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Page added on June 16, 2013
Reasons Mexico’s Oil Production Has Stagnated
Mexico´s crude production peaked at 3.455 Mbopd in 2004 and has already declined to 2.568 Mbopd, (Feb 28, 2013). I believe it will not be possible to return to former production levels, nor even to the present official forecast of 3 million barrels per day, because of the following reasons:
The giant and supergiant oil reservoirs, like Cantarell, discovered more than 30 years ago,were produced
irrationally at accelerated rates and are now in an advanced stage of decline or are practically exhausted.
Other major oil fields, like Ku-Maloob-Zaap, are expected to start declining in the next few years.
The oil fields that will be discovered in the future will be smaller,more difficult and costly to produce.
To date the potential production of shale oil is not known with any certainty. Rigorous evaluation with sound
scientific, technical and economic basis will be needed before starting such development and production.
The rate of increased production from new oil discoveries will be slower than the rate of decline of existing mature
oil fields because of delays and inefficiencies in development.
Because of these considerations, I believe that neither opening up exploration and production of mature fields to private investment nor applying new technologies to development of unconventional resources (shale oil and tight oil sands) will be able to add significantly to oil production.All that can be hoped for is that the decline will abate and production will remain well above domestic refining capacity of about 1.5million barrels per day in order to avoid having to import feedstock.
Increasing investments in the belief that they will lead to increased overall production is a grave strategic error. It will continue to cause enormous value destruction for PEMEX and Mexico.
Comments and discussion of further details are welcome by contacting raulgonzalez.aspomexico@gmail.com
Raúl González García, Professional Geological Engineer
Director of Mexpetrol Argentina, 1996-1997
Sub Director of Exploration, PEMEX, 1991-1995
7 Comments on "Reasons Mexico’s Oil Production Has Stagnated"
Juan Pueblo on Sun, 16th Jun 2013 2:44 pm
Mexico has passed its peak and future declines are inevitable. They might get a small temporary increase in production if they open up the oil industry to more foreign participation, but they will never reach their old peak again. Cantarell is irreplaceable.
DC on Sun, 16th Jun 2013 3:19 pm
So, your saying, oil is a finite resource? That we are not pumping oil back into the ground, that even the largest fields can run out? Besides, I am a little unclear how a field can be developed ‘irrationally’. To me, the notion of using oil to build and power a billion planet wrecking mobile gas-burning trash heaps is not a rational act to begin with. But thats where most of cantarells ‘production’ went.
IF you think Mexico has a stability problems now, wait till it becomes a net importer of oil. Through import from *who* is a good question as well.
BillT on Sun, 16th Jun 2013 3:27 pm
Mexico is slated to be part of the North American Union soon. Then it’s oil will come from Canada. No? Better keep up with the cross border agreements being put in place. You don’t think the government balking on immigration is by accident do you? They intend to have one low wage ‘union’ from the Arctic to Central America.
Rusty Baker on Sun, 16th Jun 2013 5:11 pm
BillT, I suggest you please take off your tin-foil hat. This is a serious peak oil website, not a wacko-conspiracy-theory site. Your comment would be much better suited on infowars.com.
BillT on Mon, 17th Jun 2013 1:26 am
Rusty, I suggest you do some research on the treaties signed in the last 10 years with Canada and Mexico and take off those blinders and rose colored glasses. Do you really think that the inaction against immigrants and the attempts to make them legal mean nothing?
BillT on Mon, 17th Jun 2013 1:39 am
“…Before you brush this aside (As I did years ago!), ask yourself why, exactly, is the US government refusing to seal the southern border with Mexico? Why?…” – See more at: http://faultlineusa.blogspot.com/2013/05/a-north-american-union-really-j-d.html#sthash.OZcHb0zS.dpuf
If you think this plan was abandoned after Bush left, you are wrong. It is just not on the MSM radar.
Fulton J. Waterloo on Mon, 17th Jun 2013 9:15 pm
Rusty: you are the one living in a dream world. Even if, for the sake of argument, we forget immigration, American Corporations have made a huge windfall exploiting Mexican labor “in situ.” $3.75 an hour to build cars, which are then railroaded across the border to sell to Americans for $20,000. Before you start that (RACIST) “those people are fortunate that We are “giving” them work,” YOU try living on $30 a day. Get back to us when YOU have scraped the tinfoil off of YOUR head…