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Page added on August 1, 2013
Peak Oil: Preparations, Anyone?
An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Robert Hirsch:
The peak oil story is definitely a bad news story. There’s just no way to sugar-coat it, other than maybe to do what I’ve done on occasion and that is to say that by 2050 we’ll have it right and we will have come through the peak oil recession—quite probably a very deep recession. At some point we’ll come out of this because we’re human beings, and we just don’t give up. And I have faith in people ultimately. But it’s a bad news story and anybody’s who’s going to stand up and talk about the bad news story and is in a position of responsibility in the government needs to then follow immediately and say ‘here’s what we’re going to do about it,’ and no one seems prepared to do that.
That statement was offered in an interview more than three years ago. “Here’s what we’re going to do about” Peak Oil is a conversation we haven’t begun yet—at least not at a level and in scope where any meaningful dialogue occurs, ideas develop, or plans are made.
True, we won’t give up on this challenge any more than any other one mankind has encountered. Optimism is always good; faith in our inherent abilities is likewise commendable—mandatory, actually.
But does it really make sense when dealing with problems of Peak Oil’s magnitude to just … wait until we get around to considering what to do? As I and many others have carefully pointed out, we give little consideration to the fact our lifestyles, our industries, our transportation, our health care, our businesses, our entertainment, and our infrastructure exist in the manner and scope they do because of the easily-taken-for-granted availability of cheap oil. It’s time we devote at least a small amount of our time to pondering that reality.
Cheap is not much of an option these days. Availability—despite the hype of our “vast” reserves of unconventional fossil fuel resources—is already a developing issue, and technology will only carry us so far when dealing with finite resources increasingly more challenging to obtain and then supply.
Those who prefer to gloss over the facts of current and future oil production limitations and rely instead on feel-good news have their own agenda for doing so. The problem is that that agenda harms a lot more of us than it does them, and it’s not going to get any better.
Crisis … or opportunity?
8 Comments on "Peak Oil: Preparations, Anyone?"
Newfie on Thu, 1st Aug 2013 9:06 pm
Never ending growth is a fairy tale that everyone believes in.
BillT on Fri, 2nd Aug 2013 12:23 am
“You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality”
Much as I do not like Ayn Rand’s philosophy, she was correct on this one.
poaecdotcom on Fri, 2nd Aug 2013 1:51 am
Crisis for the current growth based paradigm but an opportunity for a new paradigm.
Local, low energy, and community focused. I am not going to understate the hardships we will have getting there BUT what else is there but have hope.
In direct response to the title of this piece, if anyone needs pointers in preparedness click on my name and fill out the spreadsheet report.
All the best to you, Go LOCAL.
GregT on Fri, 2nd Aug 2013 5:10 am
In order to come out of the peak oil recession by 2050, we will have to keep burning fossil fuels. Trillions of barrels of them. Considering the fact that we don’ t have that much oil left on the planet, we will need to start burning a lot more coal.
In order to stop catastrophic climate change, if it is even still possible, we need to stop burning fossil fuels all together, far before 2050, and if we do, we will sink into the worst depression that mankind has ever seen.
So what’s it gonna be, catastrophic climate change leading to global mass extinction, or a world wide depression that wipes out a large percentage of the population.
My prediction; we will be done as a species on this planet, our economic lust and greed will win out over saving the Earth for future generations. Or maybe it won’t even take that long.
Luke on Fri, 2nd Aug 2013 6:43 am
If we would “grow” out the recession and next fix a durable society the CO2 budget left is just about 600 billion tons. Exceeding this point will raise the CO2 level up to more than 500 ppm presumably causing worldwide 2-5 C (mean) higher temperatures.
You would expect politicians to act now and enforcing a tapering of big scale coal, oil and shale exploration in favour of local solar and wind energy. Local and small scale means we have to say goodbye to this megalomanic consumption society with its growth addiction. Unfortunately this world is ruled by the mighty power of Big Oil, Automotive, etc. and their corruptive hintsmen in the governments of many countries. Short term profits (mainly for their big share holders and boards) above long term survival. The only way is to unite against these devilish forces seducing and misleading us and to take the road to a better future for our children. YES WE CAN!
J-Gav on Fri, 2nd Aug 2013 2:16 pm
Good advice, Poaec.
george on Fri, 2nd Aug 2013 3:48 pm
peak oil will not be mentioned until the panic and hysteria meter tilts
GregT on Fri, 2nd Aug 2013 8:09 pm
A global atmospheric CO2 level, of 350 parts per million, is considered to be the maximum level that can be sustained without triggering catastrophic runaway climate change. Above this level, we run the risk of triggering a number of feedback loops, that have the potential to cause a global mass extinction event. Some of these feedback loops could end all life on Earth within a decade or two.
http://350.org/en/understanding-350
According to instruments at the top of the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, we are currently at 398.58 parts per million and rising. We are not slowing this process down. We are rapidly accelerating it . Over the last 3 years global CO2 output has been increasing at a rate of around 6 percent per year. If this continues, we will have doubled our output from 2010 by 2023. Catastrophic, runaway climate change, leading to a global mass extinction event, will be highly likely by that point, and it will be highly likely to occur in the lifetimes of most of us reading this here.
http://co2now.org
We do not have until 2050, to wean ourselves completely , off of fossil fuels.