Peak oil’s death has been greatly exaggerated

I think it is more the case that the majority of contributors (and editors and tech staff) are just burned out (sorry for that pun…). It takes a lot of effort to research and write quality articles, have reviewers whack at them for awhile, and then deal with the comments that come in (some useful, some not). I can think of many examples where folks just ran out of things they were passionate to write about. Even a regular (until recently) guest contributor stopped publishing on his own blog for this reason. Some have been pulled in different directions (including myself) with jobs and family and such. In short, there is probably no single reason. But as this is a collaborative effort of many individuals (and indeed with some differences of opinion on some issues), we just decided we no longer had critical mass and wanted to end at this still somewhat high point rather than let it morph into something unrecognizable.

As for the frac-slays-TOD theory, that is certainly expected given the way this has been portrayed by most in the media: technological advances overcoming depletion. Closer to reality is that, while there have been some advances, it is mostly that continued high prices made the application of pre-existing technology worth the financial risk of drilling expensive, rapidly depleting wells on land that one must pay royalties on in addition. We have had some recent posts indicating that well performance has been getting worse instead of better, so even at current prices, the future is uncertain. At the same time, US consumption is still down from what it was prior to 2008, and the net result is a lot of feel-good myths about imminent US energy independence.

But although this has played a role in the decline of page views on TOD, I don’t think it really factored into our decision. With blog fatigue setting in, maybe we are just too weary to swat it all down — or have decided that it’s not overly critical to do so. Many of us are looking instead beyond immediate supply issues and are becoming more interested by the overall relationship between economies and more expensive energy, including environmental limitations.

Critics of the theory of peak oil will argue that higher prices will always result in new technological advances that will increase production or otherwise improve the efficiency with which fossil fuels are transformed into energy. But if Joules Burn is right, the long-run “truth” of peak oil is currently being obscured by a short-term unsustainable boost in production. And if that’s the case, one could argue that, now, more than ever, we need voices disputing the new complacency while we still have time to move more aggressively to renewable sources of energy before we hit the real crunch.

But the Oil Drum won’t be part of that mix. Someone else is going to need to step up.

Salon

7 Comments on "Peak oil’s death has been greatly exaggerated"

Arthur on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 2:33 pm 



Probably good news for this site, if the size of the readership is important.

I noticed btw that average number of readers of my blog has come down from 200 to 100 per day over the last few months. Peakoil fatigue?

BillT on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 3:45 pm 



Perhaps they cannot afford internet hookup, Arthur? I suspect that activity is going to drop more and more as wages go down or disappear. My connection here in Manila costs $23 per month. If my income does not beat inflation (hasn’t for years) I too may have to drop the internet habit. After all, I can call the US for $0.34/min or send a letter for $0.70. And, I would free up hours every day to do other things, perhaps more useful.

And, with the NSA recording everything, and the US trying to get control of the net, it may not be available anyway.^_^

c8 on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 4:12 pm 



Some of that blogger exhaustion is because the core group of TOD never really wanted “outsider” contributions of main articles from their readership. There are many intelligent folks on TOD’s roster of readers who could create great articles regularly- they were never asked. This demise is due to the editorial staff deciding to put “control” over every other priority.

Arthur on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 4:14 pm 



“Perhaps they cannot afford internet hookup, Arthur? ”

Everything is suffering… car sales, holidays to Farawayistan, but NOT sales of digital online gadgets:

http://regmedia.co.uk/2012/04/25/forrester_1.png

The car is out, welcome to the digital age, the world of the megabyte rather than the gallon.

I think that the shale business has put the issue of peak oil on the backburner and hence reduced interest in energy blogs. And now a US company has found a method of extracting much more oil from existing wells (see another post here today) than the conventional 35%. The oil age is going to last much longer that we anticipated, but at a high price level, which paves the way for all sorts of innovations, that allows us to wring to oil sponge even more.

“And, with the NSA recording everything, and the US trying to get control of the net, it may not be available anyway.”

The US can monitor the internet, not control it. It was the US military, oh irony, which designed the internet (TCP/IP) such, that it could not be destroyed by a nuclear attack on a center. They got what they wished for allright.lol The economic importance of the internet is so big that no government can afford to switch it off. It is going to be the backbone of the new economy.

rollin on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 7:08 pm 



If consumption keeps falling it will still not be enough to make the US energy independent. A schism needs to occur that dramatically drops consumption in order for that to ever have a chance at happening.

Energy independence is a phantasm anyway, since as these newly affordable technologies come to their own geologic conclusions there had better be some other energy sources in place or there will be a hard fall.

I can see though that it is tough to keep writing about peak oil in the current environment, easier to write about economic and environmental disturbances.

Plantagenet on Wed, 10th Jul 2013 8:48 pm 



Obama’s “drill-baby-drill” energy policy is working out pretty well for the oil biz. After thousands of wells drilled and fracked, we’re looking at 20,000+ more wells being drilled for fracking by the end of Obama’s second term.

Michael Dwyer on Thu, 18th Jul 2013 2:59 am 



I hope the ASPO US activities continue. They too are changing with the times, becoming more activist and less theoretical, IMHO.
Same changes are happening in PO groups in Australia.
The worm will turn in time, it always does. Perhaps a new younger group will continue on when it again becomes clear the S… is going to hit the fan.
Looking back at the good work done; there are few today out there in the public who don’t have some vague idea about what “Peak Oil” is.