Egypt condemned to continued chaos without its earnings from oil!

On the ASPO Sweden website Martin Saar has written a good article on Egypt and how declining income from oil production is a source of that nation’s current problems. It is definitely a problem for their future. (The text is translated to English by Michael Lardelli).

Egypt condemned to continued chaos without its earnings from oil!

Written by Martin Saar, 8 July 2013, 10:23 PM

Egypt has fallen into chaos again and our traditional mainstream media once again have succeeded in missing the fundamental causes of that nation’s problems – runaway population growth, declining natural resources and a continuously worsening trade balance. Unfortunately, those factors were already obvious several years ago and are now even more severe.

According to Egypt’s central bank, for the first time the nation has become a net importer or oil. It is now dependent on its current $2 billion worth of annual natural gas exports to purchase the difference.

In October 2012 the newspaper Egypt Independent published an article “Egypt’s Unbalance of Payments” in which it tried to explain the situation:

“Though many people worry about increases in energy and food bought from abroad, Adly [an economist at the Egyptian Initiative for Human Rights] said they do not represent the bulk of the imports.

“The main issue is not food, but inputs and intermediary products,” said Adly.

“Inputs and intermediary products are goods Egyptian manufacturers need to manufacture a final product for export or domestic consumption. They represented 46 percent of total imports in 2011/12.

“Wheat and maize, the two main imported food products, were 6.3 percent. Energy was 17 percent.

“However, food and energy imports weigh heavily on the Egyptian budget, because subsidized food and energy represented 28 percent of all governmental expenses in 2011/12.”

Meanwhile, exports of petroleum products generated a measly $1.4 billion surplus. That’s more than half of what they brought in the year before, and one fourth of what they generated in 2009/2010.

The crisis in Egypt was completely predictable and has slowly played out over several years. If you want to see “limits to growth” in reality then you need look no further than Egypt. When will those in the mainstream media begin to report the obvious, fundamental bases to the crisis?!

The solution for Egypt must be to tackle its population growth. The nation is far beyond its ability to feed its own population. Egypt is a net importer of the food calories required to support its citizens (primarily wheat) and within a year or two will become a net importer of calories required for industrial consumption (oil is already in deficit and gas and electricity soon will be). What will Egypt export in exchange?

Egypt’s prime minister explained a while ago that a 10 year plan would focus on oil and tourism as the main sources of future income for the nation. It is very doubtful that this will save the nation from widespread chaos and, in the worst case, civil war.

And what is more certain than anything else is that it is nothing more than wishful thinking that Egypt might once again become a net exporter of oil. Many people are worried about increasing imports of energy and food.

The blog Energy Trends has written about Egypt for many years and sums up the situation with many references.

The Swedish-language blog Cornucopia has also written a balanced and informed article on “Egypt and its oil” (in Swedish).

ASPO

19 Comments on "Egypt condemned to continued chaos without its earnings from oil!"

ohanian on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 12:53 pm 



That was my assumption too, that Egypt cruised on the benefits of oil sales to the foreign buyers. But when the oil dried up, it went cold turkey.

dsula on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 12:55 pm 



“What will Egypt export in exchange?” Haha. What a stupid question. Muslims, of course. They will be all over Europe and the west. And the west will be stupid as always to import them.

ohanian on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 1:05 pm 



The population of Egypt is about 83 million people.

There is a nice graph. It show a linear growth until world war 2, After that it went to an exponential growth.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GOll3WZ5Nog/To0BIcy_oRI/AAAAAAAAAY0/-zUiS222PSs/s400/Egypt+26+Population.jpg

Arthur on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 2:09 pm 



“The solution for Egypt must be to tackle its population growth.”

How do they think to achieve that? Egypt is no China and has a weak state.

“And the west will be stupid as always to import them.”

Little to do with stupidity, but everything with the intention of our overlords to disposses us, a leftover of the outcome of WW2. But this strategy of the ‘elite’ could backfire against these agents of globalisation in a catastrophic way. Greece is only the beginning of what will happen all over Europe when the going gets tough.

Arthur on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 2:54 pm 



http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/07/09/secret-document-appears-to-show-qatar-payoffs-to-key-morsi-cronies/

Fascinating insight into the dealings of the Middle East. It shows, to my surprise, that Qatar is NOT entirely in the pocket of the US, but that in the case of Syria, Qatar merely had coinciding interests with the US: getting rid of Assad, but for different reasons. Qatar supports the Caliphate as well, where the US wants to take out an ally of Iran. It also shows that in the ME, the US is on very thin ice (pun intended) and that it could easily get out of hand completely, leading to the removal of US/Western interests from the entire ME, if the Sunni fundamentalist revolution would succeed. Turkey is ready, Egypt is ready, Qatar is ready. The ‘House of Saud’ is NOT ready, as they were too much in bed with the Americans.

smokeyjoe on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 2:59 pm 



Here’s an article that might be interesting. http://www.dailyimpact.net/2011/02/04/has-the-great-unraveling-begun/

BillT on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 3:24 pm 



US foreign aid, average of last 10 years:

Egypt – $1,600,000,000.00 per year.
Israel- $2,700,000,000.00 per year.

Population:
Egypt – 85,000,000
Israel – 7,700,000

PPP:
Egypt – $ 6,600.00 per year.
Israel – $32,200.00 per year.

Facts taken from the CIA Fact Book.

Plantagenet on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 3:40 pm 



Egypt isn’t going to be saved by the US providing more foreign aid.

Arthur on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 3:41 pm 



Israel is probably the last mistake the jews will ever be allowed to make, after Palestine will have become a Turkish province again, after the Clean Breakers paved the way for that event to happen. Maybe Madagaskar was not such a bad idea after all. In 20 years time the majority will probably be relocated in a new jewish state, like Upstate New York. The new Hillbillies, so to speak.

Arthur on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 3:45 pm 



“Egypt isn’t going to be saved by the US providing more foreign aid.”

The US has zero intent of ‘saving’ Egypt just for the sake of Egypt. It is just that Egypt happens to be Israel’s neighbour and then there is the Suezcanal. Other than these two factors the US has no interests in Egypt.

DC on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 4:49 pm 



Q/Egypt has fallen into chaos again and our traditional mainstream media once again have succeeded in missing the fundamental causes of that nation’s problems – runaway population growth, declining natural resources.

Exactly, like I mentioned in that other article, Egypt is not suffering from a PO crisis per se, but rather an overpopulation crisis. MSM occasionally mention lack of jobs, food prices etc, but they often mention them only in passing and never say these things are symptoms of that unmentionable problem-population. For the MSM, its always about, the so-called ‘Muslim Brotherhood’. Or radical this or that. Always about political labels, especially to amerikans. The coverage wont even change when 50% of the Egyptian population shows up in Italy asking for ‘asylum’ in Europe.

Ricardo on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 5:08 pm 



These countries will soon be exporting their populations into europe, what a catastrophic world I foresee.

Arthur on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 6:23 pm 



Unnecessary worries. The Meditarainean is not the Rio Grande. The EU has completed a very effective fence between Greece and Turkey, the only remaining leak. Fortress Europe is a reality. It is very difficult to enter the EU illegally. However, the damage is done anyway as a result of decades of cummulative immigration follies, combined with much higher birth rates of the newcomers as well as the insane government promoted idea off turning women into tax paying workhorses. Merkel and Sarkozy openly declared multuculturalism as ‘failed’. That’s an important signal. I do not expect hundreds of thousands of Egyptians being allowed to enter the EU.

Mike on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 6:33 pm 



Stop talking sense DC, you know it hurts my head.

GregT on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 7:31 pm 



DC,

“Egypt is not suffering from a PO crisis per se, but rather an overpopulation crisis”

The same can be said for the entire planet.

As oil becomes more expensivive and less available the same will happen in the rest of the world. Oil is the lifeblood of our economies and our food supplies.

Egypt is a precursor of things to come.

bobinget on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 8:00 pm 



KSA is making good on a multi Billion dollar aid pledge to Egypt. Without this oil, immediate chaos.
Where one might ask, will all that oil come from?

Meanwhile, in Syria, Hezbollah, helping government forces are preparing to slaughter what remains of Allepo’s population. THis will inspire more retaliation into Lebanon’s Sunni and Hezbollah strongholds.

It Turkey, Muslims are totally blown away by what they consider another blow at Islam.

The German word “Shitstorm” comes to mind.

Arthur on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 8:59 pm 



“Meanwhile, in Syria, Hezbollah, helping government forces are preparing to slaughter what remains of Allepo’s population.”

You probably mean the UK financed foreign McJihadist mercenaries, responsible for instigating the conflict and 100k deaths (courtesy info whistle blower Roland Dumas, 90.lol)? You are aware that the vast majority of the Syrians: Sunnis and Shi’ites and Christians and secularists support Assad? You have a stake in this fight? Are you posting from an internet cafe in Aleppo.lol?

“It Turkey, Muslims are totally blown away by what they consider another blow at Islam. ”

My information is that most Turks are not really that keen on intervening in Syria.

Fortunately the ‘rebels’ are losing and the US/UK are currently without strategy, which is probably in their own best interest, since designing functioning strategies is not exactly the fort of the Clouseaus in Washington/London.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/syrian-opposition-in-disarray/5342272

BillT on Thu, 11th Jul 2013 1:25 am 



Really? Fortress Europe? Funny, the Americans thought that also until the government decided to ignore the hundreds of thousands pouring over the border.

Then there are the ‘boat people’ from Cuba that still, after what, 40 years, find their way to Florida. Miami is now Little Havana.

No, Europe may think it is safe from immigration, but it is not. Cannot be. Too many border countries, too many mountains, rivers, oceans, that are porous.

Arthur on Thu, 11th Jul 2013 6:24 am 



Bill, Europe is not America. Americans are stuck with their ‘nation of immigrants’ self-image, their government and media circles that are owned by those that seek to replace the Euro-Americans. There are no nationalist parties in the US like in Europe and they are growing. And we have a more favourable geography. The borders with Russia and Ukraine are sealed. And now the only landbridge with Turkey is closed as well. What remains are a few boats that arrive at Lampedusa, but thats a few thousand invaders per year, peanuts. Far more important in numbers are these forced marriages, where women from muslim Africa are coupled to men already in Europe. But thats all manageable. And there is always the option of forced repatriation, just like European colonials were thrown out from Asia and Africa after WW2. According to people like Buchanan and PCR the US will be a third world country by early 2020s and will have political, economic and military clout accordingly. That will be the moment when the real liberation of the Anglo-Soviet onslaught against Europe will begin and we can become serious again about European civilization. Until that moment arrives all we need to do is not provoke Americans, build as much renewable energy infrastructure as possible and wait for the moment that the youknowwhose have sawn the branch they themselves are sitting on. Then Europeans will open a bureau on Ellis Island, the jewish Emma Lazarus inscription about the ‘huddled masses’ will be replaced and only the best and brightest Euro-Americans will be allowed to return to Europe (Russia, Ukraine). Jews need not apply. There are not enough Europeans anymore to populate both Euro-Siberia and North-America, something has got to give and that will be the last European colony USA, that will morph into a sort of South-Africa with white homelands. In the end many Americans will behave like Bill and give up on America. Turkey will administer the entire Middle-East, including Palestina.