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Page added on November 16, 2013
World Population: How Many Billion?
In 1960, the population was about 3 billion.
Now, in 2013, the world population is estimated to be about 7 billion.
That’s right – in 50 years, the world population has doubled. And that means my parents and everyone in their generation have lived through a doubling in population. This got me to thinking: will the world population double in my lifetime or in the next 50 years? Also, how could the planet possibly sustain that much life?
According to the United Nations, the world population is expected to hit 9.6 billion by 2050 – not quite doubling in the next 50 years, but pretty close. Life expectancy is also projected to increase world-wide, and especially in developing countries, so that adds to the number of people in the world as well.
National Geographic also hypothesizes that the population will level out around 10 billion.
With more people comes the consumption of more resources, and this could end up being a huge problem. With countries like the US and China using more and more fossil fuels and other finite resources, there is likely to be a world energy and water crisis.
For more information on the effects of people on the planet, visit National Geographic’s Population: 7 Billion special series, or watch this video adaptation, which explains the world population growth and how many resources we are using. As the video says, “it’s not space we need, it’s balance”:
9 Comments on "World Population: How Many Billion?"
rollin on Sat, 16th Nov 2013 7:38 pm
Both population and demand have to fall since we are in overshoot already. To surmise that another planetfull of people will be added in forty years is a recipe for disaster.
Since most of the predicaments we face will have reared their heads long before 2050, I doubt if this prediction can come true.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 16th Nov 2013 7:45 pm
The world population will not double over the next 50 years unless resource consumption roughly doubles along with that population increase. To project that we’ll be able to double resource consumption over the next 50 years seems to me totally absurd.
noobtube on Sat, 16th Nov 2013 7:47 pm
If the average person on the planet, lived like the average African, the Earth could sustain 63 BILLION PEOPLE!
So, where is the population “problem” that the polluters and trash makers in Europe and the United States keep screaming about?
Well, look at that.
Europe and the United States ARE THE POPULATION PROBLEM (and let’s throw in China for good measure).
Stilgar on Sat, 16th Nov 2013 9:37 pm
“According to the United Nations, the world population is expected to hit 9.6 billion by 2050 – not quite doubling in the next 50 years, but pretty close.”
Not sure how an increase of 2.6b over current 7b = 9.6b is close to a doubling, since 14b would be a doubling. It’s only off by 4.4b?
Math aside, people are guaranteed to squeeze whatever they can out of this planet with the population I am sure going as high as resources will permit. If they perfect an economically viable fusion prior to a die-off, or make the transition to renewables on a big enough scale prior to an economic collapse, I think the population will continue to rise to 15-20b. Remember there is no long term plan, no restrictions, so humans will tee off until restrained in some manner against their will.
Think of it this way; the number of people dying will have to equal the number of people being born to level off. The number dying will have to exceed those born to reduce population. It will have to be quite a calamity for that to occur.
My view on the situation is either a die-off occurs due to dropping EROEI that causes an economic collapse, or a die-off occurs due to runaway GW from methane releases from the Arctic and CO2 from within the Arctic circle.
Or, fusion and or renewables provides greater energy to continue to increase population. Food production is simply a factor of cheap energy. If it’s available we can always grow food in multi-story buildings that is pesticide free and get a lot more per acre. In this way we could all live in high-rise apartments and the population could go probably as high as 50 billion. There would be no wild exotic animals and no wild forests, just tree farms.
peakyeast on Sat, 16th Nov 2013 10:32 pm
noobtube: How much innovation and technology comes out of africa?
If we lived like africans all of us – i.e. no health care, no disease control, and no technological enhancements while chopping away at all natural resources – do you really think we will survive individually in any way that we would like to?
I think you should just move to Chad now and get your dose of what you think is fine for us all and i pretty sure you would realize that the number has to be FAR less in order to provide a sustainable worthwhile life.
I know I would – bcoz i have been there and back.
Kenz300 on Sat, 16th Nov 2013 11:17 pm
Access to family planning resources needs to be available to all that want it.
Birth Control Pictures Slideshow: Methods, Side Effects and Effectiveness on MedicineNet.com
http://www.medicinenet.com/birth_control_pictures_slideshow/article.htm
BillT on Sun, 17th Nov 2013 2:09 am
noobtube, on this one, I agree. It is mot that the world could not support 15 billion of us, it is that it would not support us as we want to be supported. You are also totally correct in that it is the 1st world that is draining the planet’s resources, not the other 6+ billion of us. Even the Philippines uses 1/20 the energy per capita as the West, and we are doing fine.
I think the others above are going to be forced to downsize their lifestyle and expectations drastically before they die. Maybe if they are within a decade or so of death, they will live out their lives in their techie world, or maybe not. We shall see.
action on Sun, 17th Nov 2013 2:19 am
For those above the level of animal, and there’s not many, having a baby comes from arrogance, to see the continuation of one’s self. Honestly it would more of a testament to us if we DECIDED to end our species through non-reproduction, I mean we’re already choosing to end our species through ignorance, why not make it deliberate?
Manuel Lopez on Sun, 17th Nov 2013 11:52 pm
I was born in 1942. Starting school I read world population was 2500 million people. Now we are 7500+ million.
SO I AM LIVING THROUGH A TREBLE OF THE WORLD POPULATION.
I hope this to be a Guinness world record (for the sake of future generations)