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Page added on January 31, 2013
Iran crude oil exports rise to highest since EU sanctions
Iran’s crude oil exports in December leapt to their highest level since European Union sanctions took effect last July, analysts and shipping sources said, as strong Chinese demand and tanker fleet expansion helped the OPEC member dodge sanctions.
Exports rose to around 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, according to two industry sources and shipping and customs data compiled by Reuters on a country-by-country basis and corroborated by other sources and consultants.
The sources said they expected exports to dip in January from the December peak ahead of new U.S. sanctions.
Western sanctions aimed at curbing Iran’s disputed nuclear program halved Iran’s oil exports in 2012 from 2.2 million bpd in late 2011, leading to billions of dollars in lost revenue and a plunge in the Iranian currency.
But continuous robust demand from top buyer China and others such as India and Japan, as well as the purchase of new tankers, allowed the Islamic Republic to unexpectedly boost exports late last year.
The United States and the EU are hoping the economic pressure will force Iran to address international concerns about its nuclear program, which Tehran insists is for peaceful purposes but the West suspects is for making weapons.
Salar Moradi, oil market analyst at oil and gas consultancy FGE, estimated that Iran shipped more than 1.4 million bpd of crude oil in December and forecast that exports would remain between 1.1 million and 1.3 million bpd in the first quarter of 2013.
This represents an increase from a low point of less than 900,000 bpd in September and suggests monthly revenues worth approximately $4.7 billion based on December Brent prices.
“They (Iran) bought a number of tankers from China and can now do more deliveries … It’s taken some pressure off Iran and facilitated tanker traffic and we are seeing higher exports to China,” he told Reuters this week.
The second industry source said the rise in exports to near 1.4 million bpd was a result of traditional buyers finding new ways to secure shipping insurance.
But, like FGE, he estimated that they would fall slightly to around 1.3 million bpd in January.
CHINESE THIRST
Chinese data showed the country bought 593,400 bpd of Iranian crude in December, the second-highest level of daily imports in 2012, a rise that Chinese officials also attributed to an easing of shipping delays.
Previously, Iran’s tanker fleet had struggled to meet delivery schedules to China because EU measures in July barred Europe-based insurers from covering tankers that carry Iranian oil.
“China is saying let’s up the numbers because no one is doing anything about it, and it looks like Obama has made a political decision not to go to war with Iran,” said a senior source with a large independent trading house, referring to U.S. President Barack Obama.
Elena McGovern, oil and gas analyst at Business Monitor International, said: “The implications of preventing Chinese imports from Iran would be too damaging to the (U.S.-China) bilateral relationship. I would be very surprised if Obama were to take China to task on Iranian imports.”
India’s imports of Iranian crude were up 29 percent in December from November at around 275,000 bpd, according to tanker arrival data.
Tracking Iranian shipments has become increasingly difficult as companies have sought to conceal tanker movements from Western governments by turning off satellite signals.
Estimates of the Islamic Republic’s monthly crude exports can vary considerably and are frequently revised.
NEW SANCTIONS LOOMING
A fresh round of U.S. sanctions coming into force next month could cap Iran’s exports in the coming months as some buyers balk at the prospect of falling foul of the measures.
From February 6, U.S. law will prevent Iran from repatriating earnings it gets from its shrinking oil export trade, a powerful sanction that the U.S. officials say will “lock up” a substantial amount of Tehran’s funds.
“We continue to engage in close consultations with our international partners on U.S. sanctions with the objective of maintaining pressure on Iran to comply with its international obligations,” said U.S. State Department spokesman John Finn.
“Month-to-month variability in crude oil purchases is not unusual,” he added.
The International Energy Agency in December forecast a drop in Iranian exports to around 1 million barrels per day in late 2012 and early 2013.
But no matter how many rounds of sanctions are in effect, they are never watertight. Iran found creative ways to market its products and managed to sell more than 1.3 million tonnes of its fuel oil last summer, generating revenues equal to up to a third of its crude exports.
However, the latest data showed fuel oil exports have also taken a dip from the average 648,000 tonnes from July to October.
Exports fell to approximately 230,000 to 330,000 tonnes in December, Salar Moradi said, although he attributed this partly to higher domestic consumption in winter as utilities switch to fuel oil to replace gas used to meet heating requirements in the country.
In a more conservative estimate, data from a firm tracking Iranian fuel oil shipments showed that December exports were around 150,000 tonnes.
Condensate exports also fell by around 300,000 tonnes from November to 600,000 to 700,000 tonnes in December, data from the same firm showed. A Dubai-based analyst said condensate exports might come under further pressure as Iran’s biggest customer in the Middle East has decided to reduce its purchases.
Dubai government-owned Emirates National Oil Co (ENOC) has started importing condensate from Qatar to replace sanctioned Iranian oil and is close to finalizing deals with other producers, the company said on Sunday.
Still, some analysts think Iran will continue to find ways to safeguard against significant drops in its oil revenues.
“What we have seen is that when Iran is pushed to a do-or-die situation, they have looked for creative solutions to get around sanctions,” said McGovern.
“The system will always find a way to cope.”
11 Comments on "Iran crude oil exports rise to highest since EU sanctions"
BillT on Thu, 31st Jan 2013 4:11 am
And the Iranians will just trade in food, gold,and other commodities with China, India, Japan and other countries. They don’t need the Western banks when they have good customers willing to trade.
“The system will always find a way to cope.”
Concerned on Thu, 31st Jan 2013 9:25 am
China must be thanking the US for subsidized oil. I’m sure they can lean on Iran for at least a few percentage points off.
BillT on Thu, 31st Jan 2013 11:13 am
Yes, I’m sure they get a good discount for aiding Iran to sell oil. And I’m sure India and Japan are not paying full price either. But, it’s just good capitalist business.
Arthur on Thu, 31st Jan 2013 12:44 pm
The globalized West is clearly on the way out, as they shoot themselves in the foot with every move they make. Imposing an oilboycot in a very tight oilmarket is never a good idea. Now Iranian oil is lost, with Europe suffering the most, not the US. Not that I care, I love to see European dependency on Russia grow as a means to escape the NWO.
Yesterday Israeli jets were attacking Damascus, unprovoked. What are they thinking? They help creating a cleansed Sunni fundamentalist block, surrounding Israel, led by proto-fundamentalist Turkey, hostile to Israel. Not that I care, I would love to see Israel become a disarmed Ottoman province, like they have been for centuries.
2013 could be a year of real geopolitical change. The dollar could be dumped, Iran could be attacked or intervention in Syria could happen after a false flag chemical attack, set up by the Obama regime, using their mercenaries.
A peaceful implosion of the empire a la the USSR would be preferable for all, including the US citizens, but by no means a done deal. A military flight forward is just as likely.
dissident on Thu, 31st Jan 2013 6:44 pm
The elites are not all specimens of high intelligence. They are mostly in their positions by good luck or inheritance. We are seeing when the “deciders” are living in a bubble of delusion and how things are not going to get better because the elites engage in wishful thinking and are detached from reality.
The west is deprived of the sort of leadership it needs at this critical junction in history. Instead we have examples such as the UK planning to build two 60,000 ton aircraft carriers as if the good old days of empire are back again.
Picking fights with Iran and hoping to get at its massive gas reserves is another example of insanity. This gas will not save the EU. Just like frakked gas won’t save America. But instead of adapting to a changing world we have rabid attempts to promote BAU.
DC on Thu, 31st Jan 2013 8:57 pm
A better headline would be
‘Why the EU continues to allow its policy to be dictated by US corporate power’
Iran is no threat to the EU, or really anyone else for that matter. The only ‘European’ power that has en enduring hatred for Iran would be Britain. And thats mainly because the U.K. ~ to BP. Everyone else in the EU was perfectly happy trading with whoever pleased.
But of course, the US does not like the EU dealing with either Russia or Iran does it….
Arthur on Thu, 31st Jan 2013 9:15 pm
Some people in Brussels like to dream of ‘superpower Europe’, but in reality this would mean that the US could be an adversary for the third time, thanks but no thanks. From European perspective it is better to wait until the US runs out of steam and needs to severely downsize its ambitions and openly abandon its ‘benevolent hegemon’ (NWO/empire) self image. After the fall of the dollar things will change and a more independent EU foreign policy will be possible. Not that I expect Europe to become hostile towards America… au contraire… we might become benevolent towards America for a change, like an older brother 😉
DC on Thu, 31st Jan 2013 9:41 pm
The EU does not have to be an ‘adversary’ to the US. All it needs to do is eject the amerikan military occupation forces along with its Wall St ‘banks’. Of course, I recognize the problem here right away from the EU, or indeed anyone else perspective. The US considers for example, the EU buying gas from Russia, and on terms set between the 2 parties, to be ‘hostile’ behaviour. Of course, they dont phrase it that way publicly, even amerikans arent quite that clumsy. But there policy makes that crystal clear that is the actual case.
But again, thats the trap when dealing with amerikans, if say thanks but no thanks, or Yankee go home, we would rather not deal with you, to amerikan corporate power, that is tantamount to declaration of war.
Perhaps the best policy like you say, is to wait until the US collapses on itself. But no harm in helping them along eh?. And a good start for the EU would be to eject all US forces and there banks, in a friendly manner of course….
Again I do recognize the problem of dealing with a lunatic empire armed to the eyeballs with illegal WoMD that considers even the slightest form of independent thought or action to be cause for meddling or direct action. Still, It must be beyond irritating when the US sends sanctimonious low IQ twits like Clinton constantly to the EU to lecture them and tell them what the EU’s policy towards the rest of world is going to be, no?
Harquebus on Fri, 1st Feb 2013 1:51 am
The “West” hasn’t got any money anyway.
BillT on Fri, 1st Feb 2013 1:56 am
But, Dc, the City of London (not the city) is the banking center, NOT the US. So it would do no good to try to get rid of US banks. The US Fed keeps them operational.
And Arthur, what makes you believe that the EU is going to survive the next few yeas. For sure the Euro is dead. Yes, Russia will be your new dominating partner.
I see the world becoming five blocks by 2050:
1. Russia and what’s left of Europe and part of Central Asia.
2. China and the Asian countries allied with Australia & NZ.
3. North America (US,Canada,& Mexico) as an isolationist group.
4. The rest of the Americas, south of Mexico, a loose partnership/ trade group.
5. Africa and the Middle East the 5th block.
Arthur on Fri, 1st Feb 2013 12:16 pm
Bill, I agree that London is still very important and that there are basically two big ‘white blocks’, Anglosphere + continental Europe, where the former is dominated by the jewish-protestant alliance (dominated by the jews) that is in place since the Reformation gained a foothold in the Netherlands. Count Holland to Anglosphere as well, as every garbage man speaks better English than your average Italian banker. The protestant/capitalist revolution was exported/consolidated to/in Britain by the Dutch army in 1689 (Glorious Revolution) and at the same time from Leiden/Holland (I lived for years next to the Mayflower hotel) – Pilgrim Fathers to America (Peter Stuyvesant). The capitalist revolution (central banking, shares, corporations) began in Amsterdam and is unthinkable without the influx of jews that were kicked out of Spain. One of them was a Merano jew called Rossocampo, who translated his name in Roosevelt and settled in the Dutch city of Haarlem in 1620, but left soon after for America. Peter Stuyvesant tried to prevent the influx of jews as he wrote to the Staten: “The Jews who have arrived would nearly all like to remain here, but learning that they (with their customary usury and deceitful trading with the Christians) were very repugnant to the inferior magistrates, as also to the people having the most affection for you; the Deaconry also fearing that owing to their present indigence they might become a charge in the coming winter, we have, for the benefit of this weak and newly developing place and the land in general, deemed it useful to require them in a friendly way to depart, praying also most seriously in this connection, for ourselves as also for the general community of your worships, that the deceitful race—such hateful enemies and blasphemers of the name of Christ—be not allowed to further infect and trouble this new colony to the detraction of your worships and the dissatisfaction of your worships’ most affectionate subjects. ”
Don’t expect these words to be engraved on the facade of Stuyvesant High in present day America.lol Maybe he forefelt that one day these ‘deceitful people’ would telecrash two planes into buildings located a few hundred yards from his office at the Walstraat.
It is interesting that the entire City of London interests of Rothschildt are registered at an address in Amsterdam:
Concordia BV, Apollolaan 133-135 te Amsterdam.
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=8125413
You can find the house with google streetview.
@euro. There is no euro problem, there is a debt problem as well as diverging economies, but the situation is incomparable with that of US, for the simple reason that Europe has much lower international ambitions. It is certainly possible that some countries will abandon, but on the board European politics is committed to the euro. Even the Greeks are desperate to stay in, as it is a symbol of being a member of Europe. The euro is not going away any time soon. Europe can still as a last possibility start printing money, but the Germans so far have refused to allow that to happen. But that’s a buffer waiting to be used. And… there too many parties who do not want to see the euro go (Russians and Chinese and others), simply to drive a wedge between Europe and America and have a means to weaken the role of the dollar. Europe so far is not seen as a threat, in contrast to the US.