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Page added on October 6, 2013
Predicting the timing of peak oil
This Article Predicting the timing of peak oil is composed of Creative Common Content.
The Original Article can be location at WikiPedia.org.
Various sources predicting the timing of peak oil include assertions that it would peak decades ago that it has recently occurred that it will occur shortly or that a plateau of oil production will sustain supply for up to 100 years. Predictions have changed through the years as uptodate information such as new reserve growth data became available or predictions of an early peak turned out to be incorrect.
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According to Matthew Simmons former Chairman of Simmons Company International and author of Twilight in the Desert The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy …peaking is one of these fuzzy events that you only know clearly when you see it through a rear view mirror and by then an alternate resolution is generally too late.
7 Comments on "Predicting the timing of peak oil"
J-Gav on Sun, 6th Oct 2013 2:24 pm
Looks pretty clear to me that we’re already on the plateau, with the coming up-bumps and down-bumps that implies. The $64 trillion question is: When will the inexorable decline begin and how sharp will it be? Nobody can say with certainty for the time being but, as the conclusion states: “… by then, an alternate resolution is generally too late.” Which I take to mean: “Too late to avoid a lot of hurt.”
rollin on Sun, 6th Oct 2013 3:41 pm
Why even ask that question, it’s not a real question? Does anybody really think there is going to be a calendar date or even an annual period when peak oil will be determined? It’s already happening in many places, it’s been happening in regions and will continue to happen elsewhere.
Are you concerned about how much it costs to fill your fuel tank? That’s peak oil.
Did the cost of food go way up? That’s peak oil.
Are huge areas of your country being turned into pincushions and filled with toxic fluids? That’s peak oil.
Are you rioting on the streets because your country can no longer afford to import oil or food? That’s peak oil.
It’s not a one day event, it can happen over decades and the descent has happened in some countries sooner than others. An inhomogeneous cataclysmatic occurrence. It’s no longer a question.
The question is what are we doing about it other than running around like nuts looking for more and getting less for our effort?
Peak oil is yesterday’s news, stop listening to the unobservant and incompetent.
Dave Thompson on Sun, 6th Oct 2013 4:45 pm
Cheap conventional peak oil is on.
J-Gav on Sun, 6th Oct 2013 5:55 pm
Rollin – Psychologically, it’ll make a difference when everybody has to acknowledge that net energy per capita is on a clear downslope. Sure, it’ll hit different areas in different ways and even at different times (according to ability to pay) but it’ll still be a big wake-up call.
As for filling my fuel-tank, not an issue – I don’t have a car …
rockman on Sun, 6th Oct 2013 7:14 pm
J-Gav: I have to go along with rollin on this one. I’ve had ongoing pissing matches with some who were obsessed with the date of PO and it’s significance. As far as wake up calls the US consumer is now paying about 300% more for oil today compared to about 10 years ago. Additionally we’ve exhausted $trillions of our tax $’s and countless lives in military adventures in the land of the exporters. And this despite decreasing both imports and consumption a tad. If that hasn’t been a wake up call for someone every time they fill up at the gas station how would informing them that the world will never produce more oil than we did on March 23, 20XX do the job? As has been said: denial is not just a river in Egypt. LOL.
IMHO it’s all about $’s and not bopd.
J-Gav on Sun, 6th Oct 2013 7:25 pm
Never said it was a question of “a date” guys … just when it’s clear we’re on the downslope – not the same thing. That will change mindsets that had been hardened into denial mode, thinking BAU will last forever.
peakyeast on Sun, 6th Oct 2013 8:33 pm
Perhaps the downslope will make people aware. But from my experience: If it doenst hurt people individually they will find ways of explaining that it was just because some dictator in another country that was mad, people made bad economic decisions, other people are stupid and uneducated – besides technology will fix it before it becomes “my” problem
There are all sorts of ways for people that still have enough to explain to themselves that everything is okay – because they are okay.
At least that is how the people i meet today react.