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Page added on October 18, 2013
IEA: Rising Output, Energy Efficiency to Halve US Oil Imports by 2020
Rising oil and gas production and improving energy efficiency in the United States could slash its oil imports in half by the end of 2020 from levels seen two years ago, the West’s energy watchdog said on Wednesday.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) earlier this month said the United States would overtake Russia next year to become the world’s largest oil producer thanks to its shale oil boom.
Adding that development to energy savings from investments in efficiency will cut the need of the world’s largest oil consumer to rely on imported oils, the IEA said. Earlier this month, the U.S. government said the country had already ceded its ranking as top global oil importer to China.
In the report released on Tuesday at the World Energy Congress in South Korea, the IEA said the United States has taken steps toward becoming one of the most energy efficient members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) by 2020.
Global energy efficiency markets around the world drew investment of up to $300 billion in 2011, a level on par with global investments in renewable energy or fossil-fuel power generation, the IEA noted in the report.
In 2010, IEA economies avoided burning 1.5 billion tonnes of oil equivalent thanks to efficiency improvements since 1974.
10 Comments on "IEA: Rising Output, Energy Efficiency to Halve US Oil Imports by 2020"
TIKIMAN on Fri, 18th Oct 2013 11:07 am
No matter what, US imports will drop becuase China will be importing it all!
Luke on Fri, 18th Oct 2013 12:07 pm
Did the Paris based IEA copy 1:1 the message from the DC based EIA?
bobinget on Fri, 18th Oct 2013 2:04 pm
If US does not LOWER consumption, increase efficiency, Canada needs to come up with an additional six million barrels a day by 2020 to make up deficiency.
Imports from our other regular sources by 2020 will all be taken by Asia or involved in regional conflicts.
The really scary bit? Asian oil companies are poised to pounce on Canadian oil companies should train transport prove to dangerous and XL pipeline is denied permits.
Watch Shell, Sasol, others, building refineries to convert natural gas into diesel and jet fuel.
shortonoil on Fri, 18th Oct 2013 3:22 pm
The long term elasticity for petroleum is 630K barrels per $10/b increase in price past 2012. As 2020 price projections will put it at around $200/barrel by that date, supply probably won’t be much of an issue. Energy efficiency probably won’t account for more than 5% of the decrease in usage that will be occurring by 2020.
GregT on Fri, 18th Oct 2013 6:04 pm
“Energy efficiency probably won’t account for more than 5% of the decrease in usage that will be occurring by 2020.”
Agreed. And for those not very good at basic arithmetic, that would be in 6 years, and 2 1/2 months.
Now would be a very smart time, to start planning accordingly.
DC on Fri, 18th Oct 2013 6:41 pm
I mean this is RigPorn at it again, but the ‘energy efficiency’ trope is really getting a little over-used. In a flat or contracting economy, hardly ANYONE has excess capital to invest in ‘efficiency’ even if such a thing were available in waste-addicted for-profit energy system.
I agree with GregT and Short completely. ‘Efficiency’ gains in our fossil-fueled ‘economy’ will only account for a tiny fraction of total energy reduction. The contracting economy\supply, will take care of the other 95% far more efficiently than all the Priuses in Japan.
Newfie on Fri, 18th Oct 2013 7:59 pm
There must have been a change of management at the IEA. They have completely forgotten their warnings about peak of only a few years ago. Strange.
nemteck on Fri, 18th Oct 2013 8:27 pm
http://www.worldoil.com/August-2007-Systematic-bias-in-EIA-oil-price-forecasts-Concerns-and-consequences.html
EIA Oil price projection in 2004:
In the reference case, the average lower 48 crude oil price is projected to be $23.61 per barrel in 2010 and $26.72 per barrel in 2025 (Figure 93). In the high world oil price case, the lower 48 crude oil price increases to $32.80 per barrel in 2010 and $34.90 per barrel in 2025. In the low world oil price case, the lower 48 price generally declines to $16.36 per barrel in 2010, then rises to $16.49 per barrel in 2025…”
Unbelievable! Forecasts down to the last Cent.
shortonoil on Fri, 18th Oct 2013 9:31 pm
“Unbelievable! Forecasts down to the last Cent.”
The EIA relies on a demand model, but there is no way to quantify demand. Any model that has a prayer of working must be based on the fundamental physical properties of petroleum. Anything else is guess work. The agency should stick to what they do best; counting barrels! Also, they should learn how to keep the count of corn syrup, refinery gains, condensate and crude oil in different categories.
Others on Sat, 19th Oct 2013 2:01 am
Energy Efficiency is sure thing, but rising production is tough as Shale has high depletion rates.
IEA never talked big about Renewable, so we cannot take them seriously.