Peak Oil is You
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Page added on August 30, 2013
What do we mean by peak oil?
Another EarthWise piece I wrote aired on WAMC Wednesday. This one was a very basic introduction to the concept of Peak Oil, which is pretty much what it had to be, since it was a 2-minute piece for a general radio audience which might not have even heard of peak oil.
You can listen to it or read the full text here:
If you’d like something with a bit more meat, check out my in-depth look at the economic implications of Peak Oil, The End Of Elastic Oil.
Peak oil is the date when the world’s production of oil will hit its maximum, or “Peak.” A peak in production is mathematically inevitable for any finite resource.
Some commentators caricature “Peak oil” by saying it means we’re “running out” of oil. We’re not running out of oil, but it is getting more expensive as we burn the easy oil first. The real peak oil arguments are about timing, causes, and what we should do about it.
Conclusions about timing hinge on the definition of “oil.” Do we include biofuels? What about natural gas liquids, such as propane? Do we measure volume, or energy content? Answers to these questions can move the peak a decade in either direction.
New recovery techniques and unconventional sources, such as oil sands and shale, may delay the date of peak production a few years in the future.
Unfortunately, these come with increased costs, and often increased carbon emissions.
Hybrid and electric cars, better public transportation, bike lanes, and walkable neighborhoods can reduce oil demand, but they also have costs. High oil costs can provide incentive for these investments, or we can choose to make these investments before we can’t afford not to.
Proceeds of higher carbon or gasoline taxes might also be used to smooth the transition. Increased vehicle efficiency standards, and streets that are safe for bicyclists and pedestrians as well as cars would also help.
Eventually, we will be using less oil because there will be less oil to use. Will even higher prices reduce consumption painfully, or will better policy today make it easier to use less tomorrow?
4 Comments on "What do we mean by peak oil?"
BillT on Sat, 31st Aug 2013 5:48 am
The burbs infrastructure investment means nothing is going to change until it is no longer possible to keep it going. My old neighborhood was 10 miles from a city. You had to drive everywhere. And it was dozens of $500K to $2M+ homes in 2-3 acre ‘estates’. Do you think they are just going to all move to the city and abandon those homes? Nope! BAU until…
No I did not own one. I bought the cheapest old rancher on the street and later did a major renovation/addition over 5 years to bring it up closer to my neighbors. As I did most of the work myself, I made out very well when we sold it in 2001.
Arthur on Sat, 31st Aug 2013 9:14 am
The concept of peak oil should be replaced with peak fossil, since oil, gas and coal are to a large extent interchangable. Then you get a much clearer picture of the timing of the fate of industrial society.
Arthur on Sat, 31st Aug 2013 9:53 am
On second thoughts, maybe Peak Carbon sounds better…
http://www.postcarbon.org/
Peak Fossil on the other hand indicates better that we are dealing with an outdated, if not dead model of society.
DMyers on Sat, 31st Aug 2013 3:54 pm
I have another suggestion for changing terminology. The term “unconventional oil” is the best we have, to date, for unconventional oil. A more accurate term would be “pseudo oil”, but the most accurate would be “quasi oil”.
There is a way we could greatly reduce oil usage but still maintain our way of life. That is by installing virtual reality technology. We could be driving, going shopping, or sitting in a classroom at a far away university without really going anywhere. Everything would be controlled, so there would be no risks, no crime, and no resistance. This scenario is best illustrated, but not exactly, by The Matrix movie. It is best described as Orwellian.
Before I get booed off the stage, let me say I’m not advocating this. This is only possible if there are existing technologies to which we are not privy that would implement it. But if implemented, the human brain could adapt to it much more rapidly and completely than you would think.
I would expect BillT to come at me swinging on this, arguing that a technology like that would fail for lack of energy. I would have to agree with him. But it would lead to a huge decrease in energy usage, with everyone staying in one place all the time, which energy would be freed up to run the Matrix.
I agree that all the organic remnants collectively known as fossil fuels, or simply as carbon, are on a downward slope of depletion. Energy scarcity will force us to change the way we live. Our every tendency and instinct will fight regression, but as the term implies, all we’re doing is going back to where we started only a few hundred years ago. The only regretful aspects of this are the loss of knowledge acquired during the industrial age, and the billions that will perish in the unsustainable margin, which probably includes me.