many projects from receiving the green light.
At the same time as uncertain policy and tough economic times in Europe caused a drop in demand, policies were implemented in China and Japan that accelerated the demand for solar PV. In 2009, the Chinese government announced a $3 billion initiative called the Golden Sun that is subsidizing hundreds of solar projects across the country. In addition, in 2011 China began using a feed-in tariff to bolster its domestic solar market. In Japan, the meltdown of the Fukushima nuclear reactor created a new focus on developing solar energy. In 2012 one the highest feed-in tariffs in the world was approved in Japan, leading to an increase in demand of solar PV of 150% year over year with 5 GW in the pipeline through the end of the second quarter of 2014.
The result: China now has the highest demand for solar PV in the world and Japan has the second highest.
Clear Skies Ahead For Eurasian Solar PV Demand
2013 is on pace for 35 GW of global solar installations, an all-time high. IHS Solar PV Demand tracker predicts another record year in 2014 with installations increasing approximately 15% to 40-42 GW. NPD Solarbuzz has a more optimistic forecast of solar installations increasing to 45-55 GW in 2014 with 24-32 GW coming from the APAC region. The good news in Europe is that the demand for solar PV is expected to stabilize to 2.5 GW per quarter in 2014 with the demand driven by Germany, Italy, the U.K., and France. The solar panel dumping trade dispute between Europe and China was also resolved this week and the certainty of its finality could provide a tailwind for demand.
18 Comments on "Make Solar, Not War"
Kenz300 on Mon, 9th Dec 2013 2:34 pm
Quote — “policies were implemented in China and Japan that accelerated the demand for solar PV. In 2009, the Chinese government announced a $3 billion initiative called the Golden Sun that is subsidizing hundreds of solar projects across the country. In addition, in 2011 China began using a feed-in tariff to bolster its domestic solar market. In Japan, the meltdown of the Fukushima nuclear reactor created a new focus on developing solar energy. In 2012 one the highest feed-in tariffs in the world was approved in Japan, leading to an increase in demand of solar PV of 150% year over year with 5 GW in the pipeline through the end of the second quarter of 2014.”
——————-
The growth of solar in China and Japan will further drive down prices for solar energy making it more affordable in less developed countries. Solar power is growing in use around the world.
It is time to transition to safer, cleaner alternative energy sources and away from Climate busting fossil fuels.
BillT on Mon, 9th Dec 2013 2:53 pm
Another ad disguised as ‘information’.
Solar cannot ever be more than a small percentage of future energy demand. Yes, it is getting cheaper here in the Philippines and I am glad as it is how our farm will be powered as it is almost a mile to the nearest commercial utility lines.
Arthur on Mon, 9th Dec 2013 4:53 pm
Bill, if your farm can be powered with solar, then any home can (in the West).
Here forecast data from the European Photovoltacis Industry until 2017:
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Publications/GMO_2013_-_Final_PDF.pdf
– Page 15 shows the global installed PV per capita
– Page 18 shows a detailed map for Europe. With several regions having >450 W/capita, meaning 2 big solar panels per capita
– Page 25 shows two scenarios for PV solar in Europe…
1) BAU (pure market driven)
2) policy driven.
Currently installed ca 85 GW.
Forecast 2017:
1)124 GW
2) 180 GW
So expect ca. 50-100% PV increase in Europe over the coming 4 years.
Repeat cycle for every block of 4 years. By 2030 a substantial part of electricity generation will come from PV. There is no real limit to PV.
GregT on Mon, 9th Dec 2013 5:13 pm
“There is no real limit to PV.”
That’s right! The Earth is no longer flat, it is now INFINITE.
Bob Inget on Mon, 9th Dec 2013 7:09 pm
Love it when we learn more from comments then the actual conversation starter.
It came to me the other day, there might be a good market for USED PV panels.
Early adapters have used up their tax credits. Today, a person can have as much or double the generated power for half cost of five years ago.
An agile installer could resell five year old panels (and inverters) at a lower cost to suspecting home or commercial building owners. New owners would still have full installation costs, including rails, clamps, wiring
etc but still earn tax credits.A five year old undamaged panel is still good for another 20 to 25 years.
Previous owners keep existing wiring
rails clamps, etc and reinstall state of art, more powerful panels, the latest in inverters and storage or grid-tie.
Obviously re-apply for existing tax credits.
That installer now has two happy campers. In five or six years, rinse and repeat.
Arthur on Mon, 9th Dec 2013 8:36 pm
Greg, I responded to Bill’s statement:
Solar cannot ever be more than a small percentage of future energy demand
It is enough to cover an area the size of Spain with solar panels to replace ALL non-solar energy sources, incl. keeping the current global car fleet operational. In the Sahara, Arizona, Kalahari, Gobi, etc., there is more than enough formerly useless desert space to generate more energy then we will ever need. And then there is wind…
So not just a ‘few %’.
But I do realize that covering an area like Spain entirely with solar panels is a daunting task. We have more of a timing problem, but the potential is there.
Jamie DeVriend on Mon, 9th Dec 2013 10:31 pm
I think Kenz300 made a great point. The more we see solar energy being supported around the world, the cheaper the materials will be to produce. Along the same lines, the quality of solar energy systems and the technology behind it will also improve. I do find it disappointing that Germany, France, and Spain cut subsidies, but it gives us a clear picture on how providing incentives to customers to support solar power also fuels the market.
sunnyboy on Mon, 9th Dec 2013 11:16 pm
Of course solar can carry 100% of the load. The great advantage of solar is that you produce the power where you need it. You eliminate line lose which can be as much as 50%. You don’t cover Spain with panels you cover everyone’s roof with panels. With sufficient battery storage on-site you eliminate the need for a grid at all. Battery prices are coming down and performance is going up. Just like panels, the more you install the cheaper it gets. In the last four years solar PV panels have gone from 195 watts each to 320 watts each (at the high end). And prices have gone down. Same thing is happening with storage technology. The mail limiting factor is the power companies lobbying to squash solar. I think it’s time to squash them!!
Dave Thompson on Tue, 10th Dec 2013 12:22 am
So solar sounds great. What about the rare earth and fossil fuels required to manufacture all of this technology? We are talking about covering the size of Spain. Yes batteries are improving however they still require fossil fuel stock input. Even if some of us can afford this, what about the rest of the 6.7 billion? This may work for a few but the vast majority of earthlings will not be in a position to do anything other then cut firewood.
BillT on Tue, 10th Dec 2013 12:59 am
Dave, ALL of the above comments seem to overlook the elephants in the room. Materials: rare earth scarcity and the energy cost to secure/manufacture/instal them and world and personal economies that are contracting along with the incomes of those who are supposed to buy and install these ‘marvels of technology;.
It is not that it is technically possible, but that it is not financially or resource accessibility possible. They forget that a solar panel does not magically appear in their local store. It has taken many barrels of oil equivalent energy to get that panel from the ground unto the store shelf.
GregT on Tue, 10th Dec 2013 1:45 am
As mentioned before, what exactly does everyone believe that we are going to use all of these solar panels for?
The stuff that we currently power with electricity, requires fossil fuels to mine, refine, manufacture, transport, and maintain. Not to mention the fact that most industrial processes require finite resources. Which are also running out.
So great, we all have solar panels on our roofs. What are we going to use them for? The internet? Electric vehicles? Stuff that is absolutely not necessary for human survival?
Come on people, we’re putting the cart before the horse here.
BillT on Tue, 10th Dec 2013 7:01 am
True, Greg-T. We can power our 1,000 sf home with less than 10 – 100W panels. They will power the water pump, lighting, fans, small fridge, and the satellite internet hookup and equipment (for the time we have internet.) We will use NG for as long as we can afford it or it lasts, and then go to charcoal/wood from trees grown locally when it is not.
Three hectares in a land of eternal summer allows year round food production and the trees never stop growing. Temps at the farm location are 25C to 35C year round (75F to 95F) so no heating or cooling required.
Arthur on Tue, 10th Dec 2013 10:58 am
Sunnyboy: You don’t cover Spain with panels you cover everyone’s roof with panels.
Of course you don’t. It was just to show how relatively little space is required to solve the long term energy problem.
In Holland in 2017 everyone is required to have an internet connection as the entire public sector will be online for 100%.
In a similar fashion that government should send the public the message that power from utilities is not guaranteed after 2020 and that solar panels will be obligatory after 2020 and that you better start saving money for that occasion. Likewise people from smaller towns/villages should be obliged to participate in/crowd fund one or more wind turbines for local energy production.
We can power our 1,000 sf home with less than 10 – 100W panels. They will power the water pump, lighting, fans, small fridge, and the satellite internet hookup and equipment (for the time we have internet.)
No offense, but if you can do it, everybody can.
Arthur on Tue, 10th Dec 2013 11:16 am
Here is an overview of globally installed PV power:
http://deepresource.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/global-pv-power-map.jpg
Roughly double the amounts shown for wind (and ignore outliers like Canada, Norway and Iceland, countries that enjoy the luxury of nearly 100% hydro electricity generation).
Solar has much more potential to grow than wind. Expect that PV power generation will double with every four years, leading to 2240 Watt/capita for Europe in 2030, which is more than enough to lead a somewhat recognizable ‘western lifestyle’. 2030 btw is the more likely earliest date where peak fossil (oil + gas + coal) could occur, but if technology advances, as it likely will, endless amounts of seabed methane hydrates could be exploited as well, unfortunately, enabling a ‘third cabon age’, protracting the fossil age well into the second half of this century.
BillT on Tue, 10th Dec 2013 11:36 am
LOL, dream on Arthur!. Save what money? If you stop techie dreaming and do some research on the world economy, you would see that nothing is going to change in the next years, except, maybe, war. Every Western country is bankrupt. EVERYONE. If you think Denmark is immune, think again. It is a tiny country not bigger than a modern city and dependent on the rest of the world for most of it’s needs, just like every other Western country. The third world countries are still mostly self sufficient for their real needs. True, they will not have color TVs or the latest I-toy, but they will have food and shelter, the real necessities of life. Not so much the just-in-time West.
Arthur on Tue, 10th Dec 2013 1:04 pm
LOL, dream on Arthur!. Save what money? If you stop techie dreaming and do some research on the world economy, you would see that nothing is going to change in the next years, except, maybe, war. Every Western country is bankrupt. EVERYONE.
Not everyone, some western countries are bankrupt (US, Greece, Ireland), some are not (Germany, Italy, France, Eastern Europe), some are in between (UK, Holland) see graph at the top of the link or listen to Kotlikoff, who is a member himself of the US ruling caste:
http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2013/11/18/the-end-of-the-us-wellfare-state/
Consequences? The US will be forced soon to apply the red pencil big time, abandon empire/MIC, abolish Obamacare, cancel pensions as is already the case in Detroit and Greece. I predict that as a consequence you will be back in the US in a few years time to look for shelter with your family once the ATM in Manila will stop functioning. I am sorry to say this Bill, but your decision to move to the Philippines in order to preempt a global collapse, based on the musings of the likes of Heinberg, was premature. There is not going to be a ‘global collapse of society’ in your lifetime.
In contrast Germany, with almost zero financial problems, will continue to organize the expansion of the EU eastwards, with the Ukraine next on the todo list, that is craving for EU-admission, as recent demonstrations have clearly shown. Nice soil btw in the Ukraine. Lebensraum, anyone?.lol A few thousand German, Dutch or American farmers could achieve wonders there, but I digress.
spiegel . de/international/europe/pigs-and-protection-money-german-farmers-seek-their-fortunes-in-russia-a-808377.html
I agree that in the coming years belt tightening will be obligatory everywhere, but that is not going to halt the introduction of renewable energy in Europe at all. On top of that there is not going to be a significant interruption of the supply of carbon fuel before 2030, unless there is a war. High prices & economic stagnation, yes, but no end times style collapse, ‘just’ a reset of the financial system, wiping out most savings.
GregT on Tue, 10th Dec 2013 5:19 pm
Arthur,
I would argue that if there ISN’T a ‘significant interruption of the supply of carbon fuel before 2030’, our BIGGEST hurdles will not be economic stagnation, or war, but those of the basic necessities of life. Food, water, shelter, and security.
The climate IS changing, and will continue to do so for decades, even if we stop contributing more CO2 into the environment now. If we do not stop, it is highly likely that we will cause a runaway greenhouse event. If we do trigger such an event, savings accounts, and energy infrastructure, will be the least of our concerns.
Arthur on Tue, 10th Dec 2013 7:46 pm
The climate IS changing
The weather looked nice today, with the sun shining, so I took my bicycle and drove all the way through the forests to the Belgian border, where a convent is located where the make the best beer in the world. The hot chocolate tasted good though, since I needed to cycle 25 km back and thus skipped the Trappist. Now my feet are frozen, despite climate change. 😉
Seriously, I am not so convinced about the reality of human caused global warming, but, as you know, I did not put a lot of effort in verifying that point of view. As you know my attitude is that we need to switch to carbon free renewable energy as soon as possible anyway, which would bring as a bonus that human induced climate change, if any, would stop after we would have completed the transition.
Here is a ‘Green Guy’ who disputes climate change. I remain agnostic about it.
http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/fritz-vahrenholt-there-is-no-man-made-climate-change/