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Page added on June 22, 2013
Natural gas to rival oil as road fuel: IEA
Natural gas is set to emerge as a significant new transportation fuel over the next five years, raising the prospect of a challenge to oil’s dominance in the sector, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.
Already, gas demand in road transport grew tenfold between 2000 and 2010, but cheap gas in the U.S. as a result of the boom in production of shale gas, and concerns over air pollution and oil dependency in China, could help it develop into a more mainstream fuel, the IEA said.
In its five-year gas outlook, the Paris-based energy watchdog said it expects natural gas use in road transportation to rise to 98 billion cubic meters by 2018, covering around 10% of incremental energy needs in the transport sector. According to the IEA, this shift will do more to reduce the medium-term growth in oil demand than both biofuels and electric cars combined.
“Gas is already a major fuel in power generation, but the next five years will also see it emerging as a significant transportation fuel, driven by abundant supplies as well as concerns about oil dependency and air pollution,” said Maria van der Hoeven, the IEA’s executive director.
Further down the line, the IEA said gas had significant potential for use in heavy-duty transport such as freight and rail, though such developments are unlikely over the next five years.
Despite this new demand factor, the IEA also highlighted challenges facing gas in all major regions, including the resilience of coal in North America, weak demand in Europe and production difficulties in the Middle East and Africa.
Although the agency still sees the coming five years as a “Golden Age” of gas, its latest medium-term forecast reduces the five-year demand projection by 75 billion cubic meters compared with its 2012 outlook.
Nonetheless, world natural gas demand is expected to rise by 15.6% over the next five years to reach 3.962 trillion cubic meters, an increase from today’s level that’s equivalent to the current gas production in the Middle East.
China is to remain the main driver of demand, accounting for 30% of global growth over the next five years. The country is expected to become the world’s fourth-largest gas producer, but will still absorb a third of the expected increase in liquefied natural gas supply and all of the increase in output from Central Asia, the IEA said.
The U.S. is expected to continue to dominate supply growth, accounting for more than a fifth of the increase in global gas production as it continues to exploit its reserves of shale gas.
U.S. production has surged over the past several years, thanks to a technique known as hydraulic fracturing which has enabled companies to extract natural gas trapped in shale rock formations. The success enjoyed by the U.S. has increased global focus on unconventional gas, however the IEA said no major development is expected to take place outside of North America and possibly China before 2018.
Nonetheless, persistent interest in shale gas and other unconventional gas resources could prepare the ground for unconventional production to take off after 2020, the IEA said.
16 Comments on "Natural gas to rival oil as road fuel: IEA"
Plantagenet on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 4:36 am
Good to hear that NG will grow in importance in the transportation sector. President Obama proclaimed that the USA has a 100 year supply of NG, so we should be safe switching our truck fleet over to safe, clean NG.
BillT on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 4:53 am
More bullshit from the petro owned IEA.
There are about 1 billion cars, trucks and buses in the world today. If even 10% of them ever become NG burners, I would be surprised. The natgas bubble is going to explode and blow these dreams out of the sky.
Arthur on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 7:02 am
http://peakoil.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=68378
EROEI Marcellus shale NG is a surprising 85!
DC on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 8:59 am
I wonder, has the IEA done any projections as to what demand would be if NG were to supplant oil@ 10% market? 20%? 50%? how about 75-100%? What level of extraction would be required all along that curve to 100%? Has the IEA taken the time to estimate the level of demand that would create, and if there is anywhere near enough to cover it? Have they considered what 50-100% of market share going to power cars would do the non-car sectors and users of NG?
And while they were not running of those projections, maybe they also weren’t lookng at what the happen to the cost of NG on its merry ride to 100% replacement of oil. Nor I am sure, would take any time to consider what exactly they hope to accomplish with replacing one toxic fossil-fuel with another that is for most intents, basically identical.
Fossil-fools seem to like to parrot that NG is somehow ‘clean’ or even worse, ‘green’, when its just a different kind of dirty. But fossil-fools think all ‘alternates’ are magic. Hydrogen, bio-fools, NG, whatever. As long as it fits in the tank of there SUVs, is toxic, keeps fouling the air and water, and is dispensed by global energy cartels from ‘gas stations’, sprinkled along ‘freeways’ that go nowhere important, is the only thing that matters….
J-Gav on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 10:12 am
The coming economic collapse should put a damper on demand for a while but the cornucopians will still be looking silly by the 2020s.
Arthur on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 11:05 am
The worst thing that could happen is treat NG als the continuation of oil BAU. The only sensible thing to do is to use the remainder of what is left of fossil fuel to set up a new energy base. Germany produced 61% of its electricity from renewables on June 16th, proving that it can be done and no doubt they will achieve 100% spikes in a couple of years from now, during sunny & windy days. But it will take decades before an integrated production/storage system will be in place that can remotely produce what fossil can produce today. That means that driving in (e-vehicles) should be the least of our concerns. Gas and oil will be useful in the future, even after the end of the fossil age. I mean, stones were still in demand, even after the end of the stone age 😉
Mike on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 12:10 pm
Ah Arthur your blind optimism for a magic new technology to keep this clusterfup going is kind of endearing. Your right though, oil and gas will be useful to the few million that remain at the end of the 21st century.
Arthur on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 12:31 pm
Mike, do you have any reason/info to doubt this?
http://www.solarserver.com/solar-magazine/solar-news/current/2013/kw25/solar-pv-wind-reach-60-of-mid-day-german-electricity-output-on-june-16th.html
Blind faith is not a virtue, but neither is nihilism.
BillT on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 1:26 pm
The biggest reason is that it comes from a promoter of solar. An advertisement rag for the industry. Their numbers are no more real than those coming out of OPEC.
And that 61% is the optimum time on the sunny days … not 24/7/365. And they were made with oil energy, not solar energy. Solar does not have the NET energy to reproduce itself AND supply a reasonable EROEI.
Kenz300 on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 2:31 pm
Wind and solar keeps growing in use around the world.
The price of wind and solar keeps dropping and its safe and clean.
The price of oil, coal and nuclear keeps rising and causing environmental damage.
The world has begun its transition to safe, clean alternative energy sources.
Arthur on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 2:33 pm
“The biggest reason is that it comes from a promoter of solar. ”
If you actually would have read the article then you wold have noticed that the data comes from the German government, not the industry.
“And that 61% is the optimum time on the sunny days … not 24/7/365.”
Nobody claims anything else. But this is 2013, there is still some time left to make substantial progress. It is a matter of years before everybody has panels on his roof. Price of solar is expected to drop further to a very affordable $0.37/Watt by 2017:
http://www.cleanenergyauthority.com/solar-energy-news/pv-to-fall-to-37-cents-per-watt-061913
Soon 100% generation of electricity for Germany will be a fact. The main concern now is storage and grid capacity. And they are working on it as we speak. There are many subseas cables planned and installed towards Norway, from Holland, Britain and Germany. Norway has massive storage capacity.
“Solar does not have the NET energy to reproduce itself AND supply a reasonable EROEI.”
You keep repeating that nonsense in order to keep your black nihilistic vision alive, but you never back that claim up with a single article/study. Neither will you do so now, because these articles do not exist. And you know it.
Arthur on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 2:39 pm
This is the solution for the storage problem:
http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2013/06/15/norned/
Have similar post “BritNed”.
These are already in place and many more are planned. During the day surplus solar energy can be send to Norway to pump UP water into the many huge lakes there and at night hydro energy is send from Norway to the rest of Europe when there is little demand.
The US should do similar things and use the Rockies for that purpose.
The future of the car is bleak, but not necessarily that of ‘lightweight’ domestic electricity use or light industry.
Arthur on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 3:05 pm
http://energyskeptic.com/2013/2012-global-eroi/
This and other similar sources state that EROEI of wind is ca. 18 (which is perfect) and solar 7, which is not great, but workable. And besides, so far with solar the push has been a technology push towards maximum efficiency (converson % solar radiation – electricity), not cost or EROEI, leading to expensive and elaborate monocristaline solar cells. But there are als much cheaper solar film solutions, that have indeed lower yield, but at much lower cost and subsequent EROEI. The expectation of further cost reduction up to 37 cents in 2017 will go hand in hand with improving EROEI. In the end there will be not much difference between 1930 oil of EROEI-100 or 2020 solar with EROEI-10.
rollin on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 3:23 pm
As demand for NG rises and production levels out then falls, price rise will cancel any thought of using more NG.
Already coal is supplanting NG for power production due to a relatively small price rise.
rollin on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 3:26 pm
Arthur, the manufactured price in China may be about 40 cents per watt but it still costs $6 a watt to buy and install in the US.
Arthur on Sat, 22nd Jun 2013 3:44 pm
rollin, I am sorry to hear that. Here in Holland it is less than 1 euro per watt, **including** the frame, as you can see:
http://zonnemarkt.nl/zonnepanelen/
(for larger panels).