Nate Hagens: Things are not going to be as easy over the next 40 years

28 Comments on "Nate Hagens: Things are not going to be as easy over the next 40 years"

Arthur on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 2:10 pm 



“Things are not going to be as easy over the next 40 years”

Understatement of the year.

Obviously, we could redefine growth, away from tons of kwh, steel, oil and cement towards for instance the number of lines of text or code written, creating a new virtual world of communication and knowledge. That kind of growth is very well in the cards.

P.S. maybe Nate could change his shirt every now and then 😉

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ055LzK86Q

BillT on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 2:56 pm 



“… will require far lower living standards. …”

BINGO! The leveling of 7 billion people raises some boats and sinks others. But eventually all will be at 3rd world levels, or less.

LT on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 3:05 pm 



“Nate Hagens: Things are not going to be as easy over the next 40 years”

Yes, it’s an understatement! In reality, it hasn’t been as easy since Katrina.

Life is not easy with $3.50 a gallon of gas today. In 5 years it will be $5.00 a gallon. And in 10 years, it will NOT be less than $5.00 a gallon…and son and so forth.

Also, in 5 years, college/university tuition will be something like $50,000 a year or more, making higher education one of the most profit business in the 21th century.

Barbarism under disguise with nice ties and fancy suits.

Where is real human civilization?

DC on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 3:27 pm 



Umm, LT, outside the US of Coal, most of us all-ready ARE paying $5.00 a gallon. Here its $5.74 per Gallon(imp)*, not that fictitious US ‘gallon’. Not that gas is sold here by the gallon anyhow. At that nearly 6 dollars a gallon, and its not even the summer consumption frenzy yet, the roads are still choked with filthy general motors shyt boxes, and people are still going to work and driving 20 miles to save 3 dollars on a plastic hair-dryer @ Wall-Mart.

No, I am not praising the ‘system’ or anything like that. But amerikans subsidy at the worlds expense is still in full operation. Sure, that dollar-a-gallon world is over with for the US, but y’all still are terrorizing the world to keep gas cheap for amerikan commuters and expensive for Chinas. The US needs to start taxing gas and stop thinking $3.50 is ‘expensive’ when in fact, its the cheapest in the ‘western’ world by a long shot, and has been for decades. Since amerikans never get out of the house much, cept to go wall-mart, I understand(sorta) why amerikans whine incessantly about $3.40 or so being such a hardship….

*Adjusted to US debt dollars.

Arthur on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 3:44 pm 



We in Europe currently pay 9$/gallon.

GregT on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 4:47 pm 



LT,

Higher education will be learning how to shovel manure to grow enough turnips to keep yourself from starvation. Investment bankers, real estate developers, software engineers and MBAs will have little demand in the not so distant future. If you are under thirty, now would be a good time to learn a trade and to get into good physical shape. Your survival will depend upon it.

GregT on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 4:57 pm 



Oh, and by the way, the average price for gas just north of the border in Vancouver BC is $6.17 per gallon.

Arthur on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 5:36 pm 



Greg, I foresee a great future for architecture in local building traditions, to replace all these 20th century functional buildings, into something more beautiful, like in centuries gone by:

http://www.ilotsacre.be/site/en/activities/activities.htm

And there is a great future for IT developers as well (low energy footprint activity with still endless potential for communication, marketing, logistics, energy saving, science, entertainment).

rollin on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 5:53 pm 



Gas prices too high? Put on some roller skates and hitch yourself to a jogger. It’s pretty easy to convince them that this will give them a better workout. Or you can pass yourself off as a free physical trainer, give them instructions along the way. Once you get to know a few you may even get where you want to go. No gasoline involved and best of all your helping others stay in good physical shape. 🙂

Kenz300 on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 6:52 pm 



Buy a bicycle, walk a little more or take mass transit a little more.

If you still need a car buy one that is fuel efficient and uses an alternative fuel source.

There are many choices of fuel efficient vehicles today from electric, biofuel, hybrid, CNG and LNG that have improved fuel economy.

Cities need to become more bicycle friendly.

Apartments and businesses need to provide places to lock and store bicycles.

Mass transit need to become more convenient.

There was a reason why trolleys used to run thru the center of all major cities. We need them to come back into our cities.

LT on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 8:18 pm 



Dear All-of-the-above commenters,

I’m not whining for myself! And I also know that gasoline prices in the US are still a lot lower than that of European and Canada. I myself is sufficient. I don’t drive much. I cook most of my meals. And I have 9 bicyles in my garage, 5 cheap one and 4 high dollar one!

I whine for the mass of the people who work for minimum wages and are struggling day-by-day to survive while rent cost, gas cost, car insurance cost, home insurance cost, food cost keep increasing incessantly.

Three things that keep people here in poverty forever are car, car insurance, health insurance. There are hardly sufficient public transportation in most US city. This forces people to have car to go to work, because they have no other choice.

Canada and Europe have good public transportation systems. This help people a lot! Therefore, people only worry about shelters and foods, not car nor gasoline like here in the US. I hope the US will have more public transportation soon.

I really feel sorry for the youngsters today as tuition skyrocketing beyond their means.

J-Gav on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 8:37 pm 



I’ve noticed Hagens has toned down his style since the days at The Oil Drum website, has become more diplomatic and low key. Probably a good idea since otherwise almost nobody in America would even bother lending an ear.

Unfortunate that even his sacrifices (not to mention those of millions of other, less fortunate and unknown people worldwide) will make the slightest difference in avoiding the inevitable ie collapse of the ‘post-modern,’ consumerist, growth-oriented, whatever-you-want-to-call-it mindset. This is what awaits the unsuspecting multitude and could turn ugly. Some US Minister once said that American people basically have two operational modes: total complacency or total panic … They’ll want somebody to blame it on – and they’ll find somebody. Get ready.

As for BillT’s “Third-world levels or less,” regarding those for whom it’s less, it’s pretty much game over and quite probably in the next 1-2 generations (three at most).

Arthur on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 8:41 pm 



“I really feel sorry for the youngsters today as tuition skyrocketing beyond their means”

Avoid college like the plague, an investment with bad returns, certainly in the US, where college debts of 100k are not unusual.

LT on Tue, 12th Feb 2013 11:38 pm 



“Avoid college like the plague, an investment with bad returns, certainly in the US, where college debts of 100k are not unusual.”

>> True! But unfortunately if you avoid college, then what do you put on your resume, when you go out to look for job?

BillT on Wed, 13th Feb 2013 1:39 am 



Arthur, IT is not energy immune. It takes more energy to make that toy than to use it. And that is why they too will disappear along with the personal car, etc. There will be no Apple or any other IT company churning out junk by the millions as there will be no consumers that can afford to buy them even if there was an internet to access.

BillT on Wed, 13th Feb 2013 1:40 am 



LT, I never went to college yet I worked for 50 years and made a good income because I had a skill. Skills are the replacement for idiots that go to college to study anything but the sciences, mathematics or medicine.

DC on Wed, 13th Feb 2013 2:03 am 



Mass transit in Canada is not as good as you might think. Some cities and in a few places, perhaps, but the overwhelming game plan has been car-dependant sprawl. Europe doing a good job, Canada, not really. Buses dont really count since they are just large oversized cars navigating Canadian car-sprawl. The environment is built for cars, and sprawl. Even the slightest effort to accommodate non-car modes is met with howls of protest. For the worst example of a defender of cars-only sprawl, Google or Yahoo Rob Ford.

Toronto must be so proud. Hes fought the tram system there at every turn and fought and belittle bikers and bike projects every chance he gets. His sponsors(see his last name) are pleased with the work he is doing keeping Canada safe for the private gas-burning car.

Feeling sorry for the poor forced to spend limited funds on car-dependant modes of living is laudable yes. But at the end of the day, its hard to feel that sorry for them. Why? what is probably the #1 goal of poor people? To make enough money to buy a new car and move someplace where there are less poor people. Someplace only accessible by cars of course. I dont blame people for this, but that how deeply the current system traps people, poor and rich alike. Only difference being, the rich can afford the hit, at least for the time being.

LT on Wed, 13th Feb 2013 4:24 am 



DC: “The environment is built for cars, and sprawl. Even the slightest effort to accommodate non-car modes is met with howls of protest.”

>> This is indeed the real black hole, the unescapable trap that Mr. James Kunstler has been talking about. This make me wonder:

1. Is there an intellectual community in the US? (probably not!)

2. If yes, then what can they do? Nothing? no attempt to escape of any sort? Just watching the titanic sinking slowly?

3. If the answer is a ‘no’ to 1) and 2) then, perhaps, one could only rely upon one’s own karma to save himself/herself.

DC on Wed, 13th Feb 2013 5:11 am 



There is no easy answer to this problem. I see it constantly when right thinking citizens, and even cities, Vancouver BC is a good, try to tone back car-dependency, even a little. But there are, as I said two problems with this. One is practical problem, the other, a….more human one.

The practical problem is its virtually impossible to …’de-covert’ North American car-sprawl cities into anything else. Its hugely expensive and nearly impossible besides. Success …varies wildly from place to place. This is feature not a bug. GM and the Oil companies supported every measure under the sun to ensure car-sprawl wasnt just ‘the’ thing in town, it was *only* thing in town. Undoing that now, after-the-fact, hard. Even with lots of funds and good intentions. You dont need to be an engineer to see why. Just look at the built enviroment its intentionally rigged design just screams out at you.

The other problem like I mention, is the human one. Canadians, yes in transit Vancouver howled and screamed in protest when some bridges added bike lanes and reduced the car ones. Some car-sprawlers also attacked a bike\ped bridge( a very well built one) as ‘a waste of money’. However, not one of the thought 3 Billion dollars was too much for this;

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/09/18/bc-port-mann-bridge.html

So, there are no easy answers. Even a collapse wont really ‘help’ any because we will lack the energy and resources to remove all that soon-to-be useless car-spawl detritus, much less de-contaminate any of it. And there will a *lot* of that needed. I really dont know…

DC on Wed, 13th Feb 2013 5:14 am 



Sorry for the bad editing, its late, tired!

Arthur on Wed, 13th Feb 2013 6:11 am 



DC, one of the main reasons why Europe has a relatively efficient public transport is because Europe has a much higher population density, which ensures that means of public transport have a higher occupation rate, with higher cost effectiveness.

Bill, currentl the internet consumes 1-2% of the total global electricity cost and that includes the energy cost for producing all the hardware. This has vast downward potential as big desktop and laptops are being replaced by tablets. Additionally new ARM processors that consume 0.1 watt are adopted by Apple, slashing energy cost with another factor of 10. In the future the total energy cost could amount to as little as 0.1% of current (not future) electricity needs.

http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2012/08/16/energy-requirements-of-the-internet/

Yesterday I accidently discovered that my provider offers television via the internet with hundred channels (not that I am going to use it much). But I could get rid of my large TV flatscreen (if not for my wife.lol). Quality is the same, as the ipad resolution is very high and then viewing angle is all that matters.

DC on Wed, 13th Feb 2013 6:29 am 



What is your point there Arthur? I know this. If you mean amerikan cities are not transit friendly because of low-pop-density ‘argument’. Yea,you hear that a lot over here. Of course, what people over here seldom ask anyone offering up that nugget of wisdom is, ‘How did they get so low-density and sprawly in the first place?’. Very few people want to open that particular can of worms here. I guess the idea is, since there was(at one point) lots of ‘land’ about, then the absolute best way to make use of it was to sprawl it out in every direction for no other reason than the auto-sprawl complex could imprison North Amerikans in 4000 pound glass and steel boxes and profit hugely from it. No one of course, was allowed to question the wisdom of this idea, and even today, very few do.

Now that the growth machine is finally sputtering to a halting stop, all the sprawl is a going to be biggest of liabilities in decades ahead for N.A. Over there, you wont have that problem really. N.A. used be all trains at one time, with a much lower pop density than Eruope ever had. At least until the boys over at GM decided trains had no future.

Right?

Arthur on Wed, 13th Feb 2013 6:31 am 



LT, I have a college degree, even specialized in renewable energy, but I never used it, because when I graduated Reagan and his merry band of neocons had replaced Carter, who had let escape Iran from the NWO. ‘Morning in America’ meant removing solar panels from the roof of the White House and all subsidies dried up for dolar and wind. All the money I made in my life was with skills acquired entirely by myself, combined with a steady view on what markets demanded. Never touched a single euro of handout. I am not rich, a little above Dutch average, but I have all I need. I work 30-50% of the time for clients, the rest is for non-commercial activities. I hope to continue this kind of freelance life until I am 80. My father worked until 61 in a permanent job and than sat for another 27 years in his chair. That’s not for me.

Would not have missed my college years though for anything, one of the best times of my life.

Arthur on Wed, 13th Feb 2013 6:36 am 



Yes DC, the population density argument does not apply to cities, I agree. Obviously the better transport system comes with higher taxes as well.

BillT on Wed, 13th Feb 2013 7:52 am 



Ah! That explains your techie bias Arthur. You strapped on the blinders and now refuse to take them off. You are in for a shock and I hope you have some usable skills like carpentry, farming or something necessary. The internet is not necessary for the world to operate. Not at all. The internet is a byproduct that will only last as long as oil. It is not ‘efficient’ as that 1-2% of energy will be directed to necessities, if it exists at all.

Arthur on Wed, 13th Feb 2013 10:03 am 



You are not adressing the arguments I made, Bill. Some 60% of the workforce in a developed society steps into the car in the morning, drives to the office, logs in onto the company network, and sits behind the monitor all day and processes information and occasionally uses the phone and has staff meetings. Using the internet you can do all this from home, completely eliminating the need for a car, a huge contribution to the required demand destruction.

All you propose is wandering off to the Philipines and watch the slow motion trainwreck from a ‘safe’ distance, obviously using the internet.lol Total doomerism is not good enough, we have to face the problem and then discern possibilities for the future, that is no doubt going to be post-materialistic and without growth, as defined in the past. Technology is good as long as it has a low energy footprint. Cars, aviation are out, glass fiber is the future.

GregT on Wed, 13th Feb 2013 7:29 pm 



Arthur,

Look at what most of those people in offices do for a living. They work in the service sector. They do not produce goods that people need for survival. They are money managers, insurance salesmen, developers, import/ exporters, wholesale/ retail, planners, bean counters, etc..

In a society with a much reduced energy input, most of those jobs will dry up. We will need many more “Indians”, not “chiefs”.

What caused ” civilization” was an excess of energy. If any biological organism expends more energy than it takes in, it eventually dies. If it takes in as much energy as it expends, it reaches stasis. If it can create more energy than it needs, it grows. Human beings are also bound to these “laws” of nature.

We are entering into a period of de- growth. Food is the most essential form of energy that we need to survive. Without an excess of food energy we will be be static or we will die.

Do you know where your food comes from? Does it require fossil fuel energy? What will replace that energy as oil runs out?

Here is a clue: Electricity will not power modern agriculture. Modern agriculture is heavily dependent on oil. Oil is going to run out.

Throughout history people have expended the vast majority of their energy producing or scavenging for the very thing that they get their energy from. Food.

In the future, we will be doing the same, with far more mouths to feed, less arable land, less water,
and a less hospitable climate.

LT on Thu, 14th Feb 2013 5:25 am 



Dear All-of-the-commenters above:

Thanks you all for your highly intellectual analysis.

Let put internet aside for a moment for it is just a luxury (but very helpful) thing as compared to water and food.
As human, we feel hungry every four or five hours, and need something to eat. Once food becomes scarce, the stomach will take control of the mind; meaning it will force the body to go and do something to obtain food. All other projects or ideas will vanish when your stomach is rumbling.

Therefore, as fossil fuel is windling down, will mega cities still have enough water (and food) to feed their population? As I understand, water do not flow on its own into mega cities. It must be pumped along the way. And it takes a lot of power to pump water into the cities from water reservoirs far away. Without oil, mega cities such as Los Angeles, Phoenix, Denver are dead traps, aren’t they?

Will sky-scrapers survive as fossil fuel diminishes? I doubt they will?

Water is the second most important thing after air. Without water one can’t grow food. Societies may not collapse without oil, but would collapse if lack of water.

Land could become useless if water is not available or water source is too far away.