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Page added on September 11, 2013
Peak Petroleum Follie
Two primary arguments are put forward as ways of justifying various economic schemes for reducing oil and gas use (e.g., carbon pricing by way of taxes, subsidies for green energy, emissions trading schemes):
(1) Anthropogenic catastrophic climate change will occur if humans do not reduce their use of fossil fuels and the associated greenhouse gas emissions that result from such activities.
(2) Peak global production of oil and gas has either occurred (or will imminently occur), and/or global peak reserves-to-production ratios for each carbon source have occurred (or will imminently occur). Thus, humans must retool their economic systems in order to adjust to a near-term resource limitation induced post-carbon economy.
Issue (1) has already been dealt with on many well-known climate science skeptic sites.
Issue (2) is simply not supported by the data.
According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy dataset, the global proved reserves of oil have increased steadily since the dataset began in 1980. Similarly, global oil production has increased steadily since the dataset begins in 1965, with an approximately linear increase since the early 1980s.
Dividing the global proved reserves for any given year by the global production rate for that year yields the R/P (reserves-to-production) ratio, which — as defined by BP — indicates where “[i]f the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at that rate.” One has, for several decades now, heard jokes along the lines of “the end of oil is always 20 years away.” Well, actually, the time period until the end of oil (using the global R/P ratio as the proxy) has been increasing steadily since 1980.
In other words, the discovery of new proven oil reserves has greatly outpaced global production increases over this period.
The trends are essentially equivalent for natural gas. Global proved gas reserves have increased steadily since commencement of the BP dataset in 1980, following an approximate linear trend. Global gas production has increased consistently since 1970 at a pseudo-exponential rate of increase.
Since 1980, the R/P ratio for gas has been approximately constant, meaning that new discoveries of proved gas reserves are offsetting corresponding increases in production.
Consequently, there appears to be no significant support for the idea that we require economic schemes to reduce oil and gas use based on their expected near-term global restriction/depletion.
9 Comments on "Peak Petroleum Follie"
GregT on Wed, 11th Sep 2013 3:38 pm
Dis-information, such as the above, is exactly why we are headed for a disaster of epic proportions.
J-Gav on Wed, 11th Sep 2013 4:45 pm
What a weird little non-article! And on a site facetiously named ‘The American Thinker.’ Fact is, global oil production has been basically flat since 2005, like the Earth that this non-journalist thinks he lives on …
charmcitysking on Wed, 11th Sep 2013 4:51 pm
This is a very interesting article to read as someone who is very new to studying the issue of Peak Oil/Energy Depletion.
Two things in particular stand out to me in this article, even with only an elementary knowledge of the topic:
1). All statistical data cited in this article is sourced from BP – Not exactly a biased source of information (and not exactly credible or trustworthy either based on their behavior following the Gulf spill).
2.) The statement:
“In other words, the discovery of new proven oil reserves has greatly outpaced global production increases over this period.”
is very alarming. I am under the impression that global discoveries of new oil reserves peaked some time ago. How has the number of proven reserves managed to “greatly outpace” consumption levels while in decline?
The article also does not address how proven reserves are determined, and whether or not they are economically recoverable.
I am still learning this subject and do enjoy hearing arguments both “for or against” Peak Oil. Articles like this however, can be quite misleading – the bias is quite apparent here.
Newfie on Wed, 11th Sep 2013 5:36 pm
Yes, oil production is going to increase forever. The Earth is actually hollow and filled with creamy black petroleum. I’m going out this afternoon to buy a turbo-charged V-8 Hummer.
actioncjackson on Wed, 11th Sep 2013 8:10 pm
Absolute trash. No prices mentioned. No Carbon Dioxide mentioned. No EROEI mentioned. It extrapolates history with no basis while providing little support for the argument. It’s short and to the point and even mentions concerns from the opposition to trick people who are on the fence about the issue. To assert that nothing is wrong nor needs changing, as the author does in the conclusion, should be taken as a slap in the face because he/she is basically calling you a moron.
rollin on Wed, 11th Sep 2013 8:41 pm
That little blurb:
“Issue (1) has already been dealt with on many well-known climate science skeptic sites.”
Should read climate science septic sites.
Forgot the little thing about rate of production. Really doesn’t matter how much oil is under the ground if you can’t get it out or get it out fast enough.
shortonoil on Wed, 11th Sep 2013 9:28 pm
“According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy dataset, the global proved reserves of oil have increased steadily since the dataset began in 1980.”
This is a P3, 5% estimate. Probability is 5%, proven, probable, and possible will be extracted. Green River is declared possible. Green River is as possible as a herd of oil sniffing, oil drilling flying pigs! The rest isn’t much better!
BillT on Thu, 12th Sep 2013 1:44 am
Oil peaked long before they started calling moonshine ‘oil’. Now any liquid combustible is called ‘oil’. It keeps the graphs looking good, but only fools the suckers.
Keith_McClary on Thu, 12th Sep 2013 2:28 am
“discovery of new proven oil reserves”
These are mostly not new discoveries, they are reclassification of previously known resources that were not recoverable at 20th century prices.