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Page added on January 29, 2013
Why EROEI Means Mining in Space will Never Work
The prospect of exploration in space for minerals has been the substance of science fiction, but in the face of a rapid depletion of non-renewable resources, and a likely downturn in funding for space projects in general, in these times of austerity, “mining asteroids” has emerged as an apparently serious proposition. Two companies, “Planetary Resources” and “Deep Space Industries”, have now unveiled their plans to look for precious metals, such as gold, platinum, rare earth elements, on asteroids. It is believed that water, which is costly to send up in space, might be present as water-ice, and so might be converted to rocket fuels to support space vehicles, or even breathable oxygen, for the new industry. It is postulated that a space fuel-station might be in operation by 2020, and from where, fuel such as hydrogen could be transferred down to earth orbit to refuel commercial satellites or spacecraft.
Deep Space Industries intends to send out smaller (25 kg mass) vessels – “Fireflies” – fitted with low-cost CubeSat components to explore asteroids for potential bounty, and their launching-costs would be brought down by being launched with heavier, commercial communications satellites. It is anticipated that the first launch will take place in 2015, and that the fireflies will be sent on a journey of 2-6 months, equipped with telescopes that can sense from remote the presence of particular elements. Having targeted a likely source-rock, larger craft – “Dragonflies” – would next be sent out, on round trips of 2-4 years, to physically recover up to 70 kg of material.
It is thought that only by mining resources in space, can permanent space-development be made economically viable. Initially, Deep Space Industries intends to sell observation platforms in orbit around Earth to prospecting services, as the industry opens-up on a free-market basis, but that actual mining will be underway during the next decade. There are thousands of asteroids that pass fairly close to Earth, which it is considered might be ripe for harvesting. Space-tourism also appears to be another potential income stream.
This is very much a case of playing the longer game, and it might be decades before investors get their money back, if they ever do, e.g. platinum now costs around $1,600 an ounce, and in comparison, a planned mission by NASA to bring back 60 g of material from an asteroid to Earth is expected to cost about $1bn http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17827347. Since this represents the price of 18 tonnes of pure platinum, the Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) is very far into the red, given the likely quantity of asteroid material to be recovered. Hence, the case for a viable industry on this basis is not compelling. Most likely, whatever materials that are recovered in space, would be best used in space, so that their value is increased by virtue of not having to transport them from earth, e.g. for their use in space stations. That said, the likelihood of establishing a self-sustaining space-based, space-industry must be questionable, in terms of the energy and other resources, including actual metal extraction and device fabrication, that would be required.
As far as mining gas and oil on asteroids is concerned, in terms of EROEI the notion is no more than a pipe-dream, and rather we must confront the falling EROEI for such resources as already pertains on earth, since the emerging “hole” in conventional crude oil and gas production must increasingly be filled by unconventional versions, that are more laborious and thus more expensive to provide.
15 Comments on "Why EROEI Means Mining in Space will Never Work"
econ101 on Tue, 29th Jan 2013 12:14 am
And your point is?
Arthur on Tue, 29th Jan 2013 3:05 am
Yeah, we all love startrek, but the space age is largely over, at least the spectacular side of it. Mars landing in 2025, sure. GPS/Galileo will (continue to) work, as well as communication satellites, but that will be about it. There will be no replacement for the ISS. Currently the Russians are the only ones capable of human payloads. Eventually funds will dry up. Peak Space was 1969. Contact/Jody Foster was a fantasy. Space mining is a joke. Icbm’s are crumbling in their silos, thank god. Obama wants to renew them to the tune of 235 billion. Let’s hope that the dollar… Ah well…
GregT on Tue, 29th Jan 2013 3:12 am
I think that you are spot on Arthur.
Makati1 on Tue, 29th Jan 2013 3:15 am
Until we find some of those ‘lithium crystals’ we are locked onto this planet. We blew our chance to go to the stars when we killed Kennedy and started to burn oil like alcoholics on a binge. Now we only have the left overs and they won’t even keep our current civilization going much longer. Dream on all you techies…
BillT on Tue, 29th Jan 2013 3:16 am
Until we find some of those ‘lithium crystals’ we are locked onto this planet. We blew our chance to go to the stars when we killed Kennedy and started to burn oil like alcoholics on a binge. Now we only have the left overs and they won’t even keep our current civilization going much longer. Dream on all you techies…
cipi604 on Tue, 29th Jan 2013 3:20 am
Mining in space does not work under the actual industrial infrastructure, but to say that fatal word “never” is a big mistake. Never say never.
DC on Tue, 29th Jan 2013 7:58 am
There is a tiny chance those fellows behind those efforts truly believe space mining will save the Earth. (From what exactly is not clear). It would be far more cost effective to just wind-down TBTF capitalism once and for all. That is to say, use a lot less resources than we are currently. Which is going to happen anyhow, gracefully or not.
However, it is more likely it is just another scam. The thinking behind it is, people believe in the progress\technology myth so strongly that the schemes numerous shortcomings will never be examined very closely. Which of course, is the hallmark of ANY successful scam, whether the endless suburban housing bubble-sprawl scam, the hydrogen car scam, or the ‘Space’ the final frontier scam. At least not before the cheques are cashed…
Norm on Tue, 29th Jan 2013 8:15 am
OH C’MON ITS DILITHIUM CRYSTALS EVERYBODY KNOWS THAT. Lithium Crystals don’t have the necessary energy to attain warp drive. Has to be DIlithium, only found on planets where the women wear tinfoil brazierre’s. Cheeze Louize do I have to tell you people EVERYTHING? Oh OK I will tell you one other thing. Any company that is seeking investor capital to mine the asteroids, just wants to, oh wait a minute, I want to sell you a bridge, that one, over there, the big red one, here’s my price ….. its a good deal….
Kenjamkov on Tue, 29th Jan 2013 10:54 am
The only way they can make money at space mining is to mine and manufacture things that cost us too much to send up. There is no money in sending anything from space back. They need the manufacturing in space as well as the mining.
Just a dream, not gonna happen.
Rusty Baker on Tue, 29th Jan 2013 11:07 am
LOL! Oilprice.com is one of the most biased oil websites on the net. This article is blatant propaganda, Joseph Goebbels would’ve been proud of the author of this article. Those communists masquerading as environmentalists are surely going to prevent the asteroids from being mined. I can already hear the Marxists saying “We need to protect those asteroids from the ravages of capitalism.”
That is precisely why I supported 2012 Republican Presidential candidate Newt Gingrich. He talked about setting up a space colony on the moon, and presumably, proceed to mining for minerals and oil on it. Gingrich would’ve emphatically supported the asteroid mining program had he won the American presidential election. The Obama re-election was rigged(but that’s a whole other rant). According to the latest scientific estimates, asteroids and the moon combined could potentially hold 1500 years worth of crude oil at current rates of consumption!
God willing, during the next election in 2016, a conservative Republican will be voted into the executive office, thereby passing legislation and funding for an asteroid mining program. It is imperative for Americans to mine and drill the asteroids before the damn Russians and Chinese do.
This article has it all wrong. According to my most recent analysis of asteroid mining EROEI, it would be reasonable to suggest that ratios of 1:3000 are feasible–provided that environmental regulations are done away with. That’s right, folks, you invest 1 barrel’s worth of oil to get 3000 barrels back! The USA could easily pay off the trillions of dollars in deficit spending and still have trillions, perhaps quadrillions, left over. We wouldn’t have to be beholden to the whims of the Islamic terrorists, and gasoline would be virtually free.
BillT on Tue, 29th Jan 2013 3:15 pm
Thanks Norm. I was waiting to see if there was a Trekie on board. I know that it was dilithium, I heard Scotty say it often enough in all those TV shows and movies, but put in ‘lithium’ to see what would happen. I was ‘corrected’ by you. ^_^
cipi … in this case, never IS the correct word. Sorry. We will be lucky to keep the space station operational in the next decade and those satellites are also wearing out. Eventually they will not be replaced.
GregT on Tue, 29th Jan 2013 3:59 pm
And all of those satellites that are wearing out, will one by one, return back to where they came from, the earth. Indiscriminately bombing the planet at any time, or any place.
The epitome of human ingenuity.
Qev on Tue, 29th Jan 2013 8:32 pm
Wow, okay, oil and gas on asteroids? Article author’s credibility just went kablooey. XD
Arthur on Wed, 30th Jan 2013 6:30 am
Rusty, I would love to see Newt Gingrich wearing an oil rig helmet, drilling for oil on an asterroid, like a Bruce Willis. 1500 years worth of oil, you say? Well, here is the trouble… it costs 20,000$ to bring 1 kg into orbit. So how do you plan to transport ship loads of oil from space down to earth? Let me guess… using the tested method of beaming?
Arthur on Wed, 30th Jan 2013 6:33 am
Solar energy from space, same story, not feasible, eroei:
http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2012/04/03/solar-energy-from-space