Peak Oil is You
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Page added on April 15, 2013
Peak Oil: Tar Sands To The Rescue—Not!
An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Kjell Aleklett:
The IEA now considers that conventional crude oil production reached its maximum in 2008 and that it will decline by 2035. We, the IEA and IHS CERA all agree that crude oil production from currently producing fields is declining by 0.4 Mb/d per year and that the oil industry will not be able to compensate for this decline with new conventional crude oil production. We see that the total of current production and planned new production from the Canadian oil sands gives a level of possible production in 2020 of 3.2 Mb/d. This means that 15 years of expansion of Canadian oil sands production does not replace even one year’s decline in production from existing conventional crude oilfields. At the same time we can note that it is doubtful if, in 2020, there will be sufficient refinery capacity to handle 3.2 Mb/d.
Canada’s oil sands will not stop Peak Oil.
The news isn’t any matter from shale (tight) oil production in the Bakken and Eagle Ford basins, either—Happy Talk from industry shills noted and notwithstanding. And the Arctic? Seriously?
Denial remains a strategy, as does barreling headlong into a wall. Not the best of choices, but they remain available.
Math being what it is; reality being what it is; and geology being what it is as well, perhaps we might persuade at least a few more “leaders” in industry, media, and government to start explaining reality to the public so that more of us can get on with the essential business of planning?
16 Comments on "Peak Oil: Tar Sands To The Rescue—Not!"
J-Gav on Mon, 15th Apr 2013 11:03 am
Take into account EROEI, the facts that Giant fields will be experiencing accelerating depletion over the coming years and that overall world demand continues to grow (albeit more slowly than before) and you will understand that we won’t need to wait till 2020 before feeling how reality bites, much less 2035…
SOS on Mon, 15th Apr 2013 11:58 am
This article is absolute junk. But the question begs how would a typical american know?
SOS on Mon, 15th Apr 2013 12:00 pm
EROI for oil is now around 100:1 if calculated properly. It is this EROI that is providing all the wealth to develop the resource and get it to market.
shortonoil on Mon, 15th Apr 2013 12:49 pm
The ERoEI of the world’s petroleum reserve can be calculated from three quantities:
1) The world’s crude oil production distribution (logistic or skewed logistic),
2) The fundamental physical properties of petroleum (found in any engineering handbook),
3) The entropy production of the petroleum production system.
The result of those calculations are shown in the following graph:
http://s1321.photobucket.com/user/TheHillsGroup/media/graph13_zps6ed1a0bd.png.html?sort=3&o=0
The Hill’s Group
Kenz300 on Mon, 15th Apr 2013 1:12 pm
Why we love oil companies — NOT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr7qalUUmsk
BillT on Mon, 15th Apr 2013 1:28 pm
We passed peak oil. We now have stuff called TAR sands, Frak oil-like stuff and techie dream liquids, being called ‘oil’. All have their limits and will hit them before 2020.
Americans certainly know that we have passed peak oil, subliminally, if not actually. The price of gas is the big tip-off. The price of everything else increasing is another. The lack of jobs is another. The lack of money is another.
Growth is over for the Western countries. It is slowing everywhere else in the world. Soon the first domino will fall and the result will be the end of oil and the Western ‘way of life’ we have enjoyed for the last 100 years. IT was all built on cheap plentiful energy. That era is history.
Arthur on Mon, 15th Apr 2013 1:38 pm
EROI is an overestimated/confusing indicator because of it’s nonlinear (logarithmic) character.
Every value above 10 is fine.
eroi 100 means: 99% consumption, 1% production
eroi 10 means: 90% consumption, 10% production.
Difference no big deal.
Solar and certainly wind are about just as good as oil.
Arthur on Mon, 15th Apr 2013 1:53 pm
“Growth is over for the Western countries.”
That is true in terms of miles driven and kwh consumed as well as ton’s of concrete, asphalt, steel, etc. So what?
The West is an adult and adults don’t grow anymore, but can nevertheless remain adult for many decades to come.
Next for the West will be the consolidation/maintenance phase: a slow decline in parameters mentioned, demand destruction, smaller cars, car sharing or even two-wheelers, no more new asphalt, home insulation, shoving 10 solar panels for 80$ per piece in your shopping cart at Walmart/IKEA, 80 watt desktop/tv’s replaced by 10 watt, 13 inch tablets, cancelling Acapulco/Aspen/Spane/Alps vacations, people getting their drivers license past 30, living with parents until 30.
Life will remain OK in the West, no Mad Max collapse, die-off is a joke.
Energy consumption by 2030 will be back at 1995 levels according to the most pessimistic estimates:
http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2013/03/29/energy-watch-group-updates-their-2008-scenario/
That’s fine.
Stephen on Mon, 15th Apr 2013 4:00 pm
I think its beyond time to have a serious discussion with the public on how we use energy.
I think the first things we need to do:
*Flex work hours / allow more work from home / telecommute – pay by productivity = eliminate 9 AM and 5 PM commute gridlock
* Tax gasoline in the USA up to European Prices
* End globalization of manufacturing goods – Assemble close to where they are going to be sold even if the labor price is higher.
* Implement a ban on freight trucking over a certain distance – require a portion of it to be by boat or railroad (Boats and Trains use far less fuel).
* Create a series of forums in each city on how to work to re-localize each economy.
* Expand use of renewable fuels – even if these don’t deliver as high of an EROEI or aren’t available in big quantities, they can still help reduce the petroleum demand some. Try to focus on ones that produce higher quantities and have higher EROEIs such as:
* Sugarcane / Switchgrass Ethanol
* Biodiesel from Algae and Camelina
* Cellustic Butanol
* Etc
* Educate the public that they will have to re-learn some skills of their ancestors to survive and they may be subject to the following problems and/or again:
* Lack of fuel
* Rationing
* Reduced technology
* Transport by horse and buggy
* Famine
* Having to farm for food locally
* Boom and bust cycles
* Limited, no, or negative economic growth for a long period of time
* Increased unemployment
* Debts that can no longer be paid
* Rebuilding the retirement system to not depend on infinite growth in the stock market
* Power outages
* Stoppage of some utility services.
* And more
shortonoil on Mon, 15th Apr 2013 4:38 pm
The ERoEI is confusing because it represents energy returned on work invested “at the well head”. It does not include processing and distribution energy costs. The graph above is an inverse logistic function.
James A. Hellams on Tue, 16th Apr 2013 12:33 am
Regarding the comment from Stephen on making trucking use rail and boats, because they are more energy efficient; don’t forget the passenger rail services.
WHEN peak oil begins to hit hard, aviation and highway based transportation will take huge hits leading to their eventual demise.
Aviation and highway transportation will continue to be heavily dependent on oil for energy; and will not be able to completely free them selves from this slavery to oil for energy. The aviation and highway based transportation will collapse from not being able to free them selves from their almost total dependency on oil for energy.
ONLY rail transportation (FREIGHT AND PASSENGER) services can completely free them selves from ALL dependency on oil for energy. This they can do through electrification (catenary and third rail) of all trackage in the US, and every where else.
The electric power needed for electrification of the railroads can be generated directly and indirectly from EVERY source of energy known to man; and means they can completely free themselves from all dependency on oil for energy.
Further, because all trackage can be electrified; the railroads can do something that NO other mode of transportation will ever be able to do. This is being able to run trains coast to coast non-stop without burning one drop of oil for energy!
BillT on Tue, 16th Apr 2013 1:05 am
James…where are all of the train components to come from?
Steel will NOT be made with wind or solar.
Billions of tons of passengers and freight will NOT be moved with wind or solar.
Trains were birthed by coal and will die with the death of coal.
James A. Hellams on Tue, 16th Apr 2013 7:02 am
In response to BillT, the trains can move freight and passenger loads with most efficient use of electric power.
The train is the MOST energy efficient means of moving freight and passengers on the planet.
For example, the BNSF Railway can achieve an energy efficiency of 750, or more, ton miles per gallon of fuel. This is weight in tons times miles per gallon. No other means of transportation will ever accomplish the feat. This same energy efficiency will apply to electrification. This will mean that the railroads will be able to make use of the electric power with the greatest energy efficiency possible.
The trains, for example, are able to move passengers and freight at a mere fraction of the energy required for aviation and highways.
Regarding the making of steel, this can be done with natural gas fired or electrically powered blast furnaces.
With respect to the energy sources you mentioned; wind, solar, and coal are only just a few of the energy sources for electric power. Other sources of energy for electric power are: natural gas, geothermal, hydroelectric, biomass, nuclear, ocean wave motion; and every other source of energy. Even lightning can be used for electric power, if a way can be found to store the billions of watts generated by the lightning strikes.
Arthur on Tue, 16th Apr 2013 7:31 am
“Steel will NOT be made with wind or solar.”
Yawn, please not that canard again. Bill does not want to learn new facts as he has already decided upon humanities Grand Finale.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_arc_furnace
Everthing is going down according to Bill’s dark grand vision. Any technology you can think of is ‘techie porn’.
BillT on Tue, 16th Apr 2013 10:54 am
Arthur, belief will not change reality. I worked in a steel foundry that made ‘Frogs’, those things where two tracks cross. I know the energy it takes to make the molybdenum steel they are made of. I know the energy it takes to line and reline and reline the furnaces and ladles and the energy to make the ceramics to line the furnaces, and the 16 inch diameter electrodes 6 feet long used to arc heat the scrap and ores to 1,800 degrees F. (And the energy to make those electrodes which are eaten away as they are used and have to be replaced frequently)
Steel is not just going out and melting some junk scrap and pouring it into a new form. It requires new ores from other countries. The Us does not have those ores.
Have you ever been to a big mining operation and seen the huge machines used to mine ores today? I doubt it or you would not say what you do.
I suggest you visit a big mine and a steel foundry that produces rails and then we can talk about solar and wind replacing those mining and smelting machines when they wear out or even powering them while they last.
Arthur on Tue, 16th Apr 2013 1:18 pm
Bill, I have seen all those things you mention: steel mills and 180 m rotating cement ovens in Holland, the (once) largest harbour in the world, Rotterdam, giant Ford and Peugeot car factories in Germany and France (worked for both), I have seen the largest man made mining machines in Germany near Bergheim, the Airbus-A380 construction site in Toulouse, all from the inside. I am with you that the entire picture is going to change and that there will be not much future for the organisations mentioned. For starters I see no future for cars and aviation and if they are removed from the equation, that will have great repurcussions on the demand for steel and energy.
“Steel is not just going out and melting some junk scrap and pouring it into a new form. It requires new ores from other countries.”
No it does not. My Italian car was towed away recently, before I swapped it for a slow, boring but extremely fuel efficient German car. The guy from the junkyard told me that every little screw is going to be reused, and not in birthday cakes, that’s for sure. Iron is iron.
Ford, Airbus, Boeing, Shell, Peugeot, Rotterdam Harbour are all on the way out.
The future is to companies like ASML in Holland that produces machinery that companies like Intel and Moterola use to produce microprocessors, or companies that produces machines (most from Germany) that are being used by Chinese companies to produce solar panels. Carbon/steel/cement/asphalt is out, lightweight solid state technology is in. Highways are out, datahighways are in.