Page added on August 4, 2013
To step back a moment, permit me to explain that I chose to depict economic collapse in fiction because so many of us had published non-fiction books and articles on the subject that, for all their merits, left out what it would look, feel, and taste like to live in that deeply transformed future society. I wanted to get to readers through the other side of their brains, to give them a vivid emotional sense of a plausible future. I also thought that a lot of the current so-called apocalyptic fiction, movies, and TV shows were just plain stupid, that they misunderstood the forces actually in motion that would drag us kicking and screaming into the new times, and what those times would actually be like. And, of course, I was fed up with zombies, vampires, and all the other clichéd trappings of story-telling that hitched a ride on the nervous zeitgeist.
The characters in my novels lived very differently than people do in these late days of turbo-petro-industrialism. The economy of their town and the county surrounding it — the extent of normal travel in the new times — was centered on agriculture and the activities that supported it and derived from it. The division of labor had changed drastically in my fictional world, household management especially. Without microwave ovens, washing machines, heating furnaces, and other mechanical slaves that we take for granted, running a household required a lot more work. It was my heuristic judgment (i.e., guess) that such conditions would likely propel work assignments back to more traditional arrangements between men and women, especially because the care of very young children takes place in the home and, despite the wishful propaganda of our times, such care happens to fall mostly to mothers among the higher primates. (The vaunted role of “house-husband” might be improbable if it were not for the fact that so many “breadwinner” jobs today can be done by anybody, male, female, or someone in between.)
Anyway, the reaction to this fictional experiment was surprisingly pugnacious. High and low, far and wide, women denounced my book in formal reviews and casual emails. There was a unifying theme to them, though: a refusal to consider the possibility that social relations might change no matter what happened to the economy. That, and outrage that anyone might suggest a retrograde path for the recent achievements of feminism. It seemed self-evident to me that a lot of this achievement was provisional, depending on larger macro historical trends. That idea alone was greeted, in my replies to reader emails, by the sharpest opprobrium, since it was assumed that the political victories of recent decades have become permanent installations of the human condition. I recognize that, as a principle of politics, privileges and rights attained are rarely given up without a fight. But I wondered at the failure of imagination I was witnessing, especially among educated women readers.
Relations between men and women were not the only feature of the altered social landscape in the fictional future of World Made By Hand. I also created a character named Stephen Bullock whose role in the county had become, in effect, feudal lord, though he disliked thinking of himself that way. I had imagined that Bullock, a shrewd, erudite lawyer who inherited a well-managed farm, had acquired the land of his floundering neighbors and attracted a cohort of able-bodied adults, who had lost their livelihoods and property, to live and work on his establishment, which the townspeople of nearby Union Grove had taken to calling a “plantation.” Bullock’s people, the former car dealers, pharmacists, realtors, and other jetsam of a collapsed industrial-technocratic economy, had “sold” their allegiance to him in exchange for food, security, and community — he had allowed them to build a “village” for themselves at the center of his property. They now labored together in teams or work-gangs to produce a lot of value from Bullock’s land, tending crops and livestock, making value-added market products (whiskey, cheese) from the stuff they produced, running a sawmill, and so on. In exchange, they were well-housed and fed, and led an ordered existence in very uncertain and fretful times. Bullock himself is often portrayed as conflicted by his role, which includes the additional (reluctant) duty of serving as local magistrate in the absence of functioning courts. Thus, I delineated a future that was tending toward what we understand as feudalism. That proposition was greeted with only slightly less consternation by readers than my outlook for male/female vocational relations.
The reason I am explaining all of this is to emphasize that these issues of how a society orders itself are freighted with a heavy burden of emotional cargo, wishes, assumptions, bad memories, fears, resentments, and grievances, which surely accounts for our trouble buying into any vision of the future not in accordance with what’s familiar in our particular moment in history. The stickiest element in my notion of the future might be stated as the issue of social hierarchy: that human beings inevitably fall into unequal status categories, and that the future may hold new status and class arrangements that might seem strange to us today. In the best world, of course, people should be equally free to pursue happiness, or to be all that they can be, but even in an ideal society people will land in one status category or another. In that ideal socio-political system we might also expect a certain elasticity of movement, depending on the choices and actions taken by individuals in their lives, and this “upward mobility” was indeed the engine of the American Dream for much of our history — so the loss of it would be a very harsh indeed on the national psyche.
There shouldn’t be any question that social animals, which people are, universally dispose themselves in hierarchies. The argument is often made that tribal people enjoy something like absolute equality or democracy in small bands, but I’d argue that that is a sentimental fantasy of the sociologists. Rather, simple societies have simpler hierarchies or pecking orders. So, it isn’t a question of whether human societies of the future will present hierarchical qualities, but rather what scale and degree of complexity they will exhibit, how their economies will be organized, and what will be the character of their hierarchy. Clearly, these propositions make a lot of people uncomfortable — to which I’d answer that one of the imperatives of our time for serious people is to learn how to get comfortable with being uncomfortable, because that’s how things are going to get for a while.
In Part II: The New Disposition of Things, we take a close look at the ways in which our current society is most likely to change, whether it wants to or not. The end of cheap, plentiful resources is almost sure to have seismic and retrograde effects on our way of life, our social relations, and our economic systems.
Those who understand the direction of these changes and invest today in positioning themselves for a resilient, graceful entry into this future will find themselves much better prepared (physically, financially, and emotionally) than those who blindly hurtle towards reality’s coming wake-up call.
9 Comments on "James Howard Kunstler Describes the Social Changes to Expect in the Long Emergency"
Plantagenet on Sun, 4th Aug 2013 4:18 pm
Almost two hundred years ago Marx showed how economics shape society. Kunstler is right that the huge changes in the economy accompanying peak oil now are likely to result in societal changes as well.
Arthur on Sun, 4th Aug 2013 5:12 pm
Human rights in general and women’s rights in particular are proportional to the number of virtual energy slaves per capita, a society can generate.
0 means slavery
150 means organisations like NOW
Expect NOW membership to decline, as well as divorce rates.
Beery on Sun, 4th Aug 2013 6:49 pm
I think the problem with Kunstler’s version of the future lies not so much in the misogyny he illustrates, but more in how his viewpoint as the author seems to coincide with that of the misogynists.
DC on Sun, 4th Aug 2013 7:38 pm
He is bumping up against the progress principle. For example, people think slavery is a thing of the past in 2013. In fact, its very much an well, and will be again once oil becomes to scarce, or expensive for most people. People in this age, think once a privilege or right is granted or gained, it becomes immutable for all time, the clock can never be rolled back. Well, history teaches us otherwise. Before western civilization went it through its last collapse, there was science, amazing art, literature, order, trade etc. Afterwards, it was feudalism, christianity, ignorance, brutality and endless superstition. A dark ages that lasted nearly 1500 years. Womens rights, or mens rights for that matter barely moved…for over 15 centuries.
Now of course, no one wants the future to be like this, I certainly dont. But we would do well to learn from the past. People in the post-collapse Roman world lived in a brutal, primitive, Xtian tyranny that reveled in ignorance and making sure NO one had any rights whatsoever, except the rights of an indentured and ignorant slave.
The rise of our own high-tech 24/7 surveillance state and its bread-and-superbowl info-tainment sphere shows we are already beginning a slow backslide into tyranny. Even if those systems one day collapse, their legacy will not be a kind one I thinks…
Oldmusher on Sun, 4th Aug 2013 8:02 pm
To see the future look to the past. As “civilization” reverts to a less energy intensive and more muscle-driven lifestyle it almost certainly will be drawn back to the times when life was much simpler in terms of technology. This means a greater gap in the division of labor between the sexes. It also means that people will naturally ally themselves with individuals who exhibit leadership skills and have the power base to maintain some semblance of order.
actioncjackson on Sun, 4th Aug 2013 8:41 pm
Even though I’m only 29, I don’t kid myself. I won’t be around to see the post transition world. However, if we make it and the crops get going, I call downs on moon-shiner position.
GregT on Sun, 4th Aug 2013 9:26 pm
We will revert back to where we came from, pre- industrial society, pre oil. The big question is; Will we continue to exploit the remaining fossil fuels at our disposal?
If we stop soon, we are in for a future much like what Kunstler describes. If we do not, we are in for a far more barbaric future, or even no future at all.
If what we are currently doing, is any indication of what we will continue to do in the future, it doesn’t look very promising for all life on Earth, at all. The consequences of our actions will be apparant, much sooner than most would like to believe.
BillT on Mon, 5th Aug 2013 1:08 am
For most of those who live in the Western countries, you are already slaves. Don’t you feel the collar around your neck and the heavy weight of debt on the other end? If you are one of the few who are debt free and still have an income, you know what I am talking about. The rest of your will feel the collar when your job evaporates and there is nothing to replace it. Ask the millions who are feeling it today.
Life is going to change and not for the better. Kunstler is only presenting a possible future if we feel the collar now and do something about it. But alas, few will and we will continue down the slippery slope to a pre-hydrocarbon age or worse.
BTW: action, did you know that George Washington put down the Whiskey Rebellion not because it was against the new law, but because he had the law passed to protect his (Washington’s) whiskey business and this gave him the right to destroy his competition? Seems that corporations were already taking over the country from day one.
smokeyjoe on Mon, 5th Aug 2013 2:24 am
Very interesting article. I read “World Made by Hand” but I had no problem with the social order, being a 60 year old guy my feminist credentials are pretty weak. My problem was there was an absence of 20th century junk. I would have expected all of the 250,000,000 cars in America to be strewn all over the place. I think he created something called the Great Collection in which cars were collected and recycled. Well isn’t that nice. While the industrial economy is collapsing people are thoughtful enough to tidy the place up a bit! Also maybe he can explain the “Queen Bee” scene. That said Kuntsler is always fun to read.