Bakken Additional Wells verses Barrels Per Day

I just spent half a day trying to make some correlation between Bakken additional wells per month and additional barrels per day. As most of you know the Bakken decline rate is atrocious. Therefore they must keep bringing more and more wells on line each month just to keep production increasing. If they keep adding wells but at the same rate each month then production will likely increase but at a declining rate until… until… it stops increasing at all.

On the below chart I have averaged out, over a six month period, the average number of wells added per month, for that six month period, left scale. Over that I have plotted the total barrels per day added for each six month period, right scale.

Six Mth
Period         Average Wells           Total Added
Ending        Added per Mth         Barrels Per Day
Jun 11                 66                             46,626
Dec 11               136                           149,736
Jun 12               148                           128,027
Dec 12               148                           105,959
Jun 13               140                             52,828

As you can see in the last six months they added half the barrels per day as the previous six month period and just over one third what was added in the first six months of the surge ending December 2011 even though more wells were added, on average, than during those six months.

One thing most everyone in the media cheering section is missing is the fact that the more barrels produced the greater the decline and therefore the more additional wells required to replace that decline. Even Maugeri has figured that out. But how long will it be before the main stream media figures that out?

peak oil barrel

15 Comments on "Bakken Additional Wells verses Barrels Per Day"

John_A on Fri, 23rd Aug 2013 1:40 am 



Bakken wells only? OR are the Three Forks wells included in there as well?

bobinget on Fri, 23rd Aug 2013 1:42 am 



It makes perfect sense to drill sweet spots first.

rollin on Fri, 23rd Aug 2013 3:20 am 



They need more rigs, they are starting to slip toward zero gain.

Plantagenet on Fri, 23rd Aug 2013 3:42 am 



Getting any gain at all is pretty amazing. Most analysts thought US oil production had been locked into decline decades ago

Timson on Fri, 23rd Aug 2013 7:12 am 



Posted it somwehere on the site a few weeks ago that the shale story was just a frenzy. I wasn’t thanked politely, but that is what it is….
The 2020 net-oil exporter aim of the US is hilarious

Ron Patterson on Fri, 23rd Aug 2013 11:41 am 



John_A, the data North Dakota publishes for the Bakken includes Sanish, Three Forks and Bakken/Three Forks area Pools. Also I mispelled “Versus” but it has been corrected now.

westexas on Fri, 23rd Aug 2013 1:44 pm 



US companies have–so far at least–succeeded in slowing the rate of decline relative to the 1970 US crude oil peak.

mike on Fri, 23rd Aug 2013 2:03 pm 



To be fair they have done an insane job of keeping up, but it doesn’t change the fact that this is a huge bubble that is very near popping. when that bubble pops and that energy independance narrative changes, well we may just have another painful step down in the catabolic collapse scenario

ronpatterson on Fri, 23rd Aug 2013 3:46 pm 



John_A, North Dakota published the data I used and they said it:
* Includes Bakken, Sanish, Three Forks and Bakken/Three Forks Pools.

Also I misspelled “versus” but I have now corrected it on the blog.

GregT on Fri, 23rd Aug 2013 4:22 pm 



Infinite exponential growth, in a finite environment, is a mathematical, and physical impossibility.

This is nothing more than a classic ponzi scheme.
All ponzi schemes eventually reach limits, and come to an end, this one will too. All in good time.

Newfie on Fri, 23rd Aug 2013 4:30 pm 



“verses” ??? Is it a poem ?

JB on Fri, 23rd Aug 2013 10:54 pm 



I think you’re right, Ron. We probably hit the final peak in 2012.

Billc on Sat, 24th Aug 2013 2:56 am 



The USA oil extraction peaked in 1970. Now we are going through the great emergency. We peakers saw this a long time ago. The media will catch on when there is a republican president. The media is lower than a band of whores.

shortonoil on Sat, 24th Aug 2013 3:13 am 



If one takes Total Added Barrels per Day, and divide by Average Wells Added Per Mth you get Added Barrels per Well Added. Since these are six month intervals, the increase per six months in production per Well Added equals:

1 706.5
2 1101.0
3 865.1
4 716.0
5 420.2

If you plot the last four points (2-5) you get a perfectly straight line. At this rate Bakken production will cease to increase in about a year. It appears that the decline rate of these wells will soon exceed the capacity to bring new wells on line.

So much for the US being an oil exporter by 2020.

peakyeast on Sat, 24th Aug 2013 3:49 pm 



shortonoil: would it be possible to upload your graph in a better resolution since i cant see anything on it?