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Page added on July 7, 2013
Eye-popping predictions on world population
The news on the population front sounds bad: Birth rates are not dropping as fast as expected, and we are likely to end up with an even bigger world population by the end of the century. The last revision of the U.N. World Population Prospects, two years ago, predicted just over 10 billion people by 2100. The latest revision, just out, predicts almost 11 billion.
That’s a truly alarming number because it’s hard to see how the world can sustain another 4 billion people. (The current global population is 7 billion.) But the headline number is deceptive and conceals another, grimmer reality. Three-quarters of that growth will come in just one continent: Africa.
The African continent has 1.1 billion people. By the year 2100, it will have 4.1 billion – more than a third of the world’s total population. Or rather that is what it will have if there has not already been a huge population dieback in the region. At some point, however, systems will break down under the strain of trying to feed such rapidly growing populations, and people will start to die in large numbers.
It has happened before – to Ireland in the 1840s, for example – and it can happen again.
Between now and 2100, six countries are expected to account for half of the world’s projected population increase: India, Nigeria, the United States, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania and Uganda. Four of the six are in central Africa.
In this area, where fertility is still high, the numbers are quite astonishing. Most countries will at least triple in population; some, like Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia, are predicted to grow fivefold. That is on top of populations that have already tripled, quadrupled or quintupled in the past half-century. Uganda had 5 million people at independence in 1962; it is projected to have 205 million in 2100.
The numbers are simply preposterous. Niger, a desert country whose limited agricultural land might feed 10 million people with good management, a lot of investment and good luck with the weather, already has twice as many as that. By the end of the century it will have 20 times as many: 204 million people.
All these numbers are based on assumptions about declining birth rates: If we all just carried on with the birth rates of today, there would be 25 billion people on this planet by the end of the century. The key question is: How fast is fertility declining – and all my numbers are from the U.N.’s “medium estimates,” the moderately optimistic ones. The “high estimate” for Niger gives it 270 million people by 2100.
It makes no practical difference. Even the “low estimate” of 150 million people in Niger by 2100 is never actually going to happen. That is 15 times too many people for the available land, and Niger certainly cannot afford to import large amounts of food. Even without reckoning in the huge negative effect of climate change, large numbers of people in Niger (and quite a few other African countries) will begin starving long before that.
So the real picture that emerges from the U.N.’s data is rather different. It is a world where two-thirds of the countries will have declining populations by 2100. China and Russia will each be down by a third, and only the United States among the major developed countries will still have a growing population, up from 320 million to 460 million.
In terms of climate change, the huge but ultimately self-limiting population growth in Africa will have little effect, for these are not industrialized countries with high rates of consumption and show no signs of becoming so. The high economic growth rates of African countries in recent years are driven mostly by high commodity prices and will probably not be sustained.
It is the developed and rapidly developing countries whose activities put huge pressure on the global environment, not only by their greenhouse gas emissions but also by their destructive styles of farming and fishing. Their populations are relatively stable, but their actual numbers are already very large, and each individual consumes 5 or 10 times as much as the average African.
So the frightening numbers in the U.N.’s latest population predictions are mostly of concern to Africa – but the rest of the world is still in deep, deep trouble on many other fronts.
17 Comments on "Eye-popping predictions on world population"
Ricardo on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 1:15 pm
Quantity over quality is the rule we like to use today.
noobtube on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 2:00 pm
Why is it, that every time there is an article on overpopulation, the first place that is discussed is Africa… as if Africans are destroying the Earth.
The worst population problems are in the places where they whine about it the most…
Europe and the United States.
But, it’s funny how they never want to do their part to solve the overpopulation “problem.”
Instead of the master polluters disappearing, it’s always the poor Africans (as if that would make any difference anyway).
It is just disguised racism and racial hatred that got us in this mess in the first place.
Frank Kling on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 2:00 pm
Nothing will be done to mitigate population over-shoot. The US ruling class continues to believe we need population growth in order to create more consumers that will in turn perpetuate endless growth- that is until catastrophe strikes. Mankind is well along toward destroying our only homes life support system. Bill Gates may live in a 55,000 square foot fortified compound, but even he must breathe oxygen and consume calories.
‘Beware the beast man, for he is the devil’s pawn. Alone among God’s primates, he kills for sport, or lust or greed. Yes, he will murder his brother to possess his brother’s land. Let him not breed in great numbers, for he will make a desert of his home and yours. Shun him. Exterminate him post haste: For he is the harbinger of death.’
Frank Kling on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 2:15 pm
African population over-shoot is indeed part of the problem. Why do you think 1,000,000 Rwandans were murdered in a civil war- no blaming whitey on this one. Because the country is grossly overpopulated and by killing your neighbor you could expropriate his land. Look at Madagascar where the rate of species extinctions is just sickening. The facts are the facts.
Arthur on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 2:21 pm
“Why is it, that every time there is an article on overpopulation, the first place that is discussed is Africa… as if Africans are destroying the Earth.”
Where are the highest birth rates?
“Europe and the United States. But, it’s funny how they never want to do their part to solve the overpopulation “problem.””
Really? The Euro’s (with Chinese and Japanese) are the only ones with a voluntarily below-replacement birth rate.
“It is just disguised racism and racial hatred that got us in this mess in the first place.”
And you love us, right? It is useless to blame anyone for the mess. It makes more sense to see what is coming and run for the hills (if any). The competence of the West created a fossil fuel based world that everybody wants to be part of. In that world there are no good or bad guys, just me-too guys.
BillT on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 2:47 pm
If you want to see the NET growth per country as of 2012:
http://www.os-connect.com/pop/p3n.asp
Really doesn’t matter who or what. We will soon peak in that area also.
J-Gav on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 4:27 pm
I predict there will be 1 trillion people on the planet by the year 2637! Can I prove it? Of course not, that’s what makes long-term predictions so much fun.
rollin on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 6:28 pm
As long as factors of food and water availability are not taken into account populations will still keep rising. Nature and economics both put limits on these franken-predictions.
I predict one billion people or less by 2100.
Kenz300 on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 6:59 pm
The worlds poorest people are having the most children…..
They have not figured out the connection between family size and their poverty yet.
slipperyslope on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 7:18 pm
And the US isn’t making it any easier for women to have access to birth control. I wonder what those fellas are thinking.
ronpatterson on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 7:53 pm
Noobtoob wrote: “It is just disguised racism and racial hatred that got us in this mess in the first place.”
That is the biggest line of BS I have read in years. Two things were the driving force of overpopulation and overshoot. The industrial revolution, powered by massive amounts of very cheap fossil fuel, enabled us to produce food and employment for massive amounts of people. So the population just naturally exploded.
The second thing was human nature, or more correctly, our animal nature. Every species on earth multiplies to the limits of its existence. The limits of human existence exploded with the industrial revolution, the medical revolution and the green revolution. So our population exploded simply because it could.
But of course the human population of the earth must soon collapse, for reasons most people on this list already know. But of course a few do not.
Frank Kling on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 8:20 pm
“I would like to share a revelation I had during my time among the human race. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you are not true mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium- a symbiotic relationship- with the surrounding environment, but you humans do not. You move to an area and multiply ad infinitum until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you survive is to metastasize unspoiled areas. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same destructive pattern- a virus. Human beings are a pernicious disease- a cancer of the Earth. You are a plague and we are the cure.”
~~~The Matrix~~~
DC on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 9:06 pm
Good to see the United Snakes included in the list of 3rd world toilets that are leading the over-population charge. Like Proff Al Bartlett said in his video, the United States sends family planning aid to countries with a lower population growth rate than than the US itself.
North America is overpopulated right now.
The US itself is also headed for a population crash. North America, despite propaganda to the contrary, cannot support unlimited numbers of legal and illegal immigrants. However, in both Canada and the US, its official policy to welcome over 1.25 million ‘new’ net economic migrants each and every year. Mexico tries to relieve its population\economic crisis by shipping surplus population northwards to become gardeners and waiters and gang-bangers.
Official policy means we have to build the ~ of a New York City ever 7 years in Can\US to accommodate the migrants, or if you prefer, nearly 5 Torontos every decade. And that is not even including Mexico.
Kervennic on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 9:27 pm
Niger will never reach 200 milion but there will be 200 mijjion Nigerian… in Europe.
Arthur on Sun, 7th Jul 2013 9:45 pm
“Niger will never reach 200 milion but there will be 200 mijjion Nigerian… in Europe.”
The FN will probably go through the roof, electorally speaking, before that happens.
nick kendrick on Mon, 8th Jul 2013 7:58 am
Your right about the virus, the world population needs to halve and stay there!! We’re not the only species on the planet, scrap child benefit everywhere and give tax breaks to those of us that don’t breed, drastic action needs to be taken.
Kenz300 on Mon, 8th Jul 2013 3:17 pm
Here is an idea that needs to catch on………
Balls on the Line For Planet Earth – World Vasectomy Day | Peak Oil News and Message Boards
http://peakoil.com/enviroment/balls-on-the-line-for-planet-earth-world-vasectomy-day